Stocks, 25 of the 30 are positive so far today and were keeping an eye on energy again, as well. Exactly. Down here, one of the indexes that will often list up here on the boards is energy index. Look at that one off 122 points. Again, just reiterating the pressure seen, renewed on crude oil today and down another 3 settling around 55 bucks and change. Natural gas by the way. Its had a 10 move lower in 2 sessions. I was going to say. See how nimble they are in the booth . We know they are but lets see if they can show us natural gas because it is down sharply and for good reasons if you like warm weather. Yes. Correct. The socalled i95 corridor on the east coast expected warmer than expected temperatures over next ten days or so and thats taken the wind out of the sails, plus that inventory report of last week. Right. Flip side, not so good stuff with the Energy Complex is a move on the rating side you heard on the European Oil Majors and again some talk of whether we are seeing a bottom or not on these prices amid renewed if you will indications of the middle east, saudi arabia, theyre not cutting back production any time soon. All right. Lets talk about it for this monday as we get thinged started on. David kudlow. Beth ann bovino. Joe durant. Quincy crosby. And Rick Santelli is in chicago, as well. Beth ann, we have had the debate of the decline in oil and netnet is a positive or a negative for the u. S. Economy. Youre siding on the positive side. Why . Absolutely. Well, first of all, i want to put it in perspective. The u. S. Economy has been doing rather well and without this oil boom, its actually a positive. But one of the reasons why we see this as a positive, think about if now gallon of gas is dropped about a dollar since june or july, that means that for every person who the average person spends about or buys about 500 gallons of gas a year, that means 500 extra bucks in the pocketbook and they need that for this as they go into the Holiday Season for some of those presents. Thats a winwin. Other nonenergy businesses will boom from basically cheaper costs in terms of transportation and electricity. So a positive. You know, rick, i dont mean to spring this on you but i was reading earlier today on a writeup and a point to be made of coming to the Federal Reserve and what it should do, if we had some kind of, say, gdp target that took all of this into account with maximizing growth, for example, instead of a target that was pulling together unemployment and inflation and these things, dont you think that would be a simpler message that everybody could follow and understand here . I wish i could say yes but i think gdp is a bad metric in that regard. I dont think there is an easy metric, i could mold statistics than than clay and make them say anything you want. You know . The president pointed to how great the metrics are and most of the things he quoted are correct but what we cant tell is exactly, you know, which jobs created, how many were part time. We get close. Industries that dont pay as well may created the most jobs. We have heard a couple of pieces on that, actually, today. So there isnt one easy metric. I think the easiest metric of all is a metric we dont like to hear an answer. Americans asked how they feel about the economy, Many Americans still think we near a recession and i think that speaks volumes. I do think the monthly jobs number, if you just take it at face value, they have improved and i think it is about jobs, jobs, jobs. All right. I think that the downside is as we need to create more jobs that pay a little bit better but then again those that dont have skills, theres really no place to hide and we need to grow the economy from an education standpoint, as well. With those, you know, i guess you would say with that kind of skepticism about the growth of the economy and, you know, ricks quite right. There are plenty of people out there still not convinced that this economy is on firm terra firma right now. The stock market is knocken on alltime doors right now. Youre convinced we have room to go. Why . Take the gdp numbers averaging around 4 growth. And with the Fourth Quarter coming in, we think well still be around 4 growth for the three quarters but on main street, there are many people, im here in michigan. Many people dont feel that, they dont feel like we have ever really come out of a recession because the growth despite a couple of quarters has been more anemic. How do you reconcile that difference, that gap that exists between wall street and main street . This is in the the first time. How do you reconcile those two, the vastly different outlooks of both . I think because the growth has been except for more recently more anemic and until that follows to the broader public and they feel that and jobs numbers continue to come through, housing continues to improve which we saw a little bit of setback today, general public just the anemic growth fe feels like a recession. Thats why the market continues to do well. Id add one thing to that. What you are seeing as Balance Sheet improvement for five years so people with wealth feel better about the economy than people who live paycheck to paycheck. You have a big appreciation of home prices. Sure. And the stock market and those that have savings in the 401 k have done very well and you havent seen is if you are paycheck to paycheck, you have not participated because theres not been income recovery. Right. Thats why, joe, the interesting question of 2015 starting to see this out there, i think bank of Americamerrill Lynch saying 2015 the year to buy main street and wall street and thinking about that with