Coming up, well tell you whats behind the crude comeback. Thats coming up in just a moment here. Janet yellen and the fed leaving rates unchanged for now, but a warning that a hike could come in december. Well look at the impact that theyre having. Meanwhile, hes at it again. Carl icahn revealing hes taken a large stake in insurance giant aig and hes urging the company to split into not two, but three separate companies. We have the latest details on that. The stock has been up about 4 or 5 in todays trade. Lets begin with todays spike in crude oil. Jackie deangeles, back about 45. Good afternoon to you. This was a move that took a lot of traders by surprise. Let me break down what happened for you. The session low, 43. 06. You can see this incredible range that we went through today. The rebound in part was due to the fact that there was some selling pressure in the last three sessions. Not really enough conviction to take us down to 40 as some were predicting. Ahead of the fed this morning, we have a weaker dollar. We had equities that were moving higher, so those factors were supported. I know those elements have changed a little bit after the statement came out, but longterm oil traders feel that those will still be supportive factors for crude oil. Having said that, the inventory that came out, three million barrel build. It was a little bit more than traders were expecting a couple of days ago. It was set up by the api report last night. They explained it away as seasonal. This is the kind of action that we see in inventories this time of year. Long story short, we did see this move higher today, because as i said, the conviction just wasnt there. At this point, now that were over 45, closer to 46, traders are saying we can take a little bit of a pop and maybe touch that 50 mark again. Back to you. All right, thank you. Watch it closely. We talk about how much that may play into a move in december. Steve liesman has more from washington. The Federal Reserve downgrading its october statement its concern over Global Economic and financial development. Its now monitoring those issues rather than saying its worried about their effects on the u. S. Economy and on inflation. Second, the fed downgraded the job market, saying it slowed, even while it upgraded the assessment of consumer and business spending, saying theyre growing at a solid rate. Finally, the big one. The fed put a december rate hike back into play in a big way. The new statement says, in determining whether its appropriate to raise the target range, the committee will assess progress both realize and expected towards its objective of maximum employment and 2 inflation. Look at that statement at its next meeting. Thats what you want to focus on. These changes i think reflect the sense weve reported on. The fed went too far. And that prompted markets to overly price out the chance of a september rate hike. The fed wants that flexibility back. Heres the question. Should you infer this is a done deal . I dont know. It would be hard for the fete to put it back in play and then not do it. Now the real debate. How much strength does the fed need the economy to hike . Id venture not a whole lot. Well pick right up with that in a moment. Thank you for now. I am here in boulder, colorado. Were going to show you many of the candidates in preparation for tonights gop debate, where we also expect a lot of commentary about the fed and about the economy. Theres ben carson, having a look around. Hes onstage right now. Carson the frontrunner in the latest New York Times cbs poll of republican primaries. Thats going to put all the more focus on him in just a couple of hours. Theyll be tested about his views on some of the more contentious issuicon ten contentious issues. Dr. Carson being briefed. Ill give a shoutout to our coordinating producer who is briefing him right now on what to expect. After the debate. Lets get to our closing bell exchange. We have Keith Fitzgerald with us from moneymorning. Com. John, ill start with you. Why did the markets sell off . The dow is up 110 points when the fed statement came out. And then it went negative. What happened . Thats the normal knee jerk reaction. It would have had a knee jerk reaction. Its just normal. The Computer Systems start to read the headlines. The market really tries to figure out exactly how the market is going to react to this type of tape, this type of headline. Thats why weve rebounded back to pretty much where we were before the announcement. No real news coming out of washington. They put a date of december on the timeline here. Weve had timelines before. So how is that really going to contribute to market activity . We talked about the risk of negative rates here. Its been a topic of conversation. Now with this commentary out of the fed. How much does that change the investing landscape . The dollar is whats surging. Weve had a massive runup here in the stock market on the idea that the fed was not going to raise the rate and would remain easy for longer. It does not look like thats the case. The dollar is surging. Youre going to get a massive dollar rally now. And in six months from now, well find the fed realizing whoops, we made a mistake. You and i talked about this before the show. You think its more likely were going to get a rate increase now in december. I think its very difficult to come out and change that language and then not raise rates. Things could deteriorate. The economy is getting weaker. We know that. So it will probably deteriorate a little more. Thats a strong change in language. The fed is trying to use that as a signaling mechanism. I would suspect that theyd probably follow through. Just to read exactly the statement here that is shaking markets today. The fed said in determining whether it will be appropriate to raise the target range at the next meeting, the committee will assess progress both realized and expected towards maximum employment and 2 inflation. What targets are you going to be watching . Im going to be watching those things, too. What nobodys asking