srk not donald trump strength but the weakness of the rest of the field, the fact that no one in the party yet has figured out a way to bring him back to earth. I always thought trump would have a field within the party, but i thought someone would step forward and figure out how to engage in a way that would take him down. John i would say that trump costs strength, the trumps strength, the dynamic with which he says more and more preventively provocative things offensively provocative things, that he could say some of the things he said and have them not hurt him at all, contradictorily make him stronger, it blows my mind. The other surprising thing is Bernie Sanders. It seems obvious now why he has had such a good run. No one off no one else in the as anhas taken off alternative to Hillary Clinton. After watching him for years on cable tv and on the hill, i never thought he would have this ability to communicate a message in a personal way that he has. We were among virtually everyone else in thinking he was a curio candidate, not a joke, but the idea that he would ever give clinton any kind of run for her money we laughed it off. Obvious in retrospect, but it seemed obvious pretty quickly once he started to take off. That he could catch fire in that kind of cranky grandfatherly way. It was like, oh, of course, but no one predicted it. Mark what or who was the biggest flop of the past year . John undoubtedly, i would say on the republican side scott walker. Be ony who was going to paper and incredible candidate. Ofning a consecutive number elections, taking on the union, having conservative credentials. People said he was the front runner for a while and then he just completely collapsed. The other person i think had a horrible 2015 was rand paul. I thought for a time he could he the 4 first state because had a niche as not just a libertarian but someone who talked about solving problems like not just immigration but someone who had a sense of the moment of the party and the country, more broadly, unless he stages some huge comeback in the next month, he has become someone barely considered in the discussion. Not only the question of could he win, but hes not even getting enough of the vote to affect the outcome. John the assumption was he would start with his fathers packers but have broader appeal. He has a smaller share of the vote than his father had in 2012. I think it is conceivable he could end up being a less consequential figure than his father who was, in many ways, a bona fide crank. Mark the biggest flop of the year is the republican field, which was touted as the strongest in generations. I said from the beginning it was the most overrated field. I stand by that. It has a lot of people all nice with some strengths, but the notion that this field overall is strong is ridiculous, as manifested by the fact that donald trump, for all his strength, should not be alone at the top of the polls. John and that one of the biggest political fact of the year was the rise of the antiestablishment outsider candidate. Theres no world in which donald trump, ben carson, ted cruz, get 60 of the vote if there was any potent one or two establishment candidates. Those guys could not take up as much space as they have all year long. As you know, our nations Political Landscape is an evolving thing. Lets talk about what you think was the biggest change to occur in our political universe in 2015. The absolute inability of the establishment of the Republican Party to have a say, not to be dominant, not to be in control. A trend you saw with the rise of the tea party and social media, but the establishment went from being concerned about the way things were going to ending the year helpless to stop trump and cruz commented of candidates the establishment does not want, from ending up as the Party Nominee helpless to stop , two candidates the establishment does not want, from ending up as a Party Nominee. Been the whole process has turned upside down. The Democratic Party is behaving like the public in party of old and the Republican Party is behaving like the Democratic Party of old. Theres a little world of bizarro world factor. Although Hillary Clinton has had moments where she has been tested and Bernie Sanders is a surprising strength, the truth is as we come to the end of the year, Hillary Clinton is still the most likely almost certain democratic nominee not certain, but almost and still likely the next president of the states, and that kind of glide path is not usually how it happens. And trump magnifying something that has always been true, which people into the year thinking raising big money would be a dominant force in the nomination process. For trump, it has not been. He has barely raised any money, barely spend any money of his own, and he is a dominant force because he is able to go on television, and nobody in this race is able to match his way to drive news however he wants. John there was the idea that the super pac was going to transform the entire process, and so far, they have done nothing to change the tide of the race as far as i can see. Mark all right, we know new years resolutions will be made and most of them will be broken, but theres a whole lot we dont know about this coming year, 2016. Over the next couple of months, the question is which of our political storylines are you most eager to see unfold beyond who wins the primaries and caucuses . Hes a very polarizing figure, but whatever you think, barack obama is coming to the end of a historic eightyear run in the white house. He has gotten more done in the period when he was supposed to be a lame duck than anyone anticipated. He has done it and sometimes controversial ways three executive actions going. What can he not get done . He made it clear at his Closing Press conference that he said he was going to leave it all on the field. Its clear he does not want to be just a time server in this last year. To me, how barack obama ends his time in office, if hes able to put a few more points on the board and maybe one or two more legacy items that is a pretty interesting line to me historically. Mine are what happens when the negative ads start this coming month and who runs them and are they effective . In crowded fields, sometimes negative ads cancel out the attacker and attackee, and someone is able to sneak up the middle. The other is bill clinton has not been a very present figure in this race so far, but does he step more to the fore . And all of the republican candidates have been more lowprofile than people like Hillary Clinton, bill clinton, evenlle obama, laura bush,. Things to watch as we go forward. When we come back, we will gaze into the future, into our crystal ball, make some new years predictions of our own. John mark lets have some fun now with new years productions. Theres one safe thing to say its going to be a wild year. What do you see mr. Trumps strategy being, and how effective do you think it will be . John i think its more tactical than strategic, but i predict donald trump will not run a negative ad, not one. He will either bulldoze his way to the nomination without either havingto without ever to, or he will crumble in some unpredictable or unpredicted way, but i dont think he wants to spend the money and i think he knows if he runs negative, he turn quickly into a fully. I think we are never going to see a negative ad from donald trump. Mark its good to end the year with one of us saying the single dumbest either of us has said. I dont think thats right. I think he is going to dominate the news. Come january, we are getting close to iowa, and everybody is going to be like equal chance to be on the news. Trump knows he can dominate the news and blot everybody out. I think you are going to see big nts, endorsements, once stunts, provocative statements that allow him to lead the news every night, and that will make a huge difference. I think we agree about this on the night of the iowa caucuses, if ted cruz wins and Donald Trumps second or third, the biggest story coming out is going to be donald trump mark . Mark mark the emperor has no close. John yes, walltowall, but trump will still be the focus. Any day trump would be knocked out of the top spot, that would be it, and i dont think it will happen. It is an incredible piece of power that he commands. I think hether thing will do is i think he will continue to talk about the that, but my prediction is he will keep his National Poll standing, no matter what happens in the early state holes, that he will keep his National Poll standing and always have that as a talking point. Possibly right. How about ted cruz and marco rubio. We talked about cruz a second ago, but lets focus on those two who have spent the last bit of the year tangling with each other. What is your prediction for their strategies and how effective they will be . Will keep up cruz momentum in iowa and also surge in new hampshire, but if his positive upside continues nationally, you will see him cruise and a second and maybe onser to trump, depending what happens. The other thing i think will happen is that rubio, if he not,nues to attack cruz or he will move back to win the establishment vote. I think you will start to see him flex back as needed. John one of the things you are seeing a little bit with cruz already and you will see a lot more come january is his attempt to try maybe with some play in new had, as you suggested, but i think you see him focus on. Hat happens after iowa focusing on South Carolina and southern states. He is tipping his hand and i think he will spend time down there. Especially as his lead grows in iowa. I think that is a smart play for him. You may be right about rubio and the establishment leg, but the thing that has mystified us for weeks as to why he is so fixated starting to im come to the conclusion that whatever confusing strategy it is part of, there is also becoming a really intense personal animosity between them, and he may not be able to unlock himself from what i think is a mystifying strategy, again, just because he is starting to dislike cruz. And the people around him think it is working, which i do not think there is much evidence it is. Mark the other thing youre going to see is cruzs super pac , which is sitting on a lot of money you will see them start to spend it and shake up the race and a lot of ways. That is a super pac that has a lot of money and a lot of ideas, reinforcing television messages with social media. I said aboutr what negative ads and donald trump that you said was stupid . Areink cruz super pacs going to run a lot of negative ads. What is going to be atcinating is to see cruz times has been a little bit off his game. Rubio has not in terms of style, and i think we will see some Opposition Research come out against rubio that will test his ability to continue to be calm, cool, and collected in the Pressure Cooker that will be the run up between now and the iowa caucus. John the research backed by paid negative media. Last 1 Hillary Clinton. What do you see about her strategy coming out of the next month . John the Clinton Campaign has been focused all year long, and people have been not as aware of this as they should be they have been focused on iowa to the exclusion of almost all else. They essentially brief reporters and said they are thinking of the whole nomination as a onestate battle because they knew if they could beat sanders in iowa, they would be home free. I think you are going to see in this next month and extraordinary amount of focus trying to replicate what barack indid in 2008 and iowa iowa. They understand. They say the whole thing could be over for them on february 2 if they win that iowa caucus. I think i have a reasonable chance of getting that done. Im not saying the whole thing is over. Im not