To raise rates it could increase in inflation. He doesnt conclude that would happen but we need to think about that. He repeats kind of the normal argue amount for raising rates and says f1 policy remains extreme and inflation is close to target. Not strictly endorsing but saying thats the normal argument for why rates should be normalized. Former Federal Reserve chairman ben bernanke out with a blog about negative Interest Rates and says the fed is not out of ammunition but there are signs Monetary Policy is reaching its limits. They include lowering rates but not much to do there. A quarter point. Forward guidance could be powerful. More quantityive easing and negative Interest Rates. What does he say sna that evidence from europe suggests they might be more powerful than had previously been thought and argues anxiety over negative rates could be overdone. Banks could still earn a profit by charging a higher rate than they pay. Bernanke also says negative rates have modest benefits and manageable costs but points out there are legal issues and could hurt money market funds and probability of negative rates are low in the u. S. In the foreseeable future. Bill, a theer receipt cal thing about this new idea that the rate you said gives inflation you said and ben bernanke weighing in on this controversial issue. Steve. How much of a change in tone is this, milton freedmans 90th Birthday Party or speeches largely address s bank of japan at the time but saying were sorry we did it, were sorry, wont let it happen again, referring to the Great Depression. But also kind of saying quite confidently, Central Banks are never out of ammunitions. I do wonder just how tempered his confidence has been over the past 12 years. I think reality has intruded on the theory as you remember. When he wrote that he was barely a Federal Reserve governor. Its so interesting you bring this up. I happened to interview him when he talked about the helicopter idea and i think ben is a lot wiser when it comes to the practice of Monetary Policy. And hes sort of tempering or changing his thinking with the reality of it and sees issues out there. He is sort of still theoretically saying you know what, the costs are manageable and benefits are there and it may be more powerful. What he hasnt seen in europe is this big whole sale move to cash and that gives encourage. They could be potentially used and one of the things hes arguing, were reaching the end of the tools we use and should think of other tools in case we have another downturn. We should never forget that economic theories constantly evolve. They joke that economics is the only discipline where things work in practice but then dont work in theory. There you are. As i said to you yesterday when we were talking about this, thats why god gave us two hands, on the one hand and other hand. Before we let you go. Remind us again. Is bullardmore hawkish or dovish side. He has been in the middle but some of the theoretical work has been an intellectual pulling guard for the Federal Reserve. His ideas can become policy for the fed so we watch them closely and leaned hawk esh and dovish depending on the latest theory. A little all over the place on this one. We need to think about this idea. This for kelly im saying this, brought up by cochran in case youre interested in you want to look it up online. For kelly, not for bill. No offense, for kelly. Way too deep apparently. I agree. I was thinking back to the old joke about economists it was like, how do you get an economist to fix a lightbulb, assume it is fixed and it was Something Like that. We are in unchartered territories, a huge source of criticism and they are trying to figure out what makes things go and bull ard is bringing up issue, weve been at zero for a long time. It should have caused inflation. Maybe this idea the Interest Rate we set will give us inflation is something we ought to be thinking about as far as he goes there. Thats what critics have been saying for years, hes lending them so credibility here. Thank you very much. Have a good weekend. Harvey from wells fargo and ben willis from princeton securities and Performance TrustCapital Partners from the cme. Ben willis, whats the rally been about, delayed one day after the fed didnt do anything and big rally yesterday, continues today, whats going on here . I think its a followthrough first through the trading side of the equation and when we saw the fed pull back on their expectation of rates. We looked back and see what happened in the Energy Sector in particular. You saw massive short covering, thats telling you trading money, very smart money that had ridden this bear market down in particularly in oil and that changed the whole mentality offered sideline. Were seeing money flow in the marketplace particularly in the consumer side. Still safety issues, seeing money flow into utilities as well. You follow these numbers and i follow out of etf global some of the research on etf side. Youre seeing that money go into those sectors, and bullard put out with the idea that raising Interest Rates may force markets into do something or force inflation ary pressures. The idea that he quoted reality intruded on theory, it was perfect. I will use that one for the rest of my life. It takes me back to my economics class and professor saying please dont talk youve been in the real world, im trying to teach economics here. Speaking of the real world. What about the expirations well witness on the close today . Really a nonevent. The real event was the fed announcement the surprise wasnt that she a low energy trade today were