is why is the fed so very determined to do this despite a global chaotic situation . Despite data that is what it is. And a labor market thats not as tight as they think it is. Theyre wanting to lower rates in 2016. So theyve got to get ahead of that and actually raise them now. I think december is a good bet. Weve got this rally in the dollar. Brian thinks weve got a monster rally still to come. But oil is higher. Weve got inventory that pushed that one higher today. Is that bullish for stocks . Weve come back. Were up 110 points again where we were before. Whats the expectation . I think its bullish for stocks. The rally that weve seen here in oil and getting close to that 50 a barrel level. Thats been very important. I think investors have really been using that gauge to determining whether our economy is healthy and what the ongoing environment is going to be with Oil Prices Trading where they are. As we get through the end of this month here, later in the week, we are going to see some movement and some more volatility into this market. We have spoken about it. It gets earlier and earlier every year. I think were going to have to see that again this year. Historically over time, it does happen. Its just a question of how does the Fourth Quarter play out especially with goi dance moving forward . Let me go back one more time to this statement. Uidance movin forward . Let me go back one more time to this statement. Talking about the need to see progress towards maximum employment and the job gains have been steady on that front, but also the need to see progress towards 2 inflation. Which as you know, consumer sentiment, whether its marketbased sentiment. Those will be moving in the opposite direction. Do you think its the feds expectation well finally see a rebound . I think its the fedex peckation. Theyve been expecting that rebound for a couple years now and it hasnt come. So clearly theyre wrong. Theyre going to be wrong again. But thats fine if they want to continue to think that. I think for them being hawkish, its a massive mistake. Its not appropriate. If fed funds were at 3 right now, nobody would be talking about a liftoff or a rate hike or anything. They should just wait. But listen, theyve been wrong before, theyre going to be wrong again. Well said. All right, guys. Good to see you all. Appreciate your thoughts on this important day for the markets. See you guys later. Appreciate it. Were heading to the close here. By the way, how you doing, kell . How are things in boulder . You know, its exciting out here. Ive got to say. It is a full house. It is a full operation, by the way. Tons of security. A huge setup. Its taken over the entire place and the excitement is palpable. It really is. The center of gravity is definitely in boulder, california, thats for sure. Right now, though, with 50 minutes left in the trading session, weve had a comeback rally. The dow was up 110 points at 2 00 eastern when the fed announcement came out. We sold off, went negative, and now were up 100 points again. And we have a busy show ahead, everybody. Wall street heavyweights Mohammed El Erian will give us his take on the decision. After the bell, well preview the numbers coming up in a moment here. Bring them to you when they hit the tape and break them down with our team of analysts. Plus, the president ial debate kicks off in less than three hours from right now. Well have pregame coverage starting at 5 00 p. M. Eastern. Be sure to join us. If youre not near a tv, you can still watch the debate at cnbc. Com and on your ios, android, or apple tv app. Just sign in with your tv provider. Pro users will also be able to watch the live stream on cnbc. Com. Were back in two. Hi watson. Annabelle, your birthday is tomorrow. Im turning seven. What did you ask for . A princess. And a pony. You like things that begin with p. I like pink frosting too. Will you have a cake . Yeah. I was too sick to have one last year. The data your doctor shared shows you are healthy. Are you a doctor . No. I help doctors identify cancer treatments. I want to be a doctor someday. I can help with that too. Watson, i like you. Its been a tough 24 hours for twitter stock falling the most since late august on disappointing revenue and profit projections for the Fourth Quarter. 18 analysts have cut their price targets. They say they are concerned about user growth and User Engagement at twitter. That despite the companys earnings beat. They are still concerned about the long road ahead for jack dorsey and company at twitter. Meantime on to mergers and acquisition moves that move stocks today. Reversed yesterdays gains. Likely to get involved in reviewing this deal. Walgreens 9. 4 billion buyout. Third largest drugstore chains. Better than expected earnings as well. Also some merges in acquisitions action in the snack aisle, with sniders lance buying Diamond Foods for about 1. 25 billion. Meanwhile, cnbc broke some news about the hospitality industry. Sources telling david faber that hyatt is in advanced talks to buy starwood hotels. You stole it right out of my mouth. For more, lets bring in patrick schultz. Welcome to you. What do you think is a primary motivating factor . I cant stay for sure. I dont want to speculate on rumors. But the reason a company would be in a brand or a company like starwood, first off, would be their global footprint. Starwood gets the greatest amount of their earnings overseas at 50 . That would be reason number one you get a Large International footprint just like that. Secondly, theres the opportunity for a new Management Team to come in and help turn around the sheraton brand. Sheraton has lagged such as the hilton or the marriott brands. And then third, certainly with any m a here, there would be the synergies of the corporate costs in the acquisition. Youre being very coy here. There are some other hotel chains that have said theyre not interested in going after starwood. But there is talk of maybe a Chinese Company. There are three that could be identified. But the Chinese Government would choose one of