Transcripts For CNBC Closing Bell 20150121 : vimarsana.com

CNBC Closing Bell January 21, 2015

We await the word from the European Central bank tomorrow. Thats going to be very interesting. Yes, well get to more on that in a second. What all the Central Banks are up to. Oil rebounding but that didnt stop canada from cutting its key Interest Rate north of the border and they did that because of how the dramatic fall in oil prices is rippling through the nations economy. Well get into that a lot more with to do ameritrades ceo fred tomczyk is back with us. They had good looking earnings. They had record asset accumulation by their clients in the last quarter. What are they doing with that money, thats the question, what their clients are doing with that money. And this is not a technical glitch. Look at netflix, you talked about this last night. They had blowout earnings. It is up 17 , about a 60 gain after those earnings the explosive growth first reported on the closing bell yesterday. We will follow that stock into the close and at least one of our guests says you can still buy netflix and make money. Lets look at where we stand in the markets going into the final hour of trade. The dow has been down and up right now. Its winning to the upside about 17 points. The s p adding about 7. Thats about a third of a percent there. The nasdaq meanwhile putting in a gain of about 10. I dont know how word got out, but it is true, later in the program today you will have the entire motley crue band the classic rock band motley crue will be here with alice cooper today. Yes, that actually is happening. I thought when you sate motley crue you might be talking about the group joining us. Thats where i was going. We have our own motley crue and they include jack ver rouge bouroudjian on drums. Keith fitzgerald is lead guitarist with Money Map Press and the lead singer of course is Rick Santelli from chicago. The wall street journal earlier today as we await this highly anticipated word from the European Central bank about how whether theyre going to be buying up bonds and start their own easy money policy the word got around ther going to buy up 58 billion a month. The market has done absolutely nothing with that today. What do you make of that here if, in fact thats a true report . Well, i think its a balloon they floated with good purpose, to just make sure that the market was somewhat prepared and i have to tell you, 50 billion air rows 58 billion a month for at least a year is pretty much in line with what traders are looking for. The issue with traders, just like many of us who are parents and have kids its never enough. So really the issue tomorrow is twofold. All the positions that have been on really since thanksgiving short euro versus everything looking for bond yields to keep dropping and long equities look at the dax today, what happens to the positions that are big winners . Do they stick around or get out and whats the next trade . What do newcomers do . Its about looking at the carrot of the future with regard to all the gifts the central bank will give. Look for a lot of twoway trade, especially right around the time of the statement and then of course, at 8 30 eastern for the press conference. Because yesterday meanwhile mohammeded elerian flat out told us he doesnt think qe is going to work. Hes a very smart man and i think what he was saying was absolutely right. Theyve got a bigger structural problem in europe and i think the fact that we saw what the swiss did last week react the way the markets reacted with all that turmoil and volatility gives us a good example. There are a lot of people out there praying that the swiss economy goes into a recession this year because if it doesnt, guess what . Germany is probably next. And that is going to really cause a ripple effect. Lets see if indeed that is a problem. The flip side of that is there was a story that was floated around that there was going to be a billion euros or a trillion euros i should say and the market started taking that as bad news because they were worried maybe things were worse than expected. All of this, as rick said, will play out over the next couple days. Keith, ill get to you in a second. Also joining us we have kate warren from edwards jones. Good to see you. Are you waiting to make Investment Decisions until after the European Central Bank Announces what they plan to do especially if youre thinking about investing in europe right now . Absolutely not. I think the right move is to put money to work today. The European Central bank is trying to set expectations. Rick suggested traders say never enough but theyre trying to set expectations so theres not dispointment dispointment. The fact theyre taking more action combined with Lower Oil Prices which should be good news for Economic Growth, you want to take advantage of the strong dollar, put your money to work where it buys more and thats in europe. Keith, yesterday john calamos also speaking of flat out Disorderly Conduct declarations said were in a deflationary period. What weve seen from Central Banks just in the past call it week he had india, 25 basis points race cut. The swiss cut rates to negative 0. 