quiet five weeks in a row and two things ben bernanke has to know, the paper on debt deflation cycles look that up on google machine and bernanke has to look at japan. Were exiting policy so this exit will be experimental and a lot of chatter and add to uncertainty. Were going to be all watching the the Central Banks going forward. Were going back to economics classes this week after and notably to the Great Depression too. I guess. Whats a treasury market to do now . Theyve been anticipating a rate hike at some point this year but maybe they wont get one until june, maybe not until december . What are you going to do with this market . I think we may get one rate increase and second half of the year and treasuries to me are still in a trading range. What the fed is doing in the shortened of the curve doesnt have much to do with the 10year. I think the 10year is still in a 1. 5, 2. 45 trading range and the fed has given the all clear for a little bit of speculative end. By the way, what do you like here when we start to look how you play markets in this volatile and unprecedented period for Central Banks . Well, i think that some parts of the equity market are attractive and utilities which has been a real surprise for investors will continue to be an attractive area. They have growth that i think will be competitive with other sectors and i think the Consumer Sectors discretionary resulted to housing and autos will continue to be strong. I think consumer staples. Those areas will continue to be good. I think in health care, some of the tools and devices and Services Companies will be good. They dont have the price fallout that the pharma side does. What are you expecting from this expiration . Brian says maybe a nonevent. I know volume is already very heavy from the open this morning. This is the first big expiration of the year. What do you think will happen over the next 15 minutes. Big volume. I think the bias is to the upside going to the idea of large institutions that are short, forced to cover into this and going back to the segment prior on the dividend side, theres a realignment of the vig etf, the dividend etf. Youll see some plays in particular with these stocks no longer in that group with some pressure coming out. And Trading Opportunities inside if you will and bigger number youll hear from art cashin im sure youll hear to the buy side as we continue with this market. From individual stocks, should have good dynamics. We appreciate everybody being here. With about 50 minutes to go in a market with a dow up 120 points. Week five of this rally from the recent lows and s p up 9 and nasdaq up 22. Starwood now agreeing today to sell itself to a Chinese Company and calling off the deal with marriott. Well take a closer look at all of the foreign money piling into the United States this year, the numbers will surprise you. Also ahead, oil has been on a fiveweek tear along with the stock market, we have someone who says all of the signs are pointing to a sell for crude and hell explain why coming out first in business worldwide. Opportunities arent always obvious. Sometimes they just drop in. Cme group can help you navigate risks and capture opportunities. We enable you to reach Global Markets and drive forward with broader possibilities. Cme group how the world advances. Our cosmetics line was a hit. The orders were rushing in. I could feel our deadlines racing towards us. We didnt need a loan. We needed shortterm funding fast. Building 18 homes in 4 ½ months . That was a leap. But i knew i could rely on American Express to help me buy those building materials. Amex helped me buy the inventory i needed. Our amex helped us fill the orders. Just like that. Another step on the journey. Will you be ready when growth presents itself . Realize your buying power at open. Com man 1 he just got fired. Man 2 why . Man 1 network breach. Man 2 since when do they fire ceos for computer problems . Man 1 they got in through a vendor. Man 1 do you know how many vendors have access to our systems . Man 2 no. Man 1 hundreds, if you dont count the freelancers. Man 2 should i be worried . Man 1 you are the ceo. Its not just security. Its defense. Bae systems. Im a Customer Relationship im roy gmanager. Ith pg e. Anderson Valley Brewing company is definitely a leader in the adoption of energy efficiency. Pg e is a strong supporter of solar energy. We focus on helping our customers understand it and be able to apply it in the best way possible. Not only is it good for the environment, its good for the businesses bottom line. These are our neighbors. These are the people that we work with. That matters to me. I have three children that are going to grow up here and i want them to be able to enjoy all the things that i was able to enjoy. Together, were building a better california. Dow is up 130 points and s p is bumping up against what some traders feel is todays resistance level 2050 and the nasdaq is up half a percent. If youre real good, kelly will tell another economist joke sometime over the next couple of hours. Lets talk about tiffany, rising on better than expected earnings however full year earnings will be unchanged from last year as the lackluster Global Economy has hurt sales, stock up 2. 