A precursor for the rest of the year. Heres the thing. A lot of people will look at us being down. Compare to it 2008 remember 2007 we also were lower on the s p 500 for the first day of the year. But through october of that year it looked great. Its what happened next that raised some eyebrows. We talk about the historical precedence but its just one day. Were not panicking yet. Maybe the dip buyers are still on vacation. For all of 2013 and 2012 the s p 500 was never under water. In other words, it climbed from where it opened a year ago. Well be under water on day one in 2014. We got that going for us here. Also americans children have been hacked. Snap chat is popular among teenagers victim of anonymous hackers who posted information including phone numbers of over 4 million snap chat users. Well explain the wider implications of what happened here. Theres a very interesting wrinkle. Own hackers told snap chat why they hacked in. Obamacare from the ground view. A car dealership in michigan is getting rid of Health Care Coverage for its workers and handing them a check for 2400 and sending them for the state exchanges. The owner of that dealership is here exclusively. He has a handful of employees. Hes a Small Business and this is his solution. Hes got a very thoughtful plan for his employees. Its one to watch as a lot of other employers may follow suit. Lets take of markets right now. Big declines across the major indexes. Dow down. 8 or 137 points. Back below 16,500. Heres a look at the s p 500 which is shedding about 17 points at this juncture. Down to 1830. Nasdaq is also under pressure. In fact the breadth of the decline is pretty impressive down almost 1 at 4138 and oil we should mention closed down 3. A lot of things happening in this space as the ten year dips down below 3 . Investors should be worried about the rest of the year right . Recent history, if thats any if past is prolog as we like to say what does bob pisani say about all that besides happy new year. Thank you william. Happy new year. The reason everybody is talking about this first day omen its been accurate but only recently. Put up the full screen. Since 2009 to 2013 the first full days have all been up and the s p 500 has been up each year and in 2008 there was the first day down and full year was down. Doesnt necessarily have that long of a history. Traders dont use this first day warning as much as an omen. What has more lore associated is first five days of the trading year. Theres 39. The last 39 up first five days has resulted in full year gains 33 times. Do the math. Thats about an 80 accuracy level and were going back for many many years. Thats got a lot of legend and lore on wall street. The big one is the january barometer. That looks at january for the whole year. As goes january so goes the year. Since 1950 and now were going back more than 60 years now theres only been seven major errors in that up or down as january goes the year. The accuracy level has been about 88 . Theres a real wall street legend. Guys back to you. Bob, thank you very much. Lets talk about todays action and where we may go from here for the rest of the year. Joining us in our Closing Bell ExchangeHeather Hughes rich Peterson Michael gayatt rob morgan and our own Rick Santelli in snowy chicago where are you going to get home tonight . Absolutely. One way or the other. Yes. Snow shoes. Anybody has sweating palms . Heather hughes. Always. Why come to me first . Happy new year. Happy new year. What do you make of the selloff today . Should we make anything of it . Every day i pound the pavement. Merrill lynch, morgan stanley, ubs, we talk about rebalancing in january and of course we know you want to lock in those long term gains. They wait until now the lock in long term cap gains for sure. Michael, at the same time we shouldnt overlook we got a lot of data overnight. Pmi indicators from around the globe which held up okay. You can point to china and france indicating some weakness. Anything in the data that spooked investors. Theres concern about emerging markets and thats not benefiting from the rebalancing that would occur today given that there were laggards last year and heavier selling today. This is just one day not to panic too much. Whats interesting last year emerging markets on the s p peaked out on the first trading day of the year. I wonder if were seeing the bottom of 2014 in emerging markets relative to the s p. The data looks okay. I dont think youll be too concerned Going Forward about the suppliers in these developed markets. Rich what do you make of the selloff here and what it will mean for the january barometer, for example . Sure. Bill, in the introduction you talked about the past being prolog. Since 1997 77 of the time december was positive so too was january. The numbers we look at will be two numbers. 7 instead of 4. 5 . 7 the unemployment rate. Well see whether that falls below 6. 9 or lower and 4. 5 is the current mortgage rate. How that affects housing Going Forward. More importantly next week we kick off earnings season on thursday january 9th. Strength in telecom and. Financials. So were looking for an s p 500 to earn about 120 a year in 2014. Current multiples, 15. 3 times. Not as high. Go back to 2000 look back ten years ago, 2004 18. 