Transcripts For CNBC Closing Bell 20150420 : vimarsana.com

CNBC Closing Bell April 20, 2015

It is up 200 plus points because being cheered on by the reserve requirements in china. This is an internationally lyly oriented market right now. Is that the idea . I apologize if im repeating anything. Bill pointed out the dow is up 217. Lets skip straight ahead to the Closing Bell Exchange and introduce our guests. Joining us at the top of the hour to kick things off. We have price heedley, kate warren from edward jones. And our very own rick santelli. A welcome one and all. Anthony chan the big news this weekend, we have to talk about a china rate cut. The u. S. Central bank the japanese, whats the message to investors. Central banks all over the world are coddling Financial Markets, coddling the overall economy. Thats one of the reasons we dont get big corrections anymore. We get mini corrections. Right after the chinese announcement on friday that they were going to go ahead and restrict margin trading. The analysts warned and said the Financial Markets would melt down on monday morning. You get a much larger than expected easing in reserve requirements. In the United States we had a weak First Quarter. Bill dudley repeating the remarks, saying yes, there were a lot of things going on. If the Financial Markets dont handle fed tightening very much theyll go a lot easier. Of course he gave the usual suspects but what what we knew the usual suspects weeks ago. Why repeat that . Again, coddling the Financial Markets. Jeff kilburg, the volatility were seeing right now, down sharply on fears about greece on friday up sharply with china on monday. Should i be asking what traders are smoking . Did you see what i did there . Its a great point to illustrate. Here in chicago, i want to allude to the way my grandfather used to drive his car, two feet one on the gas pedal, one on the brake. Thats what it feels like here all due to china. They cut the reserve requirement by 100 base points. One of the biggest cuts since the crisis. That flooded the markets with 161 billion or trillion lewan, if you will. It represents 20 trillion of the 70 global trillion in stock markets. It moved it up over 1. 25 . The math doesnt add up. The emotions are high here in chicago. That 161 mini qe doesnt translate into the boost let alone in the global stock market, let alone the s p 500, bill. Kate what about you . What do you think about the impact here . Overall the market is more focused on earnings than it is on whats going on in china and whats going on in greece. Those pictures really havent changed very much. Certainly chinas reducing the reserve requirement is a positive. I dont think we would have seen this rebound solely on that. I think the market right now is certainly has concerns in the background but it focused on earnings. We saw better than expected earnings today, worse than expected on friday. I think well continue this seesaw. Do you agree, price headley, lets face it the volatility has been internationally oriented. Earnings matter but the headlines are still dominating this market right now, dont you agree . Its a headline driven market bill. Its a bit manic depressive on a daytoday basis. If you look at earnings, 76 of s p 500 companies are beating estimates compared to the usual trend of 70 . You could say thats low expectations, they had nowhere to go but up. Thats symbolic of whats going on with equities overall is still the place to be. A lot of people are scared. That means you get very quick snapbacks. People are willing to buy the dips quickly. It helps to have Central Banks coddling. I see the dow going to 20,000 before the end of the year. Whoa. I think its a relative value, p e ratio of 16. I think it has plenty of gas in the tank from here. Wow. Well come back to that in just a second. I wanted to mention oil. We have a couple headlines today watching movements out in the middle east. How much of a bid do you think geopolitical concern is put into oil here or is it rising on better demand . You know, i think its a little bit of both. I do have to say, traders on the floor that were looking at oil as a range, uncertain whether the definitive bottom is in had been thinking they would want to sell rallies. When you read about yemen in the middle east and some of the issues of the day with the United States theyre not turning into a buy dip mentality that is still looking at the oil market in somewhat of a range unsure, if its going to test sub50 levels again. With respect to foreign exchange, the new story emerging is that the chinese have their manage pegged in accordance with the dollar. As the dollar strengths by default, the relationship has been somewhat tainted. China is managing its slowing economy, better than quote, unquote, free markets. Ultimately how they decide where the yuan should be is starting to take on a bigger life. When they made those changes, we see the market response here. The bigger issue im asking you about is as long as other Central Banks are easing and it has the impact of the stronger dollar here in the United States, it lowers Inflation Expectations in this country. You know, were all expecting the fed to raise rates at some point. As long as theyre waiting for inflation to rise if inflation is not rising because of other countries easing will this buy implication mean the fed cant raise rates at the same time . The fed can make that distinction anytime it wants which makes trying to trade on the fundamentals so much more complicated. If we reverse that question and say have we seen a boat load of disinflation or hasnt it been rather steady starting to firm up on a yearoveryear basis, the answer would be yes. They can have it any way they want. It makes it more complicated to translate into a trading strategy. Anthony, you were shaking your head here. Energy prices for example, are up more than 20 from the bottom. I see price pressures creeping up up there. This is not germany. We dont have an export import mostly economy. We know that in germany 50 of that economy is exports. Here on a relative basis were relatively close. I agree with rick. The Federal Reserve canvases both of them. I dont think if china has deflation, which they dont, inflation is up 1. 