Virginia in nebraska did in fact go to polls today with the republican race. Threecus is instead on general election battlegrounds, florida, ohio and pennsylvania. That is because quitting up university is up with you Quinnipiac University is out with the polls that run counter to clintons current lead over trump in Many National polls. In pennsylvania, clinton and trump are statistically tied. The same is and true in florida, which is a must win state for almost any future president and finally, in ohio, quinnipiac has trump up 43 to 39 for clinton which is within the margin of error, but there is a lot in here to dig into sheer, but as we know polls like this do two things. They reflect reality and they create reality. Begin with the first thing polls do, reflect reality. What reality do they reflect . Mark lets not overreact to one set of polls. The quinnipiac is a good pollster, and the states are obviously critical for determining which one of these lands. Wins. All three of them show the race is close which suggests something is going on. One of the biggest exultation of why trump is doing better is men. Take a look at men, support for trump versus clinton. In pennsylvania, trump with a ad with menbigleag even in florida. What does that tell you . You look at the national polls, men are favoring trump usually by single digits, and some places they are tied. What is powering trumps lead in these three states, largely it is overwhelming support from health voters, and there is no doubt if he is going to win a general election, he will have to dominate men as much or more than Hillary Clinton. She is dominating women. John that is obviously true in the sense that it is reflected in the numbers. Mark almost everyone who will vote in the election comes from those Demographic Group straight Demographic Groups. John i will make an acute observation that historically speaking, nominees for major parties get a boost in polling when they become presumptive nominees. Having that declared, they tend to get a bump. Mitt romney got one, barack obama got they usually get a one. Boost. I think that is some of what is going on is the basis of historical trend, that trump is getting favorable attention in the states for voters that are looking at him as the nominee and they are not doing that for Hillary Clinton, even though we know mathematically she is just as presumptive. Mark in a world of the normal republican and democratic nominee, youd say, the base comes home, they get over 90 of the people voting. If trump can consolidate republican support, it will be surprising if these background states are not 10, 7 point clinton margins. But in fact, trump even or ahead. It starts with the gender gap. Hillary clinton has a man problem. John and there is other polling that suggests what you are saying is happening, which is to say, although there is a lot of division at the elite ranks of republicans, at the level of republican voters, there is consolidation happening, and that is not happening for Hillary Clinton. Mark she is still fighting Bernie Sanders. That was the reality of what these polls reflect. John, what reality since these polls have come out are they creating . Tonight is the reality. They are certainly helpful for donald trump. Mark that hasnt happened to trumpet with a long time. Look, this is a guy who needs to who everybody feeds on looking like a winner. But if you are trying to unify the Republican Party and overcome doubts with people who think he is a sure loser, pointing out that there are battleground states in which he is competitive or ahead, Hillary Clinton helps to ameliorate those doubts, and it is something you can point to, and may be something that is possibly true. Mark there are some republicans thats a he is not worried about trump losing but about trump winning. He would be horrible. But mostly, you have congressional members stand up , candidates, governors trump was going to win john or that he would be competitive mark what they have to start focusing on is how do we make them a better candidate . How do we work Better Together with his team . How do we get him over the finish line. That is good news for him. He said any candidate needs for it to win, but the reality is democrats do not default on to win but republicans do. A need ohio. There is no map to 270. Its of a new would be a bonus for them. What this does is it sets to the republicans assess to the republicans, there is a potential path that may include pennsylvania and trump winning in obama state that the democrats have held for many cycles in a row. John pennsylvania is often fools goal for the republicans. Fulls gold for the republicans. My only point about florida was to say that there are paths for democrats to win without florida, for barack obama won it, george w. Bush one it also. The thing is, trump does not need to prove to republicans that he is going to win. What he needs to prove to republicans is that he will not be a massive drag on the ticket, that he is doomed to lose and will lose badly. As long as he is competitive, they can do it with their minds around it. Mark sends trump became the presumptive nominee, he has been acting like trump. He has been moderating a few issues. This is to them, trump can win by being trump. If they are banking on him changing to win no banking. John no way. We are going to talk to a master poster more about these quinnipiac polls and what they reflect in a moment. First, more on Donald Trumps preparation against Hillary Clinton. The manhattan billionaire plans to travel to cleveland and take a look at the planning underway for the Republican Partys convention. Yesterday, team trump met in washington with rnc staff to discuss a fundraising agreement and how they can Work Together in the general