Transcripts For CNBC Closing Bell 20160630 : vimarsana.com

CNBC Closing Bell June 30, 2016

The dow and s p essentially erased about 80 of the losses incured after the brexit vote of last thursday when the uk voted to leave the eu and bank of England Governor Mark carney hinted that more stimulus is coming. Listen. In my view, and im not prejudging the views of other independent members of the mpc, the Economic Outlook deteriorated and some Monetary Policy easing will likely be required over the summer. What selloff . A little quantitative cant take care of. Just wipe it all away with easy money. Hershey rejecting the 23 bid and hershey shares are still higher. The market seems to think mondelez comes back with another offer. Trading above where it was before they rejected the offer. Netflix known for keeping the ratings under wraps and nielsen says it has numbers for some of the streaming services most popular shows, including season premier of orange is the new black. Those details coming up. Hef hertz signed new deals with uber and lyft. The stock is down more than 20 this year. Well examine whether or not its a good strategy. Tech stocks are rallying today. Its been one of the losers in the first half of the year. Bertha coombs with a closer look at that part of the story from the Nasdaq Market site for us. Bertha . Thanks, bill. The nasdaq is on pace for its first back to back quarterly losses in about five years. And really, its nothing to do with this weeks brexit plunge and recovered from that. The real story has been the breakdown of the big cap tech sector. Small caps are actually up for the quarter and year to date. But the big caps and, of course, when you talk about that, you have to talk about the biggest. Apple. Just didnt recover from disappointing earnings reports this quarter. Really the first half. Apple technically broken. Now down three of the last four quarters and not alone. Microsoft, off 8 year to date. Google down 10 . Intel and netflix, one of the fang stocks, down 20 year to date combining for a biggest point drag on the naz gak 100 in the first two quarters of this year. The chip sector has been the one big exception. Philadelphia Semiconductor Index looking technically stronger and 4 from a new high. But as for the nasdaq composite itself, well, as it goes in the first half, how does it do in the second . This is the fifth time ever the index started the year with two down consecutive quarters. In 2002, it was off 31 . The end of the year. Three of the last four times ended the year lower. First time in 1982 did it recover. Michelle . All right. Something to watch for the rest of the year. Thanks, bertha. After todays close, we will have officially completed the first half of the trading year. Mike santeli with more on the themes for the rest of the year. Mike . Yeah, hey, michelle. Some of the obvious stuff, massive rebound in the oil market and finishing up in the s p 500 and heres themes that did animate the first half. Uss a safe haven and flat for the s p 500, the average stock up 3. 2 . Also, way out performing every other equity market index in the world. The lust for yield. We talk about this. That compression in global bond yields, in demand right now. The dividend sen trick stocks massive outperformers. People think theyre too expensive and where people are going for that scarce income. Heres another theme. Main street over wall street. We have seen this trend since really the middle of last year and wages growing much more quickly and corporate profits on the down swing. I think that probably continues even if profits stabilize. For the second half, is the fed really sidelined . I think theres a comfortable consensus. People think the fed isnt able to move to raise rates any time soon and perhaps not this year or next year and wait for the jobs number next week and Inflation Numbers at the target. That could be something to watch. Bank stocks jerked around by expectations for the fed. Business investment revival. A missing piece and the market story industrial stocks really should depend on a rotation into more Capital Spending and then late cycle storms. Late in the economic and market cycle. Typically volatility will pick up as you get there and people get twitchy about whether we have a lot more to ask of this cycle. Of course, this is seven years into a recovery. No saying exactly how long it can go and people on alert for the signs that maybe its closer to the end. All right. Mike, good stuff. A lot to think about there as we go into the second half there. Lets talk about the closing bell exchange. Susan fulton with us. Jonathan korpina here at New York Stock Exchange and Rick Santelli getting over the carney announcement. He is in chicago with. To talk about that. Well talk about that in a moment here. John, first to you and today, whats motivating the market higher here . I hear about these pensions that are doing some trading here. We have got the end of the quarter, the end of the first half of the year. Whats going on . A combination of a few things here bill. The end of the month, end of the quarter, end of the half year. We have Pension Funds money looking to come into the market. By the end of the day today and then see that normal window dressing activity and the way the market traded, volatility, theres Short Covering here. I think the short traders were not expecting this market to continue this rally. Yes, we did get a bounce after the two down days. But to see this consecutively happening now, i think the short covers have come back to this market and dont want the positions right now. If you missed all the news thats happened in the last four days and you opened up a newspaper today, you would think nothing has happened to this market because the numbers are exactly back to where they were. That is amazing. I know. I was looking at the European Market performance over six months, shocked to see what is the best performing European Market of the majors over six months . Surprise london. The ftse is in positive territory. Germany sold off hard. France, italy is just