4 yearoveryear. You brought up inflation here. Some of the forward Inflation Expectations are back above 2 in this country. Is there a turn in inflation that were witnessing here . I have no doubt. If you look at the university of michigan expectations for prices, already that is starting to show some signs of life. We see the anecdotal evidence that wages are rising. Im pretty sure in the next 6 to 12 months we wont be looking at a headline cpi of minus 6. 1 which we have now. Well move into positive territory. Were going in a northern direction, not a southern direction. Kate warren, i noted pong the ten s p sectors that we follow the two today, Technology Leading, followed close behind by utilities of all sectors. I mean which way do you want to go here . You have a growthoiented sector and a defensive oriented sector. I think id be looking more at technologies. Inflation is likely to continue to pick up a little bit. I think that does give the fed, as rick said, it could do whatever it likes. It gives the fed reason to begin to raise rates. That doesnt mean utilities do badly. The growthoriented sectors would do better. Its an unusual combination but its probably due to concerns that while were seeing china ease that slowing china actually means lower Interest Rates. So its that disconnect as well. Were seeing in other parts of the market. The last word to you, rick do you think the path of least resistance is lower or higher . Has it changed at all lately . I think the path of least resistance is sideways. If theres any move in a quick fashion of more than a dozen basis points i think it would be yields moving lower. Its going lower over my shoulder, kelly. You can hear them screaming in the pits. Is that what it is . Yes. Thats what i heard. Price here on record now, dow 20,000 by the end of the year. Well have you back. Well be talking about this. Thank you all for joining us today. 50 minutes to go into the close, mr. Bill. The dow is up 229 points. The s p adding 21. The nasdaq 66. It is a mirror image of fridays selloff, much more aheard on todays rally. Ibm posting results after the bell tonight. Well bring you the tech bellwethers numbers the second they hit the tape. What ibm unveils could set the tone for wall street tomorrow unless another central bank does something overnight, in the meantime. Up next, under armour shares hitting a record high. The pros debate if under armour is in nose bleed territory and if you should be looking at nike instead. Back in two. 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Hasbro shares have been soaring, thanks to toys based on transformers and marvel comics. Michael kors taking a hit, its been downgraded from neutral to buy. And shares of callaway in the green, it has a buy rating saying market environment is likely to give callaway a powerful and sustainable comeback. Under ar thundershowermour getting a boost, the upgraded outlook comes ahead of First Quarter earnings before the opening bell tomorrow. Back to you. Keeping an eye on that one share. Thank you. Which stock is better in the long run, bill under armour or nike . Bert flickinger likes nike instead. Why, bert . Under armour is on fire here. Nike always wins whether it was jordan whether it was jeter, now with gene jackson running the business. Hes a genius along with phil knight. Nike is always victorious, took out reebok umbro, adidas, converse, they run the table every time. Look at some of the success theyve already had. Yes, sure. Certainly the success theyve had with their endorsements has been just enormous. The masters recordbreaking masters performance by Jordan Spieth super bowl mvp and likely nba mvp in curry. The under armour brand is on fire. If you look at nike, they generate 37 billion at sales. Under armour is roughly 4. If they can get 15 to 20 billion, theres well north of a billion dollars plus in annual Free Cash Flow. If you apply nikes potential Free Cash Flow the market cap could more than double from here. Wow. Are we making a fair comparison here gentlemen, of nike versus under armour . Is nike john necessarily the bogey that under armour is going after, do you think . The markets theyre growing in are growing rapidly right now. The Activewear Market domestically and globally is growing rapidly. Both companies are taking advantage of the pie. Two incredible companies with be two marketing giants and ultimately we think under armour has a massive opportunity. Ultimately we think under armour gets well north of 15 billion in sales. If you look from a valuation perspective at the three large cap competitors, pure play competitors in the apparel space, vf nike and hanes. Multiply under armour at 15 billion, 20 billion in sales by that multiple, the market cap could much more than double. Bert make the case for