Meredith Whitney over the weekend and made bets on the sort of middle American Public if you will that dont appear to be working out. Where do you think here the trade lies . Is it time with the drop of oil prices and bet ore main street if you will for 2015 . I think for 2015, make three bets. One, there will be more volatility. Second, Interest Rates will be going up. Theyve told us that. You want Larger Company that is have the ability to withstand higher Interest Rates and third you want to know that youre participating in a global middle market that is are happening everywhere. So i really like still the mega caps because they participate in all three in dollar denominated terms. And they have flexibility. If we see higher volatility you want to be in larger names and so i think youre going to see again the russell which is not done very well this year continue to underperform and i think we might see a multiyear period where you are way better off being in larger companies, wellknown brands that the middle Class Consumer wants to own. Middle Class Consumers like to buy brands and aspirational, large brands are very, very interesting. I would add i would be very careful about the Global Growth story, though. We have strong growth here in the u. S. , europe is hurting. Japan we think abenomics is flawed and a technical recession now. We have the slowdown in china so these big Mega Cap Companies as much as theyre exporting, we have a stronger dollar, i would look the other way and look towards small caps to be in 2015. Okay. We have a trade here now. All right. Joes got some small caps to sell you. Quincy, if rates are to begin rising and they have started at this point, not in a concerted way but a rise since last weeks fed meeting, is that good or bad for stocks down the road . I think that the first actual rate hike and maybe second may give the markets some difficulties or let me put it this way. The anticipation of it i think will give the market difficult it is you but as long as we have growth underneath it, at some point the market will absorb it and move on the way they did after the termination of qe. Getting rid of considerable time and now patient. Patient will go away and youre going to get the beginning of the rates but the point is, that as long as there is growth underpinning it, i think the market could do very well. We did with 4 in the Interest Rates and i remember 5 Interest Rates as long as there is growth. Yeah. I was going to ask whether you would bet on the traditional rising rate names and the insurance space, for example. Look at the twoyear or the 10year moving higher and the longer end isnt moving and do you think its moving . Does that mean we shouldnt just assume that those longer dated plays work next year . You know, the fact of the matter is if we could get europe out of the picture for a little bit and have a little bit of calm in the markets, well get a steep in the yield curve and good for financials and see some of the big big banks begin to sweeten their dividends and some actually introduce dividends. So, theyre attractively priced and with the new congress coming in, we may have easing of the pressure of regulators. All right. Last word to beth ann. You have been very patient economist there. As our conversation steered toward this wall street versus main street, does the lagging main street make wall street the stock market more vulnerable going into 2015 . What i was going to comment on with joe mentioned was that what havent seen throughout most of this recovery is wages. Paychecks have been pretty much flat, real wages pretty much flat throughout this recovery. I think 2015 to start to see a net gain. We are expecting to see with basically the quit rate now at a sixyear high, the shortterm Unemployment Rate now 7year low, those are indicators that suggest to start to see wage gains pick up next year and expecting. Main main win it is day. Well leave it on that hopeful note. Thank you, everybody, this afternoon. See you later. All right. 49 minutes left. Is this the high of the day . Yes, it is. I think it is. Up 122. Moving back to the high of the day. It has been the perform of the majors. S p and nasdaq also higher but not by as much. Spitting distance of the 18,000 level. Stocks may be surging but oil and Natural Gas Prices keep plunging. How low can prices go . Is it bad for the markets and the economy . Thats next. Retail index is outperforming the broader markets over the last month or so but history suggests you may want to sell the Retail Stocks before grossing out the year. Thats still to come on closing bell. Stay tuned. I love my Meta Health Bars. Because when nutritious tastes this delicious, i dont miss the other stuff. New Meta Health Bars help promote heart health. Experience the meta effect with our new multihealth wellness line. Tdd 18003452550 even on the go. Tdd 18003452550 open a schwab account, and you could earn tdd 18003452550 300 commissionfree online trades. 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Female announcer during sleep trains hugeom foyear end Clearance Sale,s get beautyrest, posturepedic, even tempurpedic mattress sets at low clearance prices. Save even more on floor samples, demonstrators, and closeout inventory. Plus, free sameday delivery, setup, and removal of your old set. Why wait for the new models . Sleep trains year end Clearance Sale is on now . Guaranteed your ticket to a better nights sleep welcome back. Rally day again after last weeks fed meeting. The dow up 117 right now. Just off the highs of the session. The s p up 5. 