Transcripts For CNBC Closing Bell 20140103 : vimarsana.com

CNBC Closing Bell January 3, 2014

50 points after that first day selloff yesterday. The dow has been up and down today. Now adding 50 points as we enter the final hour. Keep an eye on the nasdaq which is in the red. Its had the worst performance to kick off the year. A lot of component, apple, gool google microsoft, not holding up well for the last couple of trading sessions. Technology not playing along well this hour. Ben bernanke this hour. Yes we do. Hell be delivering what some characterize as his farewell address. Steve liesman telling us in the last hour the headlines from those prepared remarks. But in a little while, there will be a q a session. Those often can make marketmoving news and it will occur in the final minutes of todays trading day. Well take you there live when that gets under way. Good point. Those headlines didnt move the market when they hit, but we have heard comments which are having more impact on market today. More concerns on the troubled obamacare law. New reports that newly insured people may end up going to Emergency Rooms more not less as the white house predicted. If that holds true that will throw costs way out of whack for this program. Well get reaction from a Top Administration official whose entire job is to get the implementation of this law to be smoother. This is on front page of all the major newspapers this morning, this study you mentioned. It goes back to oregon where they randomly assign some people coverage. The results are pretty interesting for the future of that law. Lets get back to markets right now, though. A look across major indexes. Dow staging lateday comeback. 50 points shy of the 16,500 mark. Take a look at the nasdaq. As we mentioned, it is the laggard today. This year its down by only a couple points. Well see if things turn around there. Finally, the s p 500, some small gains. It doesnt do much to get rid of the selloff we saw yesterday, bill. Again, a lot of people talking about the weakness in these indexes for today, for yesterday, and whether that how that bodes for the rest of the year. I know its only the second day of the year but its one we keep an eye on here. Joining us lets talk about todays markets in our Closing Bell Exchange with erin gibbs from spi capital, stone, david kudla from mainstay ken mahoney, and Rick Santelli from Rick Santelli asset management. Something like that. Erin kelly and i were talking yesterday, we forget how different the mood was last year at this time going into 2013. I mean, last year there was a lot of fear going into the year. This year a lot less fear. You agree . Yeah to say the least. This year is really the mirror image of 2013. Last year we had nothing but a lot of roadblocks to get over between the sequestration, tax hikes and so on. This year it looks like were firing starting to fire on all cylinders and the expectations are significantly higher. What makes you so confident the indexes will keep rising from here . So the main thing is earnings expectations thats number one. Right now were looking at Earnings Growth of about 10 for the s p 500. So, with those kind of expectations going into the year, we still expect us to be in positive territory by the end of the year. On top of that of course weve got gdp growth finally inching up 3 still low inflation. So we see everything looking towards a positive year. Ken mahoney, you agree . Look i think well have a positive year. Most people expect the s p earnings and growth between 8 and 10 . There is some giddiness with room to concern. Reminds me of late 90s. They would call our office and say, buy me shares of yuhoo . What are you talking about, the chocolate drink . Yahoo. We are getting some calls in the office again. My nephew told me to buy the company that tweets or twitter, whats going on there. No kidding . Thats like our shoe shine anecdote here. Overall, i think the market will go higher. When theres fear, thats Warren Buffett talks about so eloquently. I think the market will go higher. Investors will be tested this year. I think this means more volatility, more correction. I think a good shakeout to test the fortitude of investors this year. It just occurred to me speaking of Warren Buffett, when you compare today right now this period to the mid to late 90s Warren Buffetts buying stocks now. He didnt in the. He still likes valuation. He likes valuation. David kudlow what do you like into 2014 . Nervous . Im not nervous about the stock market maybe not as nervous as others are. We think well have reasonable Earnings Growth with revenue growing 4 , 5 after being flat this year. You know that bodes well for earnings and the opportunity for multiple expansion. And the economy is improving. We expect significant improvement in the economy next year. That takes us to industrials and other cyclicals. The cap ex, we expect that globally companies will be spending will have Capital Expenditures so the cap ex cycle weve been waiting for will and keep waiting. And keep waiting and keep waiting. But we think that finally comes in 2014. And that will help the tech stocks and some of the other capital expenditure, those beneficiaries of cap ex cycle. Todays interesting microcosm or a test of that thesis because financials are doing well and yet technology, again, if you look across the nasdaq the last couple of sessions is really under pressure. Whats going on, david . Well, weve got the selloff yesterday, come back a little today. Probably just some tax loss selling at the beginning of the year. Were not going to make too much of one day. As far as the financials though, thats one of our favorite sectors in 2013 that continues to be in 2014 with Net Interest Margin increasing. We like the banks. We like industrials. We like technology. All those global cyclical plays will do very well in 2014. We get through a couple days of digestion and well see an improving market. Hang on one second. Bill stone, we havent forgotten about you. We have breaking news for just a second. Phil lebeau stepping in with the latest automotive sales news. All the numbers have been tallies. Auto data says the december sales pace was 15. 