Well explain. First starting off with the markets, what else stock market closing at the highs capping an end to an extremely extremely rocky week. The dow soaring 350 points seeing its second best day of 2016, crude oil staged a massive rally along were big rebounds in the banks but the rallies failed to turn the major indices positive. We sit back here on friday and say what the heck happened guy adam . What the heck happened. Yeah. Ill tell you what the heck happened. Yesterday you had a couple of good things happen. At 2 30 you had the uae headline. Stop the s p on a dime at 1810. Steve and i have been the 1780 camp. Maybe close number one. After market jamie dimon, all love jamie dimon, he announces hes buying jpmorgan stock. Geffen theyre critically the all clear for banks and then the Deutsche Bank headline overnight. Right. Those three things confluence of events long weekend. Does that address the Major Concerns in. Im not saying that i knew the market was around but what we did say yesterday, whatever starts today, whatever that initial move is dont fade t. Marbling it open on the lows of the day and close on the highs. I do israel. Thats power going into a weekend, especially when people are like the chinese will come back from their holiday and its a case where its back to business and back to fearmongering, but the things we talked about yesterday, i thought dan nathan made an interesting point and challenged me on the negative feedback. That implies that its not real and what you have here in the case of oil, Nothing Happened at all, and in fact the sentiment is so bearish youre in a case here where even the prospect of an opec cut, it was the journal article that did that. I dont think anybody has varified this so the fact within opec and russia they have blinked, and i think thats enough to tell people that at some point the supply pullback could be a big part of it. Same thing with the banks. It doesnt really change anything that Deutsche Bank bought distressed bonds but they at least are sending the message weve got plenty of fire power. I said a couple of days ago when larry is on. This is effectively the state bank of germany. They have as much firepower as they need and can do what they need and Market Conditions are so oversold very positive. What everyone is saying a couple of things have to happen. You need to have oil stabilize. I dont think one day off is going to do that for us. You need to have the banks stabilize. I dont think a one day off is going to do that for us. But we ear also saying that we can balance. If you look at the level 1863 thats the level i had said at the what do we call it smart board. Smart board. At the simard board, i guess not that smart. Well, i dont know. If youre wearing a sweater apparently not. 1863 is the level to watch, close one handle above that so i do think obviously we have a threeday weekend. I want to see china get back online and a couple things happen you need oil to stabilize the market and one day does not make a trend. Heres the way i look at it. It was derisking essentially a little bit of good news shows you exactly how clients are positions or how institutions are positions, total derisking ahead of a long weekend. Derisking meaning taking off negative speculation. Youre short equities and short oil, short lets say equities and oil, youre covering. Its in absolute reversal of every team weve seen as far as positioning and thats how you have to look at the market right now. Look at it and if youre trading short term bring themes into that and create a longer term struck tour. Dont fade this bounce that we saw today on tuesday, whats your inclination for the market . I think well its thats a good question because its a long ways off. And its a long weekend. Long weekend. Historically a tough foim for volatility. Ill say this. If you somehow get positive news out of asia if the european banks stabilize and firm up again youll see the s p get back to the levels we have talked about, 1920 to 1940. Huge ifs. 1940 is the upper end of the region and i think on the downside we break through these levels, 1820 level, 1780 is a foregone conclusion. A key ingredient to todays rally oil. Saw its best day, rebounding from a 13year low. Our next guest says do not buy the hype. The worst is definitely not over for the crude trade. Well welcome tom kloza of the oil pricing industry. Tom, always great to get your perspective. Hi, its an interesting day and we were down on the week for oil. Its melissa, by the way. The worst is not over tom, then where do we go . Well the next 45 days are really challenging for crude because in addition to all the refinery maintenance that is normally schedule you had a situation where refiners were running crude oil for lets say 28 or 30 and selling gasoline for 20 to 25 a barrel. They are cutting back. Were actually going to see less demand for crude oil in the United States over the next few weeks or so, so i think that we havent necessarily seen the lows. I think theres a lot of pressure thats going to be brought to bear and the report about the United Arab Emirates they are probably the lesser member of the troika. Its the saudis and kuwait. Kuwait announced earlier this week that they were going to increase production by 150 n. O. W. Barrels a day by the Third Quarter so it still looks colleague for the next few months. Thats it. Its all about timing and im not sure that a lot of people on this desk i should say, at least our audience are looking to time the market perfectly. I know its turnaround season for refiners and saudis certainly, their whole market share experiment is far from over. They want to see what irans capability, is but cant you say we are getting very close and if its very close. Im not going to ask you to invest in oil stocks but to say that things are going to be so depressing the next couple of weeks. Its been depressing for the last year and a half. The prospect i think spring is going to be a lot better and ultimately you have the dynamics that in the short term will change very quickly. Well, i mean, youre making the case for how far ahead do you look. And im saying fundamentally the next 40 days look very, very ugly for crude oil for the u. S. And abroad. After that i think it looks a lot better. If youre a refiner you probably saw the turn this week. I think gasoline prices in the United States have probably bottomed. At 169. 9 we saw overnight. That may be it for the first eight months of the year so yeah, i think it gets better in the Second Quarter. People will be using a little bit more fuel. If you dont have a breakdown or attrition in the emerging markets, you get a demand kick of about 1. 2 Million Barrels a day or more owe it gets better and i agree with the prognosis that 2017 and 18 are higher prices, but, boy, its hard to see light at the end of the tunnel for cruise. We did see light at the end of the tunnel for the gasoline market. But the bottom line here is tom we make another run for 21 to 26 . I think the big technical numbers people are looking at are between 22 and the previous lows hit earlier in the week. Again, wti is much much more pressured than brent because the cutbacks weve seen in refining are u. S. Based so once we get through that and we get into the Second Quarter i think that things improve and dont be surprised to see the price of gasoline on a per barrel basis trade for twice the price of crude oil somewhere in the next 60 days. Tom, thanks for phoning in. Have a great weekend. Take care. Tom kloza. If the next 40 days will be rough and we make that run to 21, does that necessarily mean that stocks move along with crude . If the bottom falls out of crude, a couple of things happen when we open up the show. You saw crude tick higher and the banks tick higher people put their money to equities and crude comes back in it will break 1784 the next level to look. Already cracked the recent low in crude. I think that goes lower and i do believe the rest of the market goes lower as 12 ill Say Something else i said on the show before. 50 is your top in crude. It will never trade there again. I think closer to the 40 you get you keep laying it out because thats where the hedging will really start to begin. Once we get to 40 bucks, if we get to 40 bucks, i think youll continue to see massive, massive production in the u. S. I look at it and say its very simple. I cant imagine buying an equity right now unless its for a very short term period. An oil equity. Oil equity the lower quality guys have to be burged. Theres obviously positioning going on there, but they need to seat bankruptcies which have to occur before you can step in and feel comfortable. Even though theres a lot of money on the sidelines, a lot of big institutions that want back in this space. They will not do it unless theres absolute comfort. They cant explain to their investors why. If i have a six month horizon does it change . It does. Steve saying they are never getting back above 50. I did replay it a couple of times when i said never. Trying to figure out the direction. I will say for an extended period of time because as were looking at this now all the producers become more efficient at what they do so their break evens become lower. Youve had advances in drilling alternatives come on so you have a bunch of countries that are never going to stop producing, and they are banging everyone. Meanwhile hold on. I doesnt realize you need investment in oil, its going to stop flowing. I need an answer though. Short show. If you dont agree with six in the next six months you think oil equities could be a buy, which ones . I think they are a buy now. Okay, fine. Integrated where . Oxy, apc, exxon, bp you got it. Real quick. On this note the ovx, Oil Volatility index closed over 80 and closed up 1. 5 and not necessarily giving you the all clear. A blue chip beatdown and a fang stock bucking the trend. Well give you the names and trades next. Retails moment of truth from bellwether walmart to Department Store nordstrom. Two key retailers on deck to report earnings. Whether they are worth a buy ahead. Results and later, dont look now. Jpmorgan is having its best day in more than five years but one of are our traders says look out below. Hell explain why hes getting short right now. Much more fast money right after this. Welcome back to fast money money. A crazy week in the market led to some wild moves for stock. The biggest moves of the week in a special edition of top trades. Netflix bucking the trend, shares up nearly 6 this week. Guy . Kudos to tim. 95 was the line in the stand. I think mark cuban just talked about buying puts against this netflix position. Yes, it had a good week. In my opinion only had a good week only because we were so oversold. Got to be true to my word. Love the story, but in my opinion to trade it its got to recapture 95. Were still about 10 , 11 away from that. Got to wait for it to get back there, hold it and maybe we is can have the next leg higher. Where do you stand on it . I like the stock long term. You know where i stand from that perfective. Near term have to wait for them to perform sub numbers. People want to see where it comes out. Wait for them to report and see how the number looks and how the guidance looks and move forward. Theres questions about International Intervention as an engine of growth. U. S. Is already saturated and if you think that these guys can have the same Cultural Impact in other places. I get developed europe maybe possibly but to think its already not happening in japan, going to not happen in china or not happen in india, the stock, multiplewise thats what this market cares about. Do not chase this stock. Whats the multiple for it . First of all, should trade a like a cable company. If it earned 7 bucks in 2017. 