Transcripts For CNBC Fast Money 20170531 : vimarsana.com

CNBC Fast Money May 31, 2017

Act cord cutting to house of cards today, well tell you what he had all of wall street talking. First, a bank worst performing sect sector. Both negative on the year. Check out some of the action, gold man sax, j. P. Morgan down and 3 respectively. Could the banks be the ultimate value track or should investors be buying the dip, tie . There obviously havent been trades, goldman sax is the first one reporting. The contracter the price action since has been miserable, think about it. Since makening an all time high, theyre down over 20 in a couple months on whats been a pretty decent tape. I have been one of these people bullish in the banks, now i have to ask myself, does goldman need to recapture that 225 . Tim talked about this, and j. P. Morgan. 84, critical level. Down again today. The last piece is xlf. I think goldman was terrible. I think they actually that to me will be an explanation why they would be under performing. Fair enough, what goldman franchise is you can argue is unparallelled. J. P. Morgan, if you take a trend line off the june 2016 lows, you can make an argument that today we broke through that trend line. So if you think about it, were right back to where we were two days after the election for financials. The question is, what do you do now . To my, i think those numbers under their bell. I realize weve we heard from the banks, trading volumes are not what they were. The pick business is not what it was. The Second Quarter will not be the First Quarter. The Stifel Nicolaus conference from banc of america, they were in essentially a pre announcement midquarter when j. P. Morgan says, you know, what trading revenue will be down 15 already. We talk about the vix every night, how it had historic lows. You are talking commodities, mixed income. Its been flatline. So it doesnt matter if you have a specialty and someone like goldman may have a specialty. It doesnt matter the volumes and volatility is not there. Add into that, the fact that you have a yield curve, at least on the long end, that seems to be going lower. I have been a person who has wanted to buy the bank but this action coupled with a little oil, which we will talk about has me concerned. I think its important. Im not saying what guys comment is a false narrative about the basque, we all know theyre cheap. We know some continue to carry over book value. Throughout this whole down turn at least in stock prices, look at goldman, they had a bad quarter in trading relative to all their peers, down 2 year over year, when you have j. P. Morgan saying it will be down or it is in the first two months of the quarter, bank of america is staying down 10 to 12 . That probably doesnt bode well for goldman sax, they lost share for all intents and purposes in q1. That is one of the reasons that stock got the hit today. Should we be worried . No, you have to be. The price action suggests you have to be extra worried about it. No question, as i said, down over 20 since that 255 high leads to believe there was something amiss. It wasnt that venezuela an bond deem, there was clearly more than. That j. P. Morgan below 84 is the one that catches my eye, that has been a leader for a long time. Now its starting to roll over as well t. Good news, i go es is, the xls holds the 23 level. You couple goldman, j. P. Morgan, look at Deutsche Bank has down sized, maybe something is brewing once again. I look at j. P. Morgans chart, it looks like a stark discussion today. Key Technical Levels were broken, j. P. Morgan, 78 is your election rally, too much if you get through there, there is a lot of air below that stock. I dont think they take the elevator down. Thats the difference here. You have a high quality company. Imagine we put stops out there, you will see a huge loss on an earnings day. I think ween now and next earnings, i earn jp morgue were, its a diversified earnings profile. Its not the narrative. It was we were going to have deregulation the yield curve flatter taven it was reelection right now. We were going to have an economy where loan goat was going to be better. All this low growth stuff that took the stocks up dramatically, its coming undone the narrative. Dan, the feds will hike probably in a couple weeks. It hiked in march. That interest margins in the First Quarter were better, by the way, theyre not making money priced off the 20 210 i would point i poiout, the fact we talked about this many times, pressure is off the banks. They dont have this lit fashion hanging over them. They dont have the same bulls eye on their back. That to me is still there. Also potentially in the pull side of the argument, in terms of catalyst, results come out, its favorable, they could be anouceing new capital plans here. Here at this jung closure in time. With the pullback in bank stocks. Here we go. Ready to play the game. Whether we put money in banks, show hands . You have money. I have to be true. This caveat, xls above 2003, i think Goldman Sacks into evidence to recapture 225. Its my view most of these banks will roundtrip the entire move from the election. We seen a lot of the trades over the last couple months. I dont think the panic set in just yet. Im kind of hands out right now. Im looking also at the yield curve to see in that reverses as well. What have you been doing through bank tran signifies . Bang of america, j. P. Morgan, citibank, these are best of breed and problem children that benefit the most in an environment where there is not a target on their back. I think citibank is a globe business. Thats to their benefit as we see the other capital markets. Banks are getting crushed. Another group is worse, energy, the next guest says there is even more pain ahead. Lets go off the charts. What are you looking at. Well, i this i the punch line is if you dont have to be here in energy and oil, done be here. One year ago 48. May 31st today you had six declines, averaging 20 down, you also have five advances, unless you are good enough so buy those highs and sell those lows, this is just too difficult for us to play. You have to be too perfect to make money. If we go to the next chart, if not oil, what object the Energy Stocks . Well, all the out performance vs. The