Thats where we stand now. It is red across the board. Turn your attention to the far right of the screen. That remains the story. Crude oil down 5 , joe, giving back gains we got last week. Are you sticking to your call that last wednesday, around this very time, was the bottom in stocