Transcripts For CNBC Closing Bell 20140806 : vimarsana.com

CNBC Closing Bell August 6, 2014

This state wasnt just recently named the top state for business in america. So many huge businesses are down here, including Delta Air Lines. Ceo Richard Anderson joining us exclusively in just a moment. Also, georgia governor nathan diehl is going to join us. Well ask him how hes going to be tops on the business lid list next year. Fed president Dennis Lockhart will join us after the bell in a newsmaking interview. And the person rumored to be home depots next ceo, craig menear, also here exclusively and gives us a peek into some of the major changes theyre making to their distribution network, bill. Yeah, the economys doing okay in georgia there, and its contributing a great degree to whats going on on the east coast here, so weve got a lot to talk about in that regard. The european economy is struggling, though, and the european markets were down today. The german dax was down enough to make it into correction territory today. It has since bounced back a little bit, but those european markets have been taking a toll on our own. Let me show you, kelly, how our markets have been doing so far today. A bit of a bounce on the open this morning. Weve been drifting this afternoon. The dow right now is up 14 points. The nasdaq is up only 8 points at this hour, trading at 4,361. And the s p is up just a tiny fraction right now. But that does not begin to tell the whole story on whats been happening today, and lets talk about it in our closing bell exchange. Kimberly foss from Imperial Wealth Management is with us, Jack Bouroudjian from index financial partners, Abigail Doolittle from peak theories is with me here at the new york stock exchange, and of course, our own Rick Santelli is in chicago. And abigail, what about . I mean, the influence of the other markets around the world on our own market today. European markets struggling. Greece is in bear market territory, portugals in bear market territory, and germany, the Growth Engine of europe, is now in correction territory. You know, bill, i think thats a good tell on whats likely to happen here in the u. S. , and that is a formal correction. I think if we keep it simple, were siegrist aversion and repricing of risk. We have stocks selling off, junk bonds selling off. This past week we lost 100 million in m a deals. And something worth keeping in mind, newtons third law every action has an equal and opposite reaction. What goes up must come down. We have been living now in an action of extreme accommodations from the Central Banks, much of it needed to restore confidence, but the confidence has gone into complacency and then over confidence. So, now i think were seeing the reaction back down. The russell 2000 looks set to join the german dax into a formal correction, so i think investors want to probably get a little bit defensive here. Kelly . You know, that canceled m a point is interesting. According to s p capital iq, 227 billion in canceled m a this year. I wonder if thats an earnings boost to some of those, given the breakup fees. But lets talk about europe. Kimberly foss, italys back in recession. Web we talked about the impact of germany here and what its markets doing. The European Central bank tomorrow, what does it have to do . Can anything prevent the germany benchmark Interest Rate, the tenyear, from going below 1 , and what does that mean for markets here . Yeah, i think that that just gives more trepidation for the markets here. The markets are, you know, frothily, as we talked about earlier, and i think theyre looking for any kind of potential to pull back and maybe take some profits. Were only down about 4 overall. I think thats kind of a little bit, you know, just icing on the cake. With italy going back into recession with russia and the potential for ukraine, and then youve also got china with a pmi numbers coming down as well. I think were set to see more volatility, but thats also an ability for us to be able to dip and then put money into the markets, and were putting our clients monies to work as those dips come in, 4 , 5 each time. Jack bouroudjian, i was checking my notes here. There must be some mistake. This says here Jack Bouroudjian says we could have a 10 correction here. Let me qualify that. If you remember, about a month ago, i said the markets should pull back about 3 to 5 . This is that 3 to 5 pullback. Weve seen a series of these over the course of the last 40 months. Were not getting the full 10 correction, which is what all the Fund Managers who were underinvested absolutely need and this is why it keeps doing this, climbing that wall of worry with a lot of nonbelievers. But if the situation in ukraine starts to escalate, that will be the catalyst for a full 10 correction. And id worry about that. But thats a big if, bill, remember. I mean, there are i think what were seeing is the pain being felt by europe. The question is, if this starts to escalate, it will spill over here and it will be a 10 correction at that point. Rick santelli, let me just ask you about spillover effects, because you could argue on the one hand, of course, anything thats negative for growth in europe could be negative for growth in the u. S. On the other hand, if u. S. Interest rates are lower than they otherwise would be because people keep buying our debt, doesnt that necessarily bode well for the u. S. Economy in longer term . Well, in your latter, in a normal word, i would say yes, but in the world we live in, ive seen plenty of examples where low Interest Rates havent really accomplished a whole lot. I look at the u. S. Housing market. I look at the strangest debates. Wow, housings doing great at 3. 