Transcripts For CNBC Closing Bell 20141104 : vimarsana.com

CNBC Closing Bell November 4, 2014

That stock soaring today after meeting expectations on earnings. This company now has a higher multiple, higher market capitalization than wall administrator. Probably higher multiple, too. Yeah. Im sure it does, as a matter of fact. But is it justified . Well talk about that coming up, as well. Heres the markets right now. Final hour of trade on this mid ferm tuesday and the dow slightly higher after spending the morning in the red. Higher by 22 points or so. The s p though is negative off by about 5 and the nasdaq off by about 14 and talking about whats off today, bill, may have something to do with the midterms and a question to explore. The price of oil as you mentioned. Fouryear low for wti which well get to here and the closing bell exchange. Mark spellman joining us here at the new york stock exchange. Amy wu is with us. John manly. Kenny pulcari and our own rick santelli. Why isnt the low on oil putting more downward pressure on the stock market hand it has . Im on the opposite side of the fence and thinking that Lower Energy Prices is better for the u. S. And Global Economy and why arent we seeing that disconnect . Last week at 80 and ready to break, everyone was so nervous the market would break and the market hasnt broken at all. I think theres a conscious disconnect. The broader economy, in fact, may be a boom for not only the u. S. Economy but for the Global Economy. Amy, what do you see in the markets especially that you cover indicating about the direction of the energy space, commodity space . Are people thinking prices are generally heading lower or seeing bottom fishing here . Its funny, guys. You would historically see the seasonal part of the market low implied volatility but looking at options right now, people are buying energy call options. January and december, two major catalysts. Iran talks on the 24th and then the 27th the opec meeting. The Options Market would tell you that people are generally bullish into this with capturing both catalysts. Bottom fishing there. Lets bring in rick at this point because, you know, a lot of people are watching the dollar and of course thats a big factor in the price of oil, as well. Are you guys over there thinking that the dollars going to get much stronger from here . Well, i tell you what. Against the yen, the answer is absolutely yes. Right now the yen at the lowest level since the end of 07. Many traders believe were going to see 120. With regard to the euro, i know that theres many that think the euro testing 120 but i dont know. I guess in my opinion youre going to see more but not a lot but zoo the answer is i think the dollar is firm and not give back much ground and impacting commodities and mostly felt as it turned the tide of speculation and with regard to oil, everybodys fascinated with saudi arabia and the cost of production. Boone pickens and michelle and much cheaper and missing a big point. A good deal of their society is based on the revenues so it isnt only about production and the money coming from oil, too. Theyre between a rock and a hard place and dont underestimate Yankee Ingenuity on the new technologies working at lower prices and midterm i think the thing that changes is exports we need to export some of the bonanza. Rick, im glad you bring this up. Heres the interesting thing. More and more people this afternoon saying, well, maybe the midterms, Keystone Pipeline with the green light and driving the price of oil down here and reverse should be happening. That should put upward price on the u. S. Price shouldnt it . No, i dont think so. I really think that when we look back at this period of time, yes, part of the demand story. But i think the big story is were starting to price in the u. S. Energy revolution. And i think theres a lot of chapters of this book left. And its so much bigger than just keystone. Sure. Speaking of keystone, i cant wait to see it on the president s desk takes a lot to sign a veto on that one. John manley, focus on the earnings reports. They have been pretty good. You know . Alibaba just one example here but do you see that trend continuing and something to power the stock market higher even from these levels . Its a strong force and will continue. The numbers down for next year. 2015 s p bottoms up number came down and part of the fact is october, november, thats seasonal. I think american corporations doing more with less and more efficient and the u. S. Economy is Getting Better and should be a plus Going Forward. Mark spellman, just to get back at one of the other stories all day thats been weighing on the markets and europe and Mario Draghis frack house isness and maybe coming to a head next week. Reuters reporting on this, et cete cetera. What happens here for investors . How much do they need to be focused on the situation in europe and the extent to which of a u. S. Style quantitative easing. It will haunt the u. S. If europe is weak for a long period of time. However, staying concentrated, investors staying kons tated in the u. S. Based stocks or the majority of that will continue to be important for a little while and sooner or later, europe will come back and i think the weakness in europe is giving the fed leeway of raising rates. What are you buying right now, mark . Were not energy. When i look at the energy world, i mean, you look at bad news in the energy world and the stocks down 5 , 6 , 7 . Thats not the sign of a bottom in my book. But there are plenty of parts 0 of that space that you know down 40 from this summer. Yeah. That doesnt mean they cant go down another 40 , frankly. Just looking at a chart, or the fact that theyre down doesnt make them Good Investments and i dont see a lot of on the fundamental side reasons to pick it and i think guess work at this point. Kenny, you point out the benefit of Lower Energy Costs on certain parts of the economy. Transportation has done well. Transport average at alltime highs here. Does that