Species, establishmentarians. Ted cruz is thinking about his strategy beyond the primaries. This week, the texas senator kicks off his tour of key southern states, and he announced the endorsement of the influential evangelical leader. All this has donald trump headlining the headlines again. Today the donald got love from russian president vladimir putin. He seemed impressed with his fellow alpha male when speaking to reporters after his annual and always delightful press conference in moscow. He is a very colorful person, talented without any doubt, but it is not our affair to to determine his worthiness. That is up to the United States voters but he is the leader in , the race and wants to move to a different level of relations to more solid, deeper relations with russia, and how cannot russia welcome that . We welcome that. As for the internal political issues and the terms of speech which he uses to raise his popularity, i repeat, it is not our affair to evaluate them. John all right. With ted cruz and donald trump only getting stronger and with none of the more mainstream republican candidates becoming a dominant force in this nomination fight, how likely is it do you think that throughout this entire race there will never be a dominant establishment frontrunner . Mark right now i would say that we could end up with a twoperson race, and i think the odds are pretty good that trump and ted cruz have resources have a vision of how , they will get delegates, an earlystage strategy and longerterm strategy. They also have high poll standing. No one else has that. As long as the four establishment candidates are in the race and sniping at each other than at donald trump and ted cruz they may through a , prisoners dilemma cause all four to fail. John theres no doubt the Republican Party has changed a lot. This is something we have talked about on the show for eight year now, right . So it is possible that everything will be different. The Republican Party is still the largest bloc of its voters are still main street conservatives and not grassroots conservatives. I cannot believe, especially as the fear of donald trump and ted cruz rises, that there will not be some coalescing around an establishment candidate eventually. I dont think it is 100 likely. I dont think it is guaranteed. Mark if you look at how well positioned donald trump and ted cruz are, it may be that they are so far ahead in momentum that they become basically the equivalent with the norm of the establishment candidate who wins early. Its not just one of them. If it was one of them, the math would work out that an establishment candidate had to be in there. You say the establishment is the dominant force, im not sure it is. If you look at a lot of these national and state polls and add up bush, rubio, christie, and john kasich scores and you dont get to a big percentage, donald trump and ted cruz are rising and wellfunded. John it may be that the establishment is dead. I say it still more likely than not that there will be an establishment candidate around whom the mainstream vote coalesces. I think it is only barely more likely than not. Theres no doubt that there is a chance that this could happen. Mark we will explore how this establishment doomsday scenario could play out on the calendar a little bit later in the program, but first, a secret newspaper owner case cracked. The Las Vegas Review journal uncover the name of the previously unnamed individual who secretly purchased their company a week ago, so who is this masked media mogul who has been unmasked . None other than of the most one famous and richest person in all of sin city, Sheldon Adelson and his family. The family confirmed finally to the review journal what has been rumored for several days, that they are the new owners of the biggest newspaper in all of nevada, which is an important early voting state in the president ial nomination, calling it a Financial Investment as well as an investment in the future of the las vegas community. John, Sheldon Adelson is involved in politics a lot of ways, and he has yet to pick a candidate in this president ial race. Does his purchase of the paper mean anything for 2016 . John not much. Sheldon adelson is an important figure in politics, but mostly an important figure in the casino business. He cares about money, money, money most of all. This will matter a lot in terms of advancing his business interests in vegas, which are huge. He hopes to be growing. The newspaper, its editorial page, now will espouse his views. Who he sides with will get the endorsement of this paper. I just dont think that newspaper endorsements matter this much in this day and age. Mark it may not do anything before the caucuses, but it is a swing state in the general election, and you can imagine coverage having an impact over time there, and it is also a dominant paper. John the main paper in the state. Mark the main paper in the state. If Sheldon Adelson were buying the des moines register, i think people would say regardless of whether there is a change in policy, that it is something to watch. And it is going to be watched by the people in the state. John there is no doubt about that. If this paper turns into a newspaper web version of fox news where everything they do is seen through the prism of Sheldon Adelson, who cares about republican policy and israel, there might be some of that in the general election, a small effect. On the democratic side of the president ial contest, Bernie Sanders rolled out two major endorsements today ahead of the next democratic debate in New Hampshire on saturday night. One is from the Communications Workers of america union, the second is from democracy in america, the liberal Grass Roots Group that grew out of howard deans 2004 president ial bid. Today in washington, Sanders Campaign also boasted that his campaign has collected more than 2 million