So the transportation average, dow transports up 60 points and i think thats a record again. We have a very mixed market in todays trade here. Thats for sure. Four days until black friday. We have some special things planned for black friday. Yes, we do. What if we told you its here . At least if you want the best deals, more evidence that the calendar is moving up in a fast way in the Holiday Shopping season. Well get to that coming up here. Also more fallout of the epic storm in northern buffalo. The meltoff complicating and bracing for another possible winter storm an coming on wednesday. Just as millions are hitting the road, the rails and the air for thanksgiving travel. Live reports on both developing situations. Yes. Never easy. Also developing, a shakeup at the pentagon. You probably have heard by now chuck hagel is out as defense secretary. We will go live to washington for the latest on that and get reaction in a first on cnbc interview with dr. Ben carson. Many believe he will be running for president as a republican in 2016. All that and more coming up this next couple of hours. As mentioned here as we begin this week with all eyes on the thursday meeting of opec, all over the headlines, all over the markets today. Even though the dow only off 8, most of the movement concentrated in the names like exxon, under pressure to the tune of another 1. 5 helping contribute to the dow in the red. S p holding up better and the nasdaq up 35 right now. Pretty good gain there. Lets get to the Closing Bell Exchange for this monday. Kick the week off with cathy jones, anthony chan, sam stovall, john manly, all of them sitting at our seat there is at post 9 and Rick Santelli in chicago, as well. Sam, this is the week when we turn our attention to pumpkin pie and football and snow. And shopping for bargains. What does the stock market traditionally do as we go into this season . Well, i think right now, bill, that most people are sort of ignoring thanksgiving. I remember growing up my father saying that the bears have thanksgiving but the bulls have christmas. And so i think that a lot of investors are already focusing on the final month of the year and expecting to see the best month of the year and also to see the highest frequency of a gain come through once again. Its impressive, kathy, thinking about the strong u. S. Dollar and seeing again rhetoric up about currency wars in this environment. Whens that hold in terms of implications for u. S. Investors here . Well, you know, i think it means we see record inflows of capital to the u. S. And expectations of continuing to appreciate and thats really going to make a more u. S. Sen trick portfolio outperform particularly on the bond side with u. S. Rates above those in most other developed countries. John manly, sam said, traditionally we see a pretty good month of september for the stock market. Are you more aggressive with the portfolio . Pretty much investing and keep on investing. The end of the year is usually a good time. I mean, the sleepy heads and didnt get it to work and the pensions doing it now and then the early birds come in in january, that doesnt have to go into the stock market and usually does and the fundamentals are good. Why shouldnt it go in . Anthony, fundamentals might be good but going back to the conversation of the quote unquote currency wars breaking out again, hows different the landscape versus 2011 with the global, yes, disinflationary pressure . Whens the net impact going to be . I think its, kelly, Central Banks have to adjust in the new world where there seems to be some currency competition. The Federal Reserve already told us sluggish growth overseas might impact how they adjust rates or normalize them. If the currency is too strong, that will impact it. But for investors as long as central bankers like mario draghi used the thesaurus he said hell do whatever it takes and now whatever they must do. Thats muse toik the investors ears. Do you think, anthony, this is going to be i remember when the dollar started to strengthen, people focused and concerned about the negative impact on the u. S. Economy and do you think thats possible here or does the Lower Oil Price almost totally offset it . If you look back historically, you find a 10 surge in the dollar about a year later does slow down the economy by anywhere from half to 1 . But again, the impact of these lower earnings are very positive. What we have seen is that Energy Prices have gone down quite a bit. Almost more than 80 cents a gallon so thats going to put on the pocketbook of households a potential 100 billion. Some people say they wont spend it. Check out the margin of propensity to consume of the average american. They spend everything they earn and more and i think theyll spend that money. Rick, you dont trade oil but we have the opec meeting on thursday. Anticipation to cut production or not. We have heard some estimates of how much they might cut by but are you guys trying to play a guessing game, especially as it pertains to the impact it might have on say the dollar or treasury prices, as well . Well, obviously, Energy Traders down here and there are a lot of people, electronic venues make it so you can hit a button and trade no matter where they are, obviously, but they dont believe saudi arabia should be front and center. If you want to look at whats saudi arabias stand on something, look at more center refugees in iran or nuclear. But with regard to the supply, over supply keeping pressure down, thats all about fracking and technology. I think anything that saudi arabia does is going to be a moot point. I dont know that they can affect the huge amount of supply coming from north america, eventually all the pipelines will be built. And when it comes to disinflation, id like to ask kelly a question. Can