Transcripts For CNBC Closing Bell 20131029 : vimarsana.com

CNBC Closing Bell October 29, 2013

Probably get today. Write down this number, 15,676. 94. Thats what we need for an alltime high on the dow. Especially what we need is a gain of 108 points. Were about 10 points away from that right now. All of this despite a dip in Consumer Spending last month. And Consumer Confidence numbers that were well below expectations. But yet this market continues to power higher. Absolutely. Weve got money moving into equities. Amazing this market is where it is just five years after the financial crisis. Here in chicago, we will be speaki speaking exclusively with hank paulson. Well get reaction to todays breaking news about the deal between jpmorgan and the Justice Department. But it may be coming apart. We to want get his take on that. Then former senator chris dodd and former congressman barney frank are both with me. They spawned the dodd frank regulations of course. As well as securities and Exchange Commissioner Mary Schapiro will be joining us in this hour. After the break ill talk with Goldman Sachs ceo Larry Blankfein on a day where we see stocks moving into recordsetting manner. Were not forgetting the white hot story out of obama care, the nbc news report confirming the white house knew millions would not be able to keep their health plans even as the president was promising just the opposite. We have aetna ceo Mark Bertolini reacting exclusively to that coming up on the closing bell. Lets get to the red hot market. A market in unchartered territory. The Dow Jones Industrial average up. Weve been steady the last hour. The magic number as you heard to watch, 15,767 would be an alltime high. Were close to it with a 90point rally. Nasdaq, take a look at where we are, technology a leader today. Up 39 47. S p 500 also in recordsetting territory. If we close even just a point above where we are, yesterday we close at an alltime high. Were in unchartered territory with s p 500 at 1769. Lets talk about where the strength is today. Will the dow do it here . New alltime high, bob pisani. What is the money say on the floor right now . 15 points away. 15676 would be a cleesing high for the Dow Jones Industrial average. 15 points away. Were already at a new high on the s p, dow transports and russell 2000 on intraday basis. Ive been trying to explain for days why this happened. I called it the great stock rotation. Art cashin called it the great relay. Its simple. Markets keep rotating around into new sectors. Nothing goes down for very long. Right now, eight of ten s p sectors are at or near new highs. Nothing is lagging for very long. In 2013 no sector has lagged for very long. If it does, it comes back in a month or two. Let me show you an example. Take a look at the big sectors this month. These are the biggest sectors in the s p. Theyre all up 5 , 5 , 6 . Thats unusual to see a clustering at a time. Its happened frequently this year. What else is going on . Recently, for example, Consumer Staples have been strong. In the last few days, they have been the market leaders. If you look, for example, at clorox, gone from 87 to 90 in a few days. Thats not hard to explain, folks. Market momentum. Back to you. Lets talk about this Market Action as we set new alltime highs again maybe today. Joining us in our closing bell exchange, Patricia Powell from powell financial group, oe moore from Charles Schwab is with me at the big board, david seeberg and rick santelli. Someone turn bob pisanis microphone off, please, im begging you. Thank you very much. Omar, why are we at alltime highs right now . What is going on . Its a beautiful day, a great day. We see strong corporate profits. 70 of the companies in the s p 500 that have reported have been earning. 40 have revenues that is reality, so its actually pretty good. The Federal Reserve continues to support liquidity. I think we have heard, and i think everyone expects, the commodities everyones the ghost of tapering will not be here until halloween. I think we can wait for that until 2014. But i would add to that, not necessarily in that order. Not in you mentioned tapering last but that is the primary reason were going higher here, isnt it . That is correct. Also the flows into equities. I think what we have seen is this is going to be the first year well see net inflows into equity funds as well as the first year we saw outflows out of fixed income. Patricia, do you want to buy into this market here where we are or do you worried things are getting overheat given the fact we are large ily looking at the Federal Reserve as the big boost here . Not necessarily end market demand, wildly improving fundamentals. I think you have to be cautious in here. We are in the fifth year of a market recovery. Even if you think were in a secular bull market, which i do, we have a cycle to our economy. We have a cycle to the market. Fifth years can give you some nasty things. The fifth year of the 1982 market brought you the crash. We got five years out of the market through 95 to 99, and then we stepped off the curb and we ended in the 2000 dotcom bubble bursting. From a practical standpoint, what does that mean . When you say be cautious, what are you saying . Are you saying selling into the rally . Raising cash . What . Im saying you have to be defensive in your choices here. Of your risk money, i think you have to have a very significant amount of it in defensive position. So, what i might do is be looking at value stocks as opposed to growth stocks. I might be looking