Transcripts For CNBC Closing Bell With Maria Bartiromo 20121

Transcripts For CNBC Closing Bell With Maria Bartiromo 20121026

Stocks . It may be early if youre trading oriented. I wouldnt be surprised to see a bit more choppy action and perhaps that extends but we may not quite have gotten there yet. Well keep watching for possible further decline in the market and deterioration on the earnings story. Rich peterson, we knew we were going to look at a contraction, how Many Companies . Is it 25 of the s p 500 has reported . Thats correct, little bit more than that. 23 have missed. But the dilemma they are saying is trying to find growth. When we started on october 9th when alcoa kicked off. A 1 to 2 decline in Third Quarter earnings. Financials has been the main stay, in part maybe we look at the numbers today, a little improvement, little help by refinancing, which is helping Consumer Cash flow. But the revenue hasnt been great, right . Thats going to continue into the Fourth Quarter and First Quarter of 2013. Low single Revenue Growth. You want to buy stocks and know youve got revenue so anemic and knowing that we are on border of fractional gain here . Weve seen this weakness that is providing an opportunity. We think the negative guidance weve seen on revenues is largely the result of fiscal cliff. So theres potential upside there if they are each a compromise and help stocks through year end and be on the election as well. Youre saying after the election, whoever wins gets together with congress and you think maybe we do get some kind of bargain by year end so we dont go over the fiscal cliff next year. Once the year ends, were over the fiscal cliff. And we know that because of politics, they couldnt address it before the election. But after the election, those lawmakers are looking towards their next election and we hope they do reach the compromise, otherwise were looking at congressional budget office, 2. 9 contractor hit to gdp in the next six months. If the president has been unable to lead both groups together, if the president has been unable to bring the two sides together to come up with a compromise, why should we believe hes going to do it later if he wins reelection . Without getting into a long political discussion, there were politics involved leading up to the election. When we get into that time period after the election, theyll come together and find a compromise. Rob morgan, do you agree with that . Does this dictate how you put money in the market . They are going to find a promiz, i think the fiscal cliff is overblown. I think congress set up the perimeters for the fiscal cliff and they are going to kick the can down the road. Thats an unfortunate consequence but not going to be clam tous for the stock market. Its going to be a choppy market. I like the large cap dividend paying stocks. You have to be invested here and something you said in the last hour, this is the size of a global slowdown but it seems were seeing signs of a pickup and poor earnings set the stage for easier comparisons Going Forward. Liz ann, what kind of 2013 are you looking for . It does depend on the fiscal cliff. If we go over it, the likelihood of recession is all about inevitable. By definition a recession is a significant contraction. But we would likely get one. If we can come up with a grand gar begin and it is progrowth and tax reform, then things look pretty good in 2013. We have manufacturing improving and Domestic Energy on fire to some degree and housing kicking in. Id be optimistic once we get past the fiscal cliff issue. Im more concerned about the monetary mountain. By that a mean a 3 trillion Federal Reserve balance sheet. At one point unlimited borrowing and buying of bonds and i know peter schiff and jim raised alarms about inflation out there. That is a concern that investors should be married about. Coming up with a new term, monetary mountain. Were seeing this on the air. No, were not concerned about the monetary mountain yet. Really we believe in the adage, dont fight the market. We think that with easy money policy, the fed is on our side for the foreseeable future, but down the road weve got a problem. And the fed is on our side and everyone searching for yield here. Its either the corporates bonds or its dividend payers, these are the only things working right now. Is that going to be the case as long as were in this low Interest Rate environment and monetary mountain . Thats what the fed is trying to do, trying to push people out the risk spectrum. Its unfortunate for the retirees of the world because it forces them into riskier Asset Classes and thats certainly one of the perils of this unpress denlted monetary ease. Go ahead, rob. Ive been on this large cap dividend paying growth stock kick for quite a while and im not getting off the train yet. In talking about what liz mentioned there, a lot of investors are underinvested in stocks, they are going into riskier assets but that is where the risk tolerance is suggesting they go. In terms of the tax story though, does anybody believe that the reason to own dividend players changes if the dividend tax goes to 43 . Come january 2013 if the bush tax cuts are revoked then dividend tax goes from 15 to 43 . I dont think these guys are that stupid to allow dividend taxes to go to 43 . That that would be a real market disrupter but who knows. Well, its inevitable it will have an impact. In addressing the fiscal cliff, we wont go to 43 . Any bets out there . I dont think we go to 43 . I think that will be one of the areas tackled in a compromise for sure. Absolutely. Thats good news. Thanks, we appreciate your time tonight and well see you soon. Which stocks got hit hardest this week. Mary thompson has a look at the stocks that were able to buck the trend. Another tough week for the markets and nasdaq extending the losing streak to two weeks. Blame it on the earnings season, disappoints on the top and bottom line along with weak forecast hammering stocks but helping those who beat estimates. Leading the dow lower, dupont, setting waengness in asia and cut Earnings Guidance for the year and cut 1500 jobs for the week, down 8. 