them to be the company to go after starwood. Is that what youre thinking . Is that a more likely merger than with hyatt . I dont want to say who is the most likely. A lot of companies as evidenced by various wall street Journal Articles and cnbc. Information coming out. I believe that a Major Chinese player is kicking the tires just as perhaps a number of u. S. Hotel companies, as well as private equity companies. Where are we generally in the cycle for the hotel space . Which has seen a nice recovery. How much of those gains have been made . Whats the outlook looking for their ability to increase revenue for available room Going Forward . Is that plateau one of the reasons we might not see more deal activity . Youre hitting the right spot there. Were at a very mature later stages of the hotel cycle. We had five, six years. That doesnt last forever. The challenge for the Hotel Companies is theres pressure by wall street and investors to continue to accelerate earnings growth. Growth is no longer accelerating. Revenue per available room. A key metric. You have to look at m a to supplement that growth. Youre hedging, probably for compliance reasons. Perhaps. I respect that. You do expect more mergers than acquisitions. Does it make sense for International Companies to merge with u. S. Based companies at this point . Well, lets think about a Chinese Company and ill relate that to a deal which has happened with the waldorf astoria. A wellregarded business operations. I think a lot of that goes to spreading your money globally. I think we got our answer there. Good to see you. Heading into the close. 40 minutes left into the trading session. The modest rally. Nasdaq is up the most percentagewise with a 32point gain. The s p up about 13, kelly. The real significance. Up next, why carl icahn is taking a large stake in aig, and calling for it to split into three companies. Were back right after this. When youre not confident your companys data is secure, the possibility of a breach can quickly become the only thing you think about. Thats where at t can help. At at t we monitor our Network Traffic so we can see things others cant. Mitigating risks across your business. Leaving you free to focus on what matters most. In panama, which is a city of roughly 2 million people, we are having 5,000 new cars being sold every month. This is a very big problem for us with respect to fast and efficient transportation. Its kind of a losing proposition to keep going this way. We are trying to tackle the problem with several different modes. One of them is the brand new metro. We had a modest forecast 110,000 passengers per day in the first line. We are already over 200,000. Our collaboration with citi has been very important from the very beginning. Citi was our biggest supporter and our only private bank. We are not only being efficient in the way we are moving people now, we are also more amicable to the environment. People have more time for the family and its been one of the most rewarding experiences to hear people saying the metro has really changed my life. Welcome back. Things are really heating up. There you can see Carly Fiorina touring the stage, as many of the other candidates have already done. Getting a feel for things, and as you mentioned, you can see different members. Theres Samantha Wright talking about how its all going to work. We saw ben carson do that earlier. There is quite a scrum gathering behind. Yes. A lot of energy, im sure, in those two rooms tonight. Meantime, back here, a lot of energy today involving aig. Check out the companys stock, up 4 . The insurance giant getting that lift after cnbc broke the news that carl icahn is pushing for it to split up. Bob pisani is on the floor here with more now. The important thing is, icahn comments have generated a lot of trading. Here they are. Aig up 4 . Thats very good volume for aig. Heres what carl icahn essentially said to the board. He sent a letter saying he wants to split the board. Hes proposing the company is split into three parts. A mortgage, a life, and a property casualty. Theyd have a more competitive structure and the valuations would be higher than the individual companies that you have right now. The company is not standing stim. Theyve already responded. Peter hancock is the ceo. He released a response to this. A 99 drop that helps to have the government involved in the company and inject finances into the company, money into the company. As you can see, its come back from there. Right now, id say the company is much better than a lot of people thought it was going to be. Reasonably good cash flow. Theyve doubled the dividend. Its got a 1. 7 dividend. And they raised the buyback. I guess the question is whether this is really practical. I think a lot of people think it makes some sense to split it up and the Companies May indeed have higher valuations. But i think youll find hancock is going to try to say at the earnings call, the Conference Call, that its not practicable to do that at this time. There were a lot of questions about how they would do this. I dont hear people saying this is a crazy idea. Maybe not practical. Its one thing to ask Peter Hancock his view of that. I wonder what Hank Greenberg would say, the very influential former ceo of aig who built that empire. I wonder what he thinks about the idea of splitting up into three companies . Probably what hes doing is just smiling and saying were trying to figure out how to add value to a company that i always knew had value, and had we had not had such problems with the government, it would have been worth even more. Im not sure how they would split it into three companies. This is very much similar to whats happened with citigroup and the whole travelers thing. They argued he put that giant company together. And then had them preside partly over the dismantlement. As carl icahn said, it was too big to succeed, the phrase he used. Lets get to sue herera. Heres whats happening at this hour. House republicans have nominated representative paul ryan as their choice to succeed