Messenger for business. Listen. Today were launching messenger platform. You can build bots for messenger. Its powered by Artificial Intelligence, build Natural Language Services to communicate directly with people. If youre confused as i am, facebooks head of messaging will join us in an interview to explain it all, david marcus. Lets get started with the market despite the rally, there are a few stocks seek being seeing major weakness. Alcoa, you talked about that last night after unofficially kicking off earnings season yesterday. They had a miss on revenue. Network gear maker juniper under pressure after lowering the guidance late yesterday as well. Michael santoli joins us from the alcoa poster on the floor. What does this for tell for the broader earnings season . The big question is not just how bad but whats the guidance going to be and has the market taken a count of how rough the past three months were. Were expecting a loss of about 9 in terms of s p 500 earnings per share and 121 s p 500 companies delivered guidance for the First Quarter and 78 of those guide downs versus guide ups. 78 were negative and thats above the fiveyear average of 74 . The big question, why the market stabilize then . If the second half of the year, just like in the second half of every single year, the expected earnings are going to pick up and actually return to growth in the third quarter. If you look at that, hockey stick effect rightthere, were going to have a smaller loss in the Current Quarter leading to up 3. 5 and 11 in the Fourth Quarter. Is that what the market is sniffing out. Has the stock market stabilized because its saying this is the earnings trough and just a slowdown not the end of the profit cycle. If you look at sectors, the hardest hit sectors in terms of performance for First Quarter, Energy Materials and financials and industrials all expected down between 9 and 20 in terms of results. Three of those four groups are up year to date so the market seems to be trying to say maybe theyve been overly discounted. I think thats going to remains to be seen. It will be noisy and there will be mine fields and alcoa and juniper told you that. In terms of companies that did deliver negative guidance, tech and consumer were the two big groups that were doing so. I guess because we heard so much negativity into the season you might have thought taken alcoa, that that one could overcome even revenue miss, be able to get its footing on a day when the oil outlook is brightening and maybe feel better about commodities and yet it is trading weekly. Why do you think that is . I think that within the numbers, even though there was a nominal beat on bottom line there was really cautious comments about the outlook. I do think when you have a stock like alcoa, it was up 50 from february into april, you definitely had a lot of people saying maybe its going to be an all clear signal. I dont think that means it has to be broadly the case. I feel like everyone is counting on the fact that u. S. Dollar peaked in march of 2015. That should turn into a tailwind and these globals should be able to tell a somewhat better story. Fastenal, a big fastener company, had a mixed report today too. Trying to look on the bright side there. Thanks very much. Well see mike next hour on closing bell. Lets get to the exchange and talk about Market Action today. Meg green from meg green and associates is back with us and we welcome back ben willis sitting next to me at post nine and Rick Santelli from chicago as well. Up 180 points right now with oil also trading higher. Is oil calling the shots again . This is a great example of the trigger in this marketplace. Theres so Much Negative sentiment built into the marketplace. Huge Short Interest in the spiders and you have the number out today, 11 consecutive weeks of selling and Merrill Lynch smart money a lot of tinder. Oil rallying to the new highs based on a rumor that the saudi arabia and russians were going to limit production at record numbers. They werent cutting anything. This was just were going to stop at this level. That should not be a story. Theres still a lot of risk money being put to work in the emerging markets. Were seeing net flows there and also seeing net flows continuing to go into the precious metals. Thats all more on currency plays on whats going on around the world. This market i think is right now sitting on a ricochet action. Meg you made a similar point how many of your investors are sitting in cash. Why is that a bad idea here . Not our investors im saying worldwide, over 11 trillion earning absolutely nothing. You have to take a little bit of risk to get a little reward. Even if you just sit in the market and some good dividend paying stocks, youre getting two and three and four , which is a far better cry. Take a little volatility, thats okay but you dont want to be sitting in cash. Were always invested. If youre diversified and get back into the emerging markets and into some of the thenings tt have been down, buy low and sell high. You keep rebalancing your portfolios and keep going. Cash is note your king today. And neither are treasuries, rick, were seeing a backup there as well as equities go higher. What do you make whats going on today . Well, you know, i think we have to look at the whole picture here, bill. Lets put the fed in the soap opera, theres going to be no cliff hangers, not going to be doing anything for a while. In that context, it isnt the only the highest price of the year for ill, but highest closing levels since november 25th. If we can show the chart and last significant high close of the year, wasnt that long ago, it was the 22nd of march. You see it there on the chart, 41. 