With the republican gop lawmakers in attendance, those from the house, bringing you that live from the rose guardar in 30 minutes. Hey, is there going to be a rally . What about a selloff . Well, by the way, theres this story about whats happening in oil today. Prices there, in crude, a fivemonth low. Theres talk about a glut, concerns about it, and its enough to send the price of crude oil less than 5 today, below 46 a barrel, and that has a lot to do with what youre seeing here. Going through support levels, 48, 47, 46. Much support. Not today. Concerns about cord cutting and the ad market. Crushing media stocks this week, but will cvs earnings after the bell change the tide . Looking at that coming up sometime in the next couple hours here when we can get to it. We have a lot of plates spinning in the air today. We begin with the full Team Coverage of the Health Care Bill there on capitol hill, and joining us with analysis, dan cliffton, and give us the hit, runs, and errors first. Reporter bill, the bill passed was a compromise between conservatives who felt the original American Health care act did not do enough to fully repeal obamacare and moderates who worried that too many people would be left without insurance coverage. Heres the rundown of what passed. It kept many of the original provisions of the American Health care act, including moving from insurer subsidies based on income to tax credits based on age and capped for those who are wealthy. The bill also removed the individual mandate that required people to carry insurance and replaces it by allowing insurers to charge people higher premiums if they have a lapse in coverage. The bill also changes the medicaid funding formula to a per capita system with a cap on overall payments. Now, the amendments that finally got these republican lawmakers to a yes from the conservative Freedom Caucus, there was an amendment that allowed states to opt out of providing essential health benefits. For the moderates, it was the mcarthur amendment, and that allocated 8 billion over five years into a federal fund that would help keep what was sp preexisting conditions afford coverage thing to remember, dont get wedded to the changes or anything in the bill because its got to go through the senate, and Senate Majority leader mcconnell warns you can expect to see some big changes in it. Bill . Thank you. Stay there. Dan cliffton from strategics research and capital street. Dan, so, first of all, are you surprised they got it passed this afternoon . You know, it felt, kelly, a lot like the movie weekend at bernies. Is it dead . Is it dead . Carrying it arented last month or so, but the white house was so insistent on getting it done, the house needed it done, even pass it to make it senates problem for a while, they were determined to do it, than dey d it, and investors Pay Attention. The press conference at the white house is designed to pressure the senate to get movement on the bill, even if it is different than the house bill. The original bill, the repeal bill, according to the cbo, meant, the 24 million americans would lose their coverage. Are we able to tell at all based on the new bill with the amendments and everything, how that might change . I mean, we have to wait for cbos scoring, but are you able to just blue sky the thing . Well, theres no cbo score, as you point out, so its interesting to me that members take a vote on a bill without a score. Agree. 24 million over ten years, most from medicaid, i cant imagine the cbo score we get in a couple weeks gets better from a coverage perspective, but that it actually gets worse from a deficit perspective, so theres that to keep in mind, and then youve got tough sledding in the senate. The senate has a number of members from states who expanded medicaid. Youll see amendments to improve the medicaid per capita cap policy, and then you got the tax credits, making those more generous for those with low income, so big changes coming, and its tough flooding in the senate. And, ylan, its telling. You mentioned that the majority leader of the senate said they will wait for the cbo scoring before they proceed with the version of the bill here. I think they are waiting to find out exactly how many people are affected by this thing, right . Thats a big point of contenti contention, a big point here in the house. Im told that the Senate Majority leader has started trying to come to some con sen tus in the republican caucus, has working groups between conservatives and moderates. Those to look for, ted cruz, mike lee, Pay Attention to them because they are oning originally against the ahca and worried it did not do enough. They could cause pickups, pr perha perhaps, tlohroughout the proce as pell. Dan, as we figure out how it proceeds, we have to figure out what it means for everybody. Today, what happens under this bill . Yeah, look, one, i think theres a lot of misinformation about what who loses coverage, you know, there are clearly going to be changes in medicaid where that formulas less generous. Thats a trillion of cutting of federal Health Care Spending overall. The high risk pools, i think, are critical. They have a spotty record, being able to pay for people who have preexisting k ining conditions, the bill despite what the rhetoric say. The republicans try to find Health Care Coverage more efficientlily. Theres going to be fewer people who will be in charge, but i think people who are sick and who need insurance, they are still going to be subsidies there for those people. I mean, the easy answer to say is it benefits the Insurance Companies but huts the hospitals. Is that the case, do you think . I think as far as winners and losers, youve got insurers helped, mainly because of the Health