At t and yahoo reporting after the bell five ten minutes afterwards so well have plenty of coverage on that. Earnings continue to be a theme all day. We have also got an eye on the nasdaq which is lagging again today. Part of that has to do with the intersection of two stories right now. The stock story of the day no doubt is apple which has been crushed. Lets look at the shares at the moment. Theyre down 7. 6 . A big move for this name. There are some people who believe this is a buying opportunity. Carl icahn buying half a billion dollars worth again. We have someone joining us who says carl is going to take a bath because apple is going down to. Hes hear to make that case. Were also two hours away from a crucial decision from the central bank, not our central bank talking about turkeys central bank. You need to care about this because the decision it makes will have ripple effects on your money right here in the u. S. Its all part of the emerging markets mess the currency things that are going on over there, possible contagion. Our Michelle Carusocabrera is on the ground live in turkey kelly, with the latest. Wow. Lets take a look at markets as we head into this final hour of trade. The dow poised to snap a fiveday losing streak. Its adding 92 points at this hour. The nasdaq as mentioned, lagging a bit as apple comes under pressure. Its up 11 points to 4094 and the s p 500 adding about 10. A decent performance this afternoon, 1792 is the level there. Lets talk about these markets in our closing bell exchange. Joining us kim forest jason pryde,ed to salamon and Michael Pinto and our own rick santelli. Gentlemen, lady welcome to one and all. Michael, let me begin with you. I know well have plenty of time to talk about the emerging markets and apple. Lets talk a little bit about the fed and the likelihood that the fed will continue its taper even if it doesnt, it does seem likely that the Federal Reserve is going to pull back on its stimulus this year. Do you think the markets and the economy can withstand that . Well no i dont at all. Portfolio strategy is now 90 cash. I will be shorting stocks this week or next week. I think the fed has engendered a phony economic recovery based on reinflating asset bubbles, particularly home prices and equities. I think they will be tapering into falling economic strength and i think that ends very badly for the economy, earnings the market. Todd whats your take . Well we like to hear expectations. We at schaefers investment research, we like to go off expectations. Its part of our investment strategy. If you look at i think there is a lot of caution out there in terms of the economy and the impact on stocks. You look at for example, in the Options Market all the portfolio protection trades out there is Fund Managers are cautious. You look at Short Interest. It was just reported today, in fact that Short Interest on nyse stocks was up 3 in the first half of january. Thats been at a high level for the pastself months since selfveral months since the fed hinted taper was on the horizon. In other words, theres still a lot of worry out there a lot of worry to climb . Is that what makes you more optimistic . The market seems to be telling a different story as far as forecasting what the economy will do what Company Earnings will do Going Forward than the opinions being expressed out there. So jason, let me bring you in jason, if i might. Michael paints a pretty dark picture. Todd seems to be saying theres a lot of caution out there. A little caution can be sometimes a good thing, no . Look this is a natural point to see this in the market. Weve been through a pretty rough period over the past three, four five years. Its hard to get everybody back on board. The economy is barry rekoferely recovering. Its making some progress. The fed is doing exactly what it should have done. It should have provided as much stimulus as possible to stimulate deleveraging and now were getting back to normal. The aggregate amount the aggregate amount of debt to income has come down across the world. All the metrics show it. I hate i dont want to talk over you, sir, so please. The aggregate amount of debt thats what you just did. Its there has been no deleveraging. If if you look at household as a percentage of income its at 105 its my turn now. Just a second. Just as a look at Consumer DebtConsumer Debt started in 2010 at 140 of the disposable income. It is now down to 100 of disposeable income. Its coming down. In 1980 it was 45 . All right. Agreed. And we also had 15 Interest Rates. Lets forget about the fact that the government has releveraged to the tune of 17 trillion. Kim, whats your take . How do you see things . I see things that im supposed to find Good Companies to be put in your portfolio. I know this is terribly oldfashioned, but, you know and lets see because i think last year at this time we were equally grim and if you were all in cash you would have got your clock cleaned. I wasnt. Through 2013 and, you know, we did really well because we buy companies that work for their shareholders, and i think thats what you guys are missing with these big macro calls. Good luck with that but, you know what is the bond market telling you . And its the same environment. I find it fascinating today, tyler, because we have been looking at a flattening yield curve and falling rates for most of 2014 which is very counterintuitive, but today looking at intraday of fives, their yields are down a basis point. The chart of fives to 30s you can see theres steepening going on. That probably has imimpliplications for market perception. The buybacks are most likely going to be less and the dollar index is pretty stable and pursuant to this conversation what are we 62 63 months into zero Interest Rates and the fed was very successful in the toothpaste dynamic. They squeezed us owlall down the tubes in the riskier assets because they bought the safest ones in