4 . 3m, lowering its outlook as well, citing a weak global economy. New field exploration, the s p 500s worst performing down 20 after a drop in value triggered a Third Quarter loss. The Commerce Department wont finish reviewing their signs, contract for another six months sending its stock down almost 20 . Down 17 for the week. Sears was the big winner, up about 14 , followed closely by expedia, thanks to strength in its Hotel Business and the full year forecast, 13 last week. Varian medical, helped by stronger than expected Third Quarter results and raising guidance as well as for the Fourth Quarter, stock up almost 15 . Back to you. Great rundown. Keep it here, we have more heading your way on this big edition of closing bell. Storm watch, dire prediction of billions in dollars and flooding as sandy becomes more of a monster. The very latest on who is in her path of destruction is coming up. Why one vocal group is laying fiscal cliff blame at both of their feaet. And the apple effect, on what the Apple Earnings miss means for his company. All ahead on the closing bell. Welcome back, we keep the focus on the volatility Scott Spurling runs one of the oldest private equity firms and sees opportunity in Financial Services and health care. Welcome back. Thank you, maria. So there has been sfwl the last six to 12 months had a number of giraces to it. Weve seen that in the public market. For the private equity market, one of the things that driving deal valuation is credit markets as they get stronger, deal valuations tend to increase. For someone who is buying, that is not necessarily a good thing. That is something you need to work around. What we have found is by falling back to the sectors that we have been involved in for the course of almost 25 or 30 years, were able to generate transactions a bit off the beaten path and where we believe we have an advantage both in the sourcing and also in what we can do about those companies. And that occurs in the Media Information Services Area and consumer and Health Care Area and financial and business Services Area. Youre talking about private companies or public stocks . Its generally private companies but can also be a company that is publicly traded that we think theres opportunity. The partner with the management team, a private company can improve the operating efficiency of that company and accelerate the top line growth rate in a way that allows us to drive the kinds of returns were looking for. Were trying to identify within those sectors subsectors that have much better secular Growth Trends than the current sluggish gdp would provide for the broader market. I think its interesting that even with rates where they are, were not seeing a bigger surge in flow. Why do you think that is . And where do you characterize the deal activity for private equity . We have to look at the fundamental strength of companies in the outlook for growth particularly in demand and services of those companies and happen to be in a period where we think theres significant advantages to u. S. Based companies but those advantages are being offset to some large extent by a set of policies and regulations and urn certainties on the macro level, much of it in the United States but also obviously global issues that are well known, that create an enormous amount of needed caution in the world. Im not sure thats going to get resolved until we have significant resolution of where we are in the macro side. And of course the election is also a big uncertainty there. It certainly is. Do things get unlocked after november 6th . Whats your take on that . And also, well lets talk about the election. What kind of impact do you think after the election, things loosen up . I dont agree with the theory that says that its irrelevant who wins that its just certainty. I dont think this has ever been about just certainty. Its about a set of policies either encourage or allow Business Growth or set of policies that tend to diminish the ability of our economy to grow to employ people. I think the election is as many people have said, a very sequential one in terms of impact on our business because were trying to invest in companies where we believe we can generate better than gdp growth and look at the gdp baseline as something that determines whether or not the valuation we can pay for companies makes sense or not. Which candidate offers the best plan for growth, getting back to growth in the economy . I strongly believe that mitt romney has a set of policies that really focused on growing the economy. And his sole and single focus on creating jobs in the United States in the set of policies will lead to significantly higher gtp growth than over the last four years. I think theres a consequence as to who wins the election as opposed to the fact there will be quote unquote certainty. If you think president obama wins reelection, we sort of muddle along and not headed towards growth then . Again, i think if you look at whats happened over the course of the last four years, but particularly the last 18 months, weve seen significant desell race in growth. I think that has much to do with the set of policies that been problematic in terms of job growth in this country and also fundamental growth of overall gdp. Can governor romney win then do you think . Its an incredibly tight race. You tell me. I think people have seen the real mitt romney, the individual who has had an incredible track record of success, solving complex problems both in the private sector at