Transcripts For CNBC Closing Bell 20150109 : vimarsana.com

CNBC Closing Bell January 9, 2015

Decline in the dow and other major averages at this thing coming a head. When they stormed the store and the Printing Press area there. The dow did fall to that low of the day of about 229point decline and come back right now. Back 143. Take a quick look at the 10year, as well. This has been rallying as we know for a number of reasons and quite sometime and perhaps an extra bid on the flight to safety trade today. Below 2 again. That u. S. 10year. Watching it for everything from the influence on the Mortgage Market to what it does ultimately send in terms of signals for the Federal Reserve here and policy decisions coming up and we have heard from members expressing like charlie evan this is morning to rather be cautious than hasty to raising factors. If you hang on to that for a second longer cross currents and you can see that after the jobs number came out, stronger than expected in many ways. You saw the yields rise but then they were coming much lower, maybe a flight to safety and around the time of the siege in paris. So, you know all kinds of things going on affecting the markets today. And heres where we stand and the first week of 2015 been a roller coaster ride and today the dow off 143 points. S ps giving up about 14. A ten nasdaq is outperformer interestingly today. Only down about 19 points at the moment. Lets get to the Closing Bell Exchange for the busy friday. Nicole sinclair ken mahoney, both of them are joining us at the big board here today. Contributor greg epp, steve liesman, what a day hes had and now joins us on closing bell and Rick Santelli in chicago, as well. Steve, let me start with you on the jobs number. Everything looked good. Why was wage growth lower in the face of Everything Else that was so positive in that report . Yeah. My neck hurts a little bit. It was a great jobs number. Wages were terrible. Back and forth. Some question about whether or not theres volatility thats compositional in the sense of low wage hires and not necessarily any high wage hiring that went on out there, although some work by drew madison contradicted that saying theres been in december especially job growth in highwage Industry Sectors and taking a pass on that in terms of waiting to see if this is indeed a problem. If maybe its the first sign of declareary forces on our shore here. Some sort of result of whats happening overseas in europe. But if thats the case then what we know is that the way to fix it is with more job growth an we certainly got a lot of it. And the 250 is a good number. Add on top of that 50,000 of revisions. Job growth being broad based an all of those tell me that the job market is reasonably healthy. We have to wait and see confirmation to be worried about negative wage growth here. Greg if you know there are some saying perhaps the weak wages owed to the fact of people on the longer termed unemployed in the labor force. Look, if the whole proportion of people working really jumped in this report i think you could write that story. But that didnt happen did it . Its kind of hard to like steve was saying very hard to explain whats going on with wages and the compositional impact of the longterm unemployed coming in that could be at work but, honestly like this weak wage story has been so much in play for so many years now that i think you need a bigger story to explain it than that. I mean its speaking to the lack of leverage. I think labor has in the market and something to the fact that firms would have cut wages further in the recession but they couldnt so theyre not giving wage increases now. I think if youre the fed you stick with your fundamental story that the Unemployment Rate is telling the key story here and not just the Unemployment Rate but people working part time for quick reasons going down. Longterm unemployment is coming down. On balance, kind of a wash and i think keeps them on track to go ahead with tightening around the middle of this year. For what its worth, i would reading a blog this afternoon and called that wage drop an anomaly, working itself out. It was very broad based on a historical basis, one of the largest we have seen. Yes. I just wonder rick what your response is to all of these cross currents here. I think that the job growth is the optimistic part. 273,000 dropping out of the labor force is not the optimistic part. 62. 7 we had that read today equalling a read in 14 equals two reads we had in 78 and still have to go back to october of 77 to find a lower read on participation so im not sure i agree with greg ipp and no doubt things improve but the benchmark for how were doing as an economy trying to approach some type of escape velocity isnt about doing good relative to history or a run of series of numbers. Its about generally the entire economy benefiting in ways to meet the demand of the economy and were far from that escape velocity and the real issue is are there better medicines to try to help the growth and the wages and, of course if those two things fall in line i dont think well have to worry about what price pressures although the weak currencies abroad its definitely a dynamic whether you see it in the trade deficit numbers or inventory numbers. You need to Pay Attention to. Nicole sinclair what do you make of the market response to this . I dont know if its a snap back from yesterday or a response to the jobs number but, you know youre the senior stock analyst there. Analyze this market that we have had incredible volatility first five, six trading days of the year. I think today Everyone Wants to point to the jobs report. You cited the tragic events in france, of course. We have low Oil Prices Also affecting the market. It was a very strong jobs report and even those areas