the form of treasuries. Now its going to reverse. And whats the riskiest of the risky . The emerging markets. It makes sense on many levels. Maybe the fed will pull it off. No they wont. Maybe well ride the bike straight. Its not my thought but you never know. Well never know until we get fi years one at a time. Five years of 0 Interest Rates, a 4 trillion fed Balance Sheet, and everybody is pretending they can just exit without any ramifications and they havent even really started the taper. Its 75 billion, maybe it becomes 65 billion and maybe it comes down to zero by the time we hit the summer but guess what happens to currencies . Guess what happens to Interest Rates . Theres all kinds the carry trade. Of things we dont know. Look whats happening in the emerging market. The last person who knows anything is the Federal Reserve. If youre banking on them, youre going to be very sorry. Jason, how is the feds activity or tightening affecting the emerging markets . Do you see a direct nexus there . Remember last summer when the fed said were going to think about the tapering the emerging markets fell out of bed. Is that what were seeing these past couple weeks . There are definitely connection points there, its hard to ignore that. Theres definitely a connection point to emerging markets and economic activity. This is why theyre proceeding in a 10 billion per meeting sort of pace and judging it on an as you go basis as to how theyre proceeding Going Forward. Its also the reason that they are strengthening their forward guidance. They believe that they can offset some of the impact of their tapering on one hand with a strengthening of basically saying were going to have lower rates longer for as long as we feed them. Anybody that jumps up and down and argues its only a one direction move, that theyre going to put their blinders on and not react appropriately is completely missing the communication. You think he can come back with a bigger buyback down the road . Boy, i will take the other side of that wager. Folks and the fed does not control longterm Interest Rates. A spirited debate as we always like to have. Folks, gentlemen, lady appreciate it very much. Thank you. We have about 51 minutes 50 minutes before the closing bell. The dow is higher by 87 points right now, kelly. But apple is not higher. Those shares having their worst day in a year after posting disappointing iphone sales and weak revenue guidance. Up next well hear from someone who says the selling in this company has just started. You might not believe his price target. Carl icahn will be in trouble if hes right. And also ahead, big earnings from at t and yahoo due out after the bell. We will have full coverage of all the numbers as soon as they are out. And dont forget Carl Quintanilla, john harwood and i will have complete coverage of the president s state of the Union Address at 9 00 p. M. Eastern on cnbc. Keep it right here you are watching cnbc first in business worldwide. Huh, fifteen minutes could save you fifteen percent or more on car insurance. Yeah. Everybody knows that. Did you know there is an oldest trick in the book . What . Trick number one. Lookest over there. Ha ha. Madeest thou look. So endeth the trick. Hey. Yes. Geico. Fifteen minutes could save you. Well, you know. The overall stock market recovering from its recent losses, at least so far today. The dow up 86 points but apple having its worst day in a year after reporting its earnings last night, and they werent bad. Jon fortt, why is the fallout so doggone intense . Tyler, its the iphone number and the guidance. The street was looking for something close to 55 million iphones and got 51. Thats particularly disappointing since apple actually built up some channel inventory during the quarter, which brings us to the guidance. 43 billion in revenue plus or minus a billion. Analysts wanted 46. Even with expanding distribution in japan and china, iphone growth appears to have hit a wall and apple seems to be oneer running out of ways to extend existing products. We have the mini the mini retina and the iphone 5c which consumers seem to be taking a pass on. That leaves us looking ahead to new products. Its going to take tens of millions of a new product, watch or tv to really move the needle for a company this size. Frankly, even if they announce something tomorrow it will probably take several quarters that ramp that up guys. Thank you. So what is next for apples share price . Joining us is burt dolman who says apple is headed to 320. On the bullish side is the lou bassinese. Burt 320 a share, really . Yes. Actually that was my target on cnbc asia about ten months ago. I said over the long term that is the eventually downside target. I had given a sell signal on apple six days after the top at 705. That was in late september last year. Why do you say that . The company had record revenues. It sold the most iphones in a quarter it ever has. It had record sales of ipads, and its profits were pretty doggone good . Profit margins Profit Growth has shrunk now four consecutive quarters. Its losing market share continuously. Why would you want to buy a stock that has declining profit margins, declining profit share, is in a very very crowded sector . They made all their money when they had a virtual monopoly on the smartphones. Its a really crowded sector. Nobody is going to win the Smartphone Market anymore. Go ahead, lou. If burt is issuing a sell signal, im issuing a buy signal today. We can recycle the arguments about profit share declining but this is not about a device. An investment in apple is an investment in an ecosystem and what no one is factoring in is the fact that apple is going to become a big player in the mobile payment space. They have one of the biggest user bases there. Says who . If you look at what apple has been done since early 2012 they have been filing patents. They acquired you athentech. They included