That has not hurt the stock market at all today. Of course, the question is, does this bring on tapering . Or is this just one month and we go back to further weakness signs next month. Big question. Well see about that. Terrible images out of the philippines in what might be the strongest storm in reporteded history to make landfall. Damage, devastation and sadly death from this extraordinary typhoon is only now becoming apparent. We have a live report. Well take you there with the latest. 200mileanhour winds as it made landfall. To put it in perspective, last year sandy was 80mileanhour winds. That was bad enough. Also were following developments in the Ongoing Health care law saga, a day after the president s apology to those people who cannot keep the plans they would like. After all, word today the administration is now begun the process of giving many unions a huge break in a fee that was supposed to reduce premiums for everybody else. We have a live report from washington. With reaction and analysis on that as well. What a doment. Lets check markets. What has been a really busy week. The Dow Jones Industrial average, up 15698 on the blue chip average. Nasdaq where were seeing gains as well, pretty good bounce back from yesterday, after 52 point on the nasdaq. Now at 3909. S p 500 broadbased rally there as well. 17 points higher, about 1 . Sitting right now at 1764. This market gaining back a good chunk of the losses from yesterday. Bob pisani, whats behind this comeback . The strong october jobs report again is pushing Interest Rates up. Thats your primary trend this week. Weve had a couple of bad days where rates have moved up. And its hurt Interest Ratesenses ive group. Theres the primary effect weve seen in the jobs report today and some things earlier in this week. Take a look at utilities, for example. You can look at some of the other groups, home builders, telecom, Real Estate Investment trust, emerging markets theres the eem on the bottom, thats all affected. All down for the week, not just today. Because of the idea the Interest Rates go up, you sell off the stock market. Thats not really working today. Yesterday we had the worst day on two months in the s p 500, but sectors beaten up this week the s p up two days. Thats a nice ushaped recovery there. Recovering sectors biotech got hit bad earlier in the week, oil stocks, the xop, its back. Airlines got hit. Its bouncing back. The zillows and netflix, theyre all bouncing back. Another group helping things are the financial stocks. Regional banks are bouncing back because when you have higher Interest Rates, it increases the possibility that banks could charge more for the loans that are out there. So, this rebound, i think, is a sign of some market strength, maria. Every time you get 2 , 3 drops in the Broader Market, you just get an immediate rebound. Good sign for the bulls who are arguing. Youre not going to see a 10 drop in markets. Theyve been calling for a correction for a long time. Were not even close to it. Back to you. Thanks so much, bob. Everybody gather around the water cooler. Here we go with closing bell exchange. Michael yoshikami joins us, as does andres gar see it yeah, russ from blackrock and our own rick santelli. Welcome to all of you. Michael, 204,000 jobs created last month. Why is the stock market ral lig if it increases the chances the fed will slow the morphine drip . Well, because maybe earnings will start to pick up. Maybe the economy is actually healing itself. I mean, at this point we really have a mixed bag. I mean, as you correctly point out when the jobs market comes in strong, obviously fixed income rates go up and thats bad for the bond market. Im of the relief a recovery in economy, while it might be bad for bonds, is great for stocks. I think as long as the rise in fixed income yields is not so vertical, its more of a gradual trend, i think its supportive for the stock market when good news comes in. Andres, lets talk about putting money to work. Youve got a global story here in terms of low Interest Rates. The ecb lowering Interest Rates earlier this week. Whats your take on europe versus euro right now . I think the timing of both the payrolls number and ecb lowering rates, which is not expected, is interesting because if we are going to taper here and potentially see the ecb have to do other measures next year, basically just pass the baton from the fed to the ecb to provide further stimulus. We actually like u. S. Equity stocks, like European Equity stocks. The area wed be more concerned is the emerging market because theyre more rate sensitive because the yield continues to rise. I think its interesting to look at the first reaction of the market when the news came out. It was actually negative for equity markets. Its interesting. I think the market is a quick learn. If you think about june, the market sold off and took a whole month for the market to realize that if the yields are going up for the right reasons, thats not bad for the market. It took a lot less time for the market to rebound. Russ, are you inclined to still be buying in this market as we sit here near alltime highs for most of the major averages . I think you can still buy. With a couple of caveats. I agree with everything thats said. I think stocks can go up. If rates are rising because real rates are rising, but there are segments of the market i would avoid. The ratesensitive bond market proxy. No price utilities, staples, these are down. This is the parts of the market that reacting negatively if real rates continue to grind higher. Those are the markets of the market i want to avoid and emphasize more of a Cyclical Companies that will benefit if we get some strengthening in the Global Economy and in the u. S. Economy. So, whats the trade as rates start going higher . I mean, what is the strategy knowing that at some point these rates are going to bounce and, you know, even if we do 100 basis points, theyre still talking about very low rates, but youll see a move. I think thats right. I think you have to look for alpha. You have to look at cyclical stocks, industrials in the u. S. Financials actually make more money when the yield curve steepens. There are sectors that will benefit from this and there will be ones that will not, such as utilities. Rick santelli, 275, back to twomonth highs but are we going back to that 3 peak we hit earlier than that this year. What do you think . I think so. And it was on this very show, a week ago wednesday, when we kept talking about that 2. 