Certain she would be the 45th president of the United States. So did basically the rest of the political world. Instead, this morning, the democratic nominee thanked a room full of griefstricken staffers,nd campaign her running mate at her side, as she publicly conceded the race to donald j. Trump and wished him well as the soon to be leader of the free world. Secretary Clinton Donald trump is going to be our president. We all him an open mind and the chance to lead. Our constitutional democracy is thenes enshrines peaceful transfer of power. We do not just respect that. We cherish it. Many of you are at the beginning of your professional public and political careers. You will have successes and setbacks, too. This loss hurt, but, please, never stop believing that fighting for what is right is worth it. And to all the women, and especially the young women, who put their faith in this campaign and in me, i want you to know that nothing has made me prouder than to be your champion. [applause] secretary clinton and to all the little girls who are watching this, never doubt that you are valuable and powerful and deserving of every chance and opportunity in the world to pursue and achieve your own dreams. John according to the ap, michigan, New Hampshire, and arizona are still too close to call, but based on returns from other states that came in during the wee hours of this morning, it looks like Hillary Clinton won the nationwide popular vote while Donald Trumps unexpected surge in florida, the midwest, and the rust belt were more than the 270o secure electoral votes. Republicans secured the house and senate, clearing the way for the enactment of a bigly republican agenda next year. President obama everybody is sad when their side loses an election. But the day after, we have to remember that we are actually all on one team. This is an intramural scrimmage. We are not democrats first. We are not republicans first. We are americans first. We are patriots first. We all want what is best for this country. Thats what i heard and mr. Last night. Rks thats what i heard when i spoke to him directly, and i was. Eartened by that thats what the country needs. John mark, you and i were at Hillary Clintons. The Victory Party at the Javits Center last night, and we saw the mood shift. My questions for you are twofold. One is what the hell happened yesterday, and the other is how did so many people miss is so totally. Mark i think there are three things. People in elite circles just could not understand or accept the fact that trump had a chance to win. Second is when the incumbent or quasicome but is below 50, in a normal race, you would assume the challenger is going to get a lot of undecided votes, and for some reason, people just did not read the polls that way, but keptanne conway and others saying that. Lastly is there is a Human Element in politics. I kept saying that when these websites that aggregate polls were saying that trumps chances are 13 . All they were doing is looking up holes. If you went out and talked to there wasu would see one candidate pushing for change and one who is a creature of washington establishment. John i will push back on that. Donald trump got fewer votes in this election than mitt romney got four years ago. Hillary clinton got a lot fewer than barack obama got. I want to focus on some numbers. We talk a lot about her problems. She underperformed barack obama significantly with hispanic voters, even against donald trump and all the things he said about hispanics. She underperformed him predictably with africanamerican voters. She underperformed him with millennials by a lot. The big ball work the big was work the big bulwark that she was on track, according to every piece of data, to win, the first of a Credit History to win white collegeeducated voters overall. She failed at that. She was supposed to win by a dozen, 20 points, according to every poll, including polling we did. She only improved on obama by three points with white collegeeducated voters. Mark the lack of enthusiasm for her is a big part of the story, but part of the lack of seeusiasm is people did not her as anything but same old, same old establishment figure. I cannot prove this yet, and im not sure i will be, but i think having a lot of the conversation james comeyeing onagain offagain onagain offagain reinforce peoples view that this would be another same old, same old, someone who did they did not want to be in the white house, and i think that depressed her vote with lots of groups. With i agree she suffered lack of enthusiasm. All i will say is trump performed really well. His victory was across the board, as we have said. He won all the red states, all the battleground states, and a few blue states, but his overall performance was not much better than mitt romneys. It was her failure to do what she needed to do with the key elements of what is now the democratic coalition. There are a lot of reasons for that, but that was the core thing. She failed. This is a race for her that she should have one. Mark we asked our expert poster to walk us through the exit polls and dissect in the data how trump pulled off his victory last night. Is that Hillary Clinton did not hold on tos coalition that catapulted him into the white house in 2008 and returned him in the white house in 2012. That coalition was youth, minorities, and women. Trump ran up the score with whites and older voters. First, lets look at the young people. Lets take the battleground state of pennsylvania. Clinton won the under 45 age group, but by just 10 percentage points. Last time around, barack obama when the same age