4 million, thats below what many on the street were expecting. They were expecting something closer to 15. 9 maybe 16 million. The real Important News here is that the total number of sales for all of 2013 15. 6 million. That is the strongest annual auto sales in the u. S. Since 2007. Guys, back to you. Phil all the same that does take the bloom off the rose to see that big of a drop in december. And i understand people are citing the weather on this one. But, you know, that raises hackles for everyone who has heard that excuse in the past. Right. But i think the ultimate thing you want to look at here is the trend, when you take three months at a time. If you look at the threemonth trend for auto sales, it continues to move higher. Lets see, if we see this continue in january and february, then perhaps its time for people to be a little worried about the consumer. Phil, thanks very much. Well see you later. Bill stone, thats the kind of news that we that the markets essentially would have ignored for the most part in 2013 because they were still on the morphine drip at the time. You feel like were going to be focusing more on fundamentals, though n 2014, right . I think we are. But i think hes right to say you do still have to keep in mind the trend. I think what some other people talked about, i think it will be more challenging this year because you do have Higher Expectations built in just because of the valuation of the market. But we feel like the consumers in really good shape, honestly in terms of net worth, gains. Well see at the end of next week what the nonfarm payrolls look like. But i do think it is going to become more Pay Attention to maybe more individual Company Dynamics rather than as much as the macro environment, perhaps like we saw last year. Speaking of that macro environment, Rick Santelli watching the tenyear flitting back and forth between the tenyear level, is that significant . You know, i dont think it is personally, kelly. I think the treasury market at this point is pretty much shadow boxing whats going on in the equity. Equities improve, rates move higher, home base continues to be around 3 . Next week tuesday, wednesday, thursday we get the first set of treasury auctions. 3s 10s 30s 64 billion. That will be interesting. First top tier Employment Data on thursday. I cant see how 2014 is going to be as good as equity markets as 2013. Theres no doubt the empty is improving. I think one guest said firing on all cylinders. I agree but its a sedan versus a lincoln town car. Thats the problem. I think this inventory impact on gdp, that will dissipate quickly. I think by the first or Second Quarter of 2014 well come to realize the solid 3 gdp numbers are probably a little optimistic. Before you we let you finish up here what what kind of response or demand do you think there will be for the treasury auctions next week bearing in mind theyre the first ones being conducted on that scale after the fed announced tapering . You know will begin this month. What do you think . I think the threeyear will go pretty well. I think the longer maturities i would be concerned about so i want to see what the demand is. I know the old argument as ratsz move higher you bring in a new crowd of investors. I think the Duration Risk as we get into a real taper, maybe closer to quarter year, midyear, i think it will take a little out of the longterm demand of the auctions. Erin you get number like the auto sales hit, thats a pretty big step back. Do you read further into that to try to change any tactical positioning as well . No. Again, i do poopoo that a little bit because of the weather in december. And, again just looking more at the trends. So auto sales are not one of our bigger concerns. What about that sector generally . Its been one of the strongest one of the bright spots for the u. S. Economy here. People have been able to get loans, financing is there allied financial may be coming to market early next year. Across the board, consumer discretionary, its hard to find good values. Were starting to look at other sectors for where were going in 2014. All the high fliers from 2013 the internet retails, autos and so on, its challenging to really look at these valuations and say, do i think this is going to be another winner in were going to move on here. We have news getting ready to break. Thank you. Happy new year. Appreciate your thoughts. Meantime, ben bernanke wrapping up his remarks. Theyll get to the q a in a little while. Two more speakers before they get to that. Well wait to see. We knew about the prepared text. No big surprises there, but you never know what hell be asked and what hell say to those questions. Thats right. Definitely stay tuned. Youre not going to want to miss that. Thats all coming up in a couple moments. Meantime, 50 minutes left strengthening a bit, getting back to the highs of the session with the dow now up 70 points. Were back above 16,500 today. The only significant news in the last couple of minutes of disappointment in auto sales. Curious market here. Art cashin keeping eyes on things. Its flat. This buying were not seek a lot of bias one way or the other. He says theyre looking toward the bernanke q a session coming up. Coming up bank of america on google the shares a little lower today. Someone here will join us to explain why, perhaps, the stock brawl is coming up. Also, General Mills is going to begin selling cheerios without controversial genetically modified ingredients. Well look at both sides, whether thats a good thing or bad thing businesswise. If you want better returns for your portfolio, invest in companies with good looking ceos. Marissa mayer. Or jamie dimon. Its fun to talk about, so we want to know what you think about ceo looks and if thats actually something investors should think about. Your best tweeteds will be revealed later on the closing bell. Keep