nike as an investor from here, to do something other than collect the cash flows that will continue to generate. Do you see Growth Potential . At 85 billion in market cap, how much bigger than nike get . Its a value growth company. Whatever under armour has undertaken, nike has prevailed. They can take technology and catch up to under armour quite quickly, the same way nike prevailed in american football then world cup football. Every single sport nike has taken on nikes always been the clear winner under armour is a very good company but in the long run, everyones always placed bets on nike to win and its always won. That hasnt been the case with nike competitors. What about johns point, though, the pie is growing . Is it necessarily a zero sum game, if nike wins under armour loses . Its not a zero sum game. The share that under armour and nike will get will come from adidas, reebok, umbro, gappage gappage gap athletica. Thank you for your thoughts today. Thank you. Appreciate it. I thought we had joe kernen coming on to talk to us. I had to keep hesitating before i said johns name. 40 minutes to go until the close. Were pretty much near the highs of the day. A strong snap back from fridays broadbased selloff. A lot of discussion on what is driving this spectacular rebound. Mobilegeddon, google changing the way it ranks search results and Small Businesses especially run the risk of getting left behind with this new algorithm. The pros tell you what you need to know about this. Thats coming up on closing bell. Stay tuned. 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Now i have less diabetic nerve pain. And i love helping first graders put their best foot forward. Ask your doctor about lyrica. Welcome back. All ten sectors of the s p 500 in the green today. That index broad market up 1 today or 21 points for better than 2100. 2,102 to be exact. The dow adding 226 points the nasdaq up 66. So the strength today is pretty broad based. I happen to know by the way this is the best day for the nasdaq since january 22nd. That will do it. There you are. That bill, that were looking at as discussed, the s p 500, not a lot of red on that board. Hasbro is the best performer. Follow by csx and amazon. And i cant see what the worst performers are. Well get those for you later here. We do know google a lot of Tech Companies having a strong session as well. Google in the news for changing the way it lists searches if a website is mobile device friendly will be ranked higher than those who arent. Some are calling this mobilegeddon. Interesting development here. Lets talk about it. Aaron shivers, chairman and ceo of patriarch equity. Good to see you both. Thank you for joining us today. Good to see you, bill. What do you make of this . Now they want to move more toward mobile makes sense doesnt it . Theyre very smart. What happened in 2013 they recognized that mobile was going to be the future. They gave advertisers the ability for really nothing to if you advertised via the web that you would also be able to get mobile. What happened was, the negative implication is that that drove down click costs. People saw that advertisers saw that it wasnt converting as well. So what they recognize is to stay dominant they have an 87 position on mobile search is that theyre better off making sure that businesses are changing the experience so that you get higher conversions. Thats whats behind this overall mass website massacre if you will thats coming. Welcome. Its great to see you. Listen, i wonder how much this tells us not only about googles dominance in mobile search but the fact that quite frankly people arent using mobile search so much to transact. Is there weakness that google is responding to within their Business Model . Can you hear me . Yes, go ahead. I think eric hits on the key point here which is people are searching from their smartphones. Google executive said last year says he wouldnt be surprised if the queries on smartphones passed thepass ed queries on personal computers. When we click on links, we arent getting the experience. The text may be too small. The links may be too close together. These websites arent always designed for a small smartphone screen. You may not convert as well or buy something. And thats problematic. As a result people arent spending as much money for the mobile clicks. Rolfe, you said a company like aeropostale may find its results are no longer as prominent as they were. Why is that . Exactly. The other interesting thing about this particular change is google its unprecedented, google gave everybody a huge warning. They said this change is coming april 21st. They never do that. They never give you the heads up. They also gave people a test tool. You can see which sites are friendly or not. If you type in aeropostale, for example, it says its not mobile friendly, its not ready for this change. Which is interesting. Youd think its mostly mom and pops but some big sites arent as well. As i read through all of this this the question that kept coming back to me my goodness look at the power that google has in all of this. Do they have much power . If they had meaningful competition, would advertising costs go down lower than right now, do you think . Sure. Its ultimately about the fact that theyre able to capture the eye balls and theyre capturing the streams of people. But at the end of the day, google is really helping Small Businesses because smartphones are not going away. This is wher

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