Transcripts For CNBC Closing Bell 20160930 : vimarsana.com

CNBC Closing Bell September 30, 2016

Happening. Best Performance Today for Deutsche Bank since 2011. Best in five years. Meanwhile hijacking security cameras and other socalled smart devices. We got the details on several internet attacks own the fallout for the internet of things, one of the hottest trends in technology right now. But it may have a very bad achilles heel which well discuss. Nutanix can become a household name. Could it be the best performing ipo of the year. Its up 124 adding almost 20 to trade above 35 as we head into the close and see if this paves the way for more ipos to come. Somebody left an awful lot of money on the table with that ipo. Lets start with this rally. Bob pisani has that story. Im in a good mood because the quarter is ending on a decent note overall. Take a look at the s p 500. S p is up 3. 5 . We had a rally after brexit after a couple days of drops. The only drop we saw was the comments a few weeks ago where he thought it was a good typical to raise rates. We bounced back after that here. Big tech was the big winner. Look at the sector winners. Semiconductor. All those stocks up double digits. Steel stocks had a good quarter. Expiration production, oil and garks e and p companies had good quarter. Even banks did despite concerns about continuing low Interest Rates. Who was the loser . Gold miners after being winners all throughout the year sold off late in the quarter. Traders loved the Fourth Quarter. Why do they . Historically the numbers are good. Were heading into another strong period of the year. So s p is up 81 of the time in the Fourth Quarter. Since 1990. Look at the s p 500 up 4. 5 on average, Consumer Staples and health care all doing well. Finally what will move the markets in q4. Two big volatility triggers. First the election and particularly the possibility of a Trump Victory. Right now the markets seem fixed on the idea that clinton wins and house remains republican but if trump wins that will certainly be more volatility. The other is that December Fomc meeting. Remember we were positioned for volatility from the fomc meeting this september and that didnt happen either. So a lot of betts on volatility have not paid off so far this year. Guys, back to you. Deutsche Bank Uncertainty weighing on investors. American depository receipts rebounding from yesterdays all time lows. They are up 15 . Wilfred frost has whats been driving that move and Michelle Carusocabrera looks at whether Deutsche Bank could be the next lehman brothers. That was the fear yesterday. So what has driven that rebound . First and foremost because overnight many analysts highlighted how strong deutsches Liquidity Position is. They have much more cash to meet any short term calls. The conversation this morning thus moved on forks cussed on the true reason shares are down so sharply this year and thats capital concerns. And today weve had a story of potential major relief in that area, rumors that the doj is ready to settle its outstanding fine with deutsche soon and at a lower number than fear. Now every Single Source ive tried to confirm this with at the bank, at the doj, in the financial world has not been able to confirm it. So it is just a rumor. But what i will say is this. The stress that Deutsche Bank has caused globally in the last month, week and few days, and the way the market has bought the rumor today of a settlement will only increase the pressure on both Deutsche Bank and doj to find a quick settlement. So i conclude like this. 5. 4 billion itself is not the number but the timeline for settlement is shorter than it was a few days ago. Stay there. Well talk about it more in just a moment. More on those liquidity concerns that had some wondering whether Deutsche Bank could be the next lehman brothers. Michelle carusocabrera, there are plenty of people who feel those fears were unwarranted. Absolutely right. Deutsche bank is no lehman brothers. Its a much bigger bank. And it is a much more diversified bank. There are two key things about it. Its got a lot more cash than lehman or bear ever did and it also has the backing of the central bank, the ecb, and lehman did not have those. So just like will said at the top, liquidity, worrying about funding, would it survive through night. You dont have to worry about that with Deutsche Bank because it has a backstop and they have two months worth of funding. Remember back during lehman and bear we were talk about one nights worth of funding. So thats significantly different. Instead were waiting to see just how much capital Deutsche Bank might have to raise and that all depends on the size of the fine that the doj is going to bring. If its a very big fine it raises the chance that they will have to raise more capital sooner. That could hurt shareholders a lot or a little depending on what size it is. If its really huge, you know, the numbers are unknowable at this point but still when you do an analysis of the Balance Sheet its not considered to be something thats going to lead to a full collapse of the bank by any stretch of the imagination. Even using all these words a lot analysts would say its just absolutely crazy. This is nowhere near comparable to what a lehman or a bear was. Would you compare to it a monte depache. No that was small and not systemic. Deutsche bank is systemic. Monte has similar issues but we dont spend day in and day out about it and wont move the u. S. Markets very much. Deutsche bank is systemic and thats why we talk so much more about it. We were talking yesterday how the Deutsche Bank story is not one of liquidity its one of profitability and they struggled at that bank. They are truly a bank thats suffering from the Monetary Policy that weve seen globally because of the lack of an Interest Rate spread here. Absolutely, bill. I think todays share price move of 15 needs to be put into perspective. This is a rebound after 6 fall yesterday and a 15 fall yeartodate. Were not by any means saying this bank is back to rip roaring profitability. Just perhaps the capital, the need for capital wont be quite as bad as predicted. Low Interest Rate absolutely the real killer for that profitability this year. But also that aspect of slightly slipping market share. Thats not a big issue for the prime brokerage business as we feared yesterday but in the crucial area of their prime brokerage the fixed interest part their market share has slipped 12 to 10. 