of slack, theres still low Participation Rate and areas that the fed is looking to to continue this lowrate environment and not tighten sooner than many were expecting and i think there are a lot of positives there. Were still in this vortex of no earnings and next week were going to be kicking off with alc 0 a an enthats important. What are they saying about the underlying end markets and i think we are much more voweler inible to macro data points to debate all day. Can i pick up on that for a second . I think theres been a lot of uncertainty, kelly, and we have talked about this, over the winners and losers on oil prices and i think the lz earls have been obvious but the winners have not been and im thinking she mentioned alcao and on the input cost side that it could be one of the winners and interesting to see the kind of guidance and information we get from companies on earnings when it comes to how lower oil and come phdty prices are playing. Before you respond, ken mahoney, curious which earnings you are looking at next week and who are possible beneficiaries beyond the consumers plays mentioned. Consumers is most obvious one. We think the market is constructive this year. Look. We will have to deal with more volatility and look at this week. We have stronger tailwinds, stronger headwinds at the same time and what every guest said here and those stronger tailwinds are obvious. The consumer will feel better. More confident. More spending. The headwinds remain. Most coming from oversaes aenl its a battle and here in the u. S. And invested money around the world flows here to the u. S. , to dollar denominated stocks. Multinationals may have hair cut in earnings because of the stronger dollar but we are constructive on the market and calling for. How are you allocated . We like to have some money on the side for a pullback. You can never be full 100 in the market but we still like we still call for a choppy market with an upward bias and play the chops. Greg you know market responds to pieces of Economic Data are often not just a response to the data but the second guessing trying to think how the fed will ve pond. What do you think jantd yellen is thinking about todays jobs sflort. She is probably whipped the way steve was this morning, right . Because cuts in both directions. You have an Unemployment Rate which is at the top end of the range of their estimate of the longterm full employment Unemployment Rate. You can justify a positive fed funds rate at todays unemployment level. Same time you have a perplexing decline in hourly wages. You have inflation perhaps headed in the negative territory in the month of january, february because of whens happening with gasoline prices. I think its helpful to lay out for us in these situations follow a socalled balanced approach. Thats to say, they look at the unemployment piece and they look at the inflation piece and decide what do they have to worry about most . My bet is they say this economy is Strong Enough and getting Strong Enough its worth starting the process of normalizing Interest Rates and shift attention of where we start to where we end. Its a slow pace of tightening. Hold that thought for a minute. We are going to squeeze in a market flash. Courtney, what is going on . Something to tell you whats going on at citigroup. Check out shares of sessions lows. Wall street journal reporting the pool of money set aside is cut for poor performance in the final weeks of the year. Bonuses will decrease by 5 to 10 on average. Year over year you can see now citigroup shares trading down 2 at the lows of the session. Kelly, back to you. Eager, nicole do you have a response . Especially keeping in mind some of the financials have been underperformers on the week. Jpmorgan and citi in particular. What do you think is going on . Bank earnings come next week and trade off of net Income Margin and obviously we know rates are low and going to be very important. We are in a very low Interest Rate environment. In terms of citi bonuses, i think from a comp perspective, we have been seeing this trend happen for a number of years now. Thats not necessarily a surprise. I do think some of the best bank stories are the ones transitioning away from you know to a more stable type of model seeing regular rev lou streams that are more predictable. I dont see that citi news alert as a necessary surprise more a continuation of the trend. Thinkty margin is whats really a focus next week. I cant see the investment banker bonuses look like. Record year. Have a good week. Appreciate it. See you later. Little more than 45 minutes to go into the close here. The dow off 109 lower on the session. Looking to see how we close out the week and looks like a red one. S p off half a percent, as well. Nasdaq giving up 12. Yep. More on this busy day. Not only on wall street but around the world. Much ahead on the days big moves. Plus how much pressure does todays strong jobs report put on fed policy makers to raise rates sooner than later . Thats something to talk about coming up here. Amid that, a bloody end to the manhunt in france. Three suspects dead and some hostages, too. A live report and an antiterrorism reporting inner working of terror cells. What triggers them to action, stay tuned. Cant say thank you enough. You have made my life special by being apart of it. everyone cheers glad you made it buddy. Thanks for inviting me. Thanks again my friends. For everything for all your help. Through all lifes milestones our trusted advisors are with you every step of the way. Congratulations thanks for helping me plan for my retirement. You should Come Celebrate with us. Id be honored. Plan for your goals with advisors you know and trust. So you can celebrate today and feel confident about tomorrow. Chase. So you can. [ male announcer ] approaching medicare eligibility . Dont put off checking out your Medicare Options until 65. Now is a good time to get the ball rolling. Medicare only covers about 80 of part b medical costs. The rest is up to you. Thats where aarp Medicare Supplement insurance plans insured by unitedhealthcare Insurance Company, come in. Like all standardized Medicare Supplement insurance plans they could help save you in outofpocket medical costs. Taking informed steps really makes a difference later. Thats what it means to go long™. Call now and request this free decision guide and explore the range of aarp Medicare Supplement plans. All plans like these let you choose any doctor or hospital that accepts medicare patients. These are the only Medicare Supplement insurance plans endorsed by aarp. Call now and request your free decision guide and start gathering the information you need to help you go long™. Welcome back. A day of hydra ma in france. You probably have heard by now that the two gunmen responsible for the massacre at the charlie he hedbo office were killed. They were part of a hostage situation north of france. They were stormed and killed both of those gunmen there northeast of paris and in paris itself a supermarket, an Orthodox Jewish supermarket, there was held hostage by another gunman for several hours. It is unclear the gunman there cleared and unclear how many hostages got out and learning more about that in an hour or so. The prosecutor in the whole situation in france will be holding a News Conference and more details at this time. Meanwhile, the suspects reportedly linked to terrorist cells. With us is Bradley Schreiber former Senior Adviser for the department of homeland security. Welcome back. Thank you for having me. It is thought that the people involved, the gunmen in all of these various hostage situations this week part of a cell. Its unclear that thats actually the case but thats the thought right now. Describe for us how this happens, how these people come together and begin the process of wanting to inflict the kind of terrorism that we saw this week in france. Well i think what you are seeing is an increase of activity by various terrorist organizations like al qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula in syria and coming to get trained, financed and learn how to engage in various operations. While it is not clear whether or not this was an attack that was coordinated by anyone in isis or aqap it still remains to be seen and the indications are there that this is a well coordinated, well financed operation. How does describe the terrorist cells recruit them . The challenge is since 9 11 you know Law Enforcement both federal, state and local and the United States and abroad doing a good job of tracking individuals who we suspect to be terrorists. We have back in the summer there was an evaluation about how many americans, how many europeans heading over to fight in the with isis in syria and some of the numbers from france have been startling. So right now, what theyre doing is going through the lists that they have and identifying who those individuals are and make sure that they keep track of them. The French Police do a very very good job about this as well as interpoll and the United States Intelligence Community. Plenty of analysts like yourself believe we have to worry about this in this country, as well. Where do you think were most vulnerable and how do we protect ourselves . I think that theres always since 9 11 i think that this idea that we have steady states is really critical here. In the world that i work in you have to always be vigilant. You have to be the private sector has to be aware that the events could potentially happen. The biggest challenge we have in my space is called the optimism factor where an event happens, some time happens and forget about it and then everything goes on to be normal. The fact is that everybody has to be diligent and making sure like boston last year to all help each ore should an event like this occur. Special training bradley, required to monitor the cells, identify them and think about getting involved in doing something about them or left largely to Police Forces . Are they equipped for all of this . Well, the Police Forces and our Intelligence Community are very well prepared to handle all of this but private sector has a role to play and there were Partnership Entities that allow for that information sharing so we all have a role to play but Law Enforcement certainly is at the front line of this as well as the Intelligence Community. Theyre doing an outstanding job. What questions will you want answers to about these people looking at on the screen the suspects the gunmen and women by the way whos still at large at this point. What do you want to know about them to help you better understand how these cells come together . Well, i think we need to do and Law Enforcement in europe is certainly working on this now is taking a look at what their history was, where did they come from, where did they go . How did they get recruited . Do they have current connections . Who were they commune katding with online and on telephone . Onetime incident at the moment or part of a more larger coordinated attack . Once we get that then well have a better idea of how to go and dismantle the cell other cells that may be available. Clearly, you know paris was a target in this case because of the magazine that had so enraged many of those fundamentalists muslims in this case. That was i dont want to call it a logical target and not perhaps that surprising. Where would you imagine are the unsurprising targets in this country, as well . Well i dont want to give out too much but anyplace can be a target. Anyplace that you ha

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