Transcripts For CNBC Closing Bell 20131106 : vimarsana.com

CNBC Closing Bell November 6, 2013

York stock exchange. Rally mode once again for stock prices. Yes, better late than never. Im bill griffeth. The dow needs to be up. Were well above the high today. Thats mine. Oh, i just blasted your ear. Can i have this back . Were doing this it was the big mac that got me. Up 116 points on the dow industrial average right now. Well into regular territory. Interestingly, the nasdaq is lower, some highprofile Technology Stocks are trading down, some think maybe some people are raising some money to get ready for Something Else to invest in. Big deal tomorrow. Well get the pricing tonight on twitter. It could happen as soon as an hour from right now. Twitter pricing the ipo breaking earlier on cnbc was the range is said to be moving higher from 25 to 27 a share but you never know, these things. It could go higher than that or lower, bill. Cnbc is going to have the news first with the best coverage and analysis. You dont want to switch the channel today as we await the twitter pricing. Also a new list thats getting a lot of attention today. Cnbc ranking the priciest neighborhoods in america. Now, we wont give you too much of a hint yet. But i can tell you the least expensive market in america is cleveland, ohio. You know, i didnt know that, wow, okay. So think, what is the opposite of cleveland . Just in terms of price . Its the most expensive Housing Market in the nation. Diana olick will do the big reveal. Beverly hills. Im just not going to say. Okay. Somewhere in california. Lets check the markets right now as we approach this final hour for trading. Dow jones industrial average up 117 points. 0 0. 75 . That would be an alltime high. Tonight the nasdaq composite looks like this, we are looking at negative performances here as bill just told you, some tech stocks trading down today leading it lower by a quarter of a percent. Approaching its own record high, nasdaq composite with a gain of 6. 25 points. Strong day for the bulls could lead to new records yet again. Check in with bob for it. Weird day. Let me put up let me put up the major sectors here for you, the major indices, first, the dow is up over 100 points. 10 points and the nasdaq is down . What . The bread is the breadthis terrible. It is bifurcating. Splitting up as momentum names are getting hit. Look whats moving. Big Cap Technology like microsoft and ibm are up. Big cap Consumer Staples names like Procter Gamble and cocacola. For once big cap energy names like chevron exxon are moving. Exxon a monster since the report came out. Look whats not doing anything. All the classic momentum names Everybody Knows and love, test tesla, yelp. All to the downside. Elsewhere other sectors breaking down. What was hot, whats been hot all year . Bio tech. Wait a minute. Heres your major etf down 3. 7 . What . These are all the momentum names that everybody is basically getting out of. Let me close by noting ipos, five of the six ipos pricing today are to the downside only barracuda to the up side. Heres where twitter will trade right behind me all the exci excitement starting to build beginning 9 00 tomorrow morning on twitter. Yes, we will, thank you, bob. Lets talk about this. We got downtown josh brown with us. Wealth management. Josh with us the full two ohour. Im sorry in advance. Hes here to do twitter, weather, traffic. Hes doing it all. Jordan waxman from hightower who thinks he knows what the priciest neighborhood is in the country. I saw you nodding your head. I have a good idea. You have a good idea. Hes not saying. Keith fitzgerald from Money Map Press and why another rally today up 120 on the dow . Whats going on . So if you think about just quickly pros and cons, i would say that its a pro that you could have a dow with a triple digit gain on a day when all stocks you put up that the bears would say are leading the market, a narrow leadership. Its just momentum when, in fact, its not. Youve got new highs in a lot of other areas and dont need netflix to be green. Its not a negative. The negative that ive give you is that the bakes have been kind of a no show. They havent made a new high since they peaked out in july. September they failed. This month it looks like they might be failing. That would be the area to watch as the tell for whether or not the Broader Market has legs. Banks have to make a new high in order for this to be a legitimate breakout into year end and were not seeing it yet. Keith, what about you . Are you going to sell into that trade . You know, its interesting. I think the banks are a real area of concern but dont agree theyre a poker tell. The key area is the consumer tech. Seeing a lot of power into that section of the market even though its a relatively band today. If it produces volume at a good price it says a lot of money wants to chase us into the market so 3 to 5 upside. Jordan, youre still seeing the mentality weve seen for a couple of years now, by those dips more than selling those rallies. Thats right. Think about the financials. Theres still a lack of trust about wall street. Theres a huge European Bank stress test going on now. You would think that steeper yield curve would help the banks. It hasnt. Whats moving today is the large dividend paying stocks, the big caps, the multinationals, the megacaps that havent moved at all this year relative to the small and midcaps and seeing a little bit of a shift. People buying the laggards. Why . Because it is a slow growth, low Interest Rate, low inflation environment and that should play well to the megacaps but people have been chasing vapor going after the small and midcaps and the high growth company. Does that continue . I think it continues well into the new year because youll see new allocation of capital. People are going to realize that even with government dysfunction you can buy Multinational Companies with great brand names and great good will. The tax issue has been solved 