contributions, a big number, mostly from small donors, and yet, despite some of this good news for Bernie Sanders there is still a wide , perception in the Political Class that he is doomed in the democratic nomination contest, that he has faded and will not get there. Mark my question for you is how , genuinely dangerous is the conventional wisdom to Bernie Sanders . Mark in some ways it is the biggest danger to him right now. Voters are sophisticated, particularly in earlyvoting states. The democratic race is basically over. Like any underdog, sanders needs people to believe that he can be beating goliath. Right now even with this good , news, hes not getting that positive reinforcement. He needs a good debate. You know full well that his campaign is worried about exactly what we are talking about, because they send out press releases all the time trying to combat the notion that this race is not over. I still think he can beat her in iowa and New Hampshire and have his moment to try to beat her. The other thing hurting him is these national polls, losing so badly, just as barack obama was losing. If he keeps his focus and can convince people he can win in iowa and New Hampshire he can , get back in it, but the perception is hurting him now. John there are two things, iowa and New Hampshire are everything for him, to ignite enthusiasm. That perception is important, just to be able to get those college kids to come out, you have to believe that he can win or they wont turn out. That is one place. The second place will be in New Hampshire, where independent voters are a huge, important factor up there. If they all decide the race is over that will kill bernie , sanders. He needs those voters out there for him. Mark coming up, the things that donald Trump Supporters say. But first, a deeper dive into the republican establishments worst nightmare. We are back with that in 60 seconds. In the last 48 hours, we have been seeing the washington establishment in full panic. They are terrified. The last thing they want in the world is for conservatives to unite, and so we are seeing attacks coming from every direction, as the old military metaphor says if youre not taking flak, youre not over the target. At this point, it is apparent that our opponents are very concerned. Mark that was ted cruz speaking to reporters in nevada earlier today. We already discussed whether it is possible that the conventional wisdom is wrong and that in fact there will be no consensus establishment candidate competing with donald trump and ted cruz emerging from the first three voting states and we could end up with , something the establishment would hate, a twocandidate race between donald trump and ted cruz. We wanted to test that. We wanted to see how worried the establishment should be. Here is what we call our hypothetical establishment doomsday scenario. Starting in the first voting stake, iowa. Has ted cruz is leading the field, double digits, then donald trump, ben carson and other establishment antiestablishment candidates. If they stayed where they are, the top three would be antiestablishment candidates, three donald trump, ted cruz, ben carson. The would lead establishment to a shutout. Rubio is pushing there, particular john kasich, bush and christie, all pushing strong there. Look at the latest polling there by wbur. It shows that christie and rubio are in second place behind trump, who still has a big lead. Ted cruz is an a close fourth place, and his campaign is bullish on his prospects with the establishment candidates, all dividing the vote, maybe finishing in second. I think if donald trump has a rough start, ted cruz could finish first under some scenarios. That means that ted cruz comes out of iowa with momentum, he leapfrogs marco rubio and christie, trump keeps his lead, ted cruzond first, second. That means the associate candidate gets thirdplace, and so they now have an iowa shutout, third in New Hampshire. We go to South Carolina, and South Carolina historically voted for an establishment candidate every time in the republican race, but this time it could be different. Look at the latest fox news poll, trump with a big lead there, 35 , carson is at 15 , he is holding on to a lot of his support there, he has got a fervent following there. Then ted cruz and marco rubio are in third place. Ted cruz has the momentum of his iowaNew Hampshire finishes, and carson hangs onto his supporters in South Carolina that means that marco rubio, jeb , bush, Chris Christie, john kasich are shut out here. The final tally would be something that would terrify the republican establishment. This scenario would have no one, no christie, no marco rubio, no jeb bush, no establishment candidate no matter how high they finish in New Hampshire, finishing in the money anywhere but that one state. That will not be a very good record as the campaign heads south to the socalled primary on march 1. John this scenario is far from , farfetched, so what do you say about this fleshing out of the prospects of the establishment after three states voted . They would have no one to vote for except donald trump or ted cruz. John i would say that it is a totally plausible scenario. The second thing, there are some alternative scenarios that are also plausible. One of them is that iowa and New Hampshire where candidates get , hot, marco rubio finishes in iowa or second place, then he gets a rocket ship ride out of iowa and wins New Hampshire. Totally possible. In New Hampshire, Chris Christie finishes second in New Hampshire, or trump tumbles in some way after finishing not just in first or second, but finishes third somehow in iowa, and the wind is knocked out of his sails. Hard to see it, but not impossible. All i am saying is that there are other things that can happen here, right . This scenario is totally plausible, but for all of the weakness we talk about, i think we are more bearish