75 along with abandoning the peg on the 15. You had a peru a surprise rate cut. Den narcotic with a surprise rate cut on the 19th and today canada with a surprise rate cut. Are people aware of whats happening with Central Banks try to combat deflation around the world and what that means for the g4 next . I think weve been hanging around in bernankes helicopter hangar. I think rick is right were going it see tremendous volatility around this because traders on one hand have been anticipating. On the other hand theyre very much looking to put positions to work and the Party Continues as long as theres free money. What i worry about is that this is absolutely the wrong message to be sending to the derivatives cowboys. Its a bet they cant lose. I think were going to see big wall street warm up. I think we will see individual investors go in with intelligent bys buys and there will be a lot of volatility for three or four day approximates. Rick, im surprised youre not a little more outspoken against this. I can imagine youre against this strategy by the European Central bank to do this buying especially when you consider that the fed did this under the duress of the financial crisis we went through. Yes, theyre in a slow economic environment in europe. Theyve got their problems with greece and so forth, but i dont think anybody would argue theyre in dire straits we were six years ago, yet theyre employing this same strategy. Do you think a precedent has been set, he asks naively, where other Central Banks will follow this course down the road every time they stub their toe economically . Oh, absolutely and its the dark side of this type of strategy, and lets be clear here. You know if you look at the type of economy we had before the crisis in europe and in the u. S. , the fact that weve had the types of recoveries weve had, better in the u. S. Than europe, really shouldnt be surprising, and im certainly not saying that in any large part its due to the medicine thats been applied. Its what normally happens when an event surprises the market. You go down to 6600 in the dow. Its going to bounce back. Thats the way these economies are, and ours is better and more resilient. The real issue is why are you applying salve when we dont have the type of wound that will be healed by salve. Kate warne, what do you make of all this policy and what should investors do here . What does this mean for the next 6 to 12 months for your investments . Certainly i think the European Central bank is taking action. Theyre doing the things they know to do. It may not be the right medicine but it also buys time, and time really heals a lot of things. Investors i think should be looking for Quality Companies and putting money to work. This is an environment where Economic Growth is improving in the u. S. Its weak in europe but if any of these policies whether its Central Bank Action or Lower Oil Prices can help thats actually a plus for investors putting money to work in Quality Companies. So id be buying stocks particularly ones with low dividends and the potential for dividend growth. Keith, do you agree that what the European Central bank is going to do could help us in the United States or does it matter . I think it should help us. I asked keith. Im sorry, kate. It was for keith. Thats okay. Im the lead singer and i dont have any vocals here. I do think that this is going to help. It does matter and it doesnt matter as much. I think rick is right absolutely spot on. Were the best looking horse in the glue factory here. Whether its right or not, whether the fed, the ecb, bank of japan, all these guys have their hands in the cookie jar right now. I think you have to focus on Quality Companies. The volatility will produce better buying opportunities. Im still looking to defense and medical tech. Anytime theres a pullback, history shows thats a great opportunity if you have the right company in mind. Jack how do you feel about energy here . First of all, i dont think were a horse in a glue factory. The bottom line is this energy is really whats going to drive this market over the course of the next year. We are going to see surprises out of earnings. Everybody is so worried about the bite that were going to see. Were going to be pleasantly surprised at the end of the year and not only us. Theres a revolution going on around the world. I just got back from india. What modi is doing in india is a miracle and Lower Energy Prices will only help that and those are our customers. So i have got a feeling this is going to be one of those years where just like last year we buy these dips especially in the beginning of the quarters, and we find this Market Making new alltime highs on a quarterly basis. Jack you just brought it up that word and were ten minutes into our show here. We havent even mentioned earnings. We have more earnings coming out later, keith fitzgerald. Are we underestimating the impact those earnings can have on our market and overestimating the impact that Monetary Policy can have right now . I think thats very much the case. Now, to the point, i think that the earnings have been set so artificially low as to be laughable so that beats are going to come very quickly and easily whether traders buy in that or not is thor question. But Going Forward i think well see a trillion dollars or more thats going to be a stimulus by virtue of this implicit gas tax credit by low fuel costs thats going to be right to the middle class pocket. President obama talked about it last night. He completely ignored the real issue, which is cash in the pocket works and i think thats going to hit the registers a quarter or two from now and thats where the surprises will start to come. Thats right. Well have a little more on where people are spending those savings coming up in a bit. For now, everybody, thank you very much. Thanks, guys. Good to see you this afternoon. And weve got about 50 minutes to go. The dow has turned negative but its been bouncing around all day. Its a familiar tune for us here so far this year. Well see what happens with plenty of time still left to go. The s p still positive by a couple points. The nasdaq just like one. Its like the weather in denver, you dont like it now, just wait a couple minutes. And look at netflix. The pros will tell us if todays gains are justify and if netflix is the network of the