Degree. The real question is, why . Is black friday dead as an entity in the Holiday Shopping season . Well get into that and more. We did all those stories leading up to black friday suggesting that it was losing its cache. In fact, that its goneful left the building just like elvis and hearing from tony hsieh. Now starting to open up brick and Mortar Stores in vegas and a popup store open 24 7. Almost a showroom. Perhaps a glimpse into the future of retail and where hell be coming to us from and a realtime view on zappos sales there and online. We are getting indications cyber monday is strong. Not just zappos but among other online retailers, sales very, very good today. Now about oil. You think its going to be lower because of opec. Speaking of black friday. Its going the other direction today. What a bounce up more than 4 on wti crude. Posting the best oneday gain in two years. Was that the bottom we had over the weekend . One top Oil Executive thinks it may have been and hell be here to explain why. What a crazy, crazy day for the weekend i should say truly. For the energy markets. Equity markets watching that Oil Price Rebound and still down 35 points on the dow but a far cry from the declines to begin the session. We did have a stronger than expected ism manufacturing number this morning and may have helped a bit. S p meanwhile off 12 points. Nasdaq off better than 1 . Weakness particularly in apple is not helping and the russell, the small cap, 2000, taking a beating today. A quick look there. Also off to the tune of 1. 25 . And if you get a chance, show them the transportation average. Dow tranports now down 246 points. Ouch. 2. 7 decline, as well. This is one of those days as we start the month of december. Lets talk it all with kim forrest, sam stovall, mark glaciani and rick santelli. Sam, put this in perspective for us. This is a seasonally strong period for the equity markets in the u. S. And now speed bumps perhaps with what happened with retail. Retailers are down. Airlines are trading lower, as well. Oil prices are going up. Tell us whats going on. Well, bill, i think a lot of investors are still looking upon this as a high wall of worry and thats really what december is experiencing going back to world war ii and still posted the best average return, up close to 2 in this final month. And rising close to 80 of the time so obviously its no slam dunk that its going to be higher but when you have such good average performanceless at least you have to be a slight bit encouraged. We have to talk about the whip some. Still down 40 from the summer. Is this look. I love cats and no offense but a dead cat bounce were witnessing here today . Anybody that picks tops an bottoms will be burned. I wouldnt be picking a bottom just yet an its very unlike Commodity Markets that have their antiparabolic move and parabolic move to the upside for many years. Its probably going to go on longer. I would think its more of a consolidationtype bottom. Not a breakaway bottom. Just my opinion. Pay a lot of attention, kelly, not only to whats going on with the spread between boons and 10s. It narrowed today by 5 basis points so all the traders came in selling treasuries thinking that spreads going to open up again and exactly the right thing to do and near and dear to your heart we continue to see things like the barclays high yield undeposition widen a bit. About 30 basis points in the last month and still hugely, hugely well behaved compared to some of the wild volatility of 07 and 08. Tom, what do you make of the oil market . I mean, you know, a lot of people are viewing this as now a new battle of opec producers enthe bakken shale producers in north america. Do you see it that way . Who do you think wins and what happens to the price of oil . Well, yeah, i do see it that way. One of the interesting things of the opec meeting is multiple reports saying non gulf producers wanted a cut and gulf producers, ie saudi arabia, said no. Theyre clearly tar getting shale. I agree with rick. Picking tops and bottoms is a fools errand. I dont think were done here. I dont think saudi arabia is done pressuring the shale producers so i would expect a lot more volatility and probably lower prices in oil. Tom, why are we talking about this . Saudi arabia is pressuring them and battling to stay relevant in a world that keeps pumping crude. Well, i think what they have done is they have targeted shale as the marginal producer to most effect. Looking at u. S. Imports, way down. Now you look at asia. Generally lowing. I think saudi arabia is very nervous. I think they feel they can squeeze the shale producers and put some of them out of business. Whether or not they succeed, well see. Technology increased substantially. Thats the play for now. Mark, you agree. I mean, this, you know, we view this as consumers, this drop this oil as a good thing, but we are a producing nation in a big way, now, too. And thats not a good thing, right . Its not. U. S. Shale is profitable at these levels and lower before you question the profitability of the producers here in this country and not enough to disrupt the good news story that the Energy Renaissance here in the United States as evidenced by the last segment showing how low employment there is in north dakota and true across really a lot of the major fossil fuel fields here in the United States and that said it is something, though, to monitor because if it does go longer or again oil wars breaking out, and it will be a question of watching who blinks first. Would you be willing to step in . Maybe youre already in oil stocks. They have been getting clobbered. Would you be willing to step in on them now . We would, bill, but more inclined to stay with the quality battleships, those particularly