Transcripts For CNBC Closing Bell 20140214 : vimarsana.com

CNBC Closing Bell February 14, 2014

141 points. The question is why do you embrace it . Also, more reaction and fall out after the merger between comcast, our parent, and time warner. If that deal will be approved, it has to get past the objections of minnesota senator al franken, and he will be here to tell us why he wants the government to stop comcast from buying another large cable operator. Forget all the flight delays and the cancellations due to the weather. It may only get worse even when theres not a cloud in the sky. Why . Well, theres a shortage of pilots here in the United States right now, and that could mean that youll be paying a lot more to fly. We have a pilot here to tell us why its happening right now and it could make you angry because it is really avoidable. People wondering why were at a 25year high cancellation for flights. Now lets take a look at the markets. The dow is up 142 points at this hour. Thats a little less than 1 . 16,170 is the level there. Take a look at the nasdaq. Even though the point gain isnt that impressive we are sitting at a 13 1 2 year high. Theyre adding 9 points to 4,250. The s p 500 to 1,841 which puts it within 7 points of its alltime closing high that was set in the middle of january. Crazy. Lets bring in our panel. Does that music sound russian to you . Vaguely. Bring in our panel today. Kyle harrington, Scott Cavanaugh from first foundation, rich peterson from s p capital iq, Heather Hughes from Center America funds and our own Rick Santelli. Heather, i cant decide which is worse. Being caught in a market that just keeps going down or missing out on a market that just keeps going higher . Yes, youre right. From the sidelines right now we have all this negative data, right . The weather, the snowstorm, were getting pounded and people are staying home. Yet the markets still continue to go higher. We have earnings, theyre not really stellar right now. 65 a beat on the expectations side. Yet the markets continue higher. So things are looking okay right now. You know, in terms of equity, mutual fund flows, 3. 34 billion this week marking again the eighth consecutive week of equity net Equity Mutual Fund flows. But there are still a lot of individual investors who have avoided this stock market either waiting for a pullback or being skeptical of the rise weve seen so far. Youre right. A lot of investors, theyve been cognizant of this bull market over the past five years. If you have been waiting on the sidelines, you have missed 175 return in the markets, and theyve flocked to the safety of bonds and now theyre reevaluating. Even with the market surging 30 last year and theyre saying, maybe we should take a look and reallocate even in february. We know that trend was big in january, as always. Kyle scott, who wants to talk about the u. S. Dollar and the changing behavior weve seen where if you go back to the end of last year, we had yields moving up, stocks moving up, the dollar was strengthening. Its not the case right now. The dollar is a little weaker, thats why gold and some of the other things are getting a bid. How important is that . Who wants to grab this one . Ill be glad to take it. Go for it, scott. The tenyear has moved back down. Its very important to look at the dollar. From my perspective, thats basically where the markets have rebounded the way that they have. At the same time you have seen the tenyear go back down. I sent Rick Santelli an email about that very scenario about the steepness of the yield curve. From my perspective, i think everything is being driven off the dollar right now. Can i follow up on that, scott, real quick . Here is my question. If thats the case, are these gains nominal . Are they of lower quality, in other words, than if they were happening when the dollar was strengthening at the same time . Speaking to heathers points, corporate profits have been okay so far in the First Quarter. I am still concerned. I would look at it and say i think were more in the latter innings than we are in the early innings in terms of a bull run in terms of markets and were still favoring large cap value. Rick, what did you think of scotts email about the steepening of the yield curve . How did you respond . I thought it was very fascinating because, boy, the last couple years that kept you in the right trade. But for this year, its mostly been the other way, its mostly been flattening. As far as currencies, whether you look at this chart, this is the nikkei versus the dow, divergen divergence. See, i think our weather is giving investors a very good reason to stay long. I just dont know if its an accurate reason. Investors obviously think the weather has had a big impact, but over the next month if data doesnt wear that out, i have a feeling well get back on track and as far as Foreign Exchange, let me see, the pound is at the best level against the greenback since november of 09. The euro briefly traded over 137 today which is the highest level since the first trading day of the year. The dollar index right now, virtually is unchanged from where it closed the end of last year which was virtually unchanged from where it closed 2012. So i think the only Foreign Exchange trade youre supposed to Pay Attention to right now is the cross trade with any currency and the yen. Rick, thats why i bring it up. Curious what you make of this. Weve gone from this point of whatever happened in japan, our markets seemed to do the same thing, to a divergence that rishg is poi rick is pointing out. People who might have put on bets thinking we would go the same way japan has over the last week or so certainly hasnt been the case. No one sends me any emails, but i would like to tell you that i think that in the end the u. S. Equity markets is where you have to be, but investors need to think long term. So we can draw parallels to the japanese marketplace or china, but i think that volatility will continue in these markets. I