a biometric sensor in the most recent device. The writing is on the call. The most recent Conference Call tim cook said we see a lot more opportunity with touch i. D. Everyone loves paying with touch i. D. I think thats the key for mobile payments. You need security which apple got with biometrics and you also need people being familiar with the platform and everybody burt does your price target of 320 take into account what we know about mobile payments potentially with apple or not . And would you change your point of view if apple does come out with something aggressive on that front . Kelly, let me say two things. First of all the target its not a price grabbed out of the air. When i set the first downside target was 520, and that was a fibonacci number. We had a rally up to 589 at that point. Then it came down we said now its going to go to 420. It hit 420 and it rallied. After the rally we said we wouldnt touch the stock until there was a three in front of the price. It hit 385 at the low so that was a good buy point for a rally, nothing else. We hear the story about all these wonderful things theyre going to come out with in the future. Nobody really knows what it is but weve been hearing that for two years now under the new ceo. I think this new ceo at apple maybe a twin brother of Steve Ballmer at microsoft. Wow. Lou, let me let you jump in on that. Look at a fiveday chart of apple and a oneyear chart of apple which shows a very different story. But let me get you to discuss two points. You said that when you buy apple, youre buying an ecosystem. Coy have i could have made the same argument about the microsoft ecosystem and the dell ecosystem a few years ago, thats number one, and do you believe a mobile Payment System will be the catapulting product that mimics the products they have had in the past iphone, ipod ipad . Microsoft and dell compared to apple . Absolutely not. They didnt have anywhere near the consumer appeal of apple which is good point. Saving grace. In terms of mobile payments yes, the technology has been converging on mobile payments for years now and its finally reached a Tipping Point and apple has been on the forefront of this. You see them coming out with biometric sensor. Now htc and samsung are incorporating biometric sensors. Its bigger than the number of accounts that amazon and pay pal have the by knowiobiometric sensor is nothing but a fingerprint reader. Computers have that nowadays. Have you seen hp . But apple also has the ecosystem that everyone is familiar with but everybody has a mobile Payment System. Look at what theyre going to come out with. Yesterday the bulls were talking about the fablet. Samsung has had a fablet for the last two years. You talk about remember the diamond re ceo. Rio player. This is not innovation. Innovation for apple is a different color phone, a gold colored phone. Thats innovation . They should listen to their customers. Apple doesnt need to innovate right now. They just have to leverage they dont need to . Look at the stock price. Down 44. They dont need to do something . Guys, with we have to jump. Lou, if youre right, where are apple shares going . I think apple is going to make a run. I cant predict the future but im with carl icahn. This is a nobrainer buying opportunity. Yes, if you dont have a brain, you buy apple. No way. You still havent answered whether or not you have mobile payments factored into your model. On that note i say take two fablets and call me in the morning. Very clever. The dow is up 87 points. Were kind of sitting at these levels. Well watch for more movement as we head closer to 4 00. The s p adding 10 points pretty good performance as the nasdaq continues to lag. President obama will be heading to capitol hill tonight. It is always a dramatic moment when he comes through those doors and the sergeant at arms says the president of the United States. Income inequality will be one of the big pillars of the reach. Up next, we have a preview and the list of the stocks that could benefit from the president s agenda. And General Electrics Ceo Jeff Immelt making a big bet on his company, buying 1 million worth of shares with his own money. Well tell you what signals thats sending about ge and the Broader Market coming up on the closing bell. In todays market, a lot can happen in a second. With fidelitys guaranteed onesecond trade execution we route your order to up to 75 Market Centers to look for the best possible price, maybe even better than you expected. Its all part of our goal to execute your trade in one second. Im derrick chan of fidelity investments. Our onesecond trade execution is one more innovative reason serious investors are choosing fidelity. Call or click to open your fidelity account today. [ female announcer ] who are we . We are the thinkers. The job jugglers. The up allnighters. And the ones who turn ideas into action. Weve made our passions our lifes work. We strive for the moments where we can say, i did it we are entrepreneurs who started it all. With a signature. Legalzoom has helped start over 1 million businesses, turning dreamers into business owners. And were here to help start yours. Welcome back. President obama is set to deliver the annual state of the Union Address this evening, and sheila has three themes investors should keep a close eye on tonight. Thats right, kelly. And the number one thing to watch for today, Energy Independence. Market watchers say any favorable talk about Energy Independence is a plus for the producers and refiners. Look, the president may talk about wind emergency or push construction to export natural gas. That could be a positive for the pipeline companies. Like an excel energy or range resources. Number two thing to watch for, housing finance. If the president actually pushes to expand housing credit or maybe expand those refinancing opportunities, jeff clinekleintop case watch a mortgage heavy bank like we