Transcripts For CNBC Fast Money 20160126 : vimarsana.com

CNBC Fast Money January 26, 2016

Volatile trade in the after hour sessions so far. Well bring you the head loins as they break. Well be checking in throughout the hour with bgcs colin gillis manning the red phone and meantime, guy, what do you make of the quarter . I think given where the price of the stock is, lets just call it 100. I think its something for everybody. Bears will point to the iphone shipments being somewhat disappointing. Bulls will point to increasing margin improvement and bears will point to the tax rate being a help to eps. Bulls report maybe will report to the fact that revenues were not as bad as some of the nay sayers on the street were going to say given what we heard from the supply side. Right here where its trading 99 is a coin flip. Given the choice between the two i think you buy it here. The Conference Call will really be key in terms of breaking the tie between the bulls and bears. What would be your number one question for tim cook . I guess it would be Forward Guidance which wasnt fantastic, right, though you wonder is he being a little conservative in that guidance. I i dont know. This is disappointing and in a different take i think it would be received better. As guy said, its really attractively priced in terms of pe, but i dont think thats what investors will focus on. Youre focusing on the bear case. Not particularly. I think it was a pretty uneventful quarter. You did the whole bull bear debate, so im just saying that, way to think out loud. Listen, heres the one thing that id be interested in asking how they are going to do is last Quarter International sales were 67 . This year 66 this quarter 66 , so thats rising, and we know, you know, with the strength of the dollar, we know where the growth is going to come from. You know, obviously theres a huge concern over china. All of last year china grew year over year 70 to 120 in each quarter. This quarter its up 15 year over year so its coming up against some very tough compares. Right. But i guess the pointsy think its pretty well known story. I dont dont tell me about valuation or that Balance Sheet because it was the whole way up on the way to 130 and now here we are at 100. I think what i would ask is whats next. Where are you going to be focused on . I think karen is right. That soft guidance going forward, i think its purposeful. He doesnt have a shot at the march quarter so he wants to throw it all out. Take it down. Exactly. I would think about where they focus next, the car, another phone, and i think the fact that its basically unched means its all priced in. The call would be a lot. Before we came out i said i wouldnt be shocked trading at 49 or 102. Saw the 104, 103 and now it backtracks a little bit and guys are poised to sit or add to their position now which is what i want to do, im waiting for that, waiting for another flush in the overall act to add to my already long position. You know whats really frustrating from a product standpoint. Thats whats driven this stock for years and years and the problem i see is you had asps for the ipad, down 20, year over year and we know the ipad has been x growth for a while and not even wheeling threequarters in to tell us how much watch units they sold and thats really frustrating if youre an investor who plays on the whole idea that this is a product story. Apple ceo tim cook is just Getting Started is on the Conference Call. Lets listen in. This is a huge accomplishment for our company, especially given the turbulent world around us. In Constant Currency our growth rate would have been 8 . Our record revenue and continued strong operating performance also led to an alltime record quarterly income of 18. 4 billion. We sold 74. 8 filion iknowns in the december quarter, an alltime high. To put that volume into perspective its an average of over 34,000 iphones an hour, 24 hours a day, seven days a week for 13 straight weeks. Its almost 50 more than our volume two years ago and more than four times our volume five years ago. 74. 8 million iphones is an incredible number, and it speaks to both the immense popularity of iphone and the phenomenal execution of our teams to deliver a massive number of devices in such a short period of time. Our results are particularly impressive given the challenging global Macro Economic environment. Were seeing extreme conditions unlike anything weve ever experienced before just about everywhere we look. Major markets including brazil, russia, japan, canada, southeast asia, australia, turkey and the eurozone have been impacted by slowing economic growth, falling Commodity Prices and weakening currencies. Since the end of fiscal 2014, for instance, the euro and british pound are down double digits and major currencies such as the canadian dollar, australian dollar, mexican peso and turkish lire have declined 20 or more. The brazilian real is down more than 40 and the russian ruble has declined more than 50 . Twothirds of apples revenue is now generated outside the United States so foreign currency fluctuations have a very meaningful impact on our results. Page one of our supplemental material illustrates this point. 100 of apples nonu. S. Dollar revenue in q4 of 14 translated to only 85 last quarter due to the weakening currencies in our international markets. As you can see, the movement has been dramatic. Last quarter alone, the currency impact has been very large. Page 2 of our supplemental material indicates our q1 revenue and growth rates expressed in Constant Currency. The 8 growth rate i spoke about earlier translates to 80. 