predicting she will win, but i think there will be a show of strength. The muscle they will read into that is going to be evident, and it has a good chance of paying off. Think you are going to see her bring a major circus into iowa, not just her husband and celebrities, but you will try to see some events that bring her close to the ground. The candidatelso herself, being close to the ground. John how do you think sanders can and will counter that . Mark he has got to get College Students to caucus at home. You do not want all of the College Students caucus and in University Towns because theres only a certain number of delegates you can win, no matter how overwhelming. To go back to where they live all over the state in order to try to spread out the support they have. The other thing is he needs luck. He needs Hillary Clinton to make a mistake or the things in the news to play to his strength. She is going to bring in a lot of force, and she needs to win some news cycles. All of these late debates matter, but republicans have two debates before iowa and democrats have only one. Almost the single most , to see howevent sanders performs when he feels he is in a mustwin, mustscore point situation. We cannot say this often enough if you are in washington, d. C. , you can now catch us on the radio. Just go to 99. 1 fm at 5 00 p. M. Eastern time. Do you know your schedule right now . If i ask you what you were doing today, would you know . Where are we going now . I know im going to announce the program on syria. And i dont know where were going. Guess who played a Football Game last night . Dealers, they lost. Steelers, they lost. Is that what you predicted . I did. And honor pleasure senatorning to join johnson new new and Peter Thompson and so many other Public Officials and private inizens around the state extending my endorsement to Governor John Kasich of ohio and his campaign for the office of president. this is a big deal to have Gordon Humphrey and, of course, Peter Thompson. I would like to call on the president of the United States and the leadership in the congress of the United States to create sanctuaries, safe havens in syria. Perhaps along the jordanian border. Perhaps along the border with turkey, where we would create nofly zones. Do you think they see you as a dangerous threat now . Governor kasich whats interesting to me is they are kind of bragging about being in my library. I have a library in westerville. Its really cool. They set up my old Congressional Office and they have material and all that. I love when people visit that library. I just never expected the bush people to be directed to that library, but they say they are having a lovely time. Mark what is the argument against the nofly zone . Governor kasich it would be provocative. Would not want to make the russians mad. Mark have you met putin . Governor kasich i have not. Of him . T do you think governor kasich i think he is a bully and he will push you until you say no. Mark how did you score a day on the trail . What makes it a good day . Me, thiskasich for teen of ways in which i determine we had a good day and we had a lot of good days what i see with my eyes and what i feel with my gut. How many calories do you think you will need today . Governor kasich i dont know. I dont think about it. Im not hungry right now. Mark oh, a town hall. Governor kasich shes young. Gotis got years shes years. Not that you dont. There were go, halperin. Screwed it up already. They are bragging that they are there investigating me. Come on. Seriously . Your campaign look at other candidates records . Governor kasich none that i know at this point. We are certainly not going into their libraries and archives. At some point i guess we will aobably do that, but its little early for that . Maybe not. Did you check with anybody on your team, or that is just your instinct . Governor kasich no, i did not check with anybody. Whats always the hardest thing for me i guess in any job is ofn i think i am sort more natural to be i mean, i think i was sort of warned or raised or whatever to sort of the a leader. Whenever im in a position where i cannot lead, it is really hard for me. What is interesting about this process is its almost like training to run, you know, a race. The more you do it, the more you get accustomed to it. Mark when we come back, we will take another look at the summer focus group we did with donald Trump Supporters. You will want to see it after this. John when donald trump announced he was running for president , a lot of the press was not sure how seriously to treat his campaign. That changed for us at the end of july. We knew the phenomenon was real. Thats when we conducted it rochus group of donald Trump Supporters in new hampshire. Here now is a look back at some of that fascinating and revealing conversation. Tells it like it is. Speaks the truth. What truth is that . When he talks about especially immigration control and the border, he really he doesnt care what people think. He tells the truth, what we need to do. Yeah, i think hes probably if its the truth or not, i think he tells you the way he feels. Like he says, he wont be bought off. Everybody else has the chance of being bought off. Summary many politicians go to washington, and they become completely you know, they dont work for the constituents anymore. It, theay i see political rhetoric, most of the politicians talk in, let say, pastel colors. They talked for two of hours and you go away wondering what they have not with a subset of substance. Probably nothing. But they have not offended anybody and they try to make everybody their friend. Donald trump is vivid colors because he says things the way they are. He means business. I like his roughness. A little reaganesque. We need someone tough. John how many people in this room consider themselves members of the tea party . 1, 2, 3, 4, 5. When you put your hands up,