25 right now. Starwood hotels reaching a deal. 13 billion in cash topping marriotts offer by 15 . Marriott says its takeover offer is still the best. Theyll have to raise it if they want to get into the story. Dominic chu has a look at the surge in Foreign Companies doing deals here in the United States. Big numbers, dom. To add on the starwood discussion, one of the big shareholders, john paulson, Big Hedge Fund manager, just come out according to reuters with comments saying that he welcomes shocking right, this idea of another bitter looking at Starwood Hotels and good for the overall process. Thats breaking in the last few moments or so. Lets get back to the overall picture for it has been a pretty big year for 2016 year to date for cross border deals, specifically the ones targeting u. S. Based companies. Look at the broader stats, according to Richard Peterson at Global Market intelligence, they had about 250 billion in u. S. Volume so far year to date. 250 billion worth. 116 billion, thereabouts involve foreign buyers of those u. S. Assets. Thats about 46 . So nearly half of it is Foreign Companies trying to buys u. S. Companies or units. If you look at some of the biggest yields weve seen so far this year, among the top ten, around seven of them are Foreign Companies targeting the u. S. Ones here. Take a look at the biggest ones out here, shire looking to take over baxalta, anbang insurance trying to take over starwood. Trans canada yesterday trying to buy columbia pipe line, 14 billion. And fortis, looking to buy itc and hna buying ingram micro. Theres not enough room of course heyer trying to buy ges appliance unit and heavy industry in china as well. A big part of this picture so far but a lot of Foreign Companies trying to buy u. S. Assets driving the activity so far in 2016. All right, dom, thank you very much. Lets talk about why more foreign money is coming into the u. S. When it is. Joining our friend rich peterson from Global Market intelligence. Ris stick that jumps out of the top six all time chinese acquisitions in the u. S. , five have occurred this year. Thats amazing. Why now though . These are incredible numbers. I was pondering the data, deal trends and looked at the big deals. Obviously the starwood of anbang in lodging. Back in 2013, Chinese Group bout smithfield food and Package Goods and also recently deals in the entertainment business. I think these are bets on the consumer and still the growing middle class globally and not in the United States, not in asia, worldwide. These entities are looking to make bets on growing middle class worldwide. When chinese are cracking down on people transferring personal wealth out of the country, whether the companies are looking for the same type of diverse fiction. We dont know whats going on in terms of internal politics of these Firm Relationship to the chinese government. But the fact is we talked about as dominic chu said, of the top u. S. Deals this year, seven involve foreign buyers. In canada, the largest ever canadian acquisition in the u. S. Energy sector yesterday with transcanada making the bid for columbia pipeline. Last year record volume, 2. 3 trillion, 450 billion came from u. S. Companies buying abroad. Of the big chunk was pfizer making a bid for allergan. If you extrapolate year to date, well have a record year for foreign acquisitions in the United States. Are they getting a good deal . Ive been hearing a lot of chatter reminding people about the 1980s when the japanese were buying up u. S. Assets at that time and years later had to sell them back at pennies on dollar. Is that likely to happen this time around or are they getting a good value this time . You go back into the way back machine and the japanese were buying Rockefeller Center or pebble beach, buying luxury items in terms of Rockefeller Center, thats a commercial property. Maybe as opposed to now with starwood, more of a Residential Property and going back to my thesis, more of a bid on the middle class, looking at the different times, these numbers are phenomenal. How much more do you expect them to pick up . Were only midway through march here. The fact is theres rumors that German Chemical Company was maybe looking at breaking up the dow chemical dupont bid. A lot of companies in the world of negative Interest Rates, where are you going to put your money . Maybe in u. S. Assets. All of the deals better have good breakup fees, they are going to be needed. Leave that to the lawyers. Thanks, good to see you. Rich peterson. As we head towards the big expiration of the year, this third friday of the month of march, the dow up 128 points off the highs and s p stick holding at that 2050 level. What a tough week for Valeant Pharmaceuticals wiping out more than half its value, meg terrell will tell us if the worst is over. Financials are higher thanks to stock buyback increases at two the biggest banks, well look at the financials maybe have finally turned a corner coming up. Another strong rally day, interestingly it is the strongest of the three averages, both the s p and nasdaq half a percent higher. S p up 10 and nasdaq 23. Heres a look where the strength and weakness is in terms of sectors, industrials leading the way this week. Not just today but this week. You might wonder about names like caterpillar, you know some of the material industrial space thats been outperforming latedy. 3. 5 gain for industrials and 2. 5 higher for materials, and health care is the one in the red down about 2 this week. Lets look at other mover for this friday. Wynn resorts trading higher. Citing a new generation of vip gamblers coming into the area, expects this years Gross Revenue to fall only by 6 compared to the previous forecast of a 13 decline. Adobe systems notching gains today. You heard about it late yesterday. Reported better than expected earnings also gave up beat guidance for the Current Quarter as Digital Media sales surged at adobe shares of valeant are down again