That this market cannot bounce to safe its life. Each time it tries, sellers come in and push it back down. Much of that now has to do with oil, which was up nearly 4 today. Only to drop on that inventory data. Take stocks right with it. I think thats the biggest question now, joe. Why cant stocks in a tremendously over sold market catch a bounce . You just answered the question. It is about oil. The last two sessions weve had bullish activity as you approach the close that kind of lifted the market away from that potential overnight whoosh you would get. We keep talking about it from 2014. It doesnt mean the stock market cant have a bounce before doing that . The stock market listen, the market have very oversold. If Oil Stabilizes and if Jeffrey Gundlach is correct that yesterday of as shortterm low in oil, then, yes, we could have a bounce, but i dont think its sustainable. I dont think theres one thats going to reverse a lot of the negative price akt action that we have had not just this month, but also in november and december. Jimmy. Can i just point out that this is the theired day that the futures were up before the open. We opened up and then they trailed off. The last two days we have ended up in the green. This pattern is the third day in a row. Lets see how the afternoon goes. Its exactly the reason why i wanted to ask that very question at the top of the show stoed. Stwloo you get an a, a gold star . Looked like it could be a bounce kind of a day. Evaporate brz we even come on the air at noon. Part of this is that most of the trading is done in the first half hour and the last half hour. Im not going to point fingers. High frequency trading has something to do with that, but thats a factual statement. Im not going to say it doesnt matter. It does. Its the last hour, last half hour have you to Pay Attention to. There are the charts from the last three days. You do get late day moves. The market seems right for some kind of bounce. Just given the oversold nature of it. It cannot it cant sustain. As a matter of fact, we got a lead today because when you started off the day they started off strong. They were pulling off before the market had actually started to follow along with that, and that was really something of a sell, tell. That was very interesting. We havent talked about this for a while, but weve traded at an elevated volatility for quite some time now. Weve been in the low to mid 20s now for what seems like the start of this entire year. Thats well above the 50, the 200 day moving averages. When you are looking at that, at what point in time can we start to see the volatility actually ever crack and move to the down side . Even on these days where we are up 10, 15, 20 points in the s p. Yes, the volatility. The sentiment has changed, and people believe in the rallies. Jp morgan and others. And rbs. Rbs. That is sell any bounce. What it feels like have you to me is this battle between growth scare, like tom lee says, or recession, like some of the most negative people on the street say this year. Bull, bear, and right now people either cant decide what to do so theyre in the middle or theyre leaning more bearish. Thats why theyre selling into any bounce we get. Theyre leaning more bearish, tapping the big fang stocks that all of us talk about all the time. Net flex, google, amazon. All of those open at or near their highs of the day. Thats the 1 last night kind of flavor. Its down 20 from its high. This is of the day. People are obviously using those as the piggy bank. Theyre tapping those saying let me get out of the way of whats going on here. You had, of course, the Nuclear Action last week whether it was hydrogen or atomic, judge. Either way kim junk un is rattling the saber over there, and thats not good. Youve got the inventories chshgs we talked about already both last week and this week. Thats not good. You still have fisher out there saying four more, and i dont think the market is very happy about four more. The headline i had from you today is what you should be buying in the selloff. My question is maybe nothing. I dont know. Whats wraur answer to that question . Im not going to try to sound like pauliana here. Lets look at the facts. The market is down 5 this year. Weve had times in the past where it dropped 5 to 10 . The majority of those times, the market has a positive year. In 2008 it didnt. You can look at 2009 as an example, and it did. We have a Market Selling for 15 times earnings. If you take those fankz out, youre 14 times earnings. It drops another 5 , which is possible. I think the market is going to be attractive, and when earnings start to come in, and well see some that are good and some very obviously such as Energy Companies that are not, there would be opportunities. Why cant the market get a bounce or whats going to cause a bounce. Maybe it is earnings. Theres the outlook. Aint good. Obviously eps expected to be down along with revenue as estimates continue sort of im just going to point out were getting earnings news already. We had gm come out today and raise guidance. Thats very positive. Its both positive on the u. S. Where people have worried about peak autos, and its positive on china where theyve been selling cars very well. Youre also going to start to hear noise about apple, and i know a day doesnt go by without us talking about it, but theyve sold more iphones in china than people expected. The point im driving at with this is its earnings. Earnings could be positive. To have meaningful down side, you will have to see a recession. You brought this up a second ago. I dont see any indication. You dont have to. What happens if the meaningful down side takes you into a recession . Who knows . Why do you have to have a recession precede big down side. At the least i would say they correlate together. With the jobs growth you are still looking at Something Like a six handle for growth there. Theres too much going in the Positive Side of the ledger for me to believe were on the cusp of a recession. If im looking at this market going down and i do feel like the 5 pullback in what may end up being a 6 to 8 pullback. Which ones do you specifically see . There are a few