Insurance fee, industry fee goes away. Companies like humana, hospitals agree. Hospitals with uncompensated care and bad debt, thats a problem for them, this new plan. And other providers. Just joining us, by the way, right side there is outside the white house in the rose garden preparing for a celebration moment with the president. Those are all gop house members who are getting ready for what looks like either to sing the hallelujah chorus like a wedding reception. Or a class photo. Guys, i just the president will comment. Ylan. I want to point out house lawmakers are on recess starting this evening, so the response they get in their district to the vote, how they see their constituents responding to it will be really important Going Forward for the senate. Senate republicans see that House Republicans have had a welcomed reception back home, con stitch wents are happy, got it done, they were able to govern, thats starting to change dynamics Going Forward. Absolutely. Dan, you know, going back to what you said, you know, trying to figure out how the plan would still cover preexisting conditions was a sticking point, involving some of the last h minute amendments here. Theres another piece, too, that other people were worried about, allowing Insurance Companies to charge older people five times more than young people rather than three times more. Looks like theres more money to cover that, but is that realistically mean older people pay more under this plan, do you think . Kelly, clearing it up, a state has to proactively choose to actually get rid of that Community Rating or provision. My experience working for two governors, unlikely many states are going to be unlikely to make the change. Secondly, 120 Million People have a preexisting condition, at the height of the preexisting Condition Fund in the aca, there was about 114,000 people in that fund overall, and so there will be a pot of money there. I think the numbers are exaggerated. I think the number of people losing coverage are exaggerated, but to the point we hear, the cbo numbers, the rock solid numbers, that drives the political debate, and the republicans are going to have to overcome the sound bite overall. Last one, kelly oh, sure. Go ahead. Last point i wanted to make, federal spending on health care led the relative performance of Health Care Stock since the aca. If theres less spending for health care, its going to affect Health Care Stocks overall. Sure, that is a big if, and getting to the heart of this, and the worry that more people loose coverage, theres an interesting incentive there, and it says, if you go without coverage for more than two months, there will be a 30 surcharge. Is that enough of a disinsentive people, you think, say, hey, its worth it to just have continuous coverage. Does that solve the fundamental prop here. I think if you ask most insurance ceos, the answer would be no. It is an alternative for sure. I note that continuous coverage notion mentioned is something that may not pass the bird rule in the senate. Continuous coverage, the actual value numbers on the different metals here, those are issues that could get vastly changed in the senate because of the bird rule, because of budget reconciliation, and because of the politics of the upper chamber. Just remind you quickly, what you mean by the bird rule would aft whether that piece could pass . Sure. So if theres a budgetary impact on a certain provision, then it likely passes through budget reconciliation. This is a way to get provisions through with only 51 votes instead of 60. It also has to be germane, and thats not extraneous. Those are the two considerations for the Senate Parliament as she figures out what happens with the bird rule and what passes muster and what doesnt. Going to the podium there, getting applause and greetings, some of the members of the House Republicans. Kathleen morris rogers. Brady there from the ways and means committee. And other dig tenitariedigni. By the way, just inside there, saying, Speaker Paul Ryan was in the oval office with President Trump, and as you imagine, a lot of smiling and hand shaking. A big win for the speaker in this, and not to, you know, handicap too much the political aspect of this, but it gives him a little bit of credibility, and, obviously, its not just a win for the president. And, by the way, first of all, i have to show the wires. Did you want to go to the break or stay with this . Okay. Eamon at the white house, i think, what are you witnessing now . Reporter well, i just saw a very giddy group of house spouses, the spouses of some of the lawmakers escorted through the west wing past the oval office on the way to the ceremony that youre watching here in the rose garden, and were told the president may be possibly early here, might be so anxious to get out there and talk to the crowd. They are pumped up here at the white house, but traditionally, you dont hold a big rally in celebration until after the bill has actually passed, and has been signed into law, and in this case, this is just a first step in a long process. They say, though, that they are not worry about the idea that they are throwing a locker room celebration at halftime because they are aware that there is a long road to go here for this piece of legislation. I asked sanders here at the white house minutes ago, you know, what the plan is to get this passed in the senate, and she said, well, as long as they dont tweak too much, were fine, meaning, the idea they expect changes from the senate to this bill, and well see how they reconcile the house and Senate Versions of this. We are headed for another impasse at some point. Well see whether the house conservatives have more flexibility when this bill comes back from their Senate Colleagues than they did initially, but for right now, this is a big win for the Trump White House. They want to savor it. The president wants to point out this is a big legislative win for the team. Paul ryan wants to point out he can deliver the votes. This may go some way towards smoothing over tensions between ryans camp and trumps camp from the Health Care Failure earlier this year. This is a big moment for the president , signaling they want to send from the Trump White House that donald trump gets legislation passed on capitol hill, implications for tax reform and other things he wanted to do. They won the pen nanlt, but they have to accomplish the world series. Exactly, the first game, going on the way to the final four, but youre in the sweet 16 and celebrating. Pick a metaphor here, but thats what they are doing. They are excited. They acknowledge that. I was trying to think of a lacrosse metaphor. We got the two minute warning before the president is coming out so hell come early. Asking ylan at the capitol, when does the senate pick it up, you think . Reporter we got a statement from the office saying he will wait until he sees that cbo score of the full compromised bill before considering this measure. Heres a little bit from what he said to the status quo unacceptable, the pain caused by obamacare is real, for millions of americans, repeal and replace this failed law. We got a statement from senator hatch, chairman of the finance committee, they must be focused on the art of the doable and our goal is just to get to 51 votes. Some recognition there that they will not be receiving democratic help on this. Republicans are going to have to do this one alone. Less than two minutes, clearly, may interrupt you, but what would you guess the Senate Changes . What is acceptable for 51 senators in the senate, do you think . Great question. I think theres going to be two thicks that are changed. Number one, the tax credits allowing the lower income folks in the individual market to have more generous tax credits. Right now, theres 2,000 to 4,000 per person, based on age only. Number two, i say in medicaid, theres states that extended medicaid to really shut that off quickly, i think itll be a more smooth phaseout. Very good. We have to interrupt. The house leadership made it to the podium there, and, you know, im sure paul ryan is walking with about a foot off the floor right now as he gets ready for the president to come out there, mccarthy as well, preparing for this celebration moment with the passage of the Obamacare Repeal and replace bill in the house. But as to the point they made, how celebration is it . They cleared one hurdle, but theres a big one to go. Interesting, quickly, dan, im going to ask you, wheres it leave the moderate republicans . So, the moderate republican, interestingly, kelly, most moderate republicans come from states where the protections were already in place. They voted no, but they can come back in the game when the Senate Moderates it down. Susan collins is going to water the bill down before it gets to the house, and may need republicans to push the conference agreement. Very good. If the Freedom Caucus is not there. All right. Folks, thank you. Here comes the president and the Vice President , and well watch by the way, the president s schedule till to go to new york city for a meeting with the australian Prime Minister and other things, but delayed that he was to have arrived by now in new york city, but delayed that to hold this moment with the house of the republicans. Many bhom whom he got on boa last minute to get the board passed. Lobbied on the phone to get the votes, and passed with one vote to go. Lets watch this. President , majority whip, chairwoman mcmorrisrogers, chairman brady, chairman walden, chairwoman black, mcarthur, congressman meadows, and all the principled members of congress who are standing with us here today, on behalf of President Trump and the first family, welcome to the white house. [ applause ] thanks to the leadership of donald trump, welcome to the beginning of the end of obamacare. [ applause ] march 2010 seven years ago, democrats passed the government takeover of health care. At the time, republicans in congress promised the American People that law would not stand. Today, thanks to the perseverance, determination, and the leadership of President Donald Trump and all the support of those gathered here, weve taken a historic first step to repeal and replace obamacare and finally give the American People the kind of health care they deserve. [ applause ] so today, with heart felt gratitude for all hes dope to keep his word to the American People and for all he will do to continue to make America Great again, it is my high honor and distinct privilege to introduce to you the president of the United States of america, President Donald Trump. [ cheers and applause ] thank you. Thank you. Thank you, mike. [ applause ] what a great group of people, and theyre not even doing it for the party. They are doing it for this country because we suffered with obamacare, and i went through two years of campaigning, and im telling you, no matter where i went, people were suffering so badly with the ravages of obamacare, and i will say this, that as far as im concerned, your premiums, they are going to start to come down. Were going to get this passed through the senate. I feel so confident. Your deductibles, when it comes to deductibles, they were so ridiculous nobody got to use their current plan. Nonexistent plan i heard so many wonderful things about over the last three, four days, and after that, i mean, i dont think youll hear so much right now. The insurance policy companies are fleeing. Its been a catastrophe. This is a gr