25 and nasdaq up. Energy sharply lower. Nat gas is killed. This sea of green is as Energy Commodities are crushed again. Jackie deangelis breaking down the big losses and including for natural gas, as well, as the nymex. Good afternoon to you guys. We did see selling pressure in oil at the close. We did see wti down 1. 83 closing at 55. 26 but i would say that we have seen a lot steeper selling pressure than this. The fact were over 55 on wti and over 60 on brent right now means that the market is still kind of treading water and feel things out at this point. Of course, more comments out of saudi arabia saying this its not going to cut production a. Lot of people saying saudis trying to sell the market, not scare it, reassuring and dont see a need to panic. Still, gas prices on the other hand still declining, guys. 2. 39 according to aaa. Down 85 cents from last year. Consumers saving 420 million a day on gas since the highs. Nat gas crushed here. 9 on the day. 3. 14. When it came below 4 and 3. 50, no one was expecting this but talking about 3 nat gas if Mother Nature doesnt send wild weather our way. Put this altogether in context for consumers, its really good news throughout with the Holiday Shopping, paying less to fuel the automobiles. Paying less to heat their homes and they like that, guys. Back to you. They do, jackie. Especially the one next to me. Thank you so much. Just what impact will such low Energy Prices have on our economy, sfwhil. We have expert halima kroft. I can remember a few years ago we were saying what in the world why is oil going as high as it is and staying there . This premium built in. Now going the other direction asking the same question. Why is it going as low as it is right now . I think the comments over the weekend of the Saudi Oil Minister said we wont do anything to help it recover and prices to 20 a barrel and not going to step in so the saudis, other gulf states, not providing reassurance to remove barrels. So thats why were treading water at this point. Theyre not the agitator, are they . Theyre on the back foot, arent they . Arent we in a situation of much of the supply coming on in the u. S. Is supply thats productive, at least for now, profitable, anyway, thats putting a lot of these traditional producers in a tough spot. Ironically, the more it declines the more they have to keep pumping in order to maintain their coffers, dont they . This is whats fascinating. The staudis said we may have to borrow and playing for the medium term. If we can keep prices down, we can price out the most expensive, nonopec marginal barrel and might be scorched earth. See how much you can take out and live to fight the next day. For how long . Venezuela cant afford this at all. Russia, outside opec cant afford this at this point. And now here in the United States. The shale oil producers. Right. Even, frankly, with saudi arabia it is a bit of a gamble and some people in the media, private sector essentially saying, come on. You know . How long are we going to keep this strategy up . Can you give us a sense of duration . Its a pain threshold and venezuelas the first one to watch. Debt payment in march. The saudis can hold out. What about the russians, especially as congress or is it congress or the president just approved new sanctions . Havent been signed but its amazing, new congressional sanctions essentially penalize any Foreign Company willing to invest in arctic, shale, deepwater. Potentially slows further the growth of russian production over the medium term and the pain is worse for putin in terms of sanctions and low oil price. Thats why it goes back to saudi arabia. Even if they what would they have to say to put a floor under oil here . Yeah. I understand the numbers and how big, what would be their bazooka, the equivalent, what would they have to say or do for oil to find a bottom here . Some of the physical market is tightening and libya production is m coing off and seeing russian decline rate is high this year but will the saudis come out with russia and say, okay, collectively, 2 million is coming off the market. It would have to be a pretty big cut to comfort the market. Is this a time or a price to cry uncle at . I think it is more time. The question is venezuela could hit an immediate wall with the debt payment and theyre powerless. What can they do . Not much. Its question of duration for the gulf states. How about the shale producers and who are already feeling some pain because of the debt levels and so forth . Absolutely. I think the saudis are watching that. How many rigs are coming off . I think watching closely how much nonopec supply to get shut in . Following the rig count closely . Absolutely. I think basically watching to see, just also arctic, brazil. Watching the whole nonopec complex. Were now seeing the increased amount of headlines about wall street firms getting out of the commodities business. That didnt take listening. Players emerging to indicate just how involved they were. In other words, other people involved in commodities during the if you will runup, the bubble almost, now getting out. Does that reiterate that its going to be order for prices to rebound from here . I still remain an optimist. I look at 2016 and say, wait a second. Rig counts taken down and we still have a lot of fragile producers and demand should pick up and it could be setting the stage for 2016 for a rebound in prices. 2016 . Maybe the back half of 2015 but 2016 i expect prices to recover. She lied. This is the last question. How low could we go . Thats the big question. Could you touch 50 . I think we could. When you have that 40 number thrown out there what was that . 33 and change at the low . Thats right. Theres no fl