5 roughly over the last six months. Thats something to watch Going Forward over the next six to 12 months but not something to fear. What about a ratings downgrade . The kinds of things at that time whether its hedge funds pulling capital or deutsche having a lower rating and having to post more margin those things could exacerbate its liquidity, right . It could. Clearly they have suffered some of those areas over the last 12 to 18 months anyway. I think all of this does add for an impetus to get a deal with the doj, and we dont know what the doj is thinking, but one can only presume that they dont want to be reason to bring down a major nations bank and that will add on them and the deutsche side to get to a deal quite soon. I do think its interesting that the market has moved on. Were very much focused on capital today the issue thats making the bank rally is potential improvement on that capital situation. Yesterdays issue was something about liquidity. And the market has moved on from that concern. Michele i was going ask you what you thought. How this will affect the negotiations with the doj as they try to couple with a number. Whether its that 14 billion or something much lower, bearing in mind the fragile condition or at least the perceived fragile condition that Deutsche Bank seems to be in right now. So a couple of things to consider. A lot of people remember the negotiation with bp. That was related to violating sanctions. Thats a different set of circumstances right. A lot of people, a lot of banks were involved in the mortgage situation lets call it and while you may want to make being stupid, you know, illegal its not at this point. A lot of banks did it so theres probably leeway to say it can come down. Additionally does the u. S. Government want to be the one that does something to a german bank as long as it is and cause havoc in the european economy . Unlikely. They will work on some kind of number that would be smaller. Maybe they are trying to calculate how much can we punish them for this without causing so much stress in the rest of the world. All right. Thanks, folks. See you guys later. Thank you. Lets get our Closing Bell Exchange for the last trading day of the quarte so, john, lets see the dow going into the day up 5. 25 . S p up 6. 25 . Same thing for the nasdaq. Not too bad of a quarter. Not too bad. People should be happy with the results. This is a conversation weve had over time what Market Participants do at the end of the month and quarter. We knew there would be window dressing coming into this week. The Deutsche Bank headlines threw things off a little bit. Once we get through this week, next week we got a pretty good Economic Calendar thats there. The jobs numbers come back into play and then just going punt right down the road. Next thing is election and then fomc. I think getting into this last quarter historically october has been a rocky month and it may be rocky but i think the bigger headlines that are out there will help support this market and continue to move higher. Another week or so we start earning season and that will help. How are you guys seeing this Deutsche Bank issue play out . You know the weakest part of europe has been the financials. They are down about 12 yeartodate. European equity markets have been flat in 2016. But in the Third Quarter, european stocks are actually up 7 . European small caps up 10 . We see a little bit of a turning of the corner in europe. They are getting faster gdp growth in the eurozone than were getting in the United States right now. Were starting to see a pick up in earnings per share growth among european small caps. To us thats very encouraging. Big investors should look outside of the United States as they think about rebalancing back at the end of the year. Rick, another quarter, still no rate increase by the fed in this time. Long yields down. The dollar index down 3. 25 . In that time what your guys talking about as we head into the final quarter of the year . Well, i think they are continuing to look towards the markets to reflect some of the positives that are associated with the easy money that continues. Most traders on this floor think the only impediment to a solid performance by the stock market would be the potential for the fed to enter into the game. Theyve talked quite extensively about something confusing them. That is look at the federal reserve. What was one of the reasons why they didnt raise in july . It was brexit, was it not, bill . That would be one of the reasons. So you have the department of justice throwing a fine that eats up most of the capitalization of Deutsche Bank not even considering the implications of the globe there. So it seems rather illogical along with the other big conversation. Lets face it, Deutsche Bank was big this week. The notion that just because they are not going to be going belly up, just because they have, you know, the 12. 5 set aside versus 7. 