future. And to do ameritrades ceo gives us his reaction to the canadian rate cut. Thats coming up on the closing bell. Stay tuned. You just got a big bump in miles. So this is a great opportunity for an upgrade. Sound good . Great. Because youre not you youre a whole airline. And its not a ticket youre upgrading its your entire operations, from domestic to international. Which means you need help from a whole team of advisors. From workforce strategies to Tech Solutions and a thousand other things. So you call pwc. The right people to get the extraordinary done. Theres a difference when you trade with fidelity. One you wont find anywhere else. Onesecond trade execution. Guaranteed. Did you see it . In one second, he made a trade we looked for the best price and the trade went through. Do the other guys guarantee that . Didnt think so. Open an account and find more of the expertise you need to be a better investor. So you take that snapshot right there, the dow up 13 and you think, oh quiet day. Man, it has been anything but. Weve had a 200point range on the dow again today, down 120 at one point, up 84. Now were up 13. There are the ten s p 500 sectors. The only negative today, Fred Tom Zach will be interested to know, are the financials. Everybody else has been positive. By the way, kelly evans, which average do you think hit an alltime high today . Im going to guess its a dow average. Oh, i was going to say is it canada . The transports. Utilities. Lower Interest Rates. Sectors that were winning last year continue to win this year. Courtney reagan is keeping a pulse on some of the biggest movers for us in this market right now. Hi, courtney. Were going to go to individual stocks. Lets start with United Health group. Hitting a record high after posting better than expected Fourth Quarter results benefiting from an increase in Profit Margins and a surge in premium revenue. The stock trading higher by more than 3 . Other Health Insurers moving higher like aetna, cigna humana. Netflix soaring after adding 4. 3 million streaming customers. We will have more on that Company Coming up. And tootsie roll trading higher on news the ceo has died. This is sparking speculation that the company could be courtney thank you. I confess i did not know tootsie rool was roll was a publicly traded company until now. Canadas central bank today cutting its key Interest Rate and specifically pointing to the fallout of the nations xhe fromeconomy from the drop in oil prices. We welcome back fred tomczyk from to dod ameritrade. Even you were surprised at the Canadian National bank cutting rates today. Yeah. I was surprised by it because it seemed to come out of the blue which were seeing out of a number of Central Banks this year. But as you think about it in canada the canadian economy is a tale of two parts of the country. Alberta, sus skach wan are oil and gas denominated, if you go into ontario, its more manufacturing. If the price of oil was coming down nothing you can do about that. I think it has to be thinking of a way to devalue the currency to increase the attractiveness of the canadian Manufacturing Sector exporting goods and services. It starts to get more into your business. A lot of reaction has been it will be good news ultimately and we can hope the housing hashthmarket will have a soft landing. When the u. S. Banks went through the housing and financial crisis, at the time canada said it was your problem, you were deregulation. You were cowboys, we came through it cleanly. Is there a risk we see more pressure on canadian financials . I think you are seeing more pressure. Td bank and royal bank were up today which is surprising when youre cutting Interest Rates unless youre trading off the dividend yield. But having said that i think the Canadian Housing market is a very different structure than the u. S. Housing market and so it is different, and it is has a lot more insurance to it and support. I think the challenge in the Canadian Market with housing is really the condo markets in toronto and vancouver, and thats the part everybody is watching. You were telling me this during the break. We have been doing this about the same amount of time. In that time the battle has been against inflation. You invest to try to keep up with the inflation rate. Is this what deflation feels like, what were going through now, and what does this do for the average investor . What should they be thinking about as they invest their money . I dont think were going through deflation just yet. I think deflation has certain characteristics. I dont think were seeing that right now. I think were seeing a lot of disinflation trends. The price of oil definitely brings down some inflation. I also think with whats going on with technology and all the disruption going on out of Silicon Valley now thats bringing down prices as well. I think we have a couple things countering whats going on in the economy that perhaps you dont see in a normal type of situation. Lets talk for a second about the quarter and the results that you have had, and missed street expectations, still up on the year. It would seem during a time of heightened volatility which has been somewhat more recent but even from the period during the quarterback you would experience more client activity. What happened . You know from our estimates and when we looked at bloomberg, were right on expectations but other people have different numbers. The only difference that i some of the analysts on the street had from us calculated trades per day, they estimated 455. We were 457. What happened was there was a mix shift because with all the changes in the price of oil, our mix shift shifted heavily to futures so we were about 6 of trades normall

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