Transcripts For BLOOMBERG With All Due Respect 20161105 : vi

BLOOMBERG With All Due Respect November 5, 2016

Impregnable lead or does donald a credible path to the white house . There were few credible polls, but a handful of surveys look pretty positive for the republican nominee. First the New York Times has clinton up just by three, 47 to 44. That same poll had clinton with a ninepoint lead a week ago. And this New Hampshire survey from the boston globe and Suffolk University showed them tied. Been upite state has until recently people thought clinton pulled ahead, will lead spirit also a new poll from the university of denver, another place where clinton was presumed to have the electoral votes locked down. A new nbc newswall street journalmarist poll show clinton with trump with a Comfortable Lead in texas. In utah,ly trip is up where the independent candidate has fallen back to third. Jon, we will talk about the polls that are good for Hillary Clinton, but what do you see in the surveys that are positive for trump . John welcome, look, the main thing is you start to get an incontrovertible sense that the race has tightened in this last period before election day. If the colorado poll were true, that would suggest that what Hillary Clinton has relied on as in the bag was not only competitive, but trump is ahead. If you look at that ball more closely, you will show it is hispanics,g 9 of which is not at all what the numbers are like i think it was 14 in 2012. That poll may be under representing a key demographic in that state. If that is true or even close to true, it says something important. Professional and movement over the last two weeks. Is he still moving, or has he topped out . Has trumpeted the natural ceiling . I believe this data is suggesting he may well still be moving and he may well be moving in a number of places in a positive direction in those red states where clinton was thinking about challenging and a positive way for him in the blue states. He is still not there yet, but these polls suggest, i think now it is the third day in a row where the data suggests Trump Movement up and clinton in most of these places well below 50. The Trump Campaign has got to hope, as they have all along, a lot of undecideds break his way because she is the quads i incumbent. Right, the question is what is the relationship between what is going on this week and what happened in the early vote. We have mixed evidence of the early vote. People in the democratic side are very confident. Places like nevada [bell rings] democrats are confident they have a huge lead in the early vote. Will matter a lot in terms of what the outcome is. Ok. So, Hillary Clinton, by contrast, had a few positive poll numbers that came out yesterday. She had a better day, i would say in the polling than donald trump did. There were two polls we could site where clinton would be smiling. This would be a huge deal if Hillary Clinton were to win the peach state, as deep red as it theand a local fox poll has nominee of by four Percentage Points in the sunshine state. That is a big deal donald trump cannot win the presidency without florida. Polls here are goodness really clinton. Are they significant enough that they might offset the good news on the trump side in terms of . He clinton psyche do the stupid thing and took the latest polls in every battleground state, she would still win. The bottom has not come out. Trump has not broken through in enough places to say he can get back to parity with her in terms of his chances to win and i know people think we get paid to be definitive indecisive. I still believe all of these states could break one direction or another and she may end up winning a state like georgia. I think she could indepth winning a state like arizona. But she could also end up starting to lose. I will just say Momentum Matters at the end. She is holding on. She is not collapsing. It is hard to say she has momentum compared to charm. Compared to. Doesnt have a lot of momentum and i think you are right, she does not have a lot of Forward Momentum if you are in the lead and you just told served, you and winning. I think the florida poll the two campaigns give privately different assessments of where things are. That florida poll we just put up is what i think most immigrants think is the case, and so if that poll captures reality and Hillary Clinton is going to win florida, that is as consequential as any other single thing in this race. [bell rings] game, set, sunshine match. We talk a lot about the states that trump would need to win to get there. We want to flip things around to show you why to Hillary Clinton very much as the upper hand in this race, because her journey is relatively civil. You start with the solid blues desk out from you, new york, rhode island. Thinkn bank close those really clinton. Then you look at the states that. Ave 59 electoral votes those are ones leaning their way where she has big leads in the public polling, averaging five or more. If she wins those, she is 16 electoral votes away, and you can see that final list, where she needs to get 16 florida or ohio alone would do it, otherwise some combination. You go back to be leaning list, and again, cap is challenging and everyone of those with the possible exception of virginia. Can trump take any of those away . Maybe. But you can see under current public polling, Hillary Clinton is just 16 electoral votes away with relative ease. If trump starts to dig into that list on leaning, we deal with a different situation. This yeah, the thing about is you look at the list here and him try to get my head around it. The thing about the leaners, right, at this moment, pennsylvania, virginia, michigan, wisconsin, and new mexico, all leaning democratic. Excludingtates, four, virginian, of