Transcripts For CNBC Closing Bell 20150303 : vimarsana.com

CNBC Closing Bell March 3, 2015

More fallout and reaction to our exclusive interview with billionaire investor Stan Druckenmiller. His critical comments about ibm prompting bill miller another famed investor to take to twitter in defense of big blue. We will show you what both said and hash out who may be right. Two very smart guys two very different opinions on ibm. And later today weve got tony robbins, his first book is out in nearly 20 years. Its all about money and gaining Financial Freedom, which by the way, coincidentally the same thing cnbc and this show is all about, but tony robbins will be here at the New York Stock Exchange later on closing bell. A lot coming up. Here is where we stand. An hour to go to the close. The dow is off 89 points. Weak session across the board. Earlier today it looked like a mirror image of the gains we saw yesterday. A couple of differing reasons as to why that may be going on. Maybe just some profit taking. A banner day yesterday with the nasdaq closing above 5,000. Today at the moment giving up 30 points. A lot to talk about in todays closing bell exchange. Lets do it with amy wu david kudla from mainstay Phil Brancato with us at the New York Stock Exchange and Rick Santelli is there in chicago. Amy wu you know you follow the mood of the market the volatility, the options trading. What did you think as the market was crossing that 5,000 level yesterday and now were pulling back. Whats the market doing right now . Whats the message here . Well from the options perspective, obviously volatility has come in a good degree, especially in the front end. One thing here seeing a hedges arent being taken off. Theyre just being rolled out further. So what that tells me is concern in the Options Market still exists. Its just simply being pushed out to june being pushed out to august. It certainly has dissipated. Its interesting. Were keeping an eye on some of the different parts of this market under pressure today as well. David kudla, what do you think is going on today . Well we did have the nasdaq climb above 5,000 and a little bit of profit taking on that. We think investors, you know, need to look at their portfolio, where are you allocated now . We think biotechnology and technology, theres been some concern, but we think they have further to go. Look to europe for some opportunity with the dollar hedged investment in europe, more prodbroadly international. We think theres opportunity there as the u. S. Market continues to move to new high approximates. Phil weve gotten how many months, a couple years without a 10 correction. This market now were at 5,000, a number we hadnt seen in 15 years. Is this the end of a time frame for you or are you still going to see this market go much higher from here . Im still very bullish on the market. I think when you look at the nasdaq for example, simple fun fact, you have a 1. 4 average rate of turn over the last 15 years. Thats nothing compared to the s p. Add to that back in 2000 1 10 of the yield of s p you got out of the nasdaq. Today 60 yield you get versus the s p. Thats a telltale sign for me theres still strength in stocks. The best opportunity will be small and mid cap. As the dollar gets stronger the u. S. Economy heals, i think you will see success in small and mid. I dont hate the nasdaq here. I think the valuations are fair but i think youd have more opportunity in small and mid. But you are at all time highs for the russell and the midcap. They have been setting alltime highs but you still see value. But think of what we want. We want a strong consumer. I know the consumer is not spending at the rate we want. Part of that is in the dynamics the older crowd that is earning money is saving some of it but the health of the consumer has improved year over year, quarter after quarter. If you continue to get that, you will spet for for the market and further strength from here. Look at the sales number. Look at the earnings outside of energy for the first quarter. They look great and thats where the support for the market is. In a way this week is all about a build up to fridays jobs number. I wonder if the auto sales i know youre passionate about cars. Tell us something about the impact we could see from the weather, perhaps the port strike. Will there be variables, rick you think this will make it harder for us to interpret. I think when it comes to autos, were going through a cycle. I think that makes sense. I worry a little more than phil four on the floor lebeau about the subprime percentages. I think tomorrows adp and fridays employment report i think thursdays ecb is more important. Theres a lot of talk after the activists regarding corporates but you have to weigh that against the scarcity of good securities in general. To me you have to go counterintuitive here. All the deep pocketed kind of old primary dealer players and marketmakers whether in corporates or treasuries have decided thats not a profitable business, so all the flippers are now in control of the markets. The day traders. And i think their attention will turn towards mining some of the fairy dust of the ecb quantitative easing thursday, and as i look at what could be the second highest yield close of the year in 10s thats what i read into the way treasuries are moving right now. Lets bring everybody up to speed on that rick. The anticipation thursday as we get more clarity, more transparency about what the ecb has in mind about its Quantitative Easing Program, what are you guys expecting to hear at that point . How extensive is this Program Going to be . Well i think its going to be extensive in terms of what it purchases and i think traders want to continue to get in front of the buying that the ecb is going to do but theres other issue was that common denominator with the word scarcity. Theyre going to be buying more