Its sent the stock down. Well explain that further. And as Donald Trump Takes Center Stage as the Presumptive Republican nominee, how to trumpproof your portfolio. Lets start with the decline in oil prices. Jackie deangelus walks by. Were you going to tell us than . No. Its all despite news of the wildfires in canada and a big shakeup with the Saudi Arabian government. Its oil minister is being replaced adding more questions on whos in charge of the oil. Lets talk about what this means for the energy markets. Was this entirely unexpected . No. The mr. Everything deputy crown prince hes really been setting oil policy for some time. This was not unexpected. It was a little brutal the way he was dismissed by a royal decree. Hes kind of the alan green span of oil in saudi arabia almost frankly for the whole world and to see him the news didnt go out as he resigned and we all have to read between the t tea leaves as to what happened. It was pretty clear. He was kind of unceremoniously moved out. Why do you think that is . I think he was sacked in part because of what happened at the do ha meeting a few weeks ago. Nigh emeigh had said they were willing to sign on. Think he was trying to assert he was the energy policy. He was part of a previous era. He was king of an dobdullabdull minister. Now what . You say it doesnt necessarily mean a change in policy. He seems to have little use for the oil opec cartel. He seems fine with the environment. Hes very focused the big overall of the saudi economy, the privatization. I think hes basically saying look, were going to press ahead and say business as urinal. Saudi arabias really standing aside from the rest of the opec cartel right now. Even as theyre trying to take part of that company public, even as theyre trying to take part of their own stockmarket public. There are a lot of interesting reforms being pushed through and yet the perm naimi. The real question is, again, does he have the authority to set the policy. And one of the reasons that people think saudi policy has been eradicated is because of the deputy crown prince. The policy could swing quite wildly depending whan what he wants on a given day. Swinging today it is. Crudes down nearly 4 . Thank you so much. Now in edmonton. Deirdre, whats the latest . Reporter were outside of edmonton. There are so many questions from thousands of displaced residents as to when they can go home to Insurance Companies strieing to assess the damage. Remember, oil plays a huge part and ft. Mcmurray, which has been impacted, which much of it has been burned, structures have been burned. That has been hugely impacted. Today the weather is cooperating a little more. Here at the Evacuation CentersInsurance Companies are out in full force. The industry is deployed. Theyre active. Every Insurance Company has their own catastrophic response plan. Reporter while still so much is unknown at this point, one thing is known for certain. This is going to be the most costliest in canadas industry. Bank of montreal says insurance losses could cost 17 billion. Guys, that doesnt even take into account loss of the production which is estimated to be losing about 1 billion barrel as day per oil capacity. Thats something to keep in mind as we continue to see this. Back over to you guys. You know, that was one of the reasons. If we had come in and seen oil prices on the up, people would say, hey, it doesnt take a lot of supply at this point to try to push the Global Market to something off balanced but were not seeing that hold true today. Exactly. Its the same question we had last week, when they might be able to get this back online, but thats still very much in the air at this point in terms of production, right, deirdre . Reporter yeah. Thats right. Thats a bestcase scenario. Remember, this fire is still being called the beast here. It is still hugely unpredictable. The weather today is good. If it changes directions, it could change a lot of the oil sands facilities and that could prove to be disastrous for the industry. Deirdre bosa in edmonton. Thank you. Lets get to our Closing Bell Exchange as we kick things off. The dow is down five points right now. Ken more raf with Money Matters is here and jack more ruchian is in chicago and weve got peter costa from empire executions at post nine here. Peter, i always joke, when the market is like this, we didnt get much to the jobs market on friday, it feels like the market has since figured everything out. It knows what it needs to know and its sitting there. Whats going on there . I think its a little bit of that and i think theres a little bit of push and pull between biotech and between the Health Care Stocks which you can see, if you look at the dow, its down a little bit, but the s p is up a little. Nasdaq is pretty strong. Yeah. The nasdaq is doing very well. We have that going on. Plus you have the oil market and the equity market starting to dislodge a little bit. To me thats a positive. I think they give you a sense. Meanwhile, jack, we had them giving us a speech. We talked about how theyre too focused on fed policy. Interesting coming from one of the fed guys himself and hell be joining us shortly. Is he right and what changes that . Oh, kelly, he is 100 right. If nothing else, look at the past eight years of sub3 growth. With no fiscal stimulus is the answer, thats it. It does not work. What we have seen now its why the market has turned on fridays number. Prior though that they put on the economy deterioration spreds. Then all of saud when it came out and they had a number come out the other day and they thought were going to push off the fed rate hike, all of a sudden the bid came off. That tells you exactly what the market things. Ken more raf, youre Still Holding your bearish stance and its all about earnings. The fed doesnt matter right now . Well, you know, in just so that we clarify this, in 2014 and 15, im not just a bear. In august of last year