Transcripts For CNBC Closing Bell 20140923 : vimarsana.com

Transcripts For CNBC Closing Bell 20140923

For the dow in three months. We have to stay tuned. Seems like gas heading below 30 for the country, air strikes bumping the price back up. The latest on u. S. Military action against isis and al qaeda and hear from a pro if gas prices shoot up like a rocket after falling like a feather. Although ill say, you know, price of oil is up sos the price of gold and not a whole lot. Oh, look at that. Looking at vitd owe to talk about. When is a plus a minus . Well, some would say talking about the iphone 6 plus. There have been those complaints that it is simply too big. But follow me on this. If it is, why does apple stock keep going to the plus side . Were going to have the pluses and minuses of the iphone 6 plus. And i know youre nonplussed about all that, arent you . Listen. We saw the device on friday. I felt it was little bit difficult to whatever. Well see how it goes. It is large. Its about more than just how many apple sells on the first weekend. It is about how to continue to dominance of this product category after a decade that they have had. Clearly its very popular. But the thing i hear discussed most often is the size. Not the fee churls inside. Correct. Thats been the headline. Thats coming up. Whether it will start to weigh on apple shares becoming clear whether people have issues with it or not. Women with smaller hands. That sort of thing all straight ahead. With the dow down 85, lets get to the closing bell exchange. Joe bell with us. Kimberly foss. Ron wiener. Steven kroll and rick santelli, as well. Kim, this selloff, i mean most of the folks on our panel today share your view of the market. Short term, waiting for a pullback. Longer term, still bullish on the market. Do you think were going to see much of a selloff at this point . What do you think is going on at this point . Well, you know, the s p is up 200 since 2009. Up another 8 this year alone. Yeah. I mean, i think the market is in somewhat of a consolidation phase and looking for signs to pull back a lit built so that we can grow further so i wouldnt be surprised if we did see more consolidation and i like that and something of a somewhat healthy position for the market. Doing that, were actually intentionally allocating to undervalued Asset Classes to create wealth for our clients. Rick, listen. Inflation expectations as you well know dropping by some measures lower than when the fed in the past embarked on quantitative easing. I know we are talking about it ending it, an exit. What happens if Inflation Expectations keep dropping . Do you think qe4 is out of the question if the rest of the Financial Markets dont get worse . We are so rote on this. Inflation is down, we do this. Is anybody asked a question . Why are prices stubborn . Why are prices going up . Maybe Central Banks ought to decide if they really want higher inflation, first of all, what keeps it from moving higher . Is it potentially the fact that theyve interacted in so many areas in the marketplace and theres so many areas of the globe that just arent competitive and part of the healing process, preventing something that needs to occur. Im not playing the cat and mouse game with Inflation Expectations. Those looking for traditional inflation, look at reserves. Thats where its hiding out. And yes, i thought we would have more of it. I thought not in my wildest dreams would the plans take six years. Yeah. No. Understood. I think a lot of people the fed included expected to see more inflation now than we have so i think its a fascinating question. What happens if stocks are rising, the economys growing quit playing this game, kelly. Think about it this way. If people make more money and have a healthy economy, prices will be going up. Not what we have. Keep applying the same safl and think the scabs going to turn out different. Right. What do you think, ron . I mean, you know, it would seem that the if sedfed is on a time and janet yellen said its strategy driven and on schedule to end quantitative easing next month. Should they at this point . Two things first. I agree may be a pullback as you said at the top of the show but maybe a 10 correction. If you cant time the markets, you cant time a 10 window. Were in but selectively on the Interest Rate levels. Theyre fair. They are what they are. Theres nothing we can do about it. What you got to do is just stay in the market. We have a strategy where we just stagger individual bonds for 75 of the portfolios. We have a yield of maturity we know. The rest of it is strategic. With goldman this morning going over the fixed income strategy and mobile. They dont know what to do but they have plans. Theyll move if this goes this way, that goes that way. Great. 