For the week but look at that. Were just off the highs of the session right now with the dow up 286 points. We have been tracking overnight sessions in japan, which is hit really hard this week, down more than 10 . But we have black rock global chief investment strategist joining us and he says the market looks attractive right now. Is square a takeover target . Visa revealing its stake in the Payments Company and some on wall street say the move could be paving the way for m and a in the category. Watch out netflix, apple is preparing the First Scripted Television Series starring dr. Dre. We will get details coming up. The markets soaring right now, what happened to all of the recession talk this week . Some say the economy and stocks are actually telling us two Different Things right now, Steve Liesman has what the economy is saying and dominic chu looks at the market. I love starting a debate with my opponent mortally wounded because stocks are higher. Im not more tally wounded. Its a flesh wound. Economists are looking at and saying, it doesnt look like theres a recession in the cards. First thing we want to look at here. Weve had decent data on growth. Cnbc rapid update, 2. 5 , nice bounce back from the week in the Fourth Quarter. Jobs 4. 9 unemployment. Consumer doing well. Ive got low oil prices and low inflation and have zero. 5 gain in wages in the last jobs. This morning this is really interesting. An absolutely sterling Consumer Credit report where the lowest bankruptcies and foreclosures in 2015 in the 13 years the new york fed has been measuring it. The cost of servicing debt is now also at an all time low. Consumer in very good shape to spend because of all of these things. The consumer will drive the economy. I know there are weaknesses, manufacturing and overseas growth. We have debt issues but overall, i think these prevail in the economy. Not injure stinking stock market, dominic chu. Were going to balance things out a little bit. The markets may be telling a different story. You go ahead. A point counterpoint. All of steves points are correct. We dont see that much craziness happening if you look at overall whats going on with the markets, we have plunging u. S. Treasury yields. Why . Because we have no threat of inflation, maybe no threat of growth. Im not going to argue with you, you have the floor. All right. It could be not going to say anything. Just going to say that. Maybe those treasury yields, ten years touched 1. 56 yesterday, at a whopping 1. 75 right now. Its not telling us very much in terms of expecting a lot of growth or inflation. Thats not maybe a good sign here. Also the strength in the japanese yen, also viewed perhaps as a way to gauge risk. Really, thats what you got . A strong yen . It could be. Go ahead. How about this, steve, because markets are a discounting mechanism. Arguably, theyve already taken into account every single bit of data that steve just put up there yet global stocks as measured by the msci, old world stock index entered bear market territory. Youve got Government Bonds let me ask a question about the last one. Why wouldnt global stocks, taking into account the decline in earnings, and is it possible even likely that you have this decline in profits from by the way, an all time percentage of u. S. Gdp. Profit margins all time high. Coming down with higher wages and stocks are discounting correctly profits recession but perhaps not an economic recession. I would say maybe its not the profit recession but were on the krus p of what could be four straight quarters of sales declines. Thats true too. Top line Revenue Growth at s p 500 companies is on the verge of being down four straight quarters year over year. That Means Companies arent selling as much stuff. I will cut the deficit, expand Social Security and. I gotten Chicken Nuggets for 1. 49. Why is it that the best rated Corporate Bond market for investment rated companiy deteriorating horribly. Bear had had corporate debt come to market and approaching levels that have been a warning sign in the past. These are main street companies and big employers youre talking about . Kelly, i dont discount the idea that there is a warning sign out there that those warning signs are the things that create the fear. But you cant create the reason from the question itself. In other words, why are corporate blowing out because they are concerned. I agree theres concern and but let me also be the first one to undercut my own argue the and say it is possible for the u. S. Economy to stop on a dime and doesnt always give warnings of a recession. Im just saying when i look at the current data, even if i acknowledge that its soft, theres no way that i can correlate this incredibly bearish outlook from the stock market with the current Economic Data and what it may show about the future. I would say this, guys, none of us is really arguing that we are in in the u. S. Here. Were not in a recession. Some are. Maybe some are. Were not trying to make the case were in a recession. Just that there are some indicators out there that show maybe there isnt as much strength in the economy an that is still a possibility and thats what markets are taking into account by showing you the prices. As one viewer commented, jobless recoveries to jobful recessions. Im going to put a chicken in every pot. And car in every driveway. And car in every driveway. Thank you. Well leave your pictures at the door. Well get back to you. See you later. Lets get to our closing bell exchange, with us is greg from the wall street journal who pretty much covered this entire topic in a terrific column in the journal today. Hope you get to see that. Ken mahoney is also with us here at post nine. So is peter costa from empire executions and Rick Santelli is in chicago. Greg, where do you stand . Could we talk ourselves into the recession if the markets continue this down slide. Economy is what the Economic Data is showing us. Its very hard to see in the data what is actually a recession. But we know one reason all of us have such a terrible