with quality dividend yooelds like the chevrons, Conoco Phillips to clip a handsome coupon, weather the environment of which prices go lower yet and if the time horizon is sufficiently long, we think youll be rewarded. You can see there from the moves across the majors, other investors making the same calculation, kim. If we could turn to the rubble from black friday and whats happening today, as well. Where we have perhaps strong numbers of ebay and indications of amazon and then the share price action in the amazons, alibabas and apple is weak. What do you think is going on here . Whats the message . I think the message is that there is always going to be winners and losers regardless of what the fundamentals are in a marketplace. So the sales look like they came in rather flight a very small time period of this Holiday Season. And i dont think its over yet. You know, i dont know if you get your email box full of ads that i do. Oh no. Oh no. Over the weekend, it was hundreds, hundreds of emails. But even before that, there were the pre black friday prices. You know . All that kind of stuff. All the retailers are really fighting for that dollar. It makes for thats good for the consumer and if you pick right its good for an investor. Because as i said, theres going to be winners and losers. Do you have a sense of who they are or who at least youre betting on, kim . This is the question hanging over us for the next month. Sure. Im looking at high quality merchandise earls that have a great track record of being able to serve up the consumers want. So we hold two stock that is are consumer related in our portfolios. One is vf corp. And the other is urban. Urbans a little down on its luck because of its name Urban Outfitters but they have anthropology and thats what were going with and looking at ebay, amazon, i think theyre good for the consumer. Im not all that sure theyre great for investors. Sam, same question to you. I mean, if we have this seasonally strong period or at least we can get over the speed bumps we are facing right now, who do you guys at s p capital iq like . What mark said is pretty much what were thinking. We focus on the s p capital iq quality rankings, a consistency measure of increasing earnings and dividends and you have Companies Offering dividend yields of 3 to 4 . And when youre dealing with a longer term perspective, right now, you probably do want to start nibbling on some of the energy stocks. But, sam, let mess just jump in for a second. This is dangerous advice. If we havent really grappled with what happens if Oil Prices Stay down here. I understand they have a good yield and so do the tell come names, for example. Why go into this space and so cash flow dependent when if anything they might be sacrificed for other decisions made to keep them going that hurt the business longer term . Well i think thats the decision to make when youre trying to be an opportunist and trying to get in before the rest of the street gets in. What i did was looked back over past 25 years and found that we only had six times of relative performances that were as low as this one and on a 24month basis, the Energy Sector beat the market 6 of 6 times and outperformed by 16 Percentage Points on average. Wow. Theres some track record there at least. Indeed. Thank you all. Have a good Holiday Weekend. Very much appreciate it. Again, a pretty impressive comeback for the dow today. Only down 27 points. Hovering around 17,800. But a lot of damage beneath the surface today as mentioned in those transports and some of the tech names. Didnt mention gold with a stellar day, as well. Oil up about 4 . So was the price of gold and the gold etf getting to in a hoemt here. Apple having a dramatic trading session, as well. Look at the movement today. Dominic chu will get to the core it says here. Of whats happening with the tech giant shares. Thats coming up. Also ahead, online flash sale company gilt groupe killed it on friday. The ceo is here to tell us how they did it and if their cyber monday is turning out to be just as good. We are back in two. My baby drove up in a brand new cadillac. My baby drove up in a brand new cadillac. Look here, daddy, im never coming back. Discover the new spirit of cadillac and the best offers of the season. Lease this 2015 standard collection ats for around 329 a month. Where do we begin to tell you about this market day . Dow down 28. Sounds quiet. Nasdaq down. Apple contributing to that today. If it werent for oil stocks higher today, the dow would be down more. Oil prices up 4 having the best oneday gain in over two years. Gold same thing. And transports down 250 points because of that higher oil price. Just been a crazy, crazy day. So, too, for black friday digging through what happened with holiday and weekend shopping, cyber monday is in full swing and shippers like u. P. S. Fedex and the post office about to get busier. Morgan brennan looks at what theyre doing to get your orders delivered on time. Morg morgan. Theyre expecting another record peak season so the National Retail federation expects online holiday sales to increase 8 to 11 this Holiday Season and while cyber monday is big, people are waiting longer to make their purchases and according to ship matrix, the rate of growth in shipments week of cyber monday has been slowing down. You could see that here. Expected to continue this week, as well. And a lot of that has shifted to lastminute demand to once again test shippers networks and why 2 million packages missed the christmas deliveries last year and its why shippers now expect their busiest days later in the month. So u. P. S. Just three days before christmas and fedex, two weeks later than its 2013 forecast. U. P. S. And fedex to meet the demand pouring hundreds