47 in tens. You remember the day. That was the bottom. Up about a bakers dozen on the week. If you look at various charts, whether its the week, last fed meeting, last time up at these levels, i pretty much disagree with almost all the guests. Especially bob pisani. He says, were having a bad day because rates are up. It isnt about whether rates being up are bad or good. Theyre inevitable. What Central Banks are doing will make the adjustment normalization process much more aggressive, in my opinion. Whenever you get days when you get pretty decent data like today, the upside of rates is going to be bigger than days when you dont get great data in term of how they move down. And i dont think that adjustment period, that inevitable normalization is going to be very well liked by areas like stocks. But i only think thats an interim period. I think eventually it will be okay. I wish the fed could see it that way as well. So, are you guys betting that the fed begins tapering sooner rather than later . As a result of a report like todays jobs number . Im not. Im not. Im of the belief that the tapering is still going to happen after whatever happens in january with the budget mess. I think that the fed understands the politics, the dysfunctional politics we have in place. We have a transition of the chairman to the chairwoman. So i dont think its going to be sooner than later. I would be very surprised if they did anything this year. And i think that in all likelihood its going to be more closer to march. Bill, isnt the real question whether they do or not. If you have a lot more days like this, isnt it kind of a moot point . Right. I mean, at some point the fed starts to play catchup, as is usual, right . Andres, what about you . I think march at this point is the highest probability of it happening, but its not a question of when, its if. We know that eventually theyre going to have to. March is forward looking and i think the market is up for that today. You think things are getting better. Does it come sooner than march, given todays report . To a certain extent politics come into play where you have january and february, potentially a debt ceiling discussion. I think the fed might use it as an excuse to wait until march. Whos jumping in there, sflus. I think the more interesting question rather than when is how. Its not just a matter of do you go from 85 billion down to 75 billion, what else occurs . I want to know the distribution between treasuries and mortgages. My belief is theyll cut back in treasuries. Do you also get a change in Forward Guidance . It would be a big sweetener for the market, fen auto you get a tapering, even if theres change in Forward Guidance. I have 20 seconds left, rick. Im stunned you havent even broached the subject of whether you believe todays jobs number. Ill tell you what i believe. The Government Shutdown would have basically raised the Unemployment Rate by 0. 3. The big dropoff based on Labor Force Participation rate neutralized that. It would have been 7 . Now, the point s does that drop like all the other drops based on not counting the unemployed is not a good thing, especially when the fed is using that Unemployment Rate when theyre using it to decide qe or Interest Rates. Thanks. We appreciate it. 50 minutes before the closing bell sounds for the day. A Market Holding onto double digit move up 9 6 points on the dow. Stocks are bouncing back today. Well hear from somebody who says this market had better brace for a correction and soon. But is that a healthy thing for this stock market . We have a contrarian viewpoint coming up. Also, could the surprisingly strong october jobs number force feds to consider that tapering as soon as december, a week before christmas . Merry christmas, everybody. A day after the president s Health Care Law apology, a new story that could boomerang on the white house. The white house may be on the path to giving many yuns a free pass on an obama care fee that was supposed to keep premiums lower for everybody else. Well have details coming up on the closing bell. Welcome back. Big jobs number today, 204,000 jobs created last month, greatly beating expectations. It has some wondering if it could speed up when the fed cuts back stimulus, especially if we get another jobs report like this one next month. Joining us with their disagreement, craig from Vining Sparks says it will be january when this happens. Theyll start to cut back. Larry mcdonald from new edge usa says it wont be until june. And cnbc. Com jeff cox says, it doesnt matter when they will begin tapering. Craig, why do you think it happens sooner rather than later . Good afternoon. I think you have to remember a couple of things. First of all, theres a group of people on the fed who want to end asset purchases because theyre worried about financial stability. The longer they wait, the worse that problem gets. Secondly, theres a group that wants purchases to be datadependent. At the june meeting whether they were ready to taper, threemonth payroll growth was at today its at 202,000. If payroll growth is better, you better go ahead and do it. The third reason, sequester cuts are not crushing economy. We saw that in Third Quarter gdp report. Fourth reason, Government Shutdown did not crush the economy. Every meeting they dont taper, the markets grow more and more concerned they cant taper. So i think they want to taper