bunds than anything else so german savers will get penalized the most and it will be hard to draw the kind of numbers they need in some of the security markets, and those are all factors traders will be paying attention to. Everybody stay right there. We will bring another guest in with a story weve been following. John is the ceo of mizuho usa. Are you surprised were not following through from yesterday . I want to talk about a deal you talked about and you announced last thursday. Just following this market right now and whats going on with the stock market these days with nasdaq 5,000. Sure. I think that the market has been looking for growth and innovation, especially in equities, and im surprised that the nasdaq hadnt hit 5,000 before yesterday because its been underperforming the rest of the markets. Our institutional clients had been buying here in front of year end in front of quarter end in order to get invested. John lets talk about what you guys are buying here and thats basically rbs book of business. Here in the u. S. How transformative is a deal it for your presence in this country . Were really excited about this deal. Its transformational for us. Its a huge opportunity for us to catapult our corporate and Investment Banking business to the top ten and then we go from there. How much of this has to do with the advantage you might have from the quantitative easing in japan, looking for the buying power perhaps overseas et cetera. In other words, is this just a strategic move from a u. S. Opportunity point of view or does it go back to the likes of what weve seen from softbank making inroads into Corporate America . I think everything is tied together. Its a global economy. Ive been speaking about japan buying assets, booipuying equity buying outside of japan. They need to get more yield. This is another extension of that. It fits well with our business. Weve been seeing these deals with softbank and other deals. We have a very successful Investment Banking already. This is only going to give us a turbo boost into a different stratosphere. Really, really excited. David, let me get you to comment on that. Here is japans second biggest lender, theyre bleeding cash they have to put some of that to work to get a greater return on their money and theyre looking to the u. S. Loan portfolio of the royal bank of scotland here. Do you think we will see more deals like that . What do you make of that . Yes, i do. I agree with john. Youve got japan with massive quantitative easing relative to its economy, largest of any country in the world, and theyre looking for a place to for assets to purchase and were seeing deals were seeing money move acquisitions outside of japan where they see favorable opportunities. And i think were going to continue to see that. And, amy, what about the impact as well this record corporate debt issuance is having. Im thinking of the deals in the financial space this is being used for, deals outside the financial space, refinancings, Financial Engineering, whatever you want to call it. What kind of impact ultimately is that having across asset markets before we go . Its a great question. I think a lot of it has to do with a lot of corporate debt is used for buybacks. Theres constantly the search for yield. I continue to like selling puts on buyback names to collect yield, which a lot of people are searching for right now in the debt markets, and the other thing i like with this big tradeoff in quantitative easing is everyone is playing the outperformance of europe versus the u. S. I would do the opposite. I would look at efa hedges where you can get 1 in and get 10 out in terms of the high payout spreads right now which are what look attractive to options. Ill take that. What were seeing here phil is we are still an attractive house on the block because of our yields relative to what you can get overseas. You got all kinds of bond buyers coming over here. Now a japanese pank coming over here to buy up the assets of a Scottish Bank in the United States because the return is much greater here. Well what would you rather own, an italian 10year or a u. S. 10year . Its obvious. Where would you want to put your money . Let me go back to something kelly just asked. Ecb is going to be buying italian bonds. That will keep yields low. It will put pressure on our Interest Rate. Add to that if youre a pension fund manager, where would you rather put your money, the ecb will have no choice but to keep bond yields low. Conversely, it will have an external impact on our bond yields. So even if the fed tries to push rates higher theyre probably not going to because of the pressure on our market. One thing about what kelly said. Very quickly. You talked about Corporate Bond issuance. Very important. When you said where is the stock market going . I think its a telltale sign. The more the corporations delever, lower the Interest Rate and short cash the more we will have for cap ex in the years ahead which will drive the markets higher. Its a telltale sign that theres still strength in equities. We can only hope. What happens when you get the october 15 selloffs in an illiquid corporate market. Will stocks follow that as well . The identifies ofs of march are coming up. Thank you for joining us. Very much appreciate that. We have some breaking news on that Homeland Security bill. John harwood, whats the latest now in the house . Bill, the house of representatives has just passed funding for the department of Homeland Security through the end of the year. That ends a political headache for House Speaker john boehner who was concerned that republicans were going to get blamed again for a shutdown of that department. You had a vote in which by 21 republicans voted against this funding bill. Theyre upset, of course about the president S Immigration order, but there were enough people voting in favor of it that they joined