you name a purchase that you or any of your friends or relatives put off because theyre worried about half a cent percent drop of pressures . Any technology gift. Oh so a computer prices were falling, that was a horrible thing . Eh, you know, thats the mindset, i guess. Yeah, i mean, rick to your point thats the mindset of central bankers and as long as we continue to promote this, take it at face value. Disinflation is bad, it might be bad. For certain financial assets. Think about peoples houses when they went upside down after the crisis. You know what . When you have a lot of easy money out there, and financial asset inflation, yes, many of these prices will come down. I really think thats more of the focus with the fact of all these countries that are hugely in debt like the u. S. , like japan portions of europe, they dont want to pay in stronger currencies. Thats exactly it, rick. As well, part of the reason i find black friday fascinating is seems to crystallize that mindset of the American Public which is that you dont buy until you get the rock bottom deal and its importance illustrates how bargainminded the public is. Except buying stocks. I dont know. I go online to shop and to me its black friday online. Well, yeah. Thats just the way it is. Exactly. Sam, what do you buy into the end of the year . What do you like . I think because you have 73 of Large Cap Value active managers underperforming the index, 94 of the large cap growth underperforming the benchmark, you have to stick with the momentum players at this point and likely to be getting the best boost in the coming month and quarter or so. So i would tend to say look toward technology, look toward some of the industrials. Even health care is still expected to do relatively well. Buying those sleepyheads . No. Fully awake. I was going to say, a nice way of putting it, sam. Most people say theyre wrong, those expecting equities to go the other way, for example, now chasing it into year end and cathy, i was going to ask, what about the fact that china cut rates first time in two years . Reuters say there iss more to come. What kind of impulse does that have into year end . Its more disinflationary pressure showing up so when the dollar goes up against the yen, the yen goes down, thats pressure on the other Asian Countries like south korea. Theyre trading parters in asia and as china slows down, they need to adjust and easier to adjust the Interest Rate than the currency and i think, yeah, a likelihood to try to bring rates down to what do you think of that, rickster . I think the only thing i walk away with seeing what china is doing is not doing it because things are hunky dory in the chinese economy. Isnt that a concern for us talking about the disinflationary pressures are coming from around the world . Concern should be growth and not disinflation. Everybodys petrified. The growth is below 7. 5 . And once again, growth solves everything. You cant create growth in a test tube and then the Central Banks are doubling down on the notion they think they can. Absolutely. All right. We have do go at this point. Thank you, everybody. Have a happy thanksgiving. Yes. Indeed. See you later. We have you, we dont need jack. You love sticking it to santelli. Rick knows this. I love having the debates. I do, too. I love watching them now. One of the most important things out there. Im no jack. We have 50 minutes to go and the dow off about 8 points. S p holding on to a small gain and faded the resistance levels and keeping an eye on it. Yes, theres some sell pressure going into the close but the nasdaq still having a nice day. All right. If you have done some Holiday Shopping this season, you may be wondering if black friday is already here when you see some of the bargains out there. Wall streets top retail pros discuss whether the best deals to be had are already available and if you think the best bargains will be offered on black friday or are you better off shopping for deals another day . Thats our vote right now. You can see its already started. Click on cnbc. Com vote. The live poll is open right now. Walter isaacson will join us for the 4 00 hour today. We have a ton to discuss with him. Incidents like what happened with uber and an executive suggested digging up dirt on a critical reporter. Thats next hour. Good stuff. Take a closer look at your fidelity green line and youll see just how much it has to offer, especially if youre thinking of moving an old 401 k to a fidelity ira. It gives you a wide range of investment options. 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This is your private bank. Welcome back. Black friday isnt here just yet or is it . Many retailers offering quote unquote black friday specials online or in the store. We wanted to know if you think the best deals are, in fact, still on black friday or another day. You can vote right now. See the polling is being conducted as we speak. Go to cnbc. Com vote. Meantime, withous now, barbara khan of wharton. We have joe feldman, as well. Barbara, i dont know if you heard our reporter from chicago but his comment was for him every day is black friday. He can find a bargain anywhere on the internet. I mean, technology has changed the way we shop, hasnt it . Yes, it definitely has. Black friday has some real good deals but for sure if youre looking for the bottom price, find it on days other than black friday. Do you agree with that, joe . I mean, theres its interesting. Theres poll of the street lets just say. 3 out of 4 of them are watching black friday for an indicator. Are they mistaken . I dont think so. We watch it very closely but its become black friday week as, you know, in the past couple of years. You can get a lot of deals online on thursday, thanksgiving. I mean, just today, im getting emails of walmart, best buy, target. Grab your deals today. And get ahead of the line. So theres definitely opportunities to jump in on low prices right now. Barbara, is this i mean, a game of cat and mouse. Buyers or sellers market . Are we going to see the kind of deep discounting this season we have in the past when retailers feared that when all was said and done the buyers wouldnt be there . In the end, youll definitely see deep discounts needed to move the merchandise. But obviously, the retailers rather not sell everything at the lowest price possible and a game as you said of cat and mouse. Enough deep discounts to bring people into the store but to try to do what they can to preserve their margins. Joe, whens the one item lets say that youre watching to give to a family member, a loved one this Holiday Season for that item to go on sale . Can you give a personal example . Well, maybe its more of a family type of a gift but, you know, ultra hd tvs in electronics dont give anything away if you dont want to, joe. I dont know if your family is watching or not. I dont want to get the kids too excited. They may be watching. We are looking at this type of an item. Thats a key item right now for Holiday Season and other things and some of the frozen items, obviouslying the cell phones are a big deal, too. Is that what youre watching, barbara . Again, just trying to think through psychologically, whats the trigger point to make a purchase this season and do you expect to see those trigger points hit on this black friday . Have they been hit or hit after that . Well, you know, some of the sales are coming on thanksgiving. Some of the retailers are opening early on thanksgiving and giving some really good sales then and then cyber monday. Theres stuff on the weekend, also. And even after this big black weekend or whatever you want to call these days, there will be sales getting close to christmas, as well. When are the best sales . She wants the know when to go shopping. Theres some we believe sites like savings. Com, et cetera, tracking the very best deals and not necessarily on black friday, for sure. Theyre on different days. Theres some websites that say the best days to buy consumer electronics, best days for apparel, some occur on black friday and not always and i dont know if the deals are only reason people go shopping on black friday. The kids are home from school. Most people have off from work. A wonderful time to go shopping so theres other reasons that people may go to the stores besides just the deepest discounts. Joe, are we arent we having this conversation about the validity of black friday as a bargain day simply because technology has stolen some of the cache of the retailers . There was a time that was the day to go and have the doorbusters and now theyre online whenever you want them, right . Thats right. All day on thursday. Online tomorrow, today. And i think that theres still an event to be had around the black friday weekend an cyber monday. It is a fun thing, event to participate in. I think it is a family type of event. Go to the mall, the restaurants on that day. But absolutely. I mean, i have seen days where the wednesday before black friday to get the very good deals. Arguably the best deals. Then again, i tracked a tv or two last Holiday Season and the best deal was on black friday so theres always different events to find and different doorbuster things theyre doing and promotions to drive sales. Yeah. We have to go, barbara. Trying to get people to shop not by deep discounts but offering discounts to their Favorite Charity and other ways to be promotional on this weekend beside the deep discounts. I was going to say, reaction of people working on thursday. And then we applaud them. The viewers, not lost on them, either. Paying attention. 55 of our voters chose to vote in the poll feel the best deals are not on black friday. So there you are. Most return. Theyll shop some other day. Barbara, joe, thank you. Happy thanksgiving. Thank you. Happy thanksgiving to you. Excited about that tv. Its going to be a good one for the family. I thought you were looking for a blender. Kitchenaid. Exactly. Watch our special black friday edition of closing bell to you live from the Stamford Town Center mall in connecticut. Really . Speaking with shoppers, top execs at mastercad, fedex and tanger outlets. Maybe some family members. Last year we sold a tesla at the mall we were at last year. What do we sell this year . We seal what you come out and buy on friday. By the way, this year realtime ground level checkin on the season, closing bell on earlier on friday. Its a half day trading day so well be on from noon until 2 00 p. M. Eastern time. So come out if youre in that area. See us. Love to see you and shop. Its a social event really. It is. Not so much about the bargains anymore. The funny thing is the change of mentality of how and when to shop is more of a social event. Because now as long as they can, people want to get out of the house a little bit. Right. Buy a tesla or something. I dont think you can do it there. Look at the mobile device. Never mind. The dow down 16 points now. The s ps still up by about 3 and hanging on here as we see more selling pressure into the close. The nasdaq up 33 points. And chuck hagel reportedly forced out as u. S. Defense secretary. A special report from washington. Plus, the outspoken dr. Ben carson, a possible gop president ial kand date for 2016. Will be here to weigh in. Also there is an abrupt exit in Corporate America to tell you about. Dow component United Technologies ceo unexpectedly retiring Effective Immediately. Reaction from people who follow that company, trying to figure out what the heck happened at utc so stick around. Youre driving along, having a perfectly nice day, when out of nowhe