we became bearish and i can explain the drop that happened in august. I can explain the drop that happened the year in january around february. I have a difficult time understanding why the market has risen as much as it has since then. We have half a percent gdp. The jobs numbers are terrible. We have the imf saying the Global Economy is slowing down. Corporate earnings are down for seven quarters in a row. I mean wheres the beef is what im asking on this. And the average bear market is a drop of 35 . If we have an average market, it puts at 11,500. Thats why were very cautious. Despite the rally weve had, i dont believe its real. I think this is a very dangerous place to be with this market. All right. Peter, any context youd add to that . Im on the other side of that coin. Even though we didnt have a great jobs report, unemployment or employment in this country is getting better. Wage growth is starting to happen. Its starting to excaccelerate little bit and thats going to show through by Consumer Spending. Once you see it picking up and legitimately have consistent growth in Consumer Spending the market is going to react to that and i think the market looks 3 to 6 months ahead and were going to see that as far as the summer period and going into the fall. Conversely, i think thats why the fed is going to react and raise rates at some point in the summer, early fall. Jark, listening to this, you were warning this could be a tough year for the market and it was definitely the first five or six weeks of the year until things turned around. Are you still concerned we could see much lower prices. Bill, this is a hedge in may. Theres absolutely no reason for me to be long on this market, and, bill kelly, youve heard me. I was bullish as can come. There are way too many headwinds right now. One thing is whether or not the new oil minister is a wartime counsse concillary. If thats the case, watch out. Youre going to see crude tumble. You know what . Quickly, with quickly. Go ahead, ken. We receive that poll stishians have been see daded by the Federal Reserve, relying on them to do everything. Theyre coming on the end of what they can do. Now were going to look to the poll stishians to save us. I have a feeling thats not going to end very well either. Youre leading us into our interview with Neel Kashkari in a few minutes. Thats what were going to talk about too. Thanks, guys. Appreciate it very much. We have a news alert on carl icahn. It may be telling that john harwood has that news alert. Whats going on, john . Its an interesting injection of carl icahn. Hes been mentioned often by donald trump as a treasury secretary. He was targeted by Bernie Sanders in Atlantic City who went off donald trump and carl icahn for failed casino projects that have caused job losses. And carl icahn has fired back against Bernie Sanders whos accused him and donald trump of greed and saying that they cant have it all in this country. Carl icahn said that Bernie Sanders was doing the bidding of a union that was profiting from the Health Insurance policies that the union ints sold to employees, but he also said that he agreed with Bernie Sanders that the income gap in this country is too large, its a big problem to be dealt with and he said owners in capital including ceos are ridiculously overpaid and thats a problem the United States needs to deal with. An interesting acknowledgment from that side that theyre raising, a come of them, significant and worth debating, guys. Actually weve heard that from donald trump too. He talked about raising taxes. Its the same kind of dialogue. Sort of. Donald trump has proposed a tax plan that deeply cuts taxes for the wealthiest americans by a very, very large amount, and he said over the weekend that some of those numbers are going to go up in his plan. Some people interpreted that as donald trump was proposing tax increase on the most affluent americans. He said thats not what hes proposing. He might end up in a negotiating deal. Thats goijs to ng to be a g deal though. Thank you, john. Its interesting to watch it migrate from our neck of the woods into that realm. We have 45 minutes to go. The nasdaq is up, adding 29 points on the back of some strength and bioteck. Very, very volatile sector. When we come back as we mentioned, minneapolis fed Neel Kashkari with why were too focused on the fed. And shares of lendingclub are crumb bling. Well have more on that coming up. Youre watching cnbc, first in business worldwide. Thats a lot of dishes no problem. Ill use a lot of detergent. Dish issues . Get cascade platinum. One pac cleans tough food better than 6 pacs of the bargain brand combined. Cascade. Man 1 i came as fast as i man 2 this isnt public yet. Man 1 what isnt . Man 2 weve been attacked. Man 1 the network . Man 2 shhhh. Man 1 when did this happen . Man 2 over the last six months. Man 1 how did we miss it . Man 2 we caught it, just not in time. Man 1 who . How . Man 2 not sure, probably offshore, foreign, pros. Man 1 what did they get . Man 2 what didnt they get. Man 1 i need to call mike. Man 2 dont use your phone. Its not just security, its defense. Bae systems. Welcome back. A couple of movers to tell you about. Teva pharmaceuticals up on an earnings beat. Teva reiterated its on track to complete its 4 45 billion acquisition and separately allergan and richter announced positive results. Meantime the Retail Investment trust is going to spin off its hcr manner care portfolio, specializing in nursing and assisted properties, kelly. He joins us now in an exclusive interview. Good to have you with us. Welcome. Welcome back. Thank you. Its great to be with you. I guess the key question goes right to the heart of your speech here and its everybody is so focused on the fed, and it sounds like youre saying they shouldnt be, but you can hardly blame them, right . Well, i understand. I think were having a slow summer. I want us all to step back and remind ourselves