those states are states that democrats have one cycle after cycle. You have to go back to the 1990s to find any one of the states going republican and my believe. Virginia was a closer out of ground. She has been waiting therefore a long time. I would be shocked shocked if any of the states in that than donald trump l column. Is not rule of the possibility, but that illustrates why she is still. Catbird seat i know that doubled up is contesting those, but those are big reaches. You use the word shops. If you walk up tomorrow and showed trump moving nationally or ahead in those days, i do not think at this point people should they they are shocked. That is not to predict it is going to happen. She is still bedeviled by wikileaks. From a lot ofing republican operatives working on other candidates, down ballot candidates, the Affordable Care act thing is in the minds of a lot of voters. It is bringing republicans home and republicans believe in a lot of these contested races is going to appear and you can put the list of states back, people have to remember a lot of these states are contested senate races, and in those contested senate races with one or two exceptions, the republican candidate continues to do quite well and it can make a big difference. We want to go over to the list of the leaning. You have the race in pennsylvania. You have the one in wisconsin ohio, North Carolina. Nevada. All of those states have the contested senate races. And republicans are in better shape than most people thought they would be. [bell rings] gon i will say just to back to my shocked comment if double dribblings two of those thatng states, i think will mean he will when mitchell everyone of the tossup states. I dont think that will happen. Got ald mean trump has big, big wave, a bigger waves only of seen in this race far, a bigger wave than trump has come close to riding in the campaign to date. Quick break, nbc news katie turner joins us to talk about the week to date. Stay tuned. Us now from North Carolina where donald trump speaking tonight, nbc news coversondent katy tur the campaign. It is fascinating watching him toggle between more uplifting, optimistic rhetoric than he is used to make a vain and still being quite negative going after itll. Is there some balance they are trying to strike . Campaigns want to end their campaign on a positive note. Certainly Hillary Clinton did. She is not able to at the moment. The donald Trump Campaign is no different. At the same time, his campaign has been defined by attacks, oftentimes personal attacks or other people online, social media, or at rallies or in interviews, but also attacks against the establishment, attacks against the Hillary Clinton, attacks against the idea that the whole system is donald not just against trump necessarily, but the american people. It makes sense for him to continue on the next five days. But he also needs to distract from his onslaught of negative headlines we have been talking about for 16, 17 months, his chance to focus on Hillary Clinton entirely, to get out of the way and let her wallow in a slew of bad headlines of loan. This is a calculated move by the campaign, one that they think will regained some ground, one that republican operatives think will help them regain some ground as long as trump stays on the message. John there is a question we were just discussing on the. Rogram about Melania Trump she has not been doing much . Why now . Do they have regrets about not using her more . Katy lets look where she was. She was in the suburbs of philadelphia. This is where donald trump needs to pick up women. Republican women in this area, get them to vote for him. Deployed there very strategically, they are to portray the softer side of donald trump and the softer side of their family. The support ofe women that other past republican candidates have had, certainly not what mitt romney had in 2012 and if he is going to have a fighting chance, they need to find a way to stem the lead with republican women. She had comethat out on the campaign trail more . They are not saying that to me in private conversations. She has not been so apparent on the campaign trail. She had that speech at the Republican National convention, but we have not seen her much on the trail, even by Donald Trumps side. It has been very focused on trump as a personality rather than his family life. We have seen more of his kids than melania. What i found interesting, she was talking about what she would and whats first lady she would focus on, specifically bullying on social media and how the rhetoric in this country has. Otten to mean and thats raising a lot of eyebrows because donald trump built the campaign on namecalling and undercutting his opponents any way he can and does social Media Campaign that goes after critics with positive. That was eyebrow raising. Earlier in the show, i said that trump was the countrys biggest cyber bully. The remarks seem ironic if nothing else. At 30,000 feet here, it was not that long ago Kellyanne Conway was acknowledging trump was the underdog. In my conversations with campaign aides, they are suggesting the race is tied or they may be the favorite. What is your sense of his staff will posture about where they stand . The staff is extraordinarily confident. They were handed a gift last friday with the revival of the fbi investigation and another gift with obama care premiums rising and another one with the cnn allegations about Donna Brazile giving Hillary Clinton questions before a debate. They say there and told their internal polling is showing they are gaining ground in a lot of the states. They even claim that they are gaining ground in a pretty blue state like mexico. Verysay that it will be tough to win. They say it is