group by as much as 20 points. Keep in mind, older voters are more plentiful than younger voters. Next, minorities. Lets look at florida. Not bad, but not enough when you consider that trump trounced clinton by 31 points among floridas larger white population. Points blewin of 31 past mitt romneys previous high ink of 24point victory 2012. Then theres women. The Biggest Group of women nationally are, of course, white women, and this is a stunner. Trump one nationally by 10 among whiteoints women, more than enough to take away any advantage clinton had with the Smaller Group of minority women. Finally, our own data showed a clue that what happened last night could have been predicted, just a little nugget in a question that asked about risk. Republicans nationally saw greater risk in continuing to elect the same kind of candidate over and over, so, really, we could see for months that trump brought together the right coalitions and tapped into the mood of the electorate that was ready for change. Mark that is a lot of really key data. Kellyanne conway talked a little bit in making the claim that the trump data saw a lot of this coming and they seemed confident. It will be fascinating eventually, i hope someone gets a presentation from the clinton people i hope its us because they were equally or maybe even more confident that she was going to win, and im desperate to know what calculations they made. The campaigns have so much more data than the public media polls. How did they get it so wrong . John right. Theres no question the Trump Campaign was doing more with data that a lot of us in new, but i still cannot believe that there was not a big disparity between the number of polls done , just the sheer volume from the Clinton Campaign. Back in 2012, the Obama Campaign was basically like building an atomic clock while the Romney Campaign was working with a sundial to measure their vote. I felt thats where the Clinton Campaign was, which is part of why when the Clinton Campaign claims matched up with public polling, thats why people like me look at that and said that he, durable lead nationally and a lot of battleground states. Thats what the public polling showed, and thats why you give credence to their confidence. Mark what made no sense to me was i had clinton people telling we are up by 102 in florida. We cannot lose. Thats not enough of a margin to deal with the prospect of a trump search, which is, at least in florida, was seems to be what happened. Touting namesrump on his administration hiring list. We will talk about that when we come back. Mark the world is getting its arms around all the giant stories that exist in the wake oftrumps victory, and one the biggest between now and Inauguration Day is how donald trump will prepare to assume the office. Part of the process is going to involve tilting relationships with elected officials in congress and around the world. It also means recruiting people to serve in his new administration. One person should be key to that is Vice President elect mike pence. He is a man with very good relationships throughout the party including with some people trump has not gotten along with. Other familiar faces have been theted for a position in cabinet or white house of donald j. Trump, including Newt Gingrich as secretary of state, Jeff Sessions as secretary of defense, and former mayor Rudy Giuliani as attorney general. The Trump Campaign said he would be releasing his first picks and about a week. What is a Trump Administration going to look like . John not like any other administration we have seen in a long time. Most of those figures up there on the board are familiar from republican politics, but they are not beltway stables. I dont know that we want to begin making predictions about who is going to be in, but one of the interesting things is every president ial candidate tries to be a man of the people. But trump ran a genuinely populist outsider campaign, and now he is going to the establishment he disdained and try to work within it, so having you maintain that fealty to what got you here while also putting people into positions that actually know how to run the federal government . Big challenge. Mark i think he will have a lot of businesspeople. One of the democrats claims in this campaign was trump is a fraud as a business person. He has failed. The bankruptcies. His businesses are a big joke. It will be fascinating to see if he picks Business People, how do they do . Does he have the judgment to put Business People in that can get stuff done and what kind of standards does he have in terms of ethics and resumes. Everything we are about to discuss people have barely thought about because people did not think he would win because theres very little to go on because he has never been in elected office. John how do you feel about a treasury secretary who would go by the name of mooch . Mark all good with that. Ryan freed his congressional caucus to vote their conscience when it came to supporting their party past nominee. Fast forward to this morning when ryan used a postelection press conference to keep unmitigated praise on donald trump, giving him credit for the decisive residential victory he won last night and for all the republicans running down ballot who he lifted along the way. Speaker ryan this is the most incredible political feet i have seen in my lifetime. Donald trump heard a voice in this country that no one else heard. He connected with he connected in ways with people no one else did. He turned politics on its head. Our House Majority is bigger than expected. We won more seats than anyone expected, and