Transcripts For CNBC Fast Money 20161123 : vimarsana.com

CNBC Fast Money November 23, 2016

Freeport mac up 16 and caterpillar up 16 . Target is still interesting. Mel, welcome back. Target had a great quarter. I know its not nearly as interesting as Goldman Sachs or freeport mac or caterpillar up 50 this year. But target to me seems like they got their they got their feet back underneath them and it manifested itself in the last quarter. The technology is much better. I think theyve separated themselves some walmart. Out of those four names, thats probably the name with the most up side right now. Anybody like target as well . I like target store. I think shortterm target is a name to own. Longterm investors can look at this tape and say, look, if everything pans out accordingly, to the plan, people are going to do fine. The market will continue according to the planning of the trump plan . Were trading on combinatiexs right now. Banks trading on expectations of dodd frank reform. Biotech names trading on expectations of better pricing. Move down the list. Expectations have pushed stocks, in my opinion, in the nearterm, to levels that i dont believe this rally is not sustainable, straightup. So i think you pull back a little bit. I think thats fair. And to speak to that, i would be a buyer of Phillip Morris. I owns reynolds american. I think there is value added by that. We should note that Phillip Morris is not on that list of winners, because its on our list of losers. Well show you in a minute. Down 9 since the election. What were the yield stocks or defensive stocks. I mentioned last week, clorox and some names are actually oversold and are back to value territory. So as i look at a market, first of all, its amazing everybody wanted financials to lead us to the next phase. Theyre leading us here. So people who discount the fact that, boy, its just really banks and a few minors, this is what the market needed to do. I dont think you can discount the fact that industrials and banks are actually leading the market higher and that is very encouraging. But too much too fast. So that rotation for now is down into these winners . I think it should be done for now. Those are the names that it should be. But does that mean you believe theyll probably go higher anyway . Yeah, i probably i probably would see them going a little bit higher. But they dont ring the bell at the top. You know we always say that on trading shows. Xlf, xli. Youve got to lock in profits. I was watching. Uri long from high 70s, sold it, because it just wasnt popping any more. For me, once it runs out of momentum, it could move sideways. It was actually up today, i sold it yesterday. It was up today. Is there more juice left . Yes. Is there a hunt for performance, its a yearend. Maybe so. But i think youre getting greedy. So you look at a name like a Goldman Sachs up 17 and caterpillar, you would say fade that. I would say fade financials, fade industrials. Tim and i talked about it yesterday. Housing names, i got longer yesterday. Kbh, i got longer phm, pulte. I think housing, underrated, underowned. I would say, mel, i think the resources space, though, is still not only underowned, but largely very inexpensive. You look at where copper is trading around 260 a pound, relative to the past and the valuation of these names. Freeport has been slowly paying down debt. This is a stock i did add to yesterday. And i think you have an opportunity. Again, for theres a lot of people in these names from prices much higher up. And i think you have to be careful. In terms of the banks, there are a couple banks still not trading book value. We talk about them all of the time, citibank trading 80 of book. Bank of america probably about the same. You juxtapose that with jpmorgan probably now 1. 3 , 1. 140 of book or so. So i think there is a real good chance that the two aforementioned backs, citi and bank of america, trade up the book value. You asked about Goldman Sachs. This is a stock thats going to probably continue to run. It was eight years of people being scared to be in Goldman Sachs. Thats all seemed to have gone by the wayside. Im not saying its right, by the way. But that apparently is whats happening. So the pilein will seem to continue. I think the only thing that the only thing i see derailing it, its a fed meeting and january 20th when the inauguration takes place. Thats the thing we dont know. We expect the Market Participants expect that the fed is going to raise Interest Rates in december. Pretty much the scenario. What we dont know, what theyre going to say in the press conference and the trajectory of the future rate hikes. Is that a concern and the reason why you fade these winners . Its amazing how the fed concept not the fed themselves have gotten a free pass. We should be concerned about the fed and if the fed suddenly feels they are behind the curve, the wages print and next week a huge payroll number and i think that will give them a mindset going into what people expect to its not reits, its deregulation and theyre not going to roll ever everything. Lets check some of the losers in the trump rally. Newmont mining, sinking 12 , since the election. First solar down 11 . Trip adviser down 19 . The aforementioned Phillip Morris down 9 . Buying or selling any of these names . Seaburg. No, none of them. No touch. I dont like any of them. I dont get the mining names and selectively, maybe tip your toe in there. The metals and mining in general look at the move its had. Look at steel in general and say 250, 300 yeartodate move in steel is insane. We need to see global growth. The price of the commodities the rise in iron ore and copper. Isnt that telling us there is Global Demand . Speculative move. I not necessarily i think its more speculative moving right now. Its fast money, essentially getting into these trades. Not necessarily that gold will demand is picked