Transcripts For CNBC Closing Bell 20140212 : vimarsana.com

CNBC Closing Bell February 12, 2014

The next big thing is you will have to stay tuned for that governor. Cisco reporting earnings about an hour from now. The tech bellwether rattling markets late last year with a weak financial outlook. Should investors brace for more bad news or with expectations this low, will cisco surprise us to the upside . Well get you the information first and well have a full analysis as those numbers hit as well. That will probably set the tone for tomorrow, but theres also something thats going to set the tone for tomorrow. A major Storm Brewing in the south, and not even talking about the weather. This one is all about a key vote to unionize a tennessee auto plant, something that has not happened in the south ever. The president of the united autoworkers will be joining us on the closing bell exclusively to talk about whats on the line in that story. Very important coming up here. And here is where we stand in markets as we head into the final hour of trade. The dow is giving up about 50 points at this juncture snapping what had been a strong win streak. The nasdaq, take a look at this, just a couple points lower im sorry, higher. Its the s p 500 which is hitting a couple points lower. 1817. Market resting after the janet yellen rally of yesterday. Joining us on the closing bell exchange, janet engels, keith fitzgerald, peter anderson, bill nickels and our own rick santelli. Janet, are we just waiting for the next move from janet yellen or what happened . Where did the momentum go that wed had for the last four days . Well, it was huge momentum for the last four days, we were over 4 . We had a terrible start to january and early february, we regained part of that. Should be a good year but not one without bumps. Bill, as you point out, we had about a 6 selloff, a 5 snap back and there are plenty of people saying are we ever, for example, going to see stocks fall back to where theyre testing 200day moving averages . The kind of market behavior thats usually normal . I guess the new bear market is now down 6 . People are real nervous on a pull back of that nature and everybody got a little spooked. Here we are 5 back to the upside. And what do you think that means . Are we destined to go much lower from here or is that pull back over . Well, i think we may trade a little sideways. I think with the market rallying, 30 , 35 , a straight line, you get a little bit of a 6 pullback. Now rally back to those levels. I think kind of a sideways market for a couple months makes sense. Earnings are okay but there are still challenges in the marketplace. I think more sideways than a rocket ship rally from here. Peter, do you agree . You mentioned first off yellens testimony yesterday, i dont know whether or not she intended to do this but i think shes given us a great gift, and that gift is were now putting the fed discussion i would say off the front burner and putting it on the back. So to me thats a great relief, and we can start kind of focusing on fundamentals of companies now which have kind of been in the backdrop for the longest time, kelly. You know, we have spent a lot of time wondering what shes going to say, how shes going to say it, and i think she gave us one heck of a presentation yesterday. I mean, its about six hours of discussion that she presented, and we have a pretty good idea i think of how shes going to proceed. That to me means go ahead. Im sorry, peter. Let me just clarify. Do you think the fed is on automatic pilot now as far as the tapering goes month by month. Is that what youre saying . Im saying she has at least told us that not automatic, bill, but i would say right now shes saying, look, things are pretty good. Im not going to rock the boat unless theres extenuating circumstances, but as far as i can see right now im going to proceed with the tapering unless, of course, she needs a back door to let us know if something really outrageous happens, shes going to accommodate that. To me that rolls in a great sense for equities now, and we can start looking at individual stocks. Okay. Rick santelli, you know whats interesting, it was a different fomc member, if you will, who is getting the attention of the wall street journal. Richard fisher. Theyre saying fisher for president. Citing his comments about the amount of money laying fallow and the fact he said fiscal policy is now an enemy of u. S. Growth and policy makers in washington must focus their efforts in providing incentives for businesses to expand. Do you want to be his Campaign Manager . Listen, i agree with pretty much everything he said, but its not unique. In the world that i experience down on the cme floor in chicago, thats the prevalent philosophy regarding the fed. Doesnt mean traders trade that way because they want to make money, and i think janet yellen and her whole continuation perspective is still left a half of a ben bernanke put in place, but i think yesterday the vote on the debt ceiling played a larger role in the way equities traded and for today we came in with china and their trade balance moving to levels close to extremes that we havent seen since 08. Exports are up 10. 8 . I think its all those factors. Interest rates are breaking out. If we settle above 2. 75 in tens, settle above 1. 55 in fives, we are now potentially looking to take back some of the drops in yields which in my opinion were solely, and i underscore solely, because of the weakness in equities. If equities have their sea legs back, i would look for treasuries to resume a slight increase back to the kind of 2. 