25 of the portfolio to strategists. See you later. Not losing sleep this time around in. No. Steve, you were saying last time around i think had you on and people talking about higher rates, the 10year going to 225. Do you feel that way . Are you worried . Do you think anybody should be worried about the draw of Inflation Expectations . Two things. Number one, august 14th, we said we thought the market would go through a summer correction and the head traders indicated on the ipo of alibaba the market will be evident to other people we have been in a correction we have been in for two months. I believe Interest Rates stay down longer. We have a whiff of deflation, not inflation which is going to last probably three or four years continuing to deleverage the economy and the foreign industriy economies try to recover but having real trouble. As we know in the last year or two, we havent had a 10 move, pullback or correction we would call it in technical terms. Because wed get a 5 pullback and then people move back in and buy that at that point. Steve, do you think we get more this time . The s the appetite for risk starting to taper if you want to use that term here . Im doing this for 44 years and 37 5 to 8 corrections. We can get one. The good news is probably wont be 10 . Probably more like 5 or 7 . Some of the stocks out there as most of the managers will know are down already. Its just now the average that is are getting into the sink as you can see with today. But i think as long as rates stay low which i believe they will, thats going to put a floor on the market and then secondly, where else in the world will you put your money . So i just think that the u. S. Is best place in a tough environment and the moneys going to come here no matter what. All right. Bill, what about you . 1984 on the s p today. The closing high is 2011. Do you think we go back towards new highs before the end of the year or above that . How much further does the market have to go . Yeah. Definitely do. I think in the short term, we could be in for headwinds. About three weeks ago we reached that round number on the s p 500. Underneath the surface, we have seen some deterioration. Especially from the energy names, commodity names as the dollar strengthened. We saw weakness in that sideways consolidation. Now we are seeing the major Market Indices follow up with that weakness we saw under the surface. I look for a 1950 area. Sort of a defining area of this upward trend we have been in for a couple of years. The characteristic of the bull market continued to be the 3 to 5 pullbacks and the spikes in fear. A lot of hedges and i think right now the sentiment continues to support these modest pulbacks. You wouldnt see much of a pullback beyond that 5 to 6 here. Kim, you are looking accumulating what you consider to be undervalued investments right now. You want to give us a for instance . Well, you know, as the markets pull back in the small cap arena and small cap funds, we are adding money to those and committing those to those funds. Were pretty much fund investors, not individual stocks but in our value, large value side, we are adding to exxon and at t. Some good, strong, dividend players to be paid while youre playing in the market, the. Steve, what are the favorite names here . We like aig on a research basis. I like talisman energy. Some stocks corrected. Going back to aig, the stock sold at 1,200 under the great leadership of Hank Greenberg and now 65 of that shell of a company and the stock not at 55 but 2. 80. We think the stock can go with the reverse and the 55 stock we think can go to 100. Theres plenty of attractive names but as i said corrections do happen. Theyre not going to be i dont think over 10 . Probably like 7 and have the list of names to buy on dips. We micron technology. A long list of names we like and have some patience. Ron, same question to you, whens on the Shopping List . Well, were mostly u. S. Large cap u. S. For 93 of our portfolio. 80 to 93 depending on the portfolio. In the u. S. , home depots, black and decker. Mlps. Mostly u. S. , 99 u. S. We dont have to worry about foreign markets. To play the emerging markets, less than 1 . Thats the pepsico, apple, google. You can play the emerging markets, stay right here at home. Not have to deal with currencies or politics for the most part. And as long as russia behaves, we are pretty good. Again, you cant time a 7 , 8 market. Were not doing it. I didnt hear anybody mention alibaba. Anybody buying that . Down from that high it hit on friday of 99. 