bain years ago but also in the public sock tore in terms of saving the Salt Lake City olympics and governor of the state of massachusetts during a point in time when we had incredible bigt situation in the state and he was able to solve that. That was one of the points he made at the debate. He was able in the face of different parties, he was able to go ahead. I was going to say, all we can do is look at the track record of the individuals to figure out what might happen Going Forward. Even with all of this uncertainty, theres a recent poll of private equity executives that say they plan to invest more in 2013. Are you in that camp . I think, again, its hard to predict our hope is that there will be some level of growth particularly as the political environment evolves. Youre waiting for the election like everybody else . Waiting for the election like everyone else. Exactly. Sitting on cash and waiting. Yes, you know, again, were very much fundamental analysts of businesses and our ability to generate the kinds of returns we need to for investors and public Pension Funds and firemen and Police Officers and teachers who were the beneficiaries of those funds, for our broad range of investors, is really dependent upon our ability to see opportunities to invest at prices that reflect the fundamental growth story and i think today its been more difficult than we like and it means we got to work hard, which is okay. But in terms of the volume that youll see, i think thats going to be determined by the broader Macro Economic conditions. Unusually, ive been doing this for 30 years, never seen a situation where the Macro Economic issues are so impactful to the microeconomic fundamen l fundamentals of what were doing. Thank you very much. Good to see you. Scott sperling joining us from thl. Frankenstorm alert, what could be one of the most deadly and impactful storms to hit the northeast. How is facebook doing . Well have that trade next. The ceo of major apple supplier Qualcomm Joins me. The looming fiscal cliff and a lot more. Stay with us, back in a moment. In America Today were running out of a vital resource we need to compete on the global stage. What we need are people prepared for the careers of our new economy. By 2025 we could have 20 million jobs without enough College Graduates to fill them. Thats why at devry university, were teaming up with Companies Like cisco to help make sure everyones ready with the know how we need for a new tomorrow. [ male announcer ] make sure americas ready. Make sure youre ready. At devry. Edu knowhow. Bob. Oh, hey alex. Just picking up some, brochures, posters copies of my acceptance speech. Great its always good to have a backup plan, in case i get hit by a meteor. Wow, your hair looks great. Didnt realize they did photoshop here. Hey, good call on those mugs. Cant let em see what youre drinking. You know, im glad were both running a nice, clean race. No need to get nasty. Heres your honk if you had an affair with taylor yard sign. Looks good. [ male announcer ] fedex office. Now save 50 on banners. Welcome back. Hurricane sandy making its way towards the east coast right now. Many experts are warning that this could end up being one of the most costliest storms in years. Jim cantore has the latest on the storms path of destruction. Over to you, jim. Reporter maria, were about 250 miles from the center. And you can see the wave action behind me. Florida knew they would deal with the fringe effects. That said at the time of high tide this wave action we have behind us run all the way up to these chairs here. Im telling you, it was a matter of luck that they didnt wash out to sea. Well see what happens at 7 00 when the next high tide rolls in. Weve had bands of rain, some produced gusts as high as 50 or 60 Miles Per Hour. The weather from south florida to north will start to improve tomorrow. We know that. This is what im afraid of. Were going to see a storm that will weaken in terms of tropical intensity, go down to cat one and maybe even 70 Miles Per Hour and become a Tropical Storm. As thats going on, its going to change its characteristics, its going to go from just a tropical system to a noreaster. The wind field will spread. Its about 400 miles wide. It could be as high as 800 miles. 800 miles before it makes its way onto the coastline by Tuesday Morning. That means just take half of that, 400 miles worth, from d. C. And baltimore to new york city, going to have to deal with damaging wind issue. Weve never seen a situation like this show up on computer models where a hurricane morphs and moves ashore. The perfect storm did it but never came ashore. This one undoubtedly well. As late as sunday night with the storm well offshore, well get just with winds up to 35 Miles Per Hour. And people need to be done with the preparations by sunday night, even though it wont be until Tuesday Morning until the center of this thing comes ashore. So jim, how does it feel where you are right now . Youre saying that in terms of the new york area, boston, well feel it on monday going into tuesday . Reporter i think by 6 00 monday morning, well already have winds that will gust to near Tropical Storm force, boston, new york, baltimore and washington, d. C. Think about the disruption in transportation at that point. By the time we get into tuesday, thats when the center comes ashore. Depending on where that center comes ashore, well have all of the meaning in the world as to where the waves set up and bash lets say the jersey shore, long island sound, new york harbor, perhaps southern parts of new england. All of these areas will be highly impacted as waves off the coast will be at least 30 to 35 feet if not higher. Theres no question in my mind, were looking at the multimillion dollar disaster here fac

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