whether our children and grandchildren are better off than we are is really not going to be determined by what happens in june. Its what the executive branch and koj set. Thats what determines how competitive our work force is. We need to get those other tools moving. Monetary policy cant do it on its own. But you know that even in a busy summer, you dont get any policy decisions out of washington on fiscal policy. How long have we been talking about a Corporate Tax break, policies to help repatriate taxes overseas, a flat tax of some kind. None of that is happening, so it falls to the fed to be the only entity that can get anything done, and even now, lately, its in gridlock mode, too, right . I think the fed is doing whatever it can to get the economy moving. Obviously i said, i think its appropriate because were coming up short on both inflation and theyre still slack in the labor department. But importantly you look at whats happening on productivity. Economic growth is slow. That suggests productivity growth is slow. We dont fully understand why thats taking place, so my message is to the markets, to investors, and to the country, lets focus on these issues that can drive longterm performance. Its simply not going to be the fed. Neel, ive got an idea. Step down. Turn our attention elsewhere. Go to a startup or something. What would help productivity, do you know what i mean . What is it we all need to be doing in this environment . I think its look. Where is wall street focusing its analysis. Instead of having the 75th or 76th analysts, how about helping us understand is productivity growth slow because the new technologies arent that remarkable as some suggest or is it a mismeasurement of whats happening . Maybe productivity is better than we think. Theres a lot of brain power going on. Im suggesting that brain power could be more productively targetted at oeconomic issues to help the country moving forward, at least understand what direction theyre going. If were focusing on the fomc, i think were focussing on a Bigger Picture. Point well taken. You know why theyre focusing so much on the fed and the data is because the fed set the expectation up. They say theyre a data driven entity and theyve given us the metric to watch for in terms of the job growth, in terms of inflation and Economic Growth. Stan druckenmiller said in his view this is the least datadriven fed hes ever seen because those metric have been met at various times, not all at once and the fed just holds still, you know, even at this point. What do you say to that . Well, but i just say look at where we are on inflation wrrks we are in the job market. The fact is Labor Force Participation is creeping back up notwithstanding fridays data. That suggests to me that theres still some slack in the labor force and if we could bring people back in, we should absolutely do that. But, again, other things like productivity is one big area where we need to do a lot more work to understand that. And, you know, we used to all begrudge Quarterly Earnings because its forced them to be focused the near term benchmarks. Were data dependent. If were not careful, were going to be so focused on the near term data releases were not going to look at whether or country is better off 10, 20, 30 years from now. Were already there. Face it. Were all focused this data. Are you ever going have a moment when all arrows are focussed in the same direction, when you hit all metric at the same time . Is that what were waiting for here . I dont think you have to see all of the metric. Whether were at maximum employment, my judgment is were not quite there yet. Remember, the 2 is not a ceiling. Its a target. We can tolerate it both above and below. Right now were coming up short on both of those and so i dont see mr. Druckenmillers argument that the data has been flashing in a certain direction. I know were data dependent. Were watching it. We want to do the right thing for our dual mandate. I dont want them to lose sight of the Bigger Picture. The Bigger Picture is a bigger fed. Are you going raise rates in june, neel, or not . Lets talk about what markets want to know here. I know. Ive also said as an foc participant, personally i dont want to get into the business which month were going to raise or how many times were going to raise. I dont see a benefit to the markets saying its going to be one, two, three, and four, and when its going to be. We all need to react to the data. Whenever possible, im going to try to push people to think about the long term rather than just the next meeting. By the way, i think the bank of england is just cutting in half its number of meetings a year. Do you think you guys would do Something Like that. I dont know. I havent talked about it with any of my colleagues. Ive only been in it four or five months. Im just reacting. Im asking is it healthy theres an obsession. I think it could be better used elsewhere. Just one more question because id love to know your point of view on this broadly, neel. Is the cycle turning . Weve had a number of startups. We had the deceleration on job growth on friday and people have a sense already of markets being fully valued. What is your read on conditions . Is the cycle turning and turning lower here . You know, doing know. As we know, we get so much data every day and it usually points in certain directions. Im certainly not forecasting a recession this year. As you know, given all the data, were notoriously bad at predicting these things. Theres always the possibility. It doesnt strike me the odds are any higher than i were six years ago or nine years ago but we have to Pay Attention and watch. Before we go, we lied. Because youre a fed official, what do you think . June or september . What does the data suggest at this point . When the data allows. All right. Again, i just dont think its productive. So thats why im not going to i know youve only been on the job a c