job at forecasting these things because its such a big psychological component. Theres a lot of businesses trying to decide this the right time to make that investment and hire that employee. They look at the market down and have second thoughts. We just heard chuck robins from cisco report that earnings had been light because they are looking at the market and wondering is this the right time to make that investment . Best buy got downgraded bid an analyst because they thought Consumer Discretionary is the next thing to suffer. I dont think well have a recession but the odds are komt fortably high but our cruising speed in this economy is very low, 2 . By definition, the closer you are to the ground higher the margin of error, right. Ken, what what are you doing here . We are look at the market as a leading Economic Indicator and were kind of negative. We lower lows and lower highs in the s p 500, look at days today, sell into these rallies. Especially banks. Banks here got a nice lift on buy backs and so forth. They are an openty miystic bunc anyway. 14 countries have negative rates. Thats a headwind for earnings. I dont know how you get through that. Definitely negative on banks. Peter, you famously got back in at 1865 and acknowledged you may be early in that. You have been. I have been. What are you doing now . I would like to Say Something about candidate liesmans presentation, if you are janet yellen and saw that, you would be raising rates the next meeting because that just shows you we got all of thf bright that was the first thing she mentioned in her testimony, look at jobs. Look at jobs. I dont think its going to happen and i dont think it should happen but there are certain things that are starting to make you believe that thats potentially could happen. But i got in a little early but weve had a couple of dips where ive gotten back in as well. Youre i dont like timing it but i do think there are opportunities. My time frame is different than some people, their time frame might be three months. Mine is longer. Rick, i would love to know where you come down on this. Do you think the fed should be paying attention to real Macro Economic variables or market financial signals . I think she should be looking at it all. Im always shocked at in my impression how little they look at. Janet yellen still talks as if the dollar is at 100. I know 96 is only 4 away. But the fed should be looking at everything, just like traders do in real time, handicapping real changes. They should be looking at it all. I think what they should be looking at the most is how the japanese market has responded since the 19th of january. When they did their negative push, okay, nothing is better to educate than actually using the eyesight, sense of seeing and it just seems to be lost. I mean, negative Interest Rates is the story this week. My guess is its going to be the story for a lot of weeks. Now, maybe japan can United States the test tube some more and try to help the condition of their stock market and counter intuitive aftermath of their currency rally but this is ground breaking. This is huge. And i think that the world should be a bit nervous about negative Interest Rates. I think its a horrible idea and japan seems to be doubling down on the notion if youve read some of the latest headline. I guess what i remember most, in 2013, 2014, part of 2015, releasing numbers, thinking the numbers werent that great and stock market kept making record after record after record. You know why the stock market looks so confusing now . Because everybody forgot how confusing it was when it did nothing but go up and ignore data that was at best mediocre and thats when we considered it good. That was a good five or sixyear rally we had going on. How much of this are we not attributing enough to the international influence on aur own economy. Commodity inflation that we experienced in this country was not our fault. It was china and the huge demand and now its going the other direction right now. How much of that should we be taking into consideration as well . China is 10 of the world gdp. Just we have to care more than we ugsed to. A big chunk of s p 500 revenue dom was talking about, revenues being very weak, thats because of the translation of the very big rise in the dollar. So the stock market in particular has to be very sensitive to whats going on in the international scene. Its harder to make the case that the u. S. Consumer or business that sells to the consumer should be equally worried. If youve seen the latest confidence numbers, it looks like were starting to see a little bit of a lift from the low gasoline prices. I take a little bit of comfort what weve seen in the last 48 hours that some of the positives are finally beginning to be felt and we may be hitting bottom in terms of how bad the international influences can be. I wonder, if the market telling us as well, that it doesnt like the idea of negative Interest Rates but if the fed could come back in with talk about easing and maybe other Central Banks, shouldnt have to be the fed but the dollar is involved. This rerun out of things to buy . Do they not like going that route . Why is everybody going negative . I think theres two things the market is worried about with respect to the fed. They have a plot out there that tells us their base case is to raise rates and for four or five weeks theyve been saying its a mistake. Janet yellen did not say, youre right, were not going to do that. She did signal there was a pause coming. She couldnt because they look at the data. But underneath that is something else. Even if the fed did capitulate, they only have 25 basis points. Youre watching yellen being grilled by lawmakers, but she should ask questions, what have you done on the fiscal side . Somewhere along the way, state lawmaker ez, what can you do . Thats more surgical when it comes to tax and spending and monday policy is a blunt instrument. You have to look at the fiscal side of things. 