horrific. I mean, look at these moves. Of course you want to leave the European Union right now. Absolutely. Susan, is there anything more important in this market right now as a factor thats driving Asset Allocation than all of those negative yields . Mike santoli highlighted that lust for yield with trillions yielding negative in the bond market. I mean, utilities up as much as they do makes sense. I dont think theres anything bigger than the yield market. I dont think theres anything bigger. With britain saying it will probably lower rates, losing its aaa status in terms of its bonds, you know, i dont think theres anything bigger. We have been saying for a year now, year and a half, that we dont see Interest Rates going up until 2017 at the earliest. Interestingly enough, it is not an economic decision. It is a demographic decision. The world is getting older and were not we pairing for it. Yeah. I mean, were looking at the chart of the best and worst performing sectors. We have been having this running joke. I will ask a money manager if they would invest in utilities, thats too boring. Anything but. Yeah, yeah. Second best performing sector this year. Hold on. We have breaking news. On the st. Louis fed president bullard with negative yields. Not all that enlightening making the comments earlier. As a matter of fact, on june 17th. And i read through the whole report. Basically word for word. He is sticking with and repeating the new Monetary Policy framework that the st. Louis fed adopted on june 17th. It is very interesting because he refers to new regimes. Economic regimes that basically he wants to put in place at the st. Louis fed. For a long run outcome for the u. S. Economy. And basically theres no reason to forecast any sort of recession given the current data. Also forecasting one rate hike which was detailed earlier, as well. Single rate hike for the foreseeable future. Repeating the new Monetary Policy framework and put it in place before the brexit vote. Hes sticking with 2 growth. 4. 7 unemployment rate. 2 mean inflation. And fed funds rate basically we are going to see one hike. Thats what hes detailing in london. We were wondering to get the old hawkish bullard or dovish. Thats exactly right, lower for longer. Thanks very much. Rick, couple that with i could hear it when it happened, i could hear you slapping your forehead and mark carney said to probably reduce rates this summer sometime. Stocks sold off, rick. They need lower rates. They have to do something. Obviously. I mean, the world is watching. Uk rates are obviously too high i mean, the fact that they broke 40 or 50 basis points or with the relationship to the boon changed 40 or 50 basis points. You know, some on the floor said maybe he wanted the currency lower. Give him a shovel. He can dig a hole to make it lower. I mean, come on i dont understand. Listen. You know me. Ive thrown out compliments to the current fed like i throw around chicago manhole covers, okay . Ill say ive heard very little out of our fed. I think thats a wonderful idea. I think if you want to call brexit a crisis, many experts that were wrong did and whatever you call it the market is dealt with just fine. This micromanagement and ben willis said it best. He talked about the qualifications of those making these decisions but, yeah, i dont know where you draw the line. You know, once again, lets keep it simple, people. Brexit is a call that you cant lead the world by the nose and think you know everything just because youre a leader. And i think that isnt only true for government, true for all the sub agencies like the central banks. But theyre going to keep playing. Okay . And just like brexit, theyre going to ignore the signals until the reins are taken away. I would continue to monitor, for example, italian banks. One thing lost yesterday with the eu summit is that Prime Minister renzi tried to get merkel in germany to bail out this bank. Okay . Even though they have a bailout fund. We are in a crisis. This is time i want the eu and brussels to bail it out. She told them, no. But their Banking System down close to 60 now. Those are the things to watch to really make a difference in the market. Horrific. Yeah. The moves in the italian banks have been. We wondered what they protended. I think you have to keep in mind were almost back to where we were before the brexit vote shock and also been at 2100 in the s p. Almost there. We have been there dozens of times. Have not been able to make headway above it and another challenge going into a new month, new quarter. Well see if theres more fuel in the tank after today. All right. Everybody, thank you. Appreciate your thoughts on todays market. Good to see you. Take care. Thanks. We have about 48 minutes left in the trading session here to finish out the month, the quarter and the first half of the year itemizing. Dow up 202 right now. Sweet deal in the works getting gummed up. We need a lot of candy metaphors for this one. Hersheys board rejecting a takeover offer. David faber will have the developments next. A senior netflix executives says the video streaming giant is looking into the chinese market. A leading analyst will tell us what a chinese entry could do for Netflix Subscriber base and the companys stock. Thats coming up. 45 minutes left or thereabouts. In the day, in the month, in the quarter. Et cetera, et cetera. Dow was up 221 at the peak. Up 122 right now. This is like a merger monday. Merger thursday. Lionsgate buying starz. That deal follows months of talks. Media mogul john malone has interest in both companies. Good for you, dr. Malone. Speaking of deals, proposed blockbuster candy deal hitting a road dsz block. Hersheys board rejecting the offer of mondelez. David faber has the details. David . This is just getting good here. Moved very quickly today, of course. Dow jones breaking the story earlier today and then details of the 107 a share half stock, half cash deal. That offer delivered last week was promptly rejected by hersheys board just about a half hour, 40 minutes ago in a press release in which it said