not necessarily he is going to win, but the down ballot races are in a better position than they were last week. Mark next up, talking about the state of the race in the final days before election day after this word from our sponsors. Decades of lies, coverups and scandals have caught up with Hillary Clinton. Mexico since his people, they are not sending their best. They are sending rapists. I would like to punch him in the face. Get him out of here. Those are excerpts from the latest ads. Deputy the former Campaign Manager for Carly Fiorinas run. Tracy and sara i will ask you the same questions were asking everybody when we start out these blocks right now. Where do you see the race . First of all of them in andago and i see the race frankly i see everything through the lens of last nights huge win. Forgive me for the euphoria. Goes, i thinkrace we are in a good place. What hillary has going for her continues to be her strength. And all of these factors are very much in her favor and im feeling confident about tuesday night. Tracy, thank you for your cups congratulations on your cubs. I should have said that in the introduction. Go, cubs. Where do you think about where the race stands right now . I would have agreed that hillary has the much faulted ground game, but it has not been turning out. If i were the Hillary Campaign i would be getting nervous. At this point, you have New Hampshire tied in nevada closing in. I will watch these numbers move. I think thats what is coming down to a florida and North Carolina get away from her. Mark sarah, give me an inactive. Tell me about someone who was not for trump before but now is. Sarah, give me an anecdote. I do not think it is changing minds. I think it is the enthusiasm level. You have such unlikable candidates i think we can see why. In 2012, the republicans are down in the early vote count. In North Carolina, the turnout is not working. Hillary Clintons Campaign is intentionally not turning early voters out in the relying that that was their strategy or things are not going the way they thought they would. You look at when the new clinton ad, increasing attempts to define donald trump is an acceptable, is that working or is that not working . What i think is masterful about the approach is all of these ads are just donald himself, footage of him talking, the things he has said, the things he has done. For theally hands off Hillary Campaign. He makes the case for himself through his ridiculousness and the lying and the danger and the divisive things that he says. I think the fact that all you have to do is play the tape of extremely well, especially when you see the ads he is running about hillary are largely innuendo. He is giving the campaign a gift in this regard and i think the Clinton Campaign is smart to be utilizing it the way they have. John let me push back a little bit. As i looked at those ads, what struck me. The Clinton Campaign is beautifully produced and the trump ad is more tabloid, or garish. But the arguments in the clinton ad, those are arguments she has been making for months and months and the ads are the style of ads we have been saying for months and months. The trump ad is injecting Fresh Information into the race. It seems to me that that is more eyecatching because it is new. It has the feel of something new. You that concern you or do feel that at all when you compare them side by side . What i do know is tommy people will make their decisions assuming they have not voted yet, they will make their decisions based on your friends and colleagues and neighbors. I that regard, five days out, am not concerned. I think you are right, there is a garish, tabloid quality. Last night when one of those ads came on, the place erected into into boos. Upted are we put up a list of leaning states trump is spending time in. From a strategic stem point, does it make sense to spend these precious days in states that have been blue for so long . Be locking down florida, North Carolina, and nevada, New Hampshire, and pennsylvania. What is stunning, the Hillary Campaign is sending lori to michigan tomorrow. Nothing shows me the internal panic of a campaign as much as going to a state that does not have a senate race nothing explains that except they do not do not see michigan on the map. I think it is stunning that a democrat would say tv ads do not matter when clinton has so wildly outspent trump on tv and they are saying that part does not matter. I think theres a lot of panic campaignys right now. They will have to do soulsearching about what the message will be to turn their voters out. Election day is potentially republican day. John tracy, are you panicked . Sarahs point, although i think she is misconstruing what i said. Its not that ads do not matter. The cumulative process of this campaign has been, yes, the millions and millions of dollars spent on tv ads have made the case. One or five ads will not make or break. It is the sum total we are talking about here. Mark more on the best of all do the best of with all due respect after these words from our sponsors. Trumps senior adviser. Hi, guys. Where do you think the basis right now . Youre representing the Trump Campaign. Trumps slightly in mr. Favor. We saw a huge swing. Down 13 points a few weeks ago. Third in swing states, it is a dead heat. She is losing her lead in virginia. Not looking good for Hillary Clinton. No doubt the numbers have tightened. We remain confident in all the battlegrounds. There is a lot of trump to overcome. The facts of the race dont change in the position she has taken a mr. Trump has taken, none of that has changed. Lastly, you thought that hillary was best to lead us making us more promise making us more prosperous. No

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