25 of lehman everything is fine they can make it for how many months. Whats really changed . Okay. Do they have a profitable outlook on the future . Will they Grow Business or are p. M. Going to continue to look at the risks on the customer side, on the prime brokerage side. This is what happens every time we have an issue. Real reform . No. Were sweeping it under the rug. Bit the big picture whether its italy, postuk, postbrexit uk this is what traders are looking at. Its a tough business for them because they are not trading what they are worried about. They are basically trading other things and it shows the constant list of incongrew endcies that seem to follow the mark. Bringing it back home you mentioned you think investors should look outside of this country. What sectors see most interest. Sounds counter intuitive i like japan. Japan is starting to turn the corner in the Third Quarter. I think to make any kind of call on emerging markets you have to know when the election is. I think Trump Victory would be bad in the short term for em but the key next year is what happens on fiscal policy. What does paul ryan pass and what can he pass. 2174 on the s p. What kind of parameters are you looking at . Were stuck back at these levels that we were back in the summer time. 2150 on the bottom, 2185 on the top. Every time we step outside of that it seems to come right back in. I continue to look at that. Once we get to the upside we feed some conviction to stay outside of 2185. Gentlemen, thank you. Have a good weekend. Appreciate your thoughts. 45 minutes to go. Were seeing a broad base rally, rebound is more appropriate. Mirror image of what we saw yesterday. 200 point down. S p is up 23 naends is up 55. Main street gut check. Two investors tell us if European Bank worries and the president ial election are keeping them away from these markets. Thats coming up in just a moment. Up next an army of cameras and dvrs, digital video recorders have been hacked to launch internet attacks. What you can do to protect yourself. Youre watching cnbc first in business word wide. Upgrade your phone system and learn how you could save at vonage. Com business narrator kubo est place come on, this way. E. Narrator . Is in the forest. Kubo wow. Narrator so grab your loved ones monkey dont even. Narrator and explore a world of possibilities. Kubo its beautiful. Narrator visit discovertheforest. Org to find the closest forest or park to you. A rally day for be the markets to finish up the Third Quarter as we head towards the Fourth Quarter. Look at the dow, the heat map. All 30 stocks in the dow are in the green today. Walmart among the gainers. I saw it at the top of the group. Guggenheim securities. Guggenheim believes in walmarts fulfillment centers. Key bank says Walmart Store experience and e commerce expenditures will help drive sustainable market share gains. The nasdaq is getting ready to lock in a solid quarter itself. Bertha coombs has a look at some of the stand outs. Just tremendous three months of gains here for the nasdaq. September sensational up 2 while the s p and the dow are flat for the month. And its really been powered by technology. The nasdaq right now son pace to have its best quarter gains since 2013. 2013. And its really been led by big cap tech in particular the chip sector. Take a look at the chip index ending the month here on a new high, a 16 year high with four straight quarters of gains, a lot of that coming because of chatter about consolidation in this space. Qualcomm wants to pay about 30 billion might pay more as it hit a new high today. Then, of course, the really big mega caps. Apples resurgence this quarter that has really helped propel things and while a couple of years ago we talked about than, its amazon, apple, facebook, microsoft those four led to major gains here in the nasdaq this quarter and they are all firing on all systems with facebook and amazon putting in historic highs this quarter and all of them up double digits for the quarter. So its really been quite a powerful technology rally here. Back to you. Okay, bertha, thanks. So heres Something Else to help you sleep well at night. As if email hacking wasnt scary enough now hackers are infiltrating everything from security cameras to dvrs all of those internet of things things. A record breaking distributed denial of service or ddos hit was delivered by more than 145,000 cameras, essentially the attackers flooded the bandwidth of the targeted system and several websites including Cyber Security blog went dark as a result. Pulls into question the vulnerability of internet like smart home gadgets. Joining us now president of computer and Network Security company. Welcome. Thanks for having me. What was your reaction to this news . Did you know that dvrs were so readily hackable . Yeah. Absolutely. These internet of things device, dvrs, cameras, phones, refrigerator, toasters, all these type of internet type devices are actually computers. Unlike traditional computers these things are developed and produced for pocket change. So theres really a limited amount of security functionality that comes with them. Why arent they more secure . Well as i said, they are really being produced for pocket change. I understand. If they are so readily accessible to hackers why arent they more secure. At the foundation its because people dont think of them and corporations dont think of these devices as Computer Systems when, in fact, they are. So frequently hackers are thinking of them that way. Absolutely. Thats why were seeing events as weve seen this week unfold where really its an opening of pandoras box where the devices in your physical environment can be used to generate attacks into your technology environment. By the way it works vice versa. People can use computers from far away systems to attack your internet of things device. The locks on your doors. Your hbc and air conditioning system. Your refrigeration systems. Can d

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