election. Mark, as trump makes his gradual and presumably inexorable ascent from presumptive to actual nominee of the Republican Party, will he allow previous will he allow the team to keep their jobs . Mark i think they are so busy, so resistant to giving out power, that i think the trump people are probably willing the shortterm to see if the republicans can do this. Let them keep doing a lot of the research, and see how they do. Once the trump team gets to the convention or past it, if they feel like the rnc is not doing what they need to, they will take it over. Even though i think he will prevail. John i think they would never take those powers away. Just because the money is too big a problem. The New York Times has the figures he will have a hard time raising that money. The party wants trump to raise money for it but the party wants trumps help. The rnc makes itself indispensable on purely financial grounds, which is the biggest security blanket that he has. Mark lets remember that the Republican Party not just raise d raised a lot of money but they have one collections elections galore. Its reasonable to say, ok, you have helped the party, prove it. Do it at the president ial level. People who there are notice there are some new butlers coming into his world and billionaires, but i do not know where he turns to raise that kind of money if he cannot land a party for a big part of it. Mark up next, more powerful than the wizard of oz. Our pollster shows us what is behind the curtain in the polls we batted around. We will get to the numbers after these words from our sponsors. Mark joining us now from the great city of des moines, our pollster extraordinaire, j. Ann seltzer. Thank you for joining us. We are talking again about these kubiak numbers the act numbers quinnipiac that show ties between clinton and trump in pennsylvania, ohio and for the. What are your thoughts on these three polls and how seriously we should take them for a window and where we are in the race . Uestion ma these polls look different from national polls, and of course they should. What happens nationally does not always play out statebystate in the same way, and the way you win a presidency is by winning the states. First of all, i will say these are more important polls to look at the Overall National polls, in particular trying to engage the state of the race today. Nit i would pick is the interview a broader section of people, anybody who says they are registered to vote, that is how they get into their samples. There is a smaller universe among that group who say they are likely voters. Anyway, that is defined so there is a little bit of error that comes in between the people who are registered in the people that are not registered. It certainly gives us a baseline Going Forward about how these raises change in these key swing states. John we know that sample matters a lot, and the question of how accurately do these polls reflect what will be or what we think will be the composition of the electorate. Racial come position, gender composition. When you look at the samples, do you like what you see . I do like what i see. Basically, its because they are not deciding ahead of time what that electorate is going to look like. That, to me, is the pollster divinely figuring out months from now what the electorate will look like. Is telloll can do well you what the composition of the electorate looks like today, if the election were held today. There is honestly some going there is honestly going to be some shifts and what those demographics look like as we get closer and closer, but there are other things that will be far more effective in determining who actually wins the states than what the polls have measured along the way. There will be a lot of campaigning. Mark that will be some art and science and science in this answer, as is sometimes the case in polling. Is there a way to tell, in general, if you like a registered versus likely, which is a debate we will have all the way through november, is one or the other screen more likely to favor trump or clinton . What you find is that the difference showing up tends to be in the portion that says they are independent. That is a bigger group among all registered voters then it ends up being among likely voters. We always look at the independence as a Critical Group for white candidate is doing well. So of course come out we will be paying attention to that. Among a, the race is tied independents in this poll. In ohio, trump is leading by three points. In pennsylvania, he is leading by seven points. That group of independence may shrink a bit as are to the election. Is that they are finding their party toward the end of this, the same people, or is it that the independents tend to drop out and more partisans come in . That has yet to be determined. John and we know these candidates are coming in with high unfavorable ratings by historic standards for presumptive nominees. Talk a little bit about what you see across these three states. Well, i think the conventional wisdom going and is these are both candidates who have high unfavorables, and that is true and this data found that out. What was the conventional wisdom is that Donald Trumps unfavorables were much higher than Hillary Clinton, and in these three states in these polls, that is not the case. That one of these candidates had higher unfavorables, that was Hillary Clinton. Mark i do not think i have seen a national or staple where donald trump had better or close to equal favorableunfavorable to clintons of the standout in that respect. They do stand out in that respect, and again i would just reiterate that it is states like this that are going to determine who wins the presidency. Getting this early read, and it is early, on exactly