of millions of dollars into their networks and of course the Postal Service is already making sunday deliveries. Will it be enough . Analysts think so. A lot of that depends on the weather. Thats the wild card this year. Ship matrix says shippers do seem better prepared for heavier volumes based on improved on time delivery rates for thanksgiving. Early indicator and taking a look at both of these companies, stocks over the last 12 months, with Lower Oil Prices, both u. P. S. And fedex hitting fresh 52week highs recently. They really got to deliver those packages on time for that to continue this season. Back the you. All the efforts focused on doing that right now. Thank you. While black friday sales did slump this year one online retailer seeing a huge uptick to sales. That would be gilt. Com. Its an Online Ecommerce site specializing in flash sales for designer brands. They say sales were up 20 on this black friday compared to last years black friday. Michelle paluso joins us. Shouldnt you be at a Mission Control today wringing your hands a lot . Monitoring sales. The day after thanksgiving youre with family and every five minutes sneaking off to see what sales have done. We were talking earlier. It was a rather confusing day on friday for sales, wasnt it . Absolutely. So there are different competing reports out and we all woke up to stats saying it was a tough year potentially down more than 10 . At gilt we saw black friday sales increase 20 year over year. A record day overall and through the Holiday Weekend and right into until i left the office today, we were up 20 again. Youre 7 years old and not just because youre newer. You still are. What is it that was driving that 20 increase . Can you break down how much of that was price versus transactions . First of all i think black fridays become cyber monday in some ways. If you dont have to get up and drive to the store and wait in line and potentially do battle with one person who wants the same thing you want i agree. Why wouldnt you stay home and enjoy . We are better at returns and sizing and quality of the images is Strong Enough to know what youre getting so we have put a ton into that. The other big story is international. We worked very hard this year at localizing merchandise for china, korea. Is this a u. S. Sales total gilt u. S. Up high teens and international up even more so international comprised about over 20 of revenue on black friday. Mobile sales also. I have a theory. People may have been showrooming a lot. Right . We saw foot traffic on friday and the sales didnt pan out, as well. We are seeing it online and people out there because they could, you know, do the showrooming and then buy it online. I think we find that even foot traffic down year on year and the real data, wall street Journal Running on this. The past few years and i think well find that but i think you go into the store and see what you want and then online to find a better price or get it to your house. Chances are you can. Chances are good. We watch and talking to tony shay later and zappos and places starting online are going bricks and mortar. Will you pursue that strategy . It seems like a great fit potentially for people to be able to get something tailored, feel the fabric. I know the way youre set up thats tough. But would Something Like that be in your future. I think for us we saw the price points and so i think there are time quhs they want to see it or try it on and we have been thinking about it a little bit. We have warehouse sales today and a few times a year we have sales where the customers come in and we are excited about that and thinking more about the sort of offline presence. We are a digital company. Through and through. And thats been successful for us. Still no ipo. No. That was planned, though. What happened . No. Wasnt planned. We have never commented on the rumors. We have always said whether the timing is right you will know. But its not now . No. Not now. Can you tell us how cyber monday is going for you . I left the office about 1 00 to come down here and sales over 20 year on year. Last year for the first time cyber monday fell just short of black friday. Black friday edged out cyber monday and a first for us. Well see this year. Sales are strong today. Were excited about it. Michelle, good to see you. Thank you. She is going back to Mission Control now to wring her hands. And to shop and to shop, yes. Wonder where she shops. 40 minutes to go into the close. Dow only off 12 points. We may yet turn positive yet. Meanwhile, the nasdaq having a very tough day. When we come back, Steve Liesman wrapping up the exclusive interview with new york fed president william dudley. We will have the market moving highlights of that interview coming up. We want to know straight ahead if you have a holiday gift budget to stick to this year. Is that why overall sales were down this weekend . And find out why someone here says its okay to overspend for christmas. Really . Yeah. Hell state his case. People with type 2 diabetes come from all walks of life. If you have high blood sugar, ask your doctor about farxiga. Its a different kind of medicine that works by removing some sugar from your body. Along with diet and exercise, farxiga helps lower blood sugar in adults with type 2 diabetes. With one pill a day, farxiga helps lower your a1c. 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Ask your doctor about farxiga and visit our website to learn how you may be able to get every month free. As we mentioned, apple among the big movers today. Dom chu, dropped like a stone on the open this morning. What was that all about . Recovered some of the losses here so lets start with the story with apple here. Morgan stanley said it was trimming the position i