5. Were over 42. Now you know where to put your stock. Even if you believe its a run in a bear market with oil, its going to be a threeway pattern. Why do i bring all that up . Boone yields double in a week, maybe they bottom. This looks to be the highest yield since the 30th of march. All of that put together with the correlations based on trading with oil, i think its kind of clear sailing for a while here, depending on earnings for equities and i think if that occurs in a decent fashion, youre going to see rates climb up a bit. Remember, were flirting with challenging the low yield close for the year at 166. Now were basically up at 180. Be careful here. Ben was talking about with the dollar, some of these moves in gold and other commodities too here. What do you glean from these latest wiggles . I think that weve reached this eye of the storm. Our central bank probably will be active for a while. The political season i know pundits can write what they want, i dont think anyone has a handle how it will affect the market and in europe hope springs he eternal. I wouldnt bet my lifes fortune they would be successful but the market will give a little slack on that. Things are lining up in a light positive for the moment. We have retail sales tomorrow, march number i cant stress how important that is as well. Ben, a little birdie told me the 2062 is a level youre watching on the s p and were above that at the moment. I just got great numbers. Tweet tweet. But his numbers are spot on and i use his numbers to justify when i trade throughout the day. But were above that. Another indication that this market has room to run when is the last time the numbers you cited were that much on one side of the boat here . It goes back the Short Interest back to 2009, 2008, 2009 when we had a major bear market rally because of that large Short Interest and the high yield, the canary in the coal mine, seeing money flows into that. As oil rises the risk comes off and jp morgan was going to put these assets. We have to move along. Trying to get ready for House Speaker ryans News Conference in a few minutes as well. Thank you all for joining us. Facebooks annual conference kicking off today in san francisco. Chat bots and Virtual Reality and Facebook Live were all hot topics, even greater area of focus was messaging. Between Facebook Messaging and whats app, sending 60 billion messages daily. Joining ugsz is david marcus, the Vice President of messaging and julia borsten. Julia . Thanks so much. David, thanks for joining us fresh from the stage where you made big announcements about facebook messenger. Youre unveiling new bot tools and partnering with 28 companies to allow companies to more easily communicate with people on messager platform. Explain to me what are the future are chat bots and what does it mean for messengers business. Let me remind a little bit. Nowadays when you interact with businesses, you interact in a variety of ways, you can download an app and send them emails and interact in a variety of ways. All of these ways of interacting with businesses are not perfect. Downloading an app takes time and you need to sign up and push notifications and something we do less and less. Mobile web is less than idea. We believe bringing it all together in one thread in messenger to have a rich interaction model people think of bots as limited conversational experience but this enables everyone to have buttons and images and interacts with businesses and services in a wide variety of ways, youll receive your news inside messenger and Weather Forecast but also buy things, discover new experiences and interact with all of the brands and businesses you care about in a new much easier way. What makes you confident that companies are going to want to invest resources in putting things on messenger platform instead i have their own websites or apps . We have 900 million active on messenger, growing really fast. Messenger last year was the Fastest Growing app in the u. S. , theres reach. Thats number one. We bring the power of having 50 million businesses on one side of the platform using facebook pages and other 900 Million People i talked about. You have the great making of a new platform by enabling those two sides of the ecosystem to interact with one another, with brandnew tools that makes the life of people a lot easier every day. Kelly, you want to jump in here . David, im think being a lot about slack. We seem to hear about it so much these days and started obviously with Companies Using and now you can get a chat bot to order you taco bell. How much have they leapt ahead into a space that you guys are now catching up with to some extent or would you define what you do very differently . I think first of all, just to put things in context, if you want to build those new interactions right now, the biggest platform globally is messenger. You have 900 million on the platform and so if you as a business want to reach almost every single one of your customers, this is the place to be. And then the second thing to add, other platforms have built very simplistic bot experiences that are just text based, question answer type of interfaces. I dont know about you, but if theres a button with a word on it, i would rather tap on it than type the whole word. Most what to interact with services that way except a few geeks, theres a lot of us here at this conference. Better User Experience with buttons and images i demoed an experience from the shopping site spring that enables you to navigate recommended cureated list of product by swiping through a lot of products. Those are the types of experiences that people will resonate with and use every day. David, Bill Griffeth here, im a big facebook user, maybe too much of a facebook user. Right now interact with my friends and relatives and my colleagues but thats about it. So im curious, just what five years down the road or maybe wont even take that long. Two years, put this vision together for me and tell me how im going to use facebook down the road . Is it going to cost me anything . So, no, its not going to cost you anything unless