how things are shaking down in swing states is painting a different picture and an important one. John one of the things happening in the democratic race is Bernie Sanders says he does better headtohead against donald trump. These polls will in addition, to make donald trump happy will also make Bernie Sanders happy. What do you make of that argument that sanders offers for white he would be a stronger general election nominee that Hillary Clinton . I think he makes a very fair point, which is in these polls, are polls have shown it as well, when you do a head to head with Hillary Clinton versus the field or Bernie Sanders versus the field, Bernie Sanders numbers ly higher than Hillary Clinton. What is that telling us about the electorate . It certainly tells us that this is an electorate that is in the mood for change, and given the opportunity to vote for a candidate that represents change, they are more likely to support that candidate. I cant tell you that a lot of those Bernie Sanders supporters, when they are asked what if it is Hillary Clinton, would say they go for trump because he is the change guy, and that would be interesting to delve into, but it makes sense. The mood of this electorate, which has been the strongest predictor of how these primaries have played out, has landed on Bernie Sanders and donald trump, two people that a year ago we would have thought had no chance. That they represented such a different path, but people want a different path. A lot of speculation about whether trump will get the psychological boost of being ahead of Hillary Clinton in a national poll. Do you see anything in the data that suggests trump has that potential in the shortterm, to pass her . I have learned nothing. Who knows what the next poll will show . I think what donald trump is in the middle of is figuring out his way forward in terms of messaging, in terms of how it is that he wants to now compete for the presidency as opposed to just the nomination. So, everything he does, on every day between now and the next poll, we will see what it shows. Mark thank you very much. Who ofup, the whos donald j trumps fundraising team. We will have that for you. John our next guest is a Pulitzer Prize winner. He is on the campaignfinance beat and joins us now to talk about some of the news related to Donald Trumps operations. What is going on in Donald Trumps money world . So donald trump, during the primary, said he wasnt raising money. People did send him money anyway, but he was not making that focus of raising money from the public. Now he has got a general election where he might need to spend 1 billion or more, so he says never mind, now i will raise money. He is starting from zero. Last week, he announced his new National Finance chairman, a guy named steve minutien. He is a hedge fund guy. Not a big pro when it comes to republican fundraising circles. Hes not a wellknown name. It is yet to be seen how donald trump will do when it comes to fundraising. Mark one of the things that has been discussed as a joint fundraising agreement with the rnc, something Hillary Clinton already has with the dnc. What is the history and the rules of the road . Why is her so much focus on it . Why is there so much focus on it . A joint Fundraising Committee would allow donald trump to not only raise money for his own campaign, but to raise money for the rnc at the same time and for many of the state political committees. The way Hillary Clinton is using it, she has 33 states signed up, so in one fell swoop, they can get a donor to write a check of 300,000 that goes to all these different places at once, and most of it goes back to help Hillary Clinton in one way or another. John why wouldnt that just the automatic . Why is it not a winwin for everybody . Well, it can be. That is why they do these fundraising agreements. But for a guy like trump or a lot of the states have already voted for somebody, the state republican parties, someone for ted cruz, summit for rubio some went for rubio, so it will be of the bit more tricky to get all of the states on board, that they will work with him to raise money for his election. He is not someone well known in the republican fundraising universe. There have been a couple big names that have come on board for donald trump in the last couple of days. How is it going in terms of trying to get butlers come up people with a track record of being and to put together big money for president ial candidate. How is that going for trump right now . As you said, he has some big fundraisers, a walker guy, a bush guy. There are some reports that he is meeting with a fundraiser for the rnc. He is a real guy with a lot of connections to raise a lot of money over the years for people. It remains to be seen, if you look at the people who were early behind him, a lot of them are people, some of them have plenty of money, but were not really part of the network that was behind george w. Bush back in the day, or behind romney in 2012, so the question is, can somehow build a new organization or find people who can build it for him . Trump won the nomination on the cheap. Does he need a lot more money or could he be raised toone and still win . And the primary, he basically took the strategy of using his celebrity and his ability to say newsworthy or interesting things to dominate the news second, and so he did not need to spend money on advertising the way other people did. Ways, that in some might be trickier in the general election where it is not so much a question of just being noticed compared to 17 other candidates running but it is really just a match of him and Hillary Clinton. He seems to hand, broken every rule along the way and succeeded in it, so im not sure anybody can tell you for sure he cannot find a tota