70. Ill give it a longterm buy. Hows that . How longterm . Forever. This is a great stock. We dont know the right price to enter. I think thats going to be a terrific play for a long time. Eventually. All right. Bill, one last thing. We agree. We are in it in 30, 60, 90 days out and add to the portfolio, as well. So are you just going timewise, kim . Or waiting for a price to hit . Yeah. Because, you know, on average, you know, the ipos have a runup and then pull back. Over 12,500 ipos since 1960, 16 average return. Alibaba up 38 and waiting until that, you know, as that comes back and then add to the portfolio and probably like 60, 90 days out. Steve, what were you going to say . Not on alibaba. I was just going back to talk a little bit about the dollar and the bond market. Very quickly. The dollars up so much that bonds this year and for people that are outside United States the bonds have been one of the best returns out there. Right. As rick reminded us. Thats for sure. Strong performance again as we head through the month of september. At least for fixed income. Thank you, everybody, for now. Appreciate it. Keep an eye on equities here as the dow looking potentially to have the first back to back triple digit declines in several months. The s p off half a percent an the nasdaq off 15. Lying in wait on alibaba. Waiting for the time structure or the price. Are they data dependent, bill . Calendar dependent. Exactly. What about yahoo . The shares under pressure since alibaba on friday although theyre up a bit today. Even as alibaba continues lower. So find out why so many investors are fretting about the future of yahoo now that alibaba is out from under it. Also ahead, is iphone 6 plus too big . Pros will debate if the ceo tim cook made a plussized mistake with the bigger iphone. Much more straight ahead. Big day . Ah, the usual. Moved some new cars. Hauled a bunch of steel. Kept the supermarket shelves stocked. Made sure everyone got their latest gadgets. Whats up for the next shift . Ah, nothing much. Just keeping the lights on. laugh nice. Doing the big things that move an economy. See you tomorrow, mac. See you tomorrow, sam. Just another day at norfolk southern. Welcome back. Heres where we are looking across markets. Red arrows again. Another day of underperformance from the russell. Down to the level of 1120. It is the s p added. Dow giving up 90 points with some pressure across the board again. Cade rogers covering the movers for us. This is the tax inversion movers. The Treasury Department is making changes Effective Immediately to make inversions less profitable and more difficult casting a dark cloud over deal stocks today. Shares are all lower on the news. Cf Industries Holdings is best performing today in preliminary merger talks with yara saying theres no guarantee any transaction would result and lastly, shares of alibaba falling for the second consecutive trading day and yahoo thats the real mover here. Since the debut last friday, yahoo stock price dropped almost 10 . Back to you. Great stuff. Thank you very much. Many paying close attention to yahoo s stock. Should you sign up or sign out . We have two guys, different opinions on that. We bring in andrew keen. He likes this stock right now. Max wolf does not. Max, you are among those who worry longer term about yahoo as an ongoing enterprise, arent you . Absolutely. The stock is undervalued as a trade and trading a huge discount to its cash. Yahoo japan stake and alibaba stake. That being said, that is company in good hands thats watched other people both feed off its traditional revenue stream and display advertising and position to make more money off streaming video. Its own base than it has and having trouble keeping pace with other people, who are planning and executing how to monetize your audience better than you, its hard to be super sanguine on a longterm basis. Andrew, make the case for yahoo is it predicated on being a standloan company . If you look at it, simple math. What happened was the people did not get aloe case for alibaba enough and bought yahoo . Looking at alibaba valued, it is 216 billion. Yahoo is 16 of that. So thats taking no value into consideration for yahoo japan or yahoo in the United States so lets they alibaba if youre saying that yahoo will goes down in value, alibaba will go down in value. I think they have a floor at 38. Going down 20 at most, yahoo has 3. 5 to the downside and should be supportive and valuing yahoo in the United States and japan at 0. They have a 1. 15 in earnings per share. I dont understand why the company is trading at such a discount. I think this is a huge activist play. Dont you think its what max was talking about, just this fear that they just dont have a Business Model that can compete with other businesses that have been innovating where yahoo is falling behind . They have revenue. They have Brand Recognition and a 1. 