20 times. I get how it applies, but it sort of doesnt apply because a southern sector. Market where there is not a comparable and it will never apply. As they start having money and having earnings come in. The margins will shift and the spending will be cut down dramatically. It should be. Look at 7 bucks, probably an easy do. First of all, had a great call on this and alsogrowth. You nailed that as well and the way they exploded. That was a shock. Yeah. When they exploded. Good good call up or down . Hes been all over it. Had a good call on the way up with International Growth and a good call saying it was petering out and momentum was failing. Come on, tim. Heres the thing all over the place. International growth where everyone thought they would come out in four Different Countries and blew it out of the water. I think people nobody saw that coming. So i think that still shocked the market but if were in an environment where momo is not paid momo and you dont have a multiple on it then you have a problem. Solar city getting crushed the past five days. Huge declines came after a q4 weak guidance in the first quarter. A couple of downgrades and outperforms still on the street. Higher costs and operating costs spread between deployments and ultimately where the actual projects are coming out. One thing i think you can take solace at if you believe these guys continue to finance themselves, they trade at asset levels, one time their asset levels so make an argument there should be a floor underneath the stock but a lot of people believe none of these guys can finance themselves in the new market environment. I think its challenging. I think the stock is a notouch but i dont think its going out of business and probably getting very interesting pricewise. Yeah. You know there was it was once viewed that the expiration. Investment tax credit would shake out some of the weak players in the industry. With the extension youre allowing the other players to just to sort of continue existence and thats not necessarily a good thing for the market. Some powers have a Better Business model and that gets thrown in with everybody else. Up 4 had tomorrow western on a number of times and thats the great place to be. A great call for a while and been a louis call but at 29. 50, i heard what tim said about solarcity, rather be in solar power. Boeing falls 12 this week. Grasso grasso . Concerns about pricing or repricing but if you look at the stock longer term theres no fighting. It goes from in dennis gartmans words lower left upper right and ive been a long investor since the middle 80s in this up. If were in a slow Global Growth environment this one is going to be challenged. The balance zone is right around par. 100 in the name. I agree. We came out and defended the stock pretty aggressively on the pullback. Our analyst has been covering the stock for like 40 years and his thought is essentially, you know the s. E. C. Investigation is the bottom of the list as far as his concern. Pretty decent level, like this Company Long Term and wouldnt be too concerned over that. Id be a buyer. I dont understand why you wouldnt be concerned into any s. E. C. Investigation into any company when it comes to a Major Program like the 747. Seems like the level of communication has been different for this company over the last two or three months so you know, it gets to this place. When times are good things seem to be meaning they should be talking to investors more. Or maybe they should not be talking to investors as much all the time. I dont know. Clearly its inconsistent and thats troubling for a company like that. Very inconsistent when you take into consideration over the summer, i think it was a delta ceo, correct me if im wrong said something about peak demand for airliners, correct. Boeing came out and said wrong, wrong, wrong. Then they came out and talked about their cargo planes. They cut that down, and then they reported a quarter and then they sort of gave its been a number of things this being the last so you have to at a certain point you need to take the credibility into question so i think its got to recapture 120. I dont see it happening any time soon up. Next, china is officially open for business next weekend and it could have major implications for the markets. First trades for tuesday right after this. Im melissa lee, and youre watching fast money on cnbc first in business worldwide. Meantime, here what else is coming up on fast. Coming up its been a bright spot in the markets. Retail, but with walmart and nordstroms still set to report is the consumer still spending . Its the ultimate test and well tell you what to expect. Plus why one laggard of a leading sector is about to break out. The name and you can make money. All that and more ahead this hour. Hey, jesse. Who are you . Im vern, the orange money retirement rabbit from voya. Vern from voya . Yep, vern from voya. Why are you orange . Thats a little weird. Really . Thats the weird part in this scenario . Look, orange money represents the money you put away for retirement. Save a little here and there and over time, your money could multiply. See . Ah, ok. So, why are you orange . Funny. See how voya can help you get organized at voya. Com. I take prilosec otc each morning for my frequent heartburn because you cant beat zero heartburn ahhh the sweet taste of victory prilosec otc. One pill each morning. 24 hours. Zero heartburn. Welcome back to fast money. Well get our first taste of how retailers performed this quarter when walmart and nordstrom report on tuesday. Take your position ahead of next weeks earnings. Walmart has been a standout this year . Stay with walmart because i think the bar is extremely low. These guys in the last quarter, almost two quarters have started to show a reversal of what was a terrible trend in terms of samestore sales. Management is starting to focus on competitive advantage which is price so if i had to choose one or the other, nordstroms has had a pretty decent run off the floor, very very cheap. Probably very overdone but walmart is the sustainable in this environment. Valuation certainly works. Look, ill give you my longterm is walmart and next week a trading opportunity in jwn. I think they will report and numbers will struggle. They will guide down. The stock will get hurt on the earnings report. Thats when you buy it for a shortterm pop. Grasso . Look at wall markets the chart is much more constructive than if you look at jwn. Look for it to trade and close above 67. 75, the 200day moving average. Jwn, 50 50. 50 thats the 50day moving average. Macys is interesting. Struggled with 40 a couple of days and ever since they gave disastrous comps its traded remarkab