6. Valuations are a little bit elevated they are not excessive. Rob morgan youre underweight in energy. Oil gothamered today. Why Energy Stocks are underperforming. Is it a one day move or in line why youre staying away from the sector . Interestingly enough kelly, i think the dollar will rise because Interest Rates will be nudging up and that in the long run will be bad. Interest rates going up. Dollar going up. Bad for energy and materials. Surprisingly enough though today we saw a little conflicting movement out of that. But i think in the long run for this year oil and gold prices are going to be lower at the end of the year. You raise an interesting point. Theres some strange anomalies in the market. The dollar looks stronger and gold is popping 20 bucks. Any theories . That i dont know kelly. It is a very strange day. I think a big part of it is the fact i think half of the professional traders are still on vacation today. The volume is very light. You talked about in particular the chinese pmi being negative. Slightly negative news on a low volume day that drives us down 100 points or so. Speaking of negative the reason gold is doing that theres a sense were heading for negative real rates. That was a real dilemma last year. What would drive that michael . Whats the catalyst for that . Yellen coming in officially as the fed chairwoman just to get Inflation Expectations juiced up. Theres a huge disconnect between stocks and expectations. We have a great convergence coming in 2014. That gap will close between stocks and inflation. If that happens gold should benefit. Dollar may not strengthen. Rick santelli about this anomaly as kelly put it. The dollar rising and gold rising today and ten year still above 3 . If you look at rates all you had to do was see the down trade that was going on in the equities because even with all the strange relationships we have in managed markets one reality shown through and thats the selfadjusting mechanism of rates being sensitive to weakness in stocks because maybe it means weakness in the economy. As for the there are, listen once again relative value is the dollar between the euro pound and yen and im not sure you can garner the normal fundamental information. As for gold and the dollar ponder this our one guest said hey, we saw Interest Rates move up and the dollar too but that really isnt the case. When Interest Rates started to move up rapidly both in may and november the dollar index was actually losing ground. Why . Because it became more euro strength than dollar weakness. Its the relative value of the currencies that give you a lot less information than you think and as far as one of the main drivers, everybody is enamored with stabilization much europe. Take france. Numbers werent good. Everything that has Francois Hollande s fingers on it hasnt helped france i want will hurt france. I continue to say just because were not looking at a fat tail situation in europe doesnt mean that the activity there is going to be par. Most likely going to be subpar. Michael, you just got back from paris. Im sure you were there doing economic research. What did you find . I found the macaroons are ridiculously expensive. On ricks point thats true. Were seeing again with this deflationary pressure in europe. Draghi will start with these negative rates floating around. Dont discount how serious these deflationary pressures are and how disconnect u. S. And european stocks are from that deflation pulse. Folks heather, finish it out. I think much of what people believe about qe has been mistaken. We boosted the monetary base. When you get a pick up of circulation and velocity of money, hence Consumer Confidence in spending then yes i will think that i do think well get an uptick in inflation. Thats kind of what michael is saying. Might see Inflation Expectations pop. Well see. Thats guys. You got it. Thank you. Wall street and the rest of the northeast bracing for a monster, what were told is going to be a monster snowstorm, record low temperatures all at the same time. Already freezing outside. Pretty cold. Expect Light Trading tomorrow because many might be snowed in and frozen out. Sara joins us now. Reporter good afternoon, bill and kelly. As much as ten inches of snow expected here in new york city as crews prepare for the worst. They already got salt spreaders out on the roads and about 1,000 snowplows standing by. Already about 500 flights have been cancelled in area airports and airport authorities are expecting many passengers to be stranded overnight. They are preparing for that right now. Meanwhile residents of the tristate area hurrying to the store to buy snow shovels, food water, in preparation for hunkering down and waiting out this bad snowstorm. Now, they are saying to be sure to stay off the roads if at all possible. If you must go out pack a flashlight, pack food pack water. Be prepared in case the storm shuts down freeways like it did last year stranding passengers and cars for hours at a time. This is the first storm of 2014 and expected to be doozy. Stay inside if at all possible and stay warm. Sara thank you so much for joining us. Good friend of mine lives in boston spent the last two weeks for this holidays in hawaii. Flew back yesterday. Good timing steve. We should keep an eye on the battery stocks. People are already stocking up. Absolutely. Just to be safe. We got 45 minutes left before the closing bell and weve come from a historic year to a telling day in the markets with the major indexes all down and significantly so. A downgrade taking a bite out of apple stock. After a strong run to close out 2013 is it time to get out of apple or get back in again . Should you fire your Financial Adviser and let sky net handle your portfolio. Well hear from a Top Executive of one of them to make the case. Some employees at extreme dodge in jackson, michigan are not having a happy start. Their Health Insurance plan was cancelled by obamacare and the dealer is giving them cash instead of sponsoring a new plan. Some like it. Others do not. Not so much dealers the dealers owner will explain his business decision joining us exclusively when we come back. Youll want to hear this. Youre watching cnbc first in business worldwide. Welcome back. How is everything . Theres nothing like being your own boss and my customers are really liking your flat rate shipping. Fedex one rate. Really makes my life easier. Maybe a promotion is in order. Good news. I got a new title. And a raise . Management couldnt make that happen. [ male announcer ] introducing fedex one rate. Simple, flat rate shipping with the reliability of fedex. [ male announcer ] this is the story of the dusty basement at 1406 35th street the old dining table at 25th and hoffman. And the little room above the strip mall off roble