that not only did it reject it after talking to its Financial Advisers and bankers, lawyers, but that also, it does not provide the basis for further discussion between mondelez and hershey and seemingly did nothing to dissuade them from sending the stock higher for a long halt for news pending from hershey. Now trading right near the highs of the day. Why . Well, the expectation, of course, the rejection was based on price and therefore that theyll continue coming back with a higher price for attention and allow for further discussion. And, well, perhaps the idea of somebody else out there although that always remains somewhat unclear. We didnt get to the trust. You know, it is interesting. I spent a lot of this day reporting on the Hershey Trust and controls 80 of the vote as hershey and you have to get the approval of the trust. As i reported earlier, they were willing to say, well change the name of the company to hershey. Move the headquarters of the business to pennsylvania. Hershey, pennsylvania. And well maintain the manufacturing jobs in that state. All of that designed to get the approval of the trust. The problem is first you have to get the approval of the board of directors of the company. The rejection today is the people running the company. Correct. Different than the trust of the board of the trust. That is right. There are some overlaps in directorship and people who sit on the trust board, remember, the trust started by Milton Hershey many years ago to take care of disadvantaged children. Enormous. 34 ownership it has in hershey. And they first have to hear from the board so in this case its interesting to note in the press release they talk about, well, we received input of management, the board of directors, from outside financial and legal advisers, they dont say advice from the trust itself. Thats the next step. So if youre trying to get a deal done, you have to have a deal with the board and unable to do and then move on to the trust. Who else is out there . In Emergency Rooms of what . What might bid for hershey . Yeah. Nestle. Nestle is a name you certainly hear and private companies or family controlled companies. Faro. Nestle, by the way, has a deal to license kitkat to hershey in the United States and important part of the business and values that business at 3 billion. Its a great candy bar. Youd have to imagine if nestle makes a bid, by if way, theyre in health and wellness right now, down that path and if they were to make a bid, 3 billion away and getting that business back if hershey changes control. Mondelez is trading higher. Normally a deal announced or potential deal, the acquiring company goes down. Unless you think, god, this is super or Something Else going on and worthy of noting, no . It is. What you showed earlier, lionsgate down because people worried about the price theyre paying in the deal and can be the case, michelle. Here i think the stock is up in part because people like the idea of it. Global behemoth in the chocolate business. But you have to also consider the idea that mondelez sent out word to those who might have interest in buying them that you better move if you have any interest an im not saying there is but move now because we might get a lot bigger and wont be able to buy us down the road. Interesting. I have a feeling to hear from you in the not too distapt future. So interesting w. That weird trust structure. Super interesting. Ill have a milky way bar after all this talk. You do that. Do research. Thats mars. Yeah. Sorry. No idea. Its all chocolate to me. All good. 40 moneys left in the trading session here. Dow jones higher. Nasdaq higher by almost 48. Netflix lurking around chinas doorstep. A leading analyst will weigh in. Look at the risks and rewards that netflix could face entering the market and boasts several home grown streaming services of its own coming up next here. Later, yuri milner spoke exclusively with kelly evans about quest investment. The search for alien life. Thats cool. Dont move. Netflix continues to make a push into china, even though that companys struggles to break into other asian markets. South korea is a good example. Tuna amobi joins us. Its a great market, great opportunities, but the structure over there, the political structure and the economic structure are huge impediments in some cases, arent they . Thats right. Its an attractive market but the conundrum doesnt go away overnight. Media Companies Understand that china has unique challenges and attractive market so for netflix i think probably going to be a marathon, not a sprint. This is a market that requires a lot of patience and overtime i think the upside is quite tremendous. Does the stock move if theres an amazement and going to do this . Does it move lower considering how much trouble companies had going into china . I think they have demonstrated track record of launching successfully in several international markets. You know . Granted china has unique challenges. We expect an announcement from the company in the second half of this year in terms of their specific strategy to enter china. We expect them to be more open minded. But the chinese streaming market is more competitive so i think that for netflix they understand the challenges and by the way was smart of them to leave china last for their rollout so wed be very patient here and dont expect it should affect their global profitability for next year. You anticipated my next question. Sometimes companies have a to do a joint venture with a Chinese Company to gain entree. Whos over there . What kind of competition do they face . Not just from the internet giant that is you know. But theres a host of, you know, local players that are very, very, you know, strong competitors in china and i think china has unique challenges, broadband speeds are not as high as here in the United States. And i think the market is a little bit more, you know, fragmented. Having said that, you know, i do believe that theyre moving in the right direction and if netflix is very smart

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