mean you want to buy them at these levels . Yeah. Theres a couple names we like and going to be a tail wind and the dynamic federal express. A good christmas season. Done great on the cost side. Lower energy will help them and utx. Aero space cycle is longer if energy stays low this long. You know . They just reported 5 organic growth and the numbers next year look good. What do you think, kenny . Listen. So listen. I think if we see any stability, any stabilization of price of oil i think some of those Energy Stocks down 30 and 40 will be screaming buys at least for the trader type mentally. You might have to look longer term and stocks down 30 or 40 not broken, right, theyre down off the back of the price of oil and some are great opportunities. I think the estimates for next year could be 20 to 30 too high. If thats the case you will have an earnings revision massive earnings revision in the Fourth Quarter. If the stocks dont go down on that news, i agree 100 . However, watch out for the first step. Amy, Bigger Picture in the Options Market, whens the bad . Is the volatility done for a while . No. I think talking about energy, one of the corollaries you want to look at is retailer volatility. We talk about lower gas prices and consumers, historically with seasonal declines and retailers tends to spike this time of year. And amy, by the way, we should talk about the sea sweep volatility and the retail space, as well. Clearly a shift under way. I guess the question becomes how are investors playing this . Do you think theres pessimism in this space and we could get surprises in the Holiday Season helped by oil or forget about it . Too dangerous and too soon to sno know . Just outright stock replacement with call options, the bet here is, look, already starting to see in some of the companys numbers benefiting consumers. People are spending more because they have less to pay to drive and seeing it in the stocks and you have the typical black friday christmas Holiday Season and all these things will contribute to what is otherwise a seasonally lower volatility market. Amy, we have a challenge for you knowing you have a newborn at home. If you can explain puts and calls to the newborn we would like to be able to share wit the viewers. In 15 seconds. Right. Ill let you know when she can figure that out. Okay. Very good. John, what are you buying here . At these levels, where do you see opportunities . Buying tech. I think thats driven the earnings. Buying industrials. They benefit of low oil prices. I dont know if it goes lower if it helps and actually im buying energy on the notion of buying stocks so you dont get tempted when theyre back up. You dont know when it bottoms. You have the ease into these things. John, can you get specific here . You just heard what mark said. Its treacherous space right now. Well, two areas, number one, big Oil Service Stocks still making money in a few years and the old rockefeller companies i guess the best way of putting it. Integrated. Theyre not that crude sensitive. At least the earnings arent. They tend not to get the multiples of refining as other things an refining should be good and downstream, as well. I think the companies, high quality dividendpaying Companies May see a hit to the cash flow and dividends flow through. Right. But you have to understand when youre investing like that long term, you take the opportunity. You dont blow it all at once. Right . You ease into it. So if theres further weakness, take advantage of further weakness. I started downstream. I agree with john 100 . Chevron came out with good numbers downstream and then the refiners the look. Phillip 66, marathon mpc. It just occurred to me, john, Rockefeller Oil, interesting that the Rockefeller Foundation not buying. Sold out of their holdings in the Rockefeller Oil companies. H thank you all. John d. Would have been proud. Exactly. See you later. Speaking of chevron, an underperformers again today. A tough day and other oil majors. Today under pressure contributing the dow being up only about 17 points and even it holding up better than s p off 6 and nasdaq off 15. Decision day 10 2014. Hope you get out and vote. A potential shift in the balance of power in the senate. Our john harwood has a special report on that coming up. House Budget Committee vice chair tom price and democrat Chris Van Hollen is speaking with us straight ahead. And then alibaba hitting a new alltime high after beating street estimates since coming public. Now a higher market cap than walmart as we said. Is that justified . So go right now and vote. Your thoughts on that question. Go to cnbc. Com vote. And well get to your answers shortly here on closing bell. Stay tuned. When diet and exercise arent enough, adding crestor lowers bad cholesterol up to 55 . Yeah crestor is not for people with Liver Disease or women who are nursing, pregnant, or may become pregnant. Tell your doctor all medicines you take. Call your doctor if you have muscle pain or weakness, feel unusually tired, have loss of appetite, upper belly pain, dark urine, or yellowing of skin or eyes. These could be signs of serious side effects. Are you down with crestor . Ask your doctor about crestor. Im spending too much time hiring and not enough time in my kitchen. [ female announcer ] need to hire fast . Go to ziprecruiter. Com and post your job to over 30 of the webs leading job boards with a single click; then simply select the best candidates from one easy to review list. You put up one post and the next day you have all these candidates. Makes my job a lot easier. [ female announcer ] over 100,000 businesses have already used zip recruiter and now you can use zip recruiter for free at a special site for tv viewers; go to ziprecruiter. Com offer2. Welcome back. Oh, im sorry. Thats right. Were not doing this now. Just so everybody knows, the dows up 15. Its a mixed session on wall street. On election day. Yes it is. Dominic chu is covering the movers for us. Holding pattern, kelly. Ill tear up the script here, as well. Oil prices hit the lowest level in four years. A tough day, also, for michael kors hit hard after disappointing sales guidance. The casino stocks a focus for investors falling after sales and revenues in october dropped a record 23 . It was a fifth straight month of revenue declines and then amgen said the experimental Ovarian Cancer drug failed. Alibaba posting better than expected Quarterly Sales in the first report as a public company. As a result you can see the shares up nearly 3 . 