with democrats to make a majority well over the 218 votes they needed. I just got off the phone with a republican member of congress who said i hope that the irreconcilable opponents of Speaker Boehner and the dealmaking that hes got to do to govern effectively will learn a lesson from this fight. We will see Going Forward. They havent after the previous shutdowns that republicans participated in. John thank you. Thats our john harwood with the latest on that Homeland Security fight. A busy day for Speaker Boehner. A busy week as always seems to be the case. 92 points lower on the dow. All retreating from record high territory yesterday. The nasdaq meanwhile having a pretty good year up 5 but trading back below the 5,000 mark. Coming up Angel Investor and about. Com founder erer scott kurnit gives us his take on nasdaq 5,000. Well find out what this dotcom crash survivor makes of the latest market. Up next a top new York Financial regulator sounding the alarm about an arm gedon onarmageddonlike attack on banks. Benjamin lawsky when we come back. You can call me shallow. But, i have a wandering eye. I mean, come on. National gives me the control to choose any car in the aisle i want. I could choose you. Or i could choose her if i like her more. And i do. Oh, the silent treatment. Real mature. So you wanna get out of here . Go national. Go like a pro. You just got a big bump in miles. So this is a great opportunity for an upgrade. Sound good . Great. Because youre not you youre a whole airline. And its not a ticket youre upgrading its your entire operations, from domestic to international. Which means you need help from a whole team of advisors. From workforce strategies to Tech Solutions and a thousand other things. So you call pwc. The right people to get the extraordinary done. Welcome back. New York Financial regulator now warning of cyber armageddon for our Financial System saying it could happen within the next decade, maybe sooner and could significantly disrupt our Financial System for a period of time. Joining us now is that financial regulator and a cnbc exclusive. Ben law ski is new york state superintendent of Financial Services, and you have used the term cyber 9 11. That is a major fear in the financial community, isnt it right now . It is and it should be. Look we want to prepare for the worst and hope it never happens, but if we look back on even 9 11, which was obviously a really tragic day for all of us, a lot of people say it was a failure of imagination that led us not to prepare adequately for what occurred that day. We dont want to have the same thing happen here. We want to really imagine the worst case scenarios. Obviously hacking is increasing in sophistication every day. The Financial System and Financial Firms are clearly targets, and we really need to make this and elevate this to a ceo issue and theres a lot of concrete things firms can be doing now to protect themselves. Your office has been criticized in some cases for using your position too much to influence banks, but in this case perhaps that could come in handy. How far are you going between raising alarm and drawing attention to the issue and forcing banks to do more to comply and improve their security, et cetera . Its interesting. I dont know that we will ever have to cross that bridge exactly because the response were getting from the institutions is we know youre right, we want to work with you. This is really something that both regulators need to improve on and the firms need to improve on and its going to be a collaborative process. Well sink or swim in this together. You have said you would write new rules to force them to do this. That seems to suggest theyre not doing what they could possibly be doing to protect themselves. I cant imagine that theyre not doing what they possibly could at this point. Why wouldnt they . I think a lot of them would, and many of them have been doing what they have been thinking all along was the right thing to do better Perimeter Security better fire walls, but theres other new threats were spotting, for example, third party vendor. A bank may be spending millions of years on security but they have an hvac provider or a law firm and if they dont have adequate Cyber Security they can be a backdoor into the Financial Firms. Were talking about getting reps and warranties from all your Third Party Vendors and incorporate them into your contracts. If they dont live up to it they dont get paid those vendors. It will raise everyones level because no matter how good your own internal security is ultimately its only as good as your worst third party vendor. That goes back to the housing crisis. A lot of it is who is to blame, who is at fault when something goes wrong . Is there a legacy from that peered youre trying to incorporate into preventing this next goaround . I dont know, there may be an analogy there but for us the focus is on upping everybodys preparations and upping everybodys levels of awareness. Theres so many things we can do. I will give you another example. Our internet architecture has developed with a user name and password system. You probably both use it when you sign on every morning. Guess what . Very insecure system. Easy when youre running a firm of 20 30 40,000 people to get one of them to give away their password. If they do, you give everyone access to your system. We need to move to a system with more than user name and password. How long will that take . We know of some of the hack attacks that have occurred on banks, on major retailers, and we keep hear being the improvements that will occur whether its Chip Technology on cards or a new system of accessing our accounts online. But this takes time. How much time are we talking about here . Look i think the time for talk is about over. We need to act, and thats why weve begun speaking ab

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