75 , but at 4. 25 , forget about it thats crazy. And it really underscores that theres a whole lot more to transactions, like credit issues and affordability versus just low Interest Rates. And on low Interest Rates, lets look at the three Central Banks tomorrow. We see that we averted a new low yield close for the year, unless we get back under 2. 44 , and it doesnt look like we will in 10s, but look at bunds. 1. 09 they need tomorrow. We often forget about gilds. They are the lowest yields in about a year. They need tomorrow as well and theyve been rocking backwards really fast on the notion that theyre going to be raising rates any time soon. And lets not forget the bank of japan, with its 10year at a whopping 51 basis points. See how well that low Interest Rates helped them out . And rick, i thought of you this morning thats a good point. When i saw the dax was down 10 from its june 20th high. You told us here on the program, it was either yesterday or the day before, youre watching that german stock market very carefully. So, whats it telling you right now . Well, ill tell you, if you look at the way it traded intraday, it could have closed much worse. It grabbed another handle back over 91, and that was late in the session. I continue to say that if we get a close under 9,000 in the dax, that that is going to be the canary in the coal mine. I absolutely agree with you on that, rick, strictly from a technical standpoint. If we see the dax go below 9,000, it would suggest that were going to see a true 20 correction here. In terms of what jack was talking about, i agree that we could maybe this is just a brief pullback, but i dont think it is going to be capped at 3 to 5 . And i think when we look at Interest Rates, we have to keep in mind that bond, its been telling us about a flight to safety all year, and i think that it suggests that this correction or pullback right now is going to turn into that correction. Wait, wait, wait, wait, wait. Fundamentally, this market is still sound. Topline Revenue Growth is still 5 year over year, Earnings Growth is still 10 year over year. Were talking about a sound market. Geopolitically, it is scared, and that is one of the reasons that were seeing it do what its doing. And if we get the geopolitical scare out of the way, watch out. You will see money coming out of this thing and running right back into the equity markets. Geopolitics believe me, i dont mean to dismiss the Human Element here. Its definitely something to consider, but geopolitics like weather now becomes the place that everybody wants to hide if equities arent as bullish, and i will contend that unless the Energy Markets move up, what were dealing with is that geopolitics will impact the markets, but its not going to put them anywhere they wouldnt have gone anyway, and my analogy stands. If youre at the top of the mountain and you push somebody off, thats different than if youre on the bottom of a mountain. One of the differences is now you have statesponsored capitalism. You have a lot of wealth concentrated in the hands of a few individuals. So, when we Start Talking sanctions on russia its always been that way, jack. Its just now political hot potato to talk about. This has been a phenomenon over the last 20 years as they have become the new rich, and what they want to do is maintain that wealth. Not buying it. Well, thats one of the reasons why we see jack, if you take all the wealthy peoples money and made everybody equal at zero, why do i think in ten years, the same people that are wealthy today will be wealthy then . Well, you know why, because thats the rule of the world. Come on, rick right so, what are you arguing . Wait, wait. Did microsoft have new millionaires created . Absolutely of course they did. When we freed up the capital in this country and we unleashed real capitalism, what it did you have the bootstrap mentality . Then we can have the hammock mentality, and thats never going to change. Thats human nature, just like good and evil. Youre never going to get rid of them. There are takers and theres the doers. Let me give kim the last word. You mentioned earlier as youre buying into these corrections, if you want to call it that, these selloffs, how do you know whether things have changed . What tells you that weve gone from a temporary event to something more lasting . Look, no one knows if were going from a temporary event to something more lasting, but the bottom line, wealth in this country is created by the free markets, and free markets and the money flows where it gets best rewarded. So, i think the best thing investors can do and what were coaching clients to do out there is, you know, keep an eye on your asset allocation. Make sure its commensurate with your ability to take risk and stay in the markets through the peaks and valleys, rick, and to be rewarded in the long run, because this is about longterm wealth, not shortterm speculation. End of story, you know, be able to buy on the debts and make sure your allocation is appropriate for your ability to gain wealth in the long term. All right. Got to go at this point, gang. Once again, another lively conversation. We thank you all for your insights in todays market action. Well see you later. Thanks, guys. Heading toward the close, about 50 minutes left in the trading session. The dow is about the middle of its trading range today with this gain of 16 points. The s ps up a fraction, and the nasdaq up five points, kelly. All right. Much more to come on this special edition of the closing bell. The ceo of Delta Air Lines and the person many say could be the next home depot ceo, both speak with us exclusively. Plus, well be joined by georgias governor, nathan deal will be with us, as well as atlanta fed president Dennis Lockhart. A lot to talk about with all these folks. The state of business, the consumer, the economic recovery, the markets. So, stick around on this special edition of the closing bell, coming up. E financial noise financial noise financial noise financial noise frotheres no reasonn average 17 we cant manufacture in shuthe United States. Here at timbuk2, we make more than 70,000 custom bags a year, right here in san francisco. We knew we needed to grow internationally, we also knew that it was much more complicated to deal with. 