8 billion in Constant Currency revenue which is 5 billion more than our reported revenue. For perspective, that difference is about the size of the annual revenue of a fortune 500 company. We know the conditions in china have been a source of concern for many investors. Last summer while Many Companies were experiencing weakness in their chinabased results, we were seeing just the opposite with incredible momentum for iphone, mac and the app store in particular. In the december quarter, despite the turbulent environment, we produced our best results ever in Greater China with revenue growing 14 over last year, 47 sequentially and 17 year over year in Constant Currency. These Great Results were fueled by our highest ever quarterly iphone sales and record app store performance. Notwithstanding these record results, we began to see some signs of economic softness in Greater China earlier this month, most notably in hong kong. Beyond the shortterm volatility, we remain very confident about the longterm potential. China market and the large opportunities ahead of us, and we are maintaining our investment plants. Despite the economic challenges all over the world, apple remains incredibly strong. We have a very satisfied and Loyal Customer base. We saw a greater number of switchers from android to iphone than ever in q1, and we are very optimistic about our business over the long term. Innovation has always been the reason behind our success, and we remain committed to making the best products in the world and expanding the apple experience to change our customers lives in better and more meaningful ways. Weve invested through Economic Uncertainty in the past, and weve always come out stronger on the other side. In fact, some of the most important breakthrough products in apples history were born as a result of investing through the downturn. Weve also seen these times as opportunities to invest in new markets just as were doing now in areas such as india and other emerging markets. Getting back to our record q1 performance, let me give you some highlights of what weve accomplished since our last quarterly call together. We shipped the amazing new ipad pro which has been extremely well received by customers along with the new smart keyboard and revolutionary apple pencil. We launched the allnew apple tv with its own app store laying the foundation for the future of television. We had our best quarter by far for apple tv sales and a number of apps developed for apple tv is growing rapidly. Today there are over 3,600 apps delivering everything from games to entertainment to educational programming. We expanded distribution of apple watch to almost 12,000 locations in 48 countries during the quarter. As we expected, we set a new quarterly record for apple watch sales with especially strong sales in the month of december. We released os10 el captain, refining experience and improving performance for our mac customers and updated the entire family with entire retinal displays and an interesting new lineup of wireless accessories. We launched apple pay in canada with American Express and announced plans to bring a conveniently secure and mobile secure experience to china, hong kong, spain and singapore in the coming year. Consumers have spent billions of dollars with apple pay. In the second half of 2015 we saw a significant acceleration in usage with a growth rate ten times higher than in the first half of the year. There are now hover 5 million contactless payment ready locations in the country where apple pay is live today and its soon to be available at thousands of apple and mobile branded stations in the u. S. Via the speed plus app. Finally, we also shared the incredible apple music experience with even more listeners with over 10 million paying subscribers less than four months since customers began paying for the service. Our financial position has never been stronger. We have the mother of all Balance Sheets with almost 216 billion in cash which translates to nearly 39 per diluted share of apple stock. We continue to invest confidently in our future, and we also continue to return capital to our shareholders at a rapid pace. Our investors have been asking for a while about the recurring nature of our business. Especially during a period of Economic Uncertainty, we believe it is important to appreciate that a significant portion of apples revenue recurs over time. First and foremost, our Customer Satisfaction and retention rates are second to none and provide us with a long lasting foundation. For example, recent consumer surveys by 451 research, formerly known as change wave, measured an incredible 99 Customer Satisfaction rate for iphone 6 and 6s plus and an equally impressive 97 rate for the ipad air 2. They also indicate that our iphone loyalty rate is almost twice as strong as the next highest brand. In addition, a growing portion of our revenue is directly driven by our existing install base. Because their customers are very satisfied and engaged, they spend a lot of time on their devices and purchase apps, content and other services. They also are very likely to buy other apple products or replace the one that they own. And because of the enduring value of the device, their replacing is likely higher to be given or sold to someone who will love it and use it often. As a result, our install base has been growing very fast and has receipt entally reached a major milestone crossing 1 billion active devices for the first time. This is an unbelievable asset for us. Because our install base has grown quickly, we have also seen an acceleration in the growth of our services business, another large and important source of recurring revenues. Now that we have reached a milestone of 1 billion active devices, we thought this would be a great opportunity to share more information on what has become one of the Largest Service businesses in the world. So now id like to turn the call to luca who will provide more insight into how our platform has grown followed by details on our record quarterly results. Thank you, tim, and good afternoon, everyone. Each quarter and weve been listening to ceo tim cook on the apple Conference Call. Hes handing it over now to the cfo for some more details on the financial aspect of the quarter, so lets talk about this. Interesting most recently