think we have to put on our seat belt. We have to look at earnings, we have to look quhawhats going o the u. S. And i think you have to think longer term because right now rick and i do agree on this, that this is a stock pickers market. I think you need to be with a trusted adviser to help you navigate through this storm because i do not ill give you a voice mail. Ill give you a voice mail right now. Oh, boy. If the nikkei does any serious trading under 14,000, ill tell you whether or not i really do think that you would see most of the major equity markets like in the u. S. Go to the southward direction. Theyve got a bunch of data coming over the weekend. I would actually agree with kyle on that point, that it is a stock pickers market right now. Rich peterson is always sending us email about earnings and statistics on this market. What about this revival now i was tweeting earlier that wall street has returned to 2013. I mean, the levitation is back again. What do you make of this, rich . In the earnings olympics, the s p 500 have been delivering the gold. The fact is were going to see 7. 8 Earnings Growth for Fourth Quarter. Probably when all Companies Report it will be over 8 . The best Quarterly Earnings from over two years. The fact is a pull back in the First Quarter or last month, the First Quarter numbers have been edging lower, but at the end of the day were going to see strong earnings for 2014, over 8. 2 . Seeing gains in the consumer and you talk about the weather. More important, look at the calendar. This year weve having a late easter. April 20th. The fact Companies Consumers will be out buying things, changing wardrobes as the weather hopefully gets warmer. I think at the end of the day, valuations are reasonable. Were maybe 15 times forward pe. The prices were seeing are a lot of m and a activity with comcast. A lot going on. And cash on the balance sheet. Theres 1. 3 trillion in the s p making up 11 of assets. So as the markets and the macro data do improve, it may persuade management and ceos to rethink a little. Whats so funny is its not the cash really that seems to be driving activity here. Its the fact they can borrow, they can issue dividends. The amount buy back stocks. The am of companies where were seeing arbitrage in terms of the financial side of things, the stock swaps, its almost like the cash becomes irrelevant to some of the activity were seeing. Heather, what do you think it will take to bring that Retail Investor back to this market . Confidence. Aside from jobs we need confidence. Consumer spending is the backbone of the u. S. Economy. Thats most important. We have some clarity in washington on the debt ceiling. Maybe some clarity on monetary policy. That looks promising but we need confidence to propel the markets higher and persuade the ceo and management of companies to reinvest their cash positions. And warmer weather. Clear avoidance. Warmer weather. Please, please, let there be warmer weather. I had to shovel myself out this morning. I got stuck in the driveway. Youre not alone. In heels, yes. In heels. Im impressed. Email us a picture, would you . No, keith is doing to get kyle is going to get the email. Yes, i want my email on valentines day. You got it. Yes, sir. Thank you, everybody. Have a great valentines day. Thank you. See you later. You, too. Even as we have been watching the broader markets, under armour is under fire because speed skating suits theyve made that some think is why the u. S. Team is disappointing are now becoming more of an issue. The Speed Skating Federation seeking the option to switch them to an older version of under armour suits. That move has put the stock under pressure. Its down 2 . Dom chu is back at hq with the latest. Its not a pr good thing for under armour. Dow jones is reporting the Speed Skating Federation is looking at those options. Whether or not it can switch its suit midOlympic Games. This after those complaints from skaters about under armours hightech suits. The u. S. Olympic skaters are split, 50 50 on whether the new hightech suits are a problem or perhaps are good for the skaters. Were watching the scarce of under armour down 2 . Those shares have been down much of today on this developing story. A ruling on the new suit switch is expected within hours. So when thats headlines do cross, of course, well bring you up to speed on those details. Kelly, bill, right now certainly not a good amount of pr or under arm your armour. The skaters didnt train in those suits . Didnt they have a sense ahead of time . I dont understand this. It sounds like a scapegoat at this point. They trained in other suits. Thats what they were saying before. They maybe set their marks, their time marks earlier in the season and beyond with older versions of the suit. Thats the reason why the controversy is here. All right. Were going to try to talk about it more next hour as well. Dom, thanks very much. Well watch that one into the close. We have about 50 minutes left to go. Here the dow is up about 136 points and the nasdaq at 13 1 2 year highs. Were taking the big show and chili burgers coming. This incredible run of severe Winter Weather remarkably has not hurt red robin. When we come back, well talk to the gourmet burger chains chief executive officer on this hot off the grill Earnings Report which is helping out stock. Also netflix hitting a new high but is it built on a, yes, house of cards. She did it. I didnt think shed read that. We have a stack brawl on netflix coming up. Also comcasts bid for time warper cable has one former nbc employee upset but he happens to be now a u. S. Senator. Al franken will join us on why this deal should be killed. Thats coming up. Youre watching cnbc, first in business worldwide. Theres a saying around here, you stand behind what you say. Around here you dont make excuses. You make commitments. And when you cant live up to them, you own up, and make it right. Some people think the kind of accountability that thrives on so many streets in this country has gone missing in the places where its needed most. But i know youll still find it when you know where to look. Sometimes they just drop in. Always obvious. Cme group can help you navigate risks and capture opportunities. We enable you to reach Global Markets and drive forward with broader possibilities. Cme group how the world advances. Well, add yyesterdays big may be over but more snow is on the way this weekend. Boston, get this, could have blizzard conditions by this time tomorrow. Our senior economics reporter Steve Liesman is tracking the storm. Everybody complains about the weather but no one does anything about it. Well, economists are. Theyre taking down their forecasts. We just got word that citigroup had been looking for 1. 