300 point rally after four consecutive down days this week. Not including fridays big selloff. Oil is leading this charge clearly. Its oil leading it right now. I think there was also positive data this morning. Weve been under a lot of pressure and sometimes there are bounces and with the way the market is, you have the 300 point moves on the down side, everybody can understand that but moves on the upside, even though its churning and a lot of churning and people are rotating back into certain sectors. Theres certain good like the financials for example. Thats a start to see that happening with more money moving into the financials again, thats a very good signal. Im not going to say thats going to happen but if you see that continued, thats a positive. If youre looking to buy financials, you can buy them from ken mahoney. Im not looking for them. Thanks, guys, appreciate it. Have a good long weekend. 45 minutes to go here and again, when our markets close, the next one really will open up significant is going to be china after having been closed for a week and after having seen Global Markets put in pretty shoddy performances. The area where stress was coming from and reacting to what weve seen is why people are a little bit concerned into the weekend but its not showing up in the markets here today. China will trade it twice before we open on tuesday. Thats right. And the dow here with all of that going on is up 301 points and vix down more 2. 45 points and transports up 150 and nasdaq 69. Transport is up even though crude oil is on track for one of the best gains since 2009. When we come back, well talk about whats driving this spike today, the oil boil as one viewer tweet d us here on that one. Well talk about whether the gains are here to stay as well. Also ahead, a prime takeover target, well hash that out with kayla taushe. It started with a single connection. And the network was born. It soon grew from a luxury to a necessity. So at t built a network just for you. One that connects your businesses, devices, cars, mobile entertainment, family and homes. We grow as you grow. Always evolving. To work for you how and where you need it. This is your network. The network of at t. Welcome back, were going right to the sectors, for the week, Consumer Staples, perhaps immune to some of the things were seeing right now. The Consumer Retail sales look good, not great for january this morning of the Consumer Staples up for the week and everybody else lower, especially financials down 6. 7 . Todays rally makes a huge difference, coming into the season, the financials were down 6 on the week. Now a much less worry some 2. 4 . 2. 3 , i was reading the index number not the percentage there, my bad. Improvement certainly over the picture that was being painted this morning. For sure. Oil prices, this might have a lot to do with it, really spiking. Remember yesterday, they were up 3 off the lows, if you saw yesterdays show, anyway, crude oil is up 3 bucks or 11 . Sparked by comments from the uae production minister that a cut could be coming. That remains to be seen though. A lot of skepticism on that. Lets bring in anthony from grz energy. Do you buy i mean, the market responded immediately, big rally. Immediately. But there is everybody i talk to and every human being seemed to discount that that wasnt going to happen. What do you make of this . I dont buy it. If you look at the timing of those remarks somebody did. We were ready to make exactly, somebody did buy it. The weak shorts bought it. But if you look at the timing of those remarks, it came in at the point where we were ready to set new lows that were through 2003 lose for oil. It was right on the cusp of that and then if you remember, we were above 31 when this started and once we drop below 30, this looked very weak. I counted up a few lots and it looked like about 15 to 20,000 new shorts came in between monday and thursday of this week. You know what happened . They all covered today basically. What i was going to ask, people looking at the broad markets and move in oil are wondering how much of this might be short covering. What would you venture to say. The vast majority will be short covering, maybe two out of three dollars. The other dollar rally that we did see is going into long weekends, historically the market does rally. If there are a lot of shorts in a position, nobody likes to be short going into any long weekends because what happens is any kind of news that comes out will spike the market rather than drop it further. So a lot of those shorts came in, a lot of them covered, going into long weekend. I looked it up. Before thanksgiving, before christmas, before new years, all rallies up 2 and above in oil prices. Youre selling this rally then . Im selling this rally. As you mentioned, china opens up on monday and tuesday. Lets see how those markets react. This is a little overdone to the upside as the oil market does. It gets overdone to the upside. Theres huge amount of supply out there. No reduction in production. So theres no reason to think that any of that is going to change any time soon. I want to sell these rallies. Very good, anthony. Always good to see you. Have a good weekend. Anthony grisanti and you can hear they are starting. They started early this afternoon the tradition you get on floor of the New York Stock Exchange before a threeday weekend. They are closed on monday for president s day. A rally continues and dow up just under 300 points for this friday, capping off what had been a very weak week for the markets. Up next, is square ripe for a takeover. Well discuss that. Black rocks global chief investment strategist says japan is the place to invest right now, even as stocks cap off their worst week since 2008 and that financial crisis. That and more coming up on closing bell. In new york state, we believe tomorrow starts today. All across the state the economy is growing, with creative new business incentives, the lowest taxes in decades, and university partnerships, attracting the talent and companies of tomorrow. Like in utica, where a new kind of workforce is being trained.