sooner rather than later. Larry, you dont think they will. You think theyll hold off on the taper. I dont think with a new fed chairman coming in, ms. Yellen, chairwoman, i dont think they taper before she comes in in late probably late january early february shell number her seat. March will be her first meeting. Yeah. So, in other words, i dont see any taper possible before that. Also, the Economic Data, if you look at the overwhelming majority of the economic date tashgs you look at goldman economic surprise index, thats been in a twomonth low recently. A lot of data has been soft. Theres not enough evidence of recovery yet. And this time last year, we were doing well over 200,000 jobs a year. Over the course of a year, weve had mixed jobs data. I just think we get a taper until may to june, maybe evlate in the year. Wow. This is what i love with economics. Can you do whatever you want with statistics here. Jeff, why do you say it doesnt matter when they begin tapering . Look, i think that the market has kind of moved past this whole taper scare. I think thats what happened back in may when bernanke first raised the issue. I think the big thing you look for is just the market reacted, you know, kind of kneejerk back in may. I think theyve come to grips with the fact this taper can come any time. Thats not whats driving things. One of the guests from the past segment talked about Forward Guidance. Interest rates is what its all about. I reported this week, and i feel very strongly that the fed is going to lower going to extend Forward Guidance and lower that threshold for the Unemployment Rate. Bring that down to maybe 5. 5 , 6 , before they even consider raying Interest Rates. I think the other thing is, just qe3 hasnt had that much to do with the market moves. I really believe its been stock market buy backs. Its been cheap financing. The market just wants to see some stability in the rate structure. And the taper thing to me is just subtrafuge. What about to marks point, it gets out of their hand and they lack credibility. The credibility is a whole different point. I agree with that very much. I think thats why they may go ahead and taper. My initial thesis is that the taper is not going to be a big marketmoving experience. I just believe the markets if they want to taper in december, if they want to taper in march, thats fine. What theyre going to be looking for is to see highway does the rate structure work here. I think the fed is almost getting to the point where theyre emboldened, where they just dont see those were continuing to cook the books as far as inflation rates go. They kind of just feel like, look, we can go out as far as we want. Also, please, guys, remember, openended. Those were the words used for qe3. So, if they do taper and something goes wrong, theyll just turn it back around again and turn the presses back on again and keep printing again. Reopen the spigot. Absolutely. Two things coming up one, larry points out this transition between bernanke and, perhaps, yellen which doesnt happen until after the first of the year, and budget battle comes in the middle of february. Do you think they risk tapering as they worry about fiscal rangeling in washington . Great points. One thing to remember, because its yellen, we expect to see consistency in Monetary Policy transitioning from bernanke to yellen. Had it been summers, it would have been a bigger issue. As it relates to the budget battle, absolutely, the fed cannot become a slave to fiscal policy decisions. They have to make Monetary Policy decisions on their own accord. So, they cant let that become a big factor. Obviously, they have to take that into consideration. They cant just put off tapering because of that. They have to be beginning it at some point otherwise they lose credibility. To follow up on one thing that jeff said, whats more important, rather than when did they start tapering, is when did they end purchases . I dont think the market thinks theyll end them any time soon that will take a long time. Go ahead, larry. Since we started qe, since we started qe1 in november of 2008, there have been three months in that entire period where they havent been buying bonds, reinvesting cash flows or extending the duration of the portfolio. Only three months. Its pandoras box. They opened it and they cant get it back in. Last word to larry. I would say, the key is, viewers watching us want to know how to trade this. One thing i can say with 100 certainty is the market has been wrong every single time on taper expectations. They were wrong in may. The market thought in may we had qe infinity. They were wrong in september. Two weeks ago they were wrong again. They moved it out and now its back. In other words, the way to make money is to actually fade these different moves. Im a buyer of bonds right now. Bonds have sold off hard. As the taper has moved back up. The expectations have moved back up. If they go back out again, bonds will be a great buy. Im a buyer of gold names here. Gold miners in the gdx. Both of those two indices, investments will do very well if the markets wrong about the taper move up. Gentlemen, great stuff. Thank you. Thanks so much. Thank you, you guys. Appreciate it. Heading toward the close. 40 minutes left in the trading session. Rally continues, up 140 points on the dow jones and s p is up 16. 5 today. Im excited about the next segment. What do the numbers really tell us . Is the economy improving as the jobs report seem to indicate . Well get word from the ground as we hear from enter Continental Division head. Mobile device use has tripled in the past two years. Companies are certainly noticing, racing to get kidfriendly tablets to market. The question is, should kids even have their own tablet . Both sides of that issue still to come on the closing bell. Le le le le store and essentially they just get sold something. We provide the exact individualization that your body needs. Before you invest