much of that is thanks to donald trump. Donald trump provided the kind of coattails that got a lot of people over the finish line so we could maintain our strong house and senate majorities. John before i ask you this question, just a little piece of breaking news, which is that kelly ayotte up in New Hampshire has conceded in the New Hampshire senate race, which atns republicans right now 51 or 52, but they will mike at 253 now that kelly ayotte has seated. What do we expect to see on capitol hill . Mark one of the criticisms of some in the media and some of the Republican Party when trump was a candidate was that he was being normalized as people were talking about him into normal away. We saw a earlier on the show, president obama, Hillary Clinton, today the bushes, paul ryan. People are giving him a chance and i think his speech last night helped. As i said before, mike pence will be hugely important and with an all republican congress, he has a chance to give them the kind of coequal Branch Status that congress has not had under barack obama and to some extent, george bush. Here is an opportunity here paul ryan has a lot of ideas. John he is still donald trump, and he does not take enough so the not take guff, likelihood that it will be smooth sailing is not high except for the pens factor, but again, he went after ryan and others along the way. The other thing people should keep in mind is they think trump with a Republican House and senate thinks there will be a radical gop agenda rammed through. Remember back to barack obama when he came to power in 2008. Democrats controlled the house and senate. They did a couple of big things, but it was not smooth sailing. Democrats still have the filibuster in the senate. Mark a whos who of foreign leaders, as is normally the case after a new president is elected, center congratulations to donald trump. Benjamin netanyahu, who calls trump a true friend of israel, alsohe russian president wrote expressing a desire to turn russianamerican relations to a stable path of development. The president of mexico, Enrique Nieto congratulated the United States more broadly for its electoral process. What do you think will happen in the short term as trump gets started with his relationships with World Leaders . John depends how trump handles it. People in group of the world more freaked out then democrats other than the collective World Leadership. Benjamin netanyahu is a bit of an outlier. A lot of them will come into this very tentative and be looking to see if trump is statesman,ake on a and if he does take one on, i think there is a chance they will at least be ready to try to work with him, but if trump caves in a volatile way, this could get ugly and rocky fast. Mark i keep coming back to mike pence. I wonder how involved he will be. Our last two Vice President s were heavily involved. Who is the secretary of state . Who was National Security advisor . Trump has an interest in security policy, but i do not think he will be daytoday, nittygritty on all that stuff. John part of me thinks the story we heard during the election fight, when they try to get john kasich to come on the ticket, youll do Foreign Policy andomestic supposedly donald trump junior said his dads role would be making America Great again i think there was a little bit of truth to that. Mark well talk about the state of the Democratic Party following last nights stinging defeat of Hillary Clinton following these words from our sponsors. Jon last night, pretty much everyone thought it was the republicans who would need an introspective soulsearching after election day or would find themselves engaged in a fullblown civil war, but at this point, if anyone is going to be launching a full autopsy or waging internal war, it will be the democrats, those who faced a colossal defeat last night. We can devote this entire block to this one question what the future for democrats . Mark this show and many others have devoted months to the ruination of the republicans. The Democratic Party is in a world of hurt. They do not control the house or senate. They and wiped out in a lot of states. There are republican governors all over the country, and theres no bench. The names that gets loaded for potential 2020, some nice people. Hillary clinton, by moving so far to the left to accommodate Bernie Sanders, i think just muddled up with the party stands for. Is an inside player. He will not be some big national figure. I have to hope someone images with ideas and style and communication skills. The list is short. John i do not think it will be that much engagement in warfare for this reason i think Hillary Clinton was the last to the of clintonism extent that such a thing exists. This is going to be a Leftwing Party now up for aggressive ism unbridled. Bernie sanders is going to be a big figure in the party. Elizabeth warren is going to be a big figure in the party. Cory booker is going to be a big figure of the party. You might say that is a good or bad idea, but i do not think there will be some more between a centrist faction and left faction because there is not a very strong centrist faction in the Democratic Party anymore. Mark they need people centrists, sure. I think Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren are two liberal to be dominant figures in american politics. They can be in the Democratic Party. Possible either one of them might have beaten donald trump in an election. Mark they need some governors and younger members of congress who have ideas, who are willing to stand and fight. They do not need to be leftwing or rightwing, but they need to be practical