at midcaple and Large Cap Value stocks. I might be looking at staples, the consumer stams have been leading, but only for about a month. Those are traditionally a defensive place to be. David, you think were in a phase where a lot of whats going on is performancechasing. Weve already had great performance in the he cequity markets for the last few years. Now people want to get on board and be part of that, right . Right. I do think that still. I mean, i think that in general there were a lot of macro headwinds that kept money on the sidelines. Those macro headwinds, i. E. , government shutdown, debt ceiling issues, were through them and it looks like people are much more focused on stockspecific right now. You look at the vix options volume. The lowest its been all year. I think people are looking for differentiated ways to make that, to at least enhance performance or show theyre outperforming into the end of the year. Rick santelli, what are you seeing in a day the market is in record high territories . In equities and in pits in chicago . Were seeing a couple of curve gyrations but not much. The long end is on change in the 30year. Bonds, short maturities like the five are doing better on the upside and yield curves steepening. Thats predicted by the big fund managers. The real issue is, if you look at the conversation were having today, its a majority of, whats going to happen with the fed . Whats going to happen tomorrow . Whats going to happen with the taper . Whats going to happen with qe . You know, five years ago, maybe eight years ago, the majority of conversation was, retail sales, durable goods, what the economys doing. Even though i dont consider it a negative that stocks are going up, i think the dialogue we are having says it all. If sammy sosa was the only guy thats juiced, his home runs dont count. If the league said, everybody can be juiced, then instead of looking at which players are the best, youll see which doctors are the best. That will be the way you bet on baseball. Its just a little different strategy. Speaking of which, rick, you know, the bank of england, mark kae kearney said they are not going to tighten their Monetary Policy until their economy growth is sustainable. In is a global refrain. Were flaerg a lhearing from a central banks. I had a noblewinning economist on and he looked me in the high eye and said, qe is no big deal, they can reverse it, its a ledger industry. When he said it sounded like a bear stearns issue statement. Buying longterm treasuries. If a Nobel Laureate economyist doesnt see the danger in that, i rest my case. Very good. Thank you, folks, for your thoughts today on the markets. Appreciate it very much. Were in the final stretch. Were in the final stretch of a rip roaring day on wall street. 50 minutes until the closing bell sounds for the day. A market thats strong. Up 88 points. Looks like were losing some momentum here. S p 500 still alive and well in record territory, bill. Dow needs another 20 points if you like your health care plan, you will be able to keep your health care plan. Period. We now know that promise was not true. The white house has known that for at least three years, even as the president kept repeating that promise. So what else was said . Whats turned out to be the truth . Do we we do a Health Care Law reality check coming up with Mark Bertolini of aetna in a moment. Top white house adviser Valerie Jarrett tweeting nothing in obama care forces people out of their health plans. And nothing in the law is forcing Insurance Companies to tell people their plans are no longer offered. Wheres the discounnect. Well do the factcheck when we speak exclusively to Mark Bertolini of aetna. Stay tuned. [ male announcer ] when we built the cadillac ats from the ground up to be the worlds best sport sedan. People noticed. The cadillac ats 2013 north american car of the year. Lease this cadillac ats for around 299 per month with premium Care Maintenance included. At bny mellon, our business is investments. Managing them, moving them, making them work. We oversee 20 of the worlds financial assets. 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Lets go with the obvious promise made repeatedly if you like your plan you can keep it. You can read it on cnbc. Com, millions of americans who purchase individual plans are finding out that is not true. Theyre getting cancellation letters saying those plans dont meet the new obama care standards. Lisa myers also reports, the white house knew for years that this promise would not be true because when the regulations were finally written, the way they were written meant that many individual policies could not be, quote, grandfathered in as the president promised, for example, on february 25, of 2010. Any insurance you currently have could be grandfathered in so you could keep. You could decide not to get in the exchange the better plan. I could keep my acme insurance, just a high deductible, cat strofk plan. I would not be required to get the better one. Number two, more affordable coverage. All over whitehouse. Gov, there are repeated references to more affordable coverage. Once again, nbc news Investigative Unit reports millions of buyers of individual plans are finding out their premiums, instead, are rising sharply higher. Number three, you cant be denied because of a preexisting condition and you cant be dumped by an insurance company. Yes, those are true. But what the white house may have failed to consider is those provisions would likely lead to higher costs. Its extremely tough to promise you will have more, more, more and yet pay less. And, i leave you with this sound bite from the president in 2010. It gives customers more choice and more options. Theres so many good things about this, i may have forgotten one. Maria, bill, back to you guys. Lovely. Thank you. Thank you very much. Well, Health Insurers are feeling the frustration millions of americans are facing as they try to comply with the new Health Care Law. Aetna is one of those companies. Unrelated to the mess in obama care, the stock is down 1. 