12 months ago so why not own good United States based companies. The u. S. Dollar is just basing out. European countries are crisis mode whether its france or italy or spain. And youre going to see money flow into the United States into big cap equities, not into bonds i like the idea of a rotation into multinationals year end. Theyve lagged for a long time because so many are allocating toward this concept where the u. S. Is the best house in a bad neighborhood and thats been really played out, i think. I think now you can look cyclically. We have been buying chemical stocks since the summer and have gotten less cheap but nobody talks about them. Isnt even an etf for them. Multinational Companies Benefit as global pmis continue to expand which is the news we got this week. Let me bring rick into the conversation. The talk about be will twitter tomorrow but will overshadow the European Central bank meeting where the guessing game is whether theyll cut rates. What are you handicapping it in chicago. In chicago theyre all interested in twitter but trulgly, you know, when you put your treasure at risk for young people sticking with facebook or trying to monetize something that people probably arent going to like commercials on, i think the ecb is where you really want to pay attention. Somebody brought up stress tests. Yeah, stress tests are great. Too bad we cant get a real stress test or really kick the tires out enough to see if the body shakes because i think they kick them with ballet slippers, but thats for another day. I think what you want to notice today is, while we have a different candy that we like, today its not the nasdaq, you know, this isnt a good high vitamin perfect content diet. Were relegated to eating candy in the stock market but when youre hungry, you know, i guess it suffices. The yield curve steepening is going on with all rates lower. Watch that 138, 139 in the fiveyear. Many will be disappointed with regard to the ecb. No rate cut so i do think that the dollar index under a little pressure. Probably the correct trade to have on. Thats going to be happening by the same time twitter comes to market tomorrow morning so we have a perfect storm of news coming at that point. I want to bring keith back in here because hes really looking at this market a little more skeptically. Are you shorting the market . Yes, im beginning to actively look for shorts in insurance because i dont like to push back on obama care and the stress tests are not really stress tests, theyre really survival after the fittest and back slap each other for having avoided contagion. But you know the other thing about this rotating into global companies, theyve got something that washington doesnt, theyve got experienced executives who understand how money actually works. So if theres a profit to be had, they can shift their operations around the planet. The government cant do that the only out theyve got is either print, to wait or to repeat doing what theyve been doing to begin with and it hasnt worked. All right. I know you want to jump in on that but we dont have time now. Nodding your head. Youll be around i think keith, i think you just got josh to completely change his mind about this market. Well find out. Im done. No. Hes out. Thanks, everything. Thanks for joining us. Appreciate your time we are in the final stretch of trading 50 minutes before the closing bell sounds and a market is in record territory up 120 points on the Dow Jones Industrial average. 0. 75 . Pretty much on high record watch. Coming up whether theres still an opportunity to buy into this market even at these seemingly lofty levels. Also, the good news on obama care. People who did not have insurance have it but the bad news is they will have premiums to pay every month, up next we will hear from an economist who says the payments could take a bite out of the economy. And then have you heard, twitter is set to price its ipo after the bell tonight, coming up, full Team Coverage of what is said to be surely the years most lively anticipated initial public offerings. Coming up, stay tuned. Tdd 18003452550 trading inspires your life. Tdd 18003452550 life inspires your trading. Tdd 18003452550 where others see fads. Tdd 18003452550. You see opportunities. Tdd 18003452550 at schwab, were here to help tdd 18003452550 turn inspiration into action. Tdd 18003452550 we have intuitive platforms tdd 18003452550 to help you discover whats trending. Tdd 18003452550 and seasoned market experts to help sharpen your instincts. Tdd 18003452550 so you can take charge tdd 18003452550 of your trading. Welcome back. The market is on fire. The dow on track to close at a record high today. The heat is still on, though, health and Human Services secretary Kathleen Sebelius again on capitol hill today being grilled over the obama care rollout difficulty. This as the president heads to texas tonight to talk up his signature law but Bertha Coombs joins us with todays edition of how obama care turns. Bertha. Bill, you know, there are some in the hearing today calling for Kathleen Sebeliuss head right to her face. Interestingly enough the centers for medicare and Medicaid Services cms announcing its chief Information Officer tony trunkle will be stepping down effective next week. He oversaw the payment over i. T. Services and he was according to some documents one of the officials who helped to prove the delay of a full security assessment of healthcare. Gov. Miss sebelius certainly got a lot of heat from both sides. Max baucus warning her that if the website is not going to be fully operational at the end of the month she had better not wait until the last minute to Tell Congress and the American People. Among the most contentious back and forth questioning coming from texas senator john cornyn over if you like your health care you could keep it despite the fact that some documents showed the administration knew there would be a lot of people in the individual market who would be