avenue. This magic moment it is the story of where every great idea begins. And of those who believed they had the power to do more. Dell is honored to be part of some of the worlds great stories. That began much the same way ours did. In a little dorm room 2713. This magic moment welcome back. Weve been hearing a lot about individuals whose Health Care Plans were cancelled because they didnt meet the standards set by obamacare. Now about a car dealership with 40 employees which had to cancel its plan after providing coverage for 37 years. Its being implemented now. The rubber is hitting the road now. Instead of getting a plan the dealers owner decided to cut each employee who needed this cut them a check for 2400 and have them go get Health Insurance on the exchanges or wherever they would find it. Joining us now to talk about this to give us a break down, wesley lutz is president and own of extreme dodge, a dealership in jackson, michigan. Wesley, thanks for joining us. Happy new year. Happy new year to you. Break this down for us. You had 26 employees that needed United States. You had 14 others who had insurance through their spouse. But of the 26 you gave them 2400. What did they do with that money first of all, because i have less than 50 employees, i have no responsibility fromeibility to provide health care. Last year i spent 85 85,800 on health care benefits. In 2014 im not walking away im spending 96,000. You did this basically because there now exist as way for people to more easily get their own health plan . 26 of my 40 employees that i provided health care for, you know, they have different income levels, and i wanted to you know, im looking out for my people and i want to give them the most options available. But youre in jackson, mississippi jackson, michigan. Im sorry michigan. Mississippi doesnt have the best options when it comes to the new plans. Tell us what michigan offers for people. Do they feel theres plenty to pick from . I think there are. We had Blue Cross Network which is a Great Network here. We do have a company plan were sponsoring, and they can choose to join our company plan. I think its good insurance and our past insurance was good insurance. We had it for 37 years. 21 of those chose that right . Am i reading this correctly. Thats correct. 21 decided to do it. The other five individuals, four of them have decided not to get insurance, they are all younger people. And one has decided to go under the exchange because it was advantageous for them to be on the exchange. I had four went to the exchange and one did not. So four did not go because they are younger and those are the ones that are for make this plan work overall because they are the ones that are healthy, presumably and their premium dollars are needed to bring the premiums down for other people. What do you make of obamacare overall as a Small Business owner . Do you think this was an unintended consequence or do you think this will change . What do you make of all of this from your point of view . The aca is the law like paying taxes so well conform. You know four years ago my congressman who is now running for governor. He support this law. I endorsed him. I dont think he knew the consequences of this law or i dont think he would have voted for it. Why . Well i mean i brought some examples with me. I have a 62yearold woman in my office that has a Household Income of 45,000. She lives alone. Her out of pocket costs and increase for her health care went from 5800 to 12,500. I dont think that was the kind of person that the aca was supposed to affect. Its interesting too, wesley your 40 employees means youre below the threshhold of having to offer Health Insurance even though that piece hasnt kicked in. Youre doing this almost out of the kindness of our own heart. Again in the past competitively speaking im sure to hire people you have to offer health plans. But in this day of age if this is shifting away from employers in terms of health care why would you offer this next year or the year after . You know what . I think this is a one time i think it will only take a year. Because i think when you start getting the feedback from the law, from the aca i think the elected officials whether democrats or republicans will say this is an unintended consequence. We need to fix this. What do you want to see them do. The 65yearold employee who has this massive sticker shock and shes not alone going from 5800 to 12,000 a year in premiums she has to pay. What do you want to see them do about Something Like that for example . Well i mean personally im going to do the same thing we did when chrysler went bankrupt four years ago. We circled the wagons and i told them we wont lay anyone off or cut wages. There are a lot of great Small Business owners that will handle at any time same way but be very expensive. You think or youre hoping theres some refinement some fine tuning that would go on as they learn about some of these unintended consequences . I totally believe that. I know mark. He was a great congressman. I know he didnt want to see premiums and out of pocket expenses go up. That was not his intention. Everyone should have health care. We all agree on that. Im not sure its really the numbers arent coming out like we thought they would come out. Final point, if all of those young people ultimately have to pay a premium or enroll in one of the health plans that could help the sticker shock for the 62yearold in a year or two down the road . Thats probably true. I have to tell you we found as the workers got over 50 premiums became very expensive. The monthly premiums are more expensive as you get older. So those younger people are willing to pay the 95 penalty for not having insurance this year is that what they are going to do . Thats what they are going to do. Well talk them into joining the exchange but thats what they plan on doing. I want to know what they are planning to do with the other 2300. They do get to keep it. Thank you for your time. Thanks. Heading towards the close, gettin