names that we like right now, and many of them are in the consumer space, but not necessarily. Ill give you one thats not, which is american tower. American tower, its a little bit of a controversial name because its not just domestic. About onethird of the revenue comes from overseas. Particularly latin america and africa. You go latin america, oh, my god, why there is this theres a lot of growth. The sell market continues to improve and grow in terms of what people do on their mobile devices. Its not just communication. Its data. Its banking. Its business transaction. This is a place you can get . Growth, and theres cash flow that is building double digits. You say you are buying apple althese levels. More of it. Youve already been a shareholder. Right. Hasnt been great. You have the ability to grow that double digits. You would think that was an attractive stock, right . Yes. Thats why its an attractive stock. I appreciate it. Doesnt have to be apple. Theres one other point i would like to make. Please. We looked at this the other day. Everyone likes statistics, and you guys like to play odds. If you think of what the odds makers say of the likelihood that a woman, hillary clinton, will be the president. Its about 70 right now. We looked at developed countries. Im not saying shes im just taking the odds. You talk about developed countries where a woman has won the presidency, prime minister, chancellorship, and whats happened in that year in that market. There have been seven days e cases in the past 20 years. Of course, not the United States. We havent had one. Seven cases, including germany. Markets gone up an average of 9. 4 . Its interesting. Lady luck. Youre saying we should be pulling for hillary. I dont know. Im just saying those are the stats. Use them however you want. I appreciate it very much. Thanks so much. For more on todays biled moves in the oil patch, lets go to jackie deangeles at the nymex. Jackie, you are at the center of the story seemingly every day. Good afternoon, scott. The volatility continues. This was an ugly number reported by the department of energy today. We had a surprise build in crude oil inventories, and then we had that massive build in gasoline inventories as well. Barrels are barrels, whether its crude or gasoline, and theyre piling up. The problem here is one of over supply. The refiners are taking this cheaper oil. The refiners are refine it into product. Theres no demand out there, and that took the wind out of the sails of this crude oil rally this morning. Seven Straight Days of losses so far. Equity markets aplay here as well. Crude has wanted to run out of the gate here. Especially after touching that intraday low yesterday of 29. 93. The reality of the headlines, they diverge. The market divest jest this is news,and they go lower. Who knows . Jackie, thank you. Jackie deangeles. Some of the hardest hit energy names are continuing their selloff today. We highlighted Freeport Mcmoran and williams for you yesterday. They just had a terrible go of it in this early part of the year. That slide continues. Williams down another 14 . Theres freeport mac down another 7. Joe console is down 12. A lot of the energy names are now facing the type of selloff that were witnessing. The strategy right now is a patient strategy, and there are indicator that is you want to watch. You obviously need oil to stabilize. The market is not going to find its bottom when you continue to have leadership from utilities and consumer staples. Keep in mind, the best month that we have had in the equities market over the last four was october. In october you came into the month with u. S. Ten hadyear treasury below 2 . You saw yields rise 35 basis points. They have fallen once again. The u. S. Tenyear treasury has to begin to see yields rise once again for stocks to go up sfwloosh coming up, car conundrum. Despite record sales, auto stocks are stubbling in a rut. They are giving money back to shareholders, and thats good news for activist investor harry wilson. He joins us with his latest thoughts on gm and the moves. Mrushgs upgrades from qualcomm and microsoft. Downgrade, though, for American Express. Well debate the calls of the day coming up. And making bank. The fund manager who is actually making money in the financials. Up nearly 20 . The group is down 7 in the past year. Anton unveils the stock picks that got him there. Youve watching cnbc, first in business worldwide. In new york state, we believe tomorrow starts today. All across the state the economy is growing, with creative new business incentives, and the lowest taxes in decades, attracting the talent and companies of tomorrow. Like in the hudson valley, with world class biotech. And on long island, where great universities are creating next generation technologies. Let us help grow your companys tomorrow, today at business. Ny. Gov phil lebeau has the very latest. Phil. Scott, the quo of the day cams to us center swrimy who says there is a substantial disconnect between how General Motors views its business and its outlook and what investors are expecting. Heres a prime example. This morning gm raised its guidance for 2016, raising its eps guidance by 25 cents a share. Now to arrange between 525 and 575. Going into today, the average estimate on wall street was for 5. 