losing their plans. Miss sebelius shot back that the numbers in those documents are inaccurate. That was a look back at how much churn there is in the marketplace. That was not a projection of what was going to happen in 2014. Senator cornyn did not hide his contempt for that answer. The only thing i can conclude is that its impossible to do something in this administration that gets you fired. Its impossible. You can lie to the American People. You can consistently misrepresent the facts, but its impossible to get fired. President obama has maintained his support of secretary sebelius. He will be in dallas this afternoon talking to volunteers and navigators who are helping people sign up but, you know, bill and maria, this issue entered into the political race. There are those who say that the race for the governor in virginia became much closer than expected in part because of this issue about the president having said if you like your plan you can keep it and so many people now finding that they cant. All right. Bertha, thanks very much. Lets talk about this. Shall we. Our next guest suggests obama supporters should be careful what they wish for. People paying their new premium bills beginning in january instead of having that money to spend at storrs like walmart and target could strike a blow to the economy down the sglood yeah, joining us is Todd Buchholz former white house economic adviser to the first president bush also with us our own steve liesman. Gentlemen, good to see you. Good to be here, maria. Explain the theory. Well, look, if obama care fails because of the website, well, then thats terrible for the president. Lets say it succeeds and give it the benefit of the doubt and say the president is right and 30 Million People sign up, and they start getting insurance, but they start paying premiums. Those premiums maybe theyll be a bargain, 100, 200 a month. They havent been a bargain. I see your point. Lets give the president all the credit and say its going to work. Thats by my calculations about 77 billion of spending by consumers that they wont have to spend at mcdonalds and target and ford motor thats a lot of money. More than the president s stimulus plan spent on infrastructure or for tax cuts. It could be in an economy right now where consumers look a little bit shaky, it could be just enough to dislodge us from this tentative recovery. Steve, you on board . Not exactly. And i question todd advisedly because hes taught me about economics over the years through his books. So i just have a few problems with his analysis. Todd, let me start with this. The full amount of money you would not believe is a dead weight loss in that the payment of this premium would come with the use of services so on the one hand you have the ledger of the the payments of insurance, on the other hand theres the use of services that would tend to increase gdp. Obviously theyre not going to spend the full premium but you cant take the full amount of premium spent and count it as a dead weight loss to gdp. Well, i think, steve, you make a right point in the long run or over the course of a year or so. The Insurance Companies get that money. They will spend that money. Right. But in the short term over a three, six, ninemonth period over 2014, those consumers will not have that money they otherwise would have and that is a drag on the economy. I have to tell you last time i was on the program earlier in the year, maria asked me about consumers and i said there are three things American Consumers are buying. Homes, automobiles and greek yogurt. Well, greek yogurt sales are still doing fine but weve had a bit of a lull in housing and autos and im concerned that obama care will add to that. In addition, the question of confidence, the American People and their confidence in whether theyre going to keep insurance is now an issue. I was at the pediatrician the other day, and they handed out these flyers. This is a flier from scripps, right, in california and they told consumers if you have aetna or United Health care they have pulled out of the state of california. Right. How Many American middle class consumers are now concerned theyre going to get an envelope in the mail that will and theyre getting the envelopes. That will defact theyre getting the cancellations notices on. Weve had mark on the post office is doing a great job delivering cancellation notices. To steves point youre only looking at a shortterm impact but acknowledging long term this may be a wash for the economy. Long term, look, is it good for people to have insurance . Yes. Is it good for people to pay for insurance . Yes. But if youre talking about fiscal stimulus or fiscal contraction, those keynesians are supposed to believe this. They should be worried about that. It seems to me, everything youre presenting here in terms of the premiums, you know, going toward Peoples Health care and not going toward consumption, this was something that anyone could have predicted this. Is not a new story. This is wouldnt the powers that be have put this into their own models . Because theyre not so smart after all. Look, you know, president obama came into health care. He was like the miley cyrus of policy. He was young, daring and now the emperor has no clothes so he was determined to do this and who cared about the rest of the economy . Obviously Many Americans when he took office was hoping hed focus more on jobs. He thought this was the priority. Maybe it is the priority, but there are up sides and down sides to this and im here to talk about the risk if obama care succeeds it can hurt the economy. Steve, in the meantime, though, as we get ready for the full implementation of this health care plan, hasnt there been some reticence on the part of individuals and corporations who are worried about exactly what the cost will be and as a result we are seeing some holding back of spending in this economy . Whether or not th

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