82 level. Rick, i agree with you. I think the house vote on the debt ceiling yesterday was a big deal for this market, and were waiting for the final vote in the senate which is under way right now. Well get that for you as soon as that finishes. Keith fitzgerald, we havent forgotten about you. What are we to do with this here . Which market is right, the volatility and the pull back we saw in january and early february or this pretty good rally we had over the last four days . I mean, weve had a schizophrenic market so far this year. Well, look, this is like that old Rolling Stones album, the market has its yayas out, washington is out of the way, traders can get back to doing what they need to do. Concentrating on fundamentals. If you can go with companies that have pricing power, you will just fine. Ceos have a handle on this and theyre looking forward like they should be. Yellen has proved shes a bernanke clone. Thats comforting in an odd sort of way. Bill, yesterday on the program we were speaking with jim grant and it was interesting. Among the concerns he raised were some specific concerns about valuations in the Biotech Sector which nevertheless has been a top performer again this year and i wonder if you are bullish on biotech here. Well, biotech is the one group its the leading performing group in the s p. Coming off big gains last year. If you were to question valuations, thats certainly a group to take a look at. The problem is listen, kelly fundamentals continue to be there, then there could be further upside. Well see. Its a volatile group. Rickster . I want to ask that guest, and im sorry i cant tell by your voice your name, but you said now that the government and the fed are out of the way. See, its the out of the way part that is the huge problem and why i think down the road equities will revisit the first part of the year. Out of the way. They didnt solve anything. Its an election year. Establish pop tilitics rule. Were not addressing the debt. We just learned that the deficit for this month is actually a minus sign. It was a positive sign last year, and as far as the Federal Reserve, what, out of the way . Were still buying 65 billion a month. Still have zero Interest Rate policy and were continuing all those and we have gund lock ola thinks its a 50 50 chance qe wont be over in 2015. Now you got them started. It is out of the way. Kick the can down the road. About what happened with biotech . Hang on one second, guys. Are we doing this news now . Are we doing this news now, guys . Scott wapner, you have got some breaking news for us . Hes not good yet. I thought you said it was right now. Peter, you start. Thank you. Let me just quickly say theorizing is great to talk about this, but in the end stock picking always trumps theorizing. Kelly, you mentioned earlier what about biotech. What is our outlook on biotech. Ill tell you this, that in general biotech is extremely difficult to pick individual stocks unless you have a medical degree, unless you have socalled boots on the ground in these research facilities. So to have like a macroperspective on biotech, its very, very difficult to do. If you have that clarity, sure, there are great biotech stocks out there, but you really have to be extremely careful compared to, say, just a general industrial thats been under stress for the past couple years. And, keith, you wanted to respond to rick. You know, the whole rick were assuming that the fed is getting out of the way at this point, right . To be clear, i didnt say the rick solved one bloody thing. I think the fed is making this up as they go along. What i said is they pulled back. Shes doing exactly what the script says. Shes sticking to the script. I disagree with the script. We have millions of people still out of work, we have corporations that are underperforming, we have unemployment going the wrong direction, all kinds of numbers that arent working, but the fact of the matter is wall street actually knows what the disarray is and theyre more comfortable with that than they are with washington meddling with things and i think thats a good thing. I kind of agree with that. They dont like the disarray, they like the money. Its raining money for of course it is many of the top wall street firms and they wont question the fact that the world is a bit out of phase in terms of the process that allows them to do so. Exactly, exactly. You and i are Kindred Spirits on this one. I think washington is a mess. Theres no adult supervision. The fact of the matter is that theyre going to go on about their business. But you and i also both know coming from the trading world that we do that its traders who have to make the decisions. I dont care what the academics say. At the end of the day youre either green or red. I say its time to go play ball. Well, we have to play some more ball some place else because we have some breaking news. Thanks, guys. Appreciate your comments today. We have some breaking news on dow chemical. Scott wapner joins us now. What can you tell us . Thanks so much. Now im ready. I do have more on the latest developments regarding dan loebs third point and dow. Loeb was asking for dow to split up into two divisions. Dow said today they had done this review, that that was not productive. Essentially rejecting dan loeb. Third point saying the following in a statement i have just received. They say dow has asked shareholders to accept its word that third points proposal to split the petro and specialty chemical businesses would not increase value. Unfortunately, dows lack of transparency means we know neither the methodology nor even the advisers used to arrive at that decision. Transparency is essential considering dows undistinguished track record of Capital Allocation decisions. Third point going on to say they are prepared now to sign a nondisclosure agreement to review and discuss the analysis that led dow to those conclusions. We look forward, they say, to having a constructive dialogue among our own financial advisers. Ceo of dow and dows board which we believe, third point says, can ultimately result in significant value for all shareholders. So thats the latest development in this ongoing story. You see what the stock is doing right now. It is down about 1. 