15 of earnings. Taking out the alibaba portion of it, thats valued at 39 a share for just yahoo . The value of the rest of the company at zero. Why what if they brought someone in. An activist play. If alibaba doesnt move at all, yahoo is valued 39 just from the alibaba cash to have and how much their stake is worth. If youre taking a short position in yahoo you have to say alibaba goes down to the ipo price. Are you surprised, max, yahoo is trading at 39 here . Yeah. I think the market is making a mistake. It is a winner all day as a trade. Giving yahoo intrinsic a valuation thats a mistake. Its a good trade. The question is, is it a good investment not trading around a market capitalization, market cap error. Its a good trade. Long term, we like marissa a lot and spent three or four years watching other people monetize its content and user base better than they do and four years is an eternity. But youre also taking a bearish stance on something and youre saying that the companys valued at a negative. An youre taking a bearish stance on a longer term. You have to be bearish on alibaba to be correct. Were standing by our comfort zone with alibaba in the low 70s to mid70s. We think thats a great company, too. But got a little bit ahead of itself on opening day and happens to the best of companies. If alibaba goes down to low 70s, the yahoo has 3 to the downside and also valuing yahoo japan at zero. We distinguish between good trade and investment. A trade will be over when the market recognizes the company doesnt have an intrinsic short term value and investment usually is a time horizon of more than two or three days. What is your target on yahoo then . So our price target on yahoo is probably high 40s. Okay. And thats where i think its headed. Okay. You agree on that part. Short term. Longer term quickly here, max. They have a huge cash theyre getting from the investment in alibaba. The ipo. There ice talk they could go out and make an acquisition. Very specific talk that maybe they hook up with ool some point. The company as we know it today could change down the road drastical cli, couldnt it . Sure. Comcast, more interesting for an over the top play. Yahoo is sixth most visited site in the world a lot of months. We have been saying a long time and we like marissa and think shes a great leader but if you sit back and watch other people monetize your brand name and your content and strip away lots of your display advertising, you cant really get away with that forever. Thats the longterm problem. We dont see any concrete steps to take lots of great brand ek the i to take tumblr and do anything with it. Andrew, are you saying that the upside that you see here really is only the low 40s . We are at 39. I think its headed straight to 45 within the next couple of months and obviously underpriced right now. People bought yahoo softbank and down 10 since friday, as well. People realizing. Shaking a lot of weak players out here. I think alibaba has a floor at 68 putting yahoo 3 lower and got a value and yahoo japan, make a shakeup but headed to 45. All right. Guys, good see you both. Thank you for your thoughts today. Thank you. Appreciate it. Heading toward the close, 36 minutes left in the trading session. The dow is down 97 points. Coming up, wall street veteran Joel Greenblatt tells us how hes putting clients money to work. Dont miss it coming up. Up next, do you live in a buyers market or a sellers market . Real estate here. Dia diana o lick knows and will tell us all straight ahead. I took l stuffed up. Nyquil cold and flu liquid gels dont unstuff your nose. Really . Alkaseltzer plus night rushes relief to eight symptoms of a full blown cold including your stuffy nose. breath of relief oh, what a relief it is. Thanks. Anytime. The smartest or nothing. Anytime. The quietest or nothing. The sleekest. Sexiest,. Baddest,. Safest,. Tightest,. Quickest,. Harshest. Or nothing. At mercedesbenz, we do things one way or we dont do them at all. Introducing the allnew cclass. The best or nothing. So in real estate, do you live in a buyers market or sellers market . The answer goes back to oldest mantra in real estate. Location, location, location. Diana olick has the lists. They contain surprises, dont they, die yeana . Reporter they do. The market is cooling off with the temperature. Some markets are great, thank goodness we have a new survey that tells us which are which. So according to zillow, a sellers market is not where home values are rising but one in which homes on the market for a shorter time, pr

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