on marco rubio than many people are. We have talked about various ways that marco rubio has not become the establishment figure. If you look at that scenario, and you are an establishment republican you can understand , why many are attracted to marco rubio. He is the one with the path that could break up that antiestablishment doomsday scenario. Mark which of the states will he do second or better in . John again, if he finishes as your thesis has been, a strong, establishment third in iowa, he could then bounce out of iowa and finish second in New Hampshire. Mark or maybe even first. John that is the marco rubio scenario. I understand why an establishment republican would like marco rubio for that reason. Mark two big questions. How durable are donald trump and ted cruz right now . Could one or both of them have a collapse . I dont think so. There are fundamentals in terms of resources, message, following, and delegate strategy is so powerful, i dont think so, but the other question is say that our scenario plays out, could it be at that point that the establishment says, we are betting all on one guy, everybody is getting out, and to heck with momentum. Very few delegates have been chosen. We are going to fight on. We will start running favorite sons, if we need to. We will do whatever we need to. I think that is possible, but ted cruz and donald trump are momentum candidates, and they have momentum now, and they know how to take momentum and keep it going. John they also are two canadas most impervious to turning in debate performances. They are the two most impervious to screwing up in a debate. You will see these candidates desperate to make a moment where those guys because they have momentum on the ground they can play four corners offense in the debates. Donald trump, it does not matter what he does on the debate stage. His strength maintains. And ted cruz is a good debater. Mark as panicked as the establishment was, this might make it worse. Next what came first the chicken , or the egg . What i learned about the puzzle from donald Trump Supporters yesterday after this word from our sponsors. Mark interesting thing happened to me yesterday. I went to a donald trump rally in mesa, arizona. Before he came in, i spent some time talking to Trump Supporters who were very enthusiastic to say the least. I chatted with them about why they like donald trump and what they were doing there at the event and why they thought he , was winning and whether they thought it was possible that the republican establishment could stop donald trump. Then donald trump got up to speak and it was deja vu all over again. If there is one thing we know about this very unpredictable front runner is that his fans know how to stay on message even before they hear the candidate deliver the message in person from the stage. The reason is because they have heard it all before again and again and again. What are you doing here today . America greatng again. Make America Great again. We are really getting more and more on board with donald trump. The only reason i came here was because of donald trump. If it was anyone else, i would not have showed up. What are some adjectives you would use . Bold. Forceful. Strong. Strong. We need strong people. We need sharp people. He is a businessman. I am a worldclass business guy. Capable of handling the country as a business. Thats the thinking we need in this country. Why are you here . Im here because we are 19 trillion in debt. We have 19 trillion in debt. 19 trillion is too much. He is not politically correct, and im ok with that. I think i admire that he is not politically correct. It is not politically correct, but it will save everybodys life. What are some issues that he has staked out positions on that are attractive to you . Immigration. We will stop illegal immigration. We have to figure out what , the hell is going on. He will make the military strong again. We will make the military so strong. That stands alone by itself, and the fact that he says he will take care of the veterans. We will take care of our vets. We are going to take care of them. Being a military man, im sick and tired of the way the v. A. Treats us veterans. Our veterans are being mistreated so badly, it is horrible. I noticed that when we traveled to europe they used to , think of us in such high regard. They had respect for our country. Now its like were looked down upon. We dont have that anymore. We are not respected by anybody anymore. I think he would intimidate other countries. I think its time we have to take that power back. The message is, we dont want to let other people take advantage of us. He doesnt have any money from some bunch of hooligans. He is funding himself. Ok . I amelf funding, putting up my own money. He is not traditional. Hes not obliged to anybody else, the type of person we need to change things. Have you seen him in person before . No, we cannot wait. Sorry. Very excited. Experience had an like that in my whole career going to a political event. All the interviews took place before the rally. They like him for the exact message he is projecting. They have internalized it and they believe in it. It is why trump says he has a movement, because you have a leader and likeminded citizens. Varietyere have been a of times where i thought donald trump reminded me of pat buchanan. Pet began and had a similar thing in 1996, where he had a pat buchanan had a similar thing in 1996, where he had a great stump speech, and the people knew there was a cultural war going on and they would say the same thing. That always analogized to the grateful dead, where people show up in the spirit of, they not only know the songs and all the lyrics, but theyre overjoyed to be there in a carnivallike setting. Mark not everyone i spoke to agreed with everything donald trump has said. Sometimes they admit that he goes a little too far. When i as