5 . It has been down throughout much of the day once dow did release that statement this morning saying that they were in effect rejecting dan loebs call for the company to split. Now dan loeb fires back. Bill . All right, scott. Thank you very much. Thanks, scott. Lets go to washington now. This other breaking news we were alluding to earlier on the debt ceiling vote in the senate. John harwood, we have the vote now, yes . Bill, the United States senate is now passing the debt limit increase that the house passed yesterday. Weve gone over 53 votes, dont have a final tally yet. There was some drama on the vote to end the filibuster because this is one of those deals where nobody really wants to vote yes but they all want it to pass. They had to figure out who was going to do it. The Senate Republicans ended up having kind of a buddy system and instead of just having the votes needed to get a filibuster, they had twice that many. So you had 12 republicans voting, including mitch mcconnell, who has a big primary fight. It was a bold move by mcconnell but thats part of the responsibility of leadership. Now theyre on final passage and it appears it will pass with all democratic votes to give the debt limit increase that treasury said we need in a couple weeks. This is what markets were expecting, what markets wanted to have happen, so its now a fact. John harwood, any sense of the reaction yet from ted cruz . Well, ted cruz lost, and ted cruz is going to continue to use this issue as a rallying cry, but, you know, weve seen the limits of his power, the limits of the tea partys power in the house on this. John harwood with the vote count at this juncture, an important one. Thank you. The markets may have rallied on the news yesterday but thats not happening today for the senate. Theyve already factored that in, i guess, but the dow is down 46 points. We were down 66 at the low of the session as we head towards the close. I believe this does now put the next issue of the debt ceiling off until arefter the midterm elections until march of next year. A dire warning about the Banking System from a world renowned expert. Take a listen. What we might discover is what ireland discovered or what iceland discovered, that they are almost too big to save, that they can really take down economies. Up next, her solutions to this important problem and we will get reaction from dick kovacevich. Opportunities arent always obvious. Sometimes they just drop in. Cme group can help you navigate risks and capture opportunities. We enable you to reach Global Markets and drive forward with broader possibilities. Cme group how the world advances. Cozy or cool meow or woof . Exactly the way you want it. Until boom your mattress a battleground of thwarted desire. Enter the sleep number bed. An innovative design that lets couples sleep together in individualized comfort. Hes the softy his sleep number setting is 35. Youre the rock, at 60. As your needs change, you can adjust your sleep number bed, so you can sleep better together. Visit one of our 425 stores for the the largest closeout event of the year with 50 savings on Innovation Limited edition beds. Know better sleep with sleep number. More breaking news. This time on obamacares enrollment totals. Bertha coombs has the latest tally for us. Thats right, bill. The Obama Administration releasing the numbers as of february 1st. They say some 3. 3 Million People have now signed up for coverage. When you take a look at where they anticipated they would be as of february 1st, they still tall about 1 million short. However, in the month of january 1. 1 million signed up. That was more than they had anticipated originally, and 27 of them were young adults between the ages of 18 to 34. Thats a 3 percentage point increase from what we saw in the first three months. Taking a look at the realtime tally, a number of states have offered more realtime pictures calculating from the cnbc team with those state numbers, the numbers now in realtime are at about 3. 5 million. Thats about the halfway mark where the cbo had officially anticipated the administration would land. The cbo now expects that by march 31st we will see some 5 Million People signing up on those exchanges. Back to you. All right, bertha, thank you very much. Back to the market now where the dows fourday rally is in jeopardy. The dow down 38 points right now. Dom chu, whats moving today . Were going to start off with a big name, Owens Corning moving higher after they posted better than expected Fourth Quarter earnings boosted by a return to profitability of its insulation business. So a big story there for Owens Corning. A different plan for well care health plans. Reported weaker than expected Fourth Quarter results as higher medical benefits expenses overshadows their sales growth. And far racy and a steeper th expected drop in Fourth Quarter profits. It also said sales would be flat in 2014. Now, finally, you would think names like jpmorgan, bank of america, citigroup, all you can see there moving at least a little bit but still those big banks a focus for a lot of investors as the financials struggle to get back to even for this year. Back over to you. Thank you very much. Lets stick with the banks. One of our next guests says the system is far from fixed and that the Financial System could go down in flames again sooner than we think. With us is anna admani. The author of the bankers new clothe clothes. And also with us, dick kovacevich. Professor, what is your primary concern with the u. S. Banking system today which some will say who are involved with it, that they actually think this is the soundest weve had the system in years or even decades. Well, it could be the sountest in decades but the question is, is it sound . Thats my question. Is it sound enough . Is it as sound as it can be, should be . Thats my question. What is it that worries you about the Banking System right now . Can you give us an example . Yes. What worries me is a number of things. Im worried about too big to fail banks. Thats a very huge problem. Im worried about derivatives. And im worried about the ricks we dont see that are taken with way, way too much borrowed money so, therefore, is kind of fragile. Let me zero in on too big to fail. Is this a metric you use that tells you that theyre too big to fail . Well, the signs are all over. The signs are all over. Maybe eric holder can take the statement back, but he did say probably what they are thinking, which is what they should be thinking, what would be the effect on the system . So when they start thinking that, you know something is wrong. Thats just one thing. Dick kovacevich, you agree, banks should not be too big to fail, but you dont think they are right now, do you . No.

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