s p was made in the First Six Months off the low. So again, if you miss this spot by even a up can him weeks and this is topped by even a couple weeks, you really did everything all the way back over the course of the last several months. To us, thats just too hard, particularly when the biggest weight in the group, exxonmobile is already making new lows. Remember, think back to when oil bottomed last year. Exxon bottomed first, even while oil is going lower. Its the opposite, exxon breaking down. Oil here at 47, 48. We think 40, 42 is in play a. Better buy down there. Dont touch it yet. Dont touch it again. Ouch. Another trip comes over. I think its good, come on over. Bring him over. Thanks to you for bringing the chair why. So this is a terrible trade in your view, we were just discussing banks, that also a terrible trade in your view . I dont think its bad. If you had to choose . If i had to choose, i own banks. Lets put this in historical context. Energy is 15 months off, a 70 decline. Right. Banks are seven, eight years off a decline. They put in more time repairing itself here. There is another difference all the price action, j. P. Morgan, banc of america, citigrourngs all happen up ward sloping 200 day averages t. Bank stocks, the oil stock is not the case. These are down trends, versus up trends. I want to sell strength and down trends, id be more inclined to put money to work here. Citigroup is acting better. It hit a new high, lets keep that one up in mind. Im curious if we look back at oil, we see the 2014, 2016 decline, this looks like a correction of that down trend. Does that then mean we break lower and go below the 2016 low . I think this means no one makes any money for the next number of years. Years . Remember 01, 02, longs an shorts you were frustrated. Banks were frustrated for seven, nine years. Energy is 6 of the s p. If you are spending any more than 25 minutes of your time is too much. This is probably dead money for a long time. There will be tradeable opportunities. There is a couple stocks here and there that look okay. Dont confuse that with secular leadership. It doesnt take a share of the pie here. Chris, why are ten or 11 movers you articulate on the board in both directions, things that dont give you an opportunity . There are a lot of traders out there, realize, this is spot pricing versus the energy moves, why dont you go after that sentiment . I think its crazy both directions. I think if you are good enough to do that, you are confident you can time that perfectly. I found that to be too hard, chris. If you have to be right twice in a short period of time to make money, id rather waste my time somewhere else. Im not sure energy will give us the biggest bank for the bucks. I want to own leader this. Thats not leadership. What are the standout stocks . There are a couple. I think lng, marathon, globally total is one of the better ones. Lets focus on the antienergy, airs, carnivale, thats a stock we want to own in an environment where oil is under pressure. Will you see a Better Success playing those than you will the big oil stocks. If you had to choose, guy. Are we playing would you rather . Lets listen to the lady. Jump it is gun. The menu, marathon, shanear. Can i add a few other names . I give up. Rcl up on the day, all time high, a name we talked about a yearandahalf ago, rcl. Sorry if i changed the rules. Can you myers e first play the game . Thank you. Bottom line, total is one of the names he mentioned. Have you the euro as a tail wind and ultimately a dividend yield that is 4to5 . I think the integrated are ugly. Some are more towards the down stream. Unfortunately, were changing to another game. I will give you the salty one on the desk. He doesnt like that, like mikey. Banks or energy . I actually like tom lee last night was on the program. He did a constratrarian call in stocks. The weakness in the dollar, at some point i think he will get that right from a trading standpoint. I think the xleissue probably have a 10 s pot. Its trading near twoweek lows or near. That could be setting up a rally. What say you . Even though given the choice between the two,ize rather the banks. Because i think they are pretty e better prospects. I am long oil stocks. What concerns me about that, is that my, the whole thieves for getting into it. Saudi arabia was going to control the price. It appears they are losing control of. That that worries me. Why do you hold on to your oil stocks . I am waiting to see what happens. We are in this range. We havent completely broken out of it. I am seeing cracks in my investment thieves. Its not quite a kel set. I think with oils, you have extremes with buying and followup sentiment. Before you go to break. You rich rossd everybody. Nobody picked up on it. You said mikey, like cereal mikey, which is amazing you even knew that existed. I want to give mellissa lee kudos. You know what happened to mikey . We lost him. Im not looking that up. Thats not my story. Tesla ceo elon musk might be taking a step back from President Trump in the white house. The stock is on a tear sense the elect. Will a dustup with the president change all that neighborhood, plus, streaming profits dropped on netflix. Something else could send the stock into overdrive. We got those details. Come over here, tim seymour, stepping up to the plate, she has the one name on a sixday losing streak he says is providing a perfect buying opportunity. That stock when fast money returns. See inside patients, can also detect early signs of corrosion at our refineries. Hightech military cameras that see through walls, can inspect our pipelines to prevent leaks. Remotecontrolled aircraft, can help us identify potential problems and stop them in their tracks. At bp, safety is never being satisfied. And always working to be better. Hey ron theyre finally taking down that schwab billboard. Oh, not so fast, carl. Oh no. Schwab, again . Index investing for that low . Thats three times less than fidelity. And four times less than vanguard. Whats next, no minimums . No minimums. Schwab has lowered the cost of investing again. Introducing the lowest cost index funds in the industry with no minimums. I bet theyre calling about the schwab news. Schwab. A modern approach to wealth management. Kel bam