it right here. [ male announcer ] this is the story of the dusty basement at 1406 35th street the old dining table at 25th and hoffman. And the little room above the strip mall off roble avenue. This magic moment it is the story of where every great idea begins. And of those who believed they had the power to do more. Dell is honored to be part of some of the worlds great stories. That began much the same way ours did. In a little dorm room 2713. This magic moment stocks started strong lost altitude and now were seeing a pick up. Airline is a big winner in 2013 and also a big winner today as delta reported better december traffic and passenger revenue. Then the same time last year. Thats leading the whole sector in a big way. All up better than 5 . From travel season to flu season and rightaid higher as well. They saw rose 3 same store sales. Sprint downgraded saying potential merger with tmobile would have a hard time receiving regulatory aimprooufl. The fate of that sector still unclear. Herbalive herbalife after ftc said they would hold a News Conference on weight loss products. General mills will begin producing cheerios without again etdicily modified cornstarch. They said its because consumers may embrace it. Theyre not changing their overall stance on gmos but only for the flagship cheerios product. Coincidence or not, a corporation called green america had been pressuring them to do Something Like this. Yes, they are responding to something out there. Kayla, thanks very much. Lets talk about it. Is it a Good Business decision to ditch genetically modified ingredients . Joining us collin oneil director of Government Affairs at centers for food safety and mark conley not so enamored with this. Collin, why is this a good idea . I think its a strong business decision for the company. Recognizing the two major trends within consumers these days. Consumers want more information not less. And they want foods without genetically engineered ingredients. But i think this is bad for General Mills potentially if it looks like theyre trying to have it both ways. Its only one kind of plain cheerios, not a companywide policy. They still may be tainted by being exposed to gmos and they havent said anything about it more broadly. Doesnt take the savviest consumer in the world to figure this out. Anyone who cares about this issue will look at this and not think theres much more to it. This was certainly a decision made because General Mills and cheerios in particular the Brand Reputation and brand image was on the line. General mills in the past two years has donated over 2 million to fund anticonsumer campaigns to defeat mandatory labeling at the state level. Consumers know this. They received a lot of pressure to do something about it. But it doesnt even apply to honey nut cheerios. I agree. We would love to see General Mills do more and beyond just nongmo and go organic as well. Mark, why is this a bad idea in your view . Its clearly a risky move. On the one hand were saying were giving consumers what they want but are we really giving them what they want . Were giving them what people are telling them they want. I think if we add the gmfree label we should add a note saying were using a lot more pesticides on american farms. One of the benefits of gm crops is we use more pesticides. It comes down to do consumers feel safer with something thats been sprayed by a pesticide or engineered to be pesticide resistant. Shouldnt the labeling be there for those who really care about this issue . Thats really the question. Is this the implication of this move is that genetically modified free crops are safer. And what we dont know is whether they are. Ive got three kids. I would love to know whether its safer. Does it matter if consumers have enough of an issue they would at least like to say you know what, i want to express my preference to avoid genetically modified crops. Shouldnt a Good Business respond to that and take advantage of it . The question is what are they really responding to . If we told americans the truth were going to apply a lot more pesticide and a lot more pesticides in their food and river, they would have a different attitude. Gmfree is a cute buzz word but doesnt tell whats going on. You can tell from the line of questioning, im on the fence. I was telling kelly earlier, am i going to get sick if i eat genetically modified foods . First things first. Genetically engineered cropses have increased pesticides on american farmland. Weve seen an increase in over 300 Million Pounds of pesticides as a result of adoption of genetically engineered crops. I dont want to get my aside cart on that issue. Thats certainly important but the big picture s the reason any company would suddenly say theyre not going to do this is because people fear the impact it will have on their on their beings by eating this food. Am i going to get sick by eating genetically modified foods . To answer your question we dont know because theres no premarket safety assessments conducted by the food and drug administration. And in the absence of mandatory labeling, we have no tracking of any health consequences. If there are any Unintended Health effects, whether they be allergies or any other health effects, we cant track them. And Health Professionals cant track them. I have to agree with that. Yeah, you agree with that right . If theres one thing wrong with activist and environmental movement, theyre demanding labeling without evidence. What we need is more evidence this almost goes back to the issue when it comes to for example, banks, whats wrong with tans parency. Tell us whats in the food so we can make our own label. If gmfree labels say contain more pesticides thats fair. 99. 9 of genetically engineered crops grown in the u. S. Produce pesticides or can withstand exposure to pesticides. They sell more pesticides. Thats what the gmo machine was designed for. We get these buzz words marketingwise. I mean organic. What exactly does organic

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