he talked about the recurring nature of the business and talked specifically about the install base. The apple bears would want to hear about recurring revenue in terms of subscription revenue whether for the phone or other services. That was part of the story. The other part to me that sort of stood out even in the face of currency headwinds, bric, brazil, rush, absolutely awful and china slowing. Back to guys point. Some for the bulls, some for the bears. Never had a stock have this reaction so muted in how many quarters. Down 50 cents. Really seems to be in lockstep here in the after hour session in terms of the currency headwinds, stagger stat that he mentioned is 100 of nonu. S. Revenues was 85 last quarter because of weakening currency in an international market. Yeah, and i think, you know, well have the fed tomorrow. Yeah. I dont think theres going to be much going on that will weaken the dollar here, even if they dont kind of continue on their rate increases so i think this muted tone about currency and about International Sales has to do with the fact that this is their world and where the growth is going to come from, and i think its really important to remember that this is a company where estimates for 2016, earnings and sales growth, were at one point a few months ago mid to high Single Digits and now they are Single Digits. Estimates being that low theres the potential to be but it also has the potential i think in april well hear more of that kind of sour tone about china on this next call, and i think thats probably the thing that takes this stock a little bit lower. If you look at the top ten holders and wanted to be a seller of apple i think you sold it. I think they started to sell it already. I think the major big boys are already out of whatever they have to be out of in the name so they needed something that was really poor on this earnings report. Okay. To load up and start selling it again. I think at this point people are waiting to buy the dip, and thats probably why you dont see the stock doing anything because they are more fearful of the overall market. Okay. So that indicates to me that you believe that theres some sort of a floor under the stock at this point because i still go with that august low basically. Thats fine, but that doesnt tell me that the stock is going higher. It doesnt but its not going to tell you its going to go lower. True. This stock has been floundering now. Listen, i know it traded up to 134 in may and stuff and trading 100 now, but its been a sideways action on good tapes, bad tapes for quite some time so i dont think it tells you where its going at all. I get they talk about the Balance Sheet, god bless it, but until you can repatriate that money he might as we will not talk about it because you might as we will have nothing because its not doing him any good. In an Election Year cycle so people will talk about that debate a lot more which could be a catalyst. Up next, the best performing stock last year and netflix are down 14 this year and sat out the rally today. Well tell what you had traders streaming out of the stock. Plus, freeportmcmoran soaring on better than expected earnings. Is it beating down Mining Companies saying things are better for the global economy. Well take a deeper dive. And one of the biggest bond managers on the street is here with a big bold call on the fed. Much more fast money after this. Welcome back to ffun. Freeportmcmoran soaring after reporting a smaller than expected loss. Heres what the ceo will to say on the Conference Call earlier today. Take a listen. We face serious challenges because of whats going on in the marketplace and because of the situation with our Balance Sheet. We talked about it at the end of the third quarter. We were looking at various sn e scenarios that ranged from a further decline in prices at that time to other more positive scenarios. Were experiencing the worst of those scenarios right now with copper dropping to 2 and oil dropping to 30. Worst of the scenarios and Balance Sheet in nearly the same sentence. Karen, not good. Not good. You know, the stock had a huge percentage gain, but you have to be youve got to be aware of whats happening on the debt side of the Balance Sheet. Always talk about the credit analyst being way smarter than the equity analyst, okay. So the equity moved, i dont know, 300 million. Theres 20 billion of debt outstanding and its trading at a huge discount. Paper thats due in 17, a year and a half from now yields 20 . Thats telling you theres a huge danger of a serious possibly bankruptcy here. Do not get sucked into the equity without realizing that you you can lose 100 . I get it at 4 when you see oil or copper move in the slightest, and i think a lot of that is what he was saying today on air but when you saw oil move for a 4 name you could see them move higher. That was a horrible rally today in the equity, horrible rally. Sprint uppy 20 on better than expected results. Thats the sort of face ripper you want to see, up 6. 5 after being up 12 . Oil right now, approximate lit revenues are 4. 5 billion in the oil space. 1 billion i guess in the copper space. If you see oil start to stabilize, i dont know if it also, i dont know if its going to hold the 30 mark, but if oil holds here thats probably enough. Risk reward, 4 bucks. Theres a 4 call on apple. They are looking possibly to sell the oil and gas business. Thats what they indicate. Would that be enough if they sold off assets . Well, yes, but they are not going to get good prices that would help. Maybe they can buy some time. Its interesting to me we do not see carl out there at all. You dont see him anywhere at all, dont see him in apple. When was the last time we heard from him . I wouldnt be surprised if hes out in the debt here because thats what will control. You made the point carl has not said a word since august about freeportmcmoran, began from 13 down to

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