5 to 2 in this quarter. They brought to down to 1 . Part of that is a Winter Weather wakeup call we got in the form of the january Industrial Production report. This comes before all the snow. We were looking for up 0. 3 , we got down 0. 3 . Manufacturing, they said theres all weather in this thing. Mining down nearly 1 . Just what you would expect to see if there was a weather effect, utility output up 4. 1 . Some economists reporting people spending more on utilities. Macroeconomic adviser says unusually cold temperatures in november, december, and january will subtract 0. 4 Percentage Points from q1 gdp growth. And then vehicle sales, both december and january have been down. Now, were talking to phil lebeau in the last hour here and he told me that the Vehicle Production schedules have not been cut, at least not yet. They think theyre going to make it up in the quarter. If they dont there may be a bit of an overhang on the lots out there. Were watching all these different sectors and the different impacts from the weather. Yeah. And autos have been such an important one. Thank you so much. Sure. And forget the cold weather for now. We have a restaurant stock thats been red hot. Check out red robin more than doubling in the past year. Today red robin putting up decent Earnings Results beating estimates by 3 cents a share. Lets get to it with the ceo steve carly. Before we talk recipines and earnings, what impact, if any, has the weather had. Certainly the weather has had some impact but typically people stay cooped up for a day or two and then we get a cabin fever rebound and they come back into the restaurants because theyre tired of staying home. Steve, it was interesting in your quarter to see the results are bolstered by even though there was a little bit of a dip in traffic, much higher pricing. What was driving that for you and is that sustainable this year . Weve been working on this for a long time, and while we did get a big bump in mix from a pricing standpoint, it was all about consumers making choices. Weve got a 3, 5, 7, and 9 appetizer menu and a wide range of value. We have reds tavern double starting at 6. 99 with bottomless fries. We have our signature gourmet burgers around 10 bucks and then our finest burger at 13. 49. Guests are working through the menu 13. 49 is that what you said . 13. 49 for a burger . For the smoke and pepper finest burger. Its a half pound black angus fire grilled progruduct at 13. We launched it right before christmas and weve been pleased with guest response. Why burgers . Burgers are hot, theyre back again. When you look past the fast food element with burger king and mcdonalds, the guys making premium burgers like you and five guys and in and out, theyre doing very well right now. What is it about the consumer that they want their burger again . Theres nothing more quintessential american than burgers and fries. We have been the gourmet burger experts in more than 40 years. We are the first guys to put bacon and egg on a cheese berger. Thats one of the things you have been criticized for which is basically saying to heck with healthier eating habits. Go straight for the comfort foods. Is that driving your traffic . We appreciate the intull jens of our products and we let guests choose. You can have bottomless fries, you can also have bottomless broccoli and coleslaw. We have a great selection of salads and soups and for the kids we have vegetables, apple slices, and a number of healthy choices that they can pick. Your burger works. Are you going after which is a fast food sort of mechanism here, are you going after mcdonalds . Do you consider them your competition in the burger works area . Well, the burger works concept is designed to be a fast casual kind of service system. So were targeting more closely the five guys, the shake shack kinds of concepts. Smashburger, that kind of thing. And we have one advantage, red robin has been around for 40 years and we think we have some brand equity and great signature products people will recognize 3450ed immediately. How many employees do you have and what impact has obamacare had on your business . We have about 24,000 team members in the United States and were in better position than many of our competitors because we have been offering a full suite of Health Care Benefits to any parttime employee or team member that has worked 30 hours for a number of years and thousands of our team members have taken us up on that already. That cost is already built in. For some people who want to get access to Health Care Plans that if you offer Health Benefits at all so some of the parttime workers, correct, that prevents them from getting subsidies. Isnt there some sort of provision . Isnt that why target dropped their health care or one of the other big retail chains for parttime workers because they didnt want to hurt the others . I cant comment on what target is doing and i can tell you the obamacare rules are very complicated. Were focusing on red robin and making sure were taking care of our team members and not putting them in a disadvantaged position. Steve, good to see you. Thanks. Appreciate it. Thanks, bill. Looking forward

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