5 today after reporting a decline in quarterly profits and providing guidance for next year, saying its tough to find growth for 2014. Joining us now exclusively to talk about this is the head of aetna, chairman and ceo, Mark Bertolini. We kick it off on Health Care Law. Welcome. Good to see you, mark. Thanks for joining us. Hi, maria. Hi, bill. We know the white house is coming under fire for promising people that they could keep their health care. That has already proven to be false. Lisa myers, nbc news, reporting people are getting cancellation letters. You also have white house aide Valerie Jarrett refuting this on twitter. Basically tweeting, fact, nothing in obama care forces people out of their health plans. Fact, no change is required unless Insurance Companies change existing plans. So, whats your reaction, mark . Tell us can you separate fact from fiction for us . Sure. The only people who can keep their plan indefinitely are people who in the individual and Small Group Market were in that market before march 23, 2010, and over that period, from march 2010 till now, did not change their plans. So, the fact is that the individual market turns over a third every year, so in three years, we probably turned over most of the individual market. And the fact is, because of the economy, small groups and individuals change their plans almost every year to make them more affordable and, therefore, not subject to grandfathering. Is it disingenuous on Valerie Jarretts part to say no change is necessary unless Insurance Companies change existing plans . Did you have a choice or would you have a choice to make changes in plans . You had to phase out some plans because they didnt meet the minimum requirements, didnt they . Well, we did have to create plans that were meeting the minimum essential benefits. We do need to provide those to individuals who are not grandfathered. So, individuals who are not subject to grandfathering must make a choice between now and december of 2014, depending on their plan terms, to switch to an aca essential benefits plan. Mark, you know what i dont understand, how come its so expensive . We spoke with two people yesterday who were just, you know, so upset. Initially her plan cost her, i think it was 250 a month. Its gone up to 600 a month, the new plan. Then the other one, you know, it was costing hi went up ten times. Her 500 and went up to 2,000. Its skyrocketing what the new plans are costing. Is it because theres a lot more things in there and many of these things they dont even want . They said, i dont need this, i dont need that, i dont need child care. Thats not what im looking for. How come its so much more expensive, the new plans. There are three factors. The largest factor is that the essential benefits requires a minimum of 60 actuarial benefit. For most americans and more than half of americans who buy individual coverage, their benefit plan is currently below 50 . So, if you just move up to 60 , thats a 20 increase out of the box. Secondly, theres anywhere from 4 to 5 in taxes and fees associated with the new Affordable Care act. And then there are changes the third thing, there are changes in rating. There are more benefits required. There are changes in, you know, preexisting conditions. All those add up to an average increase weve seen across the United States, depending on the market, of anywhere from 30 to 40 , ranging anywhere from low Single Digits all the way over 100 increases. The point is, the more people who opt in, the less the premium has to go up. More people opting in, thats more premiums coming in so the levels of the premium dont have to go up so much. But thats a big if. Lets talk about the impact on your bottom line for next year. In your Conference Call today, you said, its unclear what your growth is going to be next year, in part, because of the dust failing to settle on obama care right now, right . Well, i think there are a lot of factors. First, the economy and whether or not theres going to be a change in utilization, so is that has an impact. More importantly, the medicare rates were cut rather dramatically this year. So, we need to find a way to bridge the gap between what it will cost seniors out of pocket and what we are able to cover under the Medicare Advantage program. Thirdly, we have to pass through aetna alone will pass through to its customers over 1 billion worth of taxes and fees associated with Affordable Care act that need to go into pricing. So all those things cause a very unstable market uction cause us to rethink the fundamentals. We need to be more careful about the guidance we give next year. Truth is, our operating plan is not finished yet and this is early. We have an Investor Conference on december 12th where well be more exact about whether or not we see growth in earnings and in eps next year. We definitely want to focus on that day because people i know people are interested to see how this is imp

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