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Weve been watching the european markets, which were down sharply this morning. Concerns about many of the european economies over there on the continent, but right now the dows up about 13 points with about 45 minutes to go in the trading day here. Kelly . Its been a good year for delta air. The stock soaring steadily, up about 70 since last year. So, for more on the success of the company and where the airline may be headed next, were joined now exclusively by Delta Air Lines ceo Richard Anderson, here in atlanta, your home. Why is this your home . Atlanta became deltas home in 1943. Youve been here a while. Well, i havent, but traffics a little worse. Traffics a little worse, but its a nice place to live. And it has a lot of good news and well get to that in a moment. Just a couple miles from where were sitting, theyre treating ebola patients. What impact is this latest scare having on your business . Well, it has minimal impact on the business. The priority for us is making sure that our operations in liberia are safe for our crew and our passengers. But youre going to continue to serve all of these markets . Were serving through august 31st, but we really take it on a daybyday basis. The great thing about being in atlanta, cdc is here, and we have a deep relationship with cdc and emory. And so, we operate under their guidance and advice, and were continuing to operate under their guidance and advice. How much do you know about where possible people who are infected with ebola are and whether they may or may not be trying to get on a flight and does that matter . Well, it matters a lot, and one of the responsibilities we have is to make sure we operate safely for our passengers and crews. We have screening mechanisms in place in the airport in liberia at terminal 2, and our flight crews and our pilots turn out at the car. So, the airplane comes from the car to liberia, sits on the ground and then turns around and goes back to the car. So, we have good procedures in place. The government of liberia is doing a good job screening people in advance of entering the airport. And do you have any other information about ebola at this point that you can share with us, relative to past outbreaks of the disease in the world . Well, the most Important Information source is the cdc website and the World Health Organization website. They essentially provide regular updates to businesses, airlines and people that travel there, and they do a really good job of it. And thats not the only part of the business right now where there is challenges, to put it mildly. Recently, russia, theres been some talk about closing air space, some of the European Airlines and carriers in particular could really be affected by this if they have to move their planes around existing routes. This is already happening in the air space over ukraine. How is this impacting deltas operations, and is there a logic to the fact that u. S. Airlines shares were bid up on the very day that some of the european rivals are selling off, thinking they could take more profit hits on this . I dont think theres much correlation between how the market treats those issues. The overflight issue in russia is just a question of whether theyre going to allow overflights or not, and it just has to do with how you route your airplanes. So, in our case, it involves routing the airplanes in a Different Air space, moving from the u. S. To asia. Bigger fuel bill . Youll burn a little more gas, and sometimes the gas is offset by overflight fees. So, it just depends. Its an economic decision from day to day, and if a country decides to either charge too much or restrict their air space, then we just reroute over other air space. And speaking of charges, we know that airfares have been rising steadily. Im surprised that even as they have, theyve been outpacing general inflation in the u. S. , and yet, it looks like, you know, its not deterring people from flying. Your planes are fuller. The number of passengers youre carrying is going up. How much further can airline prices rise, do you think . Well, its a very competitive market, so airfares are going to be determined by normal supply and demand and competitive factors in the market. If you look at true airfare, including fees over the last decade, adjusted for inflation, its still one of the great bargains for american consumers. Ive heard people say, though, that because of the price changes, 20 of the population couldnt afford to fly a decade ago today cant fly. Well when gasoline goes from 20 a barrel to 110 a barrel, that price, just like the price of your electricity or the fuel that goes in your car, the price has to go up to reflect the privat price of the commodity increase weve seen over the last decade. Do you still feel the u. S. Doesnt need an Exportimport Bank . I feel like we do need the Exportimport Bank. Our objection to the

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