105. Worth more than walmart. Back over to you. Thanks very much. Lets talk about alibaba. The executive vice chair was on earlier today and had to say about the companys business model. Were not like amazon. The fundamental difference in business model. Amazons margin hampered by the fact of take on inventory and they have a large cost of good sold item and starting with a low number somewhere, you know, in the low teens. And in our case, we operate on marketplace model where the revenue we generate, you know, coming from commissions and also Online Marketing services have inherently very high margins. Maybe for that reason, alibaba is now worth more than walmart. Incredible but true. The question is, is it justified . We want the know what you think. Go to cnbc. Com vote right now. Joining us to discuss the big run for alibaba is gill loria and david garrity. Gill, what is your view on alibaba shares here . Mr. Tsai didnt bring up the other difference offal bah bah and amazon. Alibaba is growing much more than 50 and more than amazon and growing more than 50 , more than 50 profitability. Thats a unique combination that investors are hungry for. David, what do you think . I mean, we have seen this movie before. Google after it came public, lots of questions of the valuation there. Facebook after it came public and the whole debacle there. Both of them doing just fine. Are we overobsessing on the valuations early on for alibaba, as well . The question for alibaba is one looking at obviously theyre the dominant player in ecommerce developing in china. Think tier anointed National Champion in that regard and the question of valuation is how much of that growth of china factored into the stock . If you want the look at the leg up for the stock you have to be looking at other geographies outside of china and talking about new areas such as online streaming content. Are these businesses that the Company Knows that well . That said, we think china provides a good runway for growth of two years and the stock is a good hold. It is also, gill, a competitive space, online streaming piece of this, ecommerce general ri speaking. What is your view on the margin pressure theyre seeing and how sustainable you would like it to be . Well, the margin pressures coming from the acquisitions making, investments in mobile. Thats not unique. The Big Companies are investing in these things and the big difference is alibaba still after spending all that money on these acquisitions still has more than 50 margins. Thats very sustainable and to me it seems like they can continue to grow in china longer. The penetration of Consumer Spending in china is half of that the u. S. And the west and so just the growth in china can continue for years. And the investments in media are about increasing ecommerce. They feel like if they can own the set top box in a chinese home they can drive commerce through that set top box so theyre not trying to compete in media. Theyre trying to compete on multiple screens. David, none of this is lost on our viewers. We see the vote as its happening, unscientific though it may be, 56 or thereabouts feel that the justification that the valuations of alibaba over walmart are justified at this point. Lets ask you this. What could be the black swan . What could go wrong for alibaba . What are we missing here . This is a situation right now where the u. S. Dollar is strengthening and one of the things near term of alibaba is with respect to november 11th, singles day. More importantly, 2015 trying to bring more nonchinese vendors on the platform. If the dollar strengthens and continue to do so, this is less and less favorable terms of a consumer and seeing inflation imported in china as a result of that. Does that mean i mean, the chinese currency typically moving with the u. S. Dollar so are you saying here that you expect depreciation that the chinese currency doesnt follow suit . We are in a standpoint and the euro is clawing down to lows. So from that standpoint, i would say theres a risk of a chinese devaluation that grows greater to the extent that the euro depreciates and from that standpoint i would say obviously a stronger dollar pushing up costs potentially for alibaba could put margin pressure on the company. We just closed the poll and actually it was closer than it was early on but 52 of our viewers still feel alibaba is worth should be worth more than walmart right now. David, gil, thank you both so much this afternoon. Thank you. Heading toward the close. 40 minutes left in the session with the dow up 20 points. Highlight today, though, again, is crude oil as it hits at fouryear low. Sliding today. Well go live to the nymex for a check of the latest jump next. And the pros will be weighing in on the saudi price cut and whether or not they think it was really aimed at whacking the booming shale industry here in the United States. Stay tuned for that. Tdd 18003452550 [ male announcer ] your love for trading never stops, tdd 18003452550 even on the go. Tdd 18003452550 open a schwab account, and you could earn tdd 18003452550 300 commissionfree online trades. Tdd 18003452550 so when a market move affects one of your positions, tdd 18003452550 schwab can help you decide what to do. Tdd 18003452550 with tools like free livestreaming cnbc tv tdd 18003452550 that give you the latest Financial News and trends. Tdd 18003452550 and bubble charts and price charts that let you see exactly tdd 18003452550 how m

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