43 a share. General motors has made a substantial increase in its stock buyback program. Extending it out through 2017 and, oh, by the way, the quarterly dif debbed, its also been increased by 6 and it will pay out at 36 cents a share. Its about why investors have no love at all for the traditional auto stocks. A number of investors will either email me, tweet at me, or say to me as im walkinging around, hey, when is google or apple coming out with a car . I really want to see how the industry is going to change. Theyre not interested in record sales for pickup trucks for this one behind me or the fact that General Motors is coming off one of its most profitable years ever. I think people are missing the point that the selfdriving cars, theyre a way off. Theyre not coming next year. A lot of things have to happen before theyre here. Thats part of the disconnect between how investors are looking at the auto stocks and what the Auto Companies are doing right now. Youre having a record year for auto sales. When you look at the performance of both gm and ford you throw your hands up in the air, and you say how is that possible . Why is that happening . Thats the kind of thing that were going to talk to harry wilson about. Thank you so much from the auto show. Well talk to you again soon. In fact, lets bring in harry wilson. It was early last year when the activist investor tangled with General Motors over its buyback before eventually reaching a settlement with that company, chairman of the group joining us now on the phone. Elts a cnbc exclusive. Welcome. Its nice to see you or talk to you, at least. First of all, they raised their guidance. Increased the dividend and buyback. I think the team did a good job in preventing the progress they made in 2015 as well as what they expect in 2016. Theyre still growing margin this is year. I think that i hope and expect that the revised guidance will prove to be conservative. Its a big step up from where they were in 2015. What about this disconnect that i think you probably heard phil lebeau talk about a moment ago. Youre having great auto sales. Yet, these stocks cant get out of their own way. Why . No, its frustrating for a lot of us who are shareholders. I would say really it comes down to two major issues. One is concerns about the cycle when what that means for the company. Secondly, longterm macroview that phil alluded to in terms of google and uber and others. I think the thing that most investors are missing is how fudgesly different this business is than it was precrisis. Its going to make by its own projections 525 and 575 and 2016. I think the cycle saw a little bit of up side, and even if you believe thats peak sales, they certainly have margin up side. Its what happens when sales start to decline. Two pieces to that. The first i believe the sales will be at a prolonged network for a meaningful period of time. Largely because we an 11 1 2yearold fleet. I think youll see prolonged sales at higher levels, and even if we were to retreat through midcycle sales and the 15, 16 level we have a lot of street analysts in the 3 to 4 range. Even in the recessionary environment. If you believe they make 3 to 4 in a recession, makes fiveish midcycle and maybe up to six or more at the peak of the cycle, and you look at the current valuation, it just looks xwred reply cheap. On the second piece of it, on the macroside, first, i think phil is right. The opportunities and risks are both opportunities and risks. People are still misjudging it. Google just yesterday was at the auto show and talking about how there are lots of partners and looking at the car opportunity, which i think is huge. Its very important considerations strategy eejly. Its still going to you still have partners, including the traditional players. The last piece is i think another thing people are missing is that people look at uber and rightsharing and say this will lead to less car sales. It may lead to fewer car sales to urban consumers. You actually see more cars being sold because cars can only go so many miles in their lifetime. On the news of upping the buyback, and its not an insignificant amount of money, harry, by any stretch. I mean, theyre nearly double it from five to nine. You have a lot of concerns out there about global growth. Is it even prudent to allocate that kind of money to a buyback or increasing the dividend at a time when you have a growing number of voices talking about a recession in the United States . Look, i think its critically important this be prudent and well have even with that expanded buyback, which is effectively 4 billion in 2017. Thats not what they already committed to. Free cash flow for 67. It will still have in their expectations 2 billion or 3 billion in excess cash flow, bought thats on top of a 20 billion cash balance, which was specifically set up to protect themselves against a recessionary environment. Not just any recession, but 20082009 style recession. Theyve already got more than enough cushion to get through a horrible downturn, and theyll add to that cushion by giving back four of the six to seven that they forecast in Free Cash Flow in 2017. I appreciate you coming into the phone. Big news today. Definitely wanted to get your input on it, considering you tangled with General Motors not all that long ago. Doc, you have a thought . Well, yeah. When we break down the numbers and you look through them everybody says why isnt ford running or General Motors running with these fabulous numbers and so forth, and one of the obvious reasons is we started the show with. If you are looking at the possibility of four more hikes, dollar higher or dollar lower on that, dollar higher mean. Whats the profit margin to meet sales growth . Were talking about the performance over longer than a oneyear period. Zoo took 27 of my marge you know away with the move in the dollar, and are you going to do more not 27 this year, but are you going to do more this ye year. The steady drumbeat of good news thats coming out, last week they announced that chooirn sales were much, much better than anyone expected. There comes a point in time where it cant be ignored anymore. I cant say exactly when, but it should be this year. One argument i would have, scott last comment. Pricing power. A couple of regional on the outside. They have incredible Pricing Power, which is why now the federal government wants to step down on them again. Youre 100 right. We were just talking about the comparison and Single Digits and growth and all the rest of this. Not Pricing Power i dont know that the autos do. I have to come back on this. Its really what you are taking as the old story. Now, theres always incentives, but average selling prices have been going up, up, up. Theyre selling trucks and suvs. Yes, low oil prices help. Youre right to draw the distinction between airlines and the comparison im making is when you have deep cyclical stocks, stocks that trade at single pes, and you know theyre not supposed to, its just a matter of time. Real quick where. I think sentiment is your