back to fast money. President trumps possible crawl from the paris accord striking a wrong accord. Reporter hi, mellissa, we saw dualing fists between the president and elon musk t. President tweeted despite the media report that said he had already made up his mind. He has not made up his mind and will be announcing the decision over the next several days. That prompted a tweet from elon musk earlier today. He said, dont know which way paris will go, but ive done all i can toed a voice directly to potus, through others in white house and via councils that we remain, that the United States remain inside those paris accords. He was asked by a follower on twitter, what would he do if the president decided to pull out of the paris accords . Elon musk tweeting we will have no choice but to depart councils in that case. He means multiple white house advisory councils, by our count he is on three of President Trumps, including the manufacturing count sim the Infrastructure Council and others. Hes been a valued person giving input here at the ceo level to this white house over the past six months or so. Today, though, i asked sean spicer the white house pressing is, how do they consider elon musk now . He a trusted adviser on this issue and others . Sean spicer said simply, look the president is getting a lot of input from a lot of people on this. Thats howl we will say. Elon musk certainly sending a signal that hell withdraw from those councils if the president decides to pull the United States out of the paris accord. It will be interesting to see whether or not other ceos follow suit, not necessarily on the paris akrord agreement, perhaps to others near and dear to those ceos hearts in the future. Reporter elon musk has taken a lot of criticism from democrats and liberals from working with the trump administration, a lot of folks said you shouldnt work with trump at all . He said, no, im a moderate, i need to be in the room. If you are a political moderate or a liberal, you want me in that room. Now he is threatening to walk out of the room. Thank you. Tesla shares up 75 sense trump was elected. So musk withdraws from the count sim, what could that mean for tesla shares . He certainly has been the posterchild in terms of what everything trump lovers, manufacturing, tech lo knowledge cal advances, hiring. I dont think thats been behind the tesla rally. I think its been a part of the story. Clearly the tesla rally has been about shifting into higher gear of the autonomous driving story, ever intrinsic value. I think thats the reason why people are on tesla. Not because hes flooded the zone. I dont think anybody necessarily sold tesla because he was working with President Trump. I think its probably a tailwind here, if anything, but the story still remains that this is a play on the decarbonization electric grid. I dont love your covfefe on thisp toic. I want to be clear. Is is that how you are announcing it . Thats how were doing it. Is that friend snch. So heres the deal, this stock is up 80 from the day elon muck walked into the tower december 2nd. Adisagree with you to some degree, they named all the things that tesla represents that wasnt in line with the president s message, there is other things like science that theyre kind of at odds about, stuff like that. To me, i actually think a lot of investors thought this was a great move to get this Administration Online f. He glows off the train. What other trump trades have gone off the rails . Theyve held the lines. I think this is a pretty special one. We can all agree on that. I wouldnt disagree on that. This company is not more special. Its not only the most shiniest special thing on the planet right now. What about facebook . Actually, technologically what they are doing for society the most disinteresting things going on in the world. To you. Really . Yeah. Okay. Im long tesla, i dont know if its the shiniest thing on earth. I think maybe dans point, maybe the point is that actually the Technology Tesla is working on can fundament ally clang how we live where can that change how we live . Im not ought facebook, no it hasnt but then dan agrees with me. Were getting back to why tesla dont put words in my mouth, lets be track. Dan you said it, its a shiny little what . More options action. Oh. What was active today, call volume was oneandahalf that of puts. What is interesting is mark cap today, a lot of that call buying was in shortdated calls. The june 2nd weekly, 12,000 o. 340s and 350 call trades, i think there are a lot of that, somebody for a move 240 up to 350 between now and the end of the week. That performance is up 85 since december 2nd. Look at this chart right here. This is this uptrend that has been in here. Obviously the brakeout level was above 295ish. 200 seems to be a good level of support. That uptrend and this move is parabolic its basically gone up 40 in a week here. I want to go back to the june 2010 ipo of this thing. Just giving you a sense, some of these people, you know, you are pretty happy how the thing has traded. You got to physical out where there is support. That level is down to 295ish. Guy. Actually its more 285ish. That itself core level. I dont want to mince words here. Dan said a lot is due to trump. The rally from that listen coincidentally the major support when President Trump was elected. That was a level we flagged way back when. So whether it happened whether he was elected or not. I dont know. But you can still see tesla in a pulled market even if it pulse back to that 285ish level dan flacked. Watch the full show friday 5 30 eastern time. Coming up, palo alto has been sinking in the last two years, down 20 , sitting out this years market rally a. Former ceo laneen bess says he has more to sound offer. I am mellissa lee, you are watching fast money on cnbc. Heres whats coming up on fast. Ceo Reed Hastings says there is one tech company thats downright scary and could stand in their way. Well hear from him. Plus, tim is serving up theich , different whack he says is the hot et deck stock to own right now t. Name queen fast money returns. [ birds chirping ] [ inhales, exhales ] [ announcer ] cigarettes are not just dangerous when theyre smoked. [ rat squeaking ] theyre dang

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