you buy something from someone else than us that we facilitate. But the way we look at the world is that people spend most of their time today on smartphones messaging and since youre already using the product and its a natural conversational way, the way were built as human beings, we like to have conversations. You can then interact with the brands and businesses you like, like recently we announced we opened the ability for airlines to actually interact with flyers on messenger and that will enable you to have your whole itinerary right there and when its time for checkin, you get a notification and tap on a rich bubble and get your boarding pass right there. You can change flights without ever leaving the thread. What we believe, the future is going to be an amazing future where youre going to be able to have much simplified interactions with the products and brands you care about. Youre offering these tools to developers for free, Artificial Intelligence for free. Whats the future of how youll make money from this . Are you going to charge a fee to smeez developers or take a percentage cut from the retail sale snz. If you look at the history of facebook, traditionally weve enable the great interactions between the two sides of our network and businesses and people on the other side. And gradually then you can find new ways to monetize, we want to build great experiences for people into something really delightful in messenger. Then well have ways to monetize, one of the things were starting to do at a very small scale, enable some businesses to reengage existing customers with sponsored messages but doing it very carefully. Because it is a private personal space and we want to make sure we maintain a very high quality xpefrns for everyone. You also mentioned youll allow news field ads with different brands. What will we see it drive an increase in facebooks revenue . Were not in a hurry. Mark said it time and time again, we first want to build great User Experiences and get the platform to be at about a billion active users and were almost there. Then build montization gradually. To your point, news feed is potentially one of the best new Customer Acquisition platform in the world and so of course well use it to drive just awareness to enable people to find great bot experiences built on a messenger platform. We look forward to hearing more and trying them out ourselves. Thank you so much for joining us. Back over to you. David, thank you for joining us as well. Any moment now were waiting for House Speaker paul ryan to go before the cameras to apparently definitively lay at rest any notion that he would accept the nomination, the republican nomination for president. John harwood joins us now. You started this whole thing, john, in your speak easy. You asked him about it and he wasnt quite as definitive and been paying for it ever since. Thats true. Right after he was somewhat ee quif cal when i talked to him, john boehner was giving a speech in florida and saying my candidate is paul ryan if we have a contested convention. He then came out and gave a press conference, im not running, i wouldnt accept the nomination. But that hasnt quelled the speculation. Every time paul ryan as yesterday announced hes going to speak at a fundraiser, people say hes preparing for a campaign or he produces a video, promoting his agenda as speaker, people say thats a precampaign and aides decided this is too much of a distraction and they are going to try to knock it down. Ive got to say, that considering that we havent seen a multiballot convention in our lifetimes, if we actually get there, whatever he says today, all bets are off. In a way this seems like precisely the wrong move, it means you have National Coverage across all networks of a short statement meant to dismiss the statement it will probably just fuel . It could have that effect. What his aides have told me, hes going to be extremely declare tif and definitive in saying wont take it, not involved with it. If we get to this Chaotic Convention situation, who knows whats going to happen. The other think working against him, he said the same thing about the speakership when that came up, right . Every remembers that, he was a reluctant draftee and wanted to be the ways and means chairman and was the ways and means chairman. But then john boehner left and given the difficulty of leading that Republican Caucus, which you know, you take a look whats happened in the president ial race and you can see why its so difficult to lead that Republican Caucus in the house. And his colleagues said, please do it. Hes somebody with unique stat tour in that caucus. He was the Vice President ial nominee in 2012. And hes somebody who is admired across the spectrum of republican politics and so its pretty hard at a time when many republicans are despairing of their president ial race and dont like the top two candidates, they are naturally going to look to him it doesnt help him to look like hes positioning to get that nomination and so hes going to put it to rest today. Well see how successful this time is. Remind us how likely it now looks that well have some kind of outcome at the convention that involves several rounds of balloting, no clear frontrunner and the opportunity for somebody like paul ryan to burst to the floor. Its all guesswork at this point. Nobody knows, with that as the cave caveat, i would say its not likely we get there. I think donald trump who has got a 30point lead in new york and leads in pennsylvania and leads in maryland, the other big states coming up are sort of home cooking for him, home court advantage, i think the odds are still that donald trump will either get just over 1237, the delegates he needs or extremely close to it, close enough that hes going to get them when he gets to the convention. Now there are many republicans as you know in part of this never Trump Movement, stop Trum