up. I do believe the risk. I hear tims bullish call and other banks bullish on copper this week. I think the rink is to the down side, because if that infrastructure, whether its 1 trillion or 2 trillion, the risk could be its less. Right. The risk could be it takes longer. What i do think are tax cuts will be easily digested for the republicanowned government right now. I do think those can come on a pretty quickly. Thats bullish for our growth. Global growth. But i do think copper is ahead. Heres the thing. Newmont mining is down from 45 down to 31. Thats a gold play. So its really a function of what gold has done here. And you cant tell me all of the gold bugs out there, that were not even more in an environment where you should be owning gold if we got more political uncertainty, we actually have inflation. I realize the dollar is rising and i realize Interest Rates are going higher and this is the reason for owning goelld. At some point, 11. 80 is good for gold. Would you look at gold . a miner. If there ever was a reasonable time for gold, its now. Its hard, though, to make the decision to buy gold at a time when markets are hitting alltime highs. Thats just the fact of the matter for most people. I think people are looking at it wrong. But it doesnt matter what i think. You would rather be the latter. The one name on that list we didnt mentioned is trip adviser. And there is a reason why trip adviser is on that list. Look at what priceline said a couple weeks before and then look at the trip adviser quarter. Not nearly anything remotely close. Priceline trades at a better valuation. Tripadvise sore 33 times earnings. All right. As stocks have rallied since the election, so have rates. Could that jeopardize this market rally. Gets talk with zeph spiro. I would like to discuss the broad markets. The major indexes from a technical perspective are very bu bullish. Two weeks ago, the Dow Jones Industrial average recorded an all time high. And the s p 500 moved out to an alltime high. What i would like to do now, here is the chart of the s p 500. I would like to drill down on the last five months, starting with right over here, this was in july. We got a breakout over here above the may 2015 high. That was the previous alltime high at 2134. This break outreinstated a prime year uptrend and indicated the potential for significantly higher prices. Just over the last since august, we have a minor day correction, that correction is defined by this trend line that began in late august. The correction brought us down to the 200day moving average, just the beginning of this month. And then we got a rocket like a launch rally, that broke out and moved above this descending trend line. That signaled the end of the minor correction and actually led to a breakout above the august high, which just further reinforced the overall bullish composure. Overall outlook is extremely positive in equities. Does that mean we load up now, here . I dont think so. The broad markets, at least some most of the major indexes, are quite overextended in the short term. Actually, the s p 500 and russell 2000 for the last twoandahalf weeks made higher lows consecutively every day. Basically, we are expecting a consolidation or pullback from current levels, which would be healthy prior to higher prices. So where are we going to pull back to . That is the question. The most obvious answer at this point is back to this trend line. Im just going to extend it over here. A retest of this trend line would be the 2150 area. If we get a pullback to 2150 and it holds, that would be viewed as a buy opportunity. If prices break below that level, we could retest this area right here, which is the 2105 to 2115 area. Zeph, well leave it there. Thank you for your zev spiro. You look at levels a lot. 2134, thats that was a battleground. Thats been a battleground support now. Resistance when we were below it. That looks like if this market starts to revert back, that looks like an area of concern. That would be a level in the market that is a musthold before you start to see people say, you know what, let me start dumping everything and asking questions later. So tomorrow is what . Its turkey day. Yes, it is. Gobble, gobble. Its thanksgiving Everybody Loves that. So people are going to be sitting around the table and saying, you know what, this trump rally, its amazing. Were at record highs. Do you think its going to go higher . Is that what theyre talking about . Who, ho, ho, ho. Tomorrow is whatever november 24th, or whatever it is . So what are we close to, the yearend, right . We talked about this monthsing and the potential for an outside year to the up sed. As we get close to the end of the year, the 2134 level, last years high, looms very huge. A closeup of there, and every technician on the planet, including my man, zev, who, by the way, that was his Maiden Voyage and he did a nice job. He did. Awesome name, too. Zev. Its not zed from pulp fiction. Close above 21. 35 this year, very bullish. What will the answer be at your thanksgiving table . A lot of uncertainty and were talking about the referendum in italy, the opec meeting, the fed. Were going to be talking about thats what we do at the seymour house. Im the ambassador. If we look at the uncertainty out there, i agree with guy and we talked about seasonal effects, removing the election, even though you put in the guy a lot of people said would not be good for markets and clearly thats proven to be the opposite. You took away a lot of the concern for the market. The election is an event. Removing it so higher to the end of the year. Your guess at this point in time. I think well drift higher but you should own volatility below 13. That is a gift. Gobble gobble. Ill stop dont do it again thats a challenge. Coming up, a surprising but under the radar group of stocks surging on Donald Trumps big win could signal a Broader Group on the economy. What they are and if any are worth buying. And bear hunting with dr. Doom himself, marc faber and what his worried about stocks in the face of this trump rally. And Retail Stocks soaring ahead of one of the biggest shopping days of the year but one Hedge Fund Manager says watch out for what hes calling retail traps. Hell be here to explain after this. Stay tuned. Welcome back to fast money. Two stocks in the Health Care Sector kicking off our top trades. Juno therapeutic sinking as two patients died and eli lily getting hit as a key alzheimers test fails. Is there a vote for juno . Its specific. You can see kite and blue, the way they traded on the day. Shows they voluntarily recalled this trial. Lilly, they failed a trial for alzheimers, which is a massive indication, and i look at biogen and the weakness. Biogen, if you look at it the way that traded today, it shows they have a different subset, a much different indication, if you will. That stock is going to actually do really well. I like biogen but lilly is too early, although it held at 65 level where it really i think just to clarify, biogen also has a potential experimental drug for alzheimers. They have an alzheimers its a different mechanism as the lilly drug, and some people say it should be seen that with lilly gone, thats a competitor out of the market. Phase one trial went very well. So they look at it you can say that, and thats why biogen, in a perfect world, probably would have been up on this news because competition would have been alleviated. Biogen i think will do really well. They have a label update coming up soon, december 4th and after that, allcleared by that stock. Lilly still not cheap. Its been tough sledding for this stock for a long time. Not like lilly was making 52week highs and fell off the cliff today. Its been now a year, yearandahalf since lilly made its alltime high. Valuation to me is still expensive. Alzheimers is a huge deal. It was a huge deal for them. And this phase three miss is clearly not good. The one thing you can take away, it traded about ten times normal volume, which maybe have a shortterm bottom but there are not a lot of catalysts Going Forward but i still think the trajectory is lower. I think you have to measure what this means in terms of relevant earnings and the streets coming out, 5 to 15 right now in terms of the impact of this. So you can throw that on this valuation. And you can make an argument that this stock was overdone. Youve and the problem is, the charters can probably say this is no mans land. You have a decent level back about mid 2014 but still needs to settle in mere. Mark your calendars. The ceo of juno therapeutics, hans bishop. Next up, trump appointed two members to the s. E. C. s Transition Team and could be good news for time warner and at t. Jeffy eisenach and mark jamison both supported at ts attempt to purchase in 2011, even though the deal was blocked. What does this mean for time warner and at t, could there be more big deals under trump than we thought . I think these deals are coming back and you saw people react and they sold off all of the names involved in the deals. You saw them sell off at t, time warner. I think the deals are coming back. I think people said im going to write them off. Its not going to be trump. Or even if it is trump, everyone saw him as being anti this this huge deal right here. I think people have missed it. I think people are going to get back into it. Another huge deal. Monsanto. Im in monsanto. If you look at sessions, who is the attorney general, he is going to be more lenient on these type of deals. There is tremendous up side on all of these mega deals. Steve, wouldnt, though if you look at how at t traded on the announcement of the deal, i mean, on some level, you can make an argument people would like to not see this deal happen. There is certainly some view out there, and look how the stock performed. Not like huh the opposite side of it, time warner, i think that if if this deal gets done that makes sense. Why is at t rallying when, in fact, when this deal was announced, it was seen as a huge negative for that stock. Real quick, not to interrupt. One caveat there was it coincided with rates exploding to the up side. So a lot of people that got into at t for the dividend yield play, i think got out of it, because yields were starting to move the other way. But with that said, i hear what youre saying. I mean, the question is, does it get done. Will there be a big Grass Roots Campaign that essentially goes after it and says, were not going to allow this to go throu through. Did he already squash the at t all this rhetoric goes out of the window, hes backed off so many things already. So i dont think hes going to leave it to the professionals you open this segment up to decide. All right. Still ahead, Warren Buffett actively campaigned against donald trump, but is making a killing after a trump win. How much and why trump could soon be Warren Buffetts new bff. Im melissa lee. Youre watching fast money on cnbc, first in business worldwide. In the meantime, heres what else is coming up on fast. Im going to kill the bear thats exactly what down 19,000 has done to the permabears. So will the biggest bear of all, marc faber, throw in the towel . He will be here. Plus since trump was elected president , golf stocks have been on fire. Well tell you just how long that rally can last when fast money returns. 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You got a mean case of the detox blues. Dont start a war you know youre going to lose. Finally you can now find all of netflix in the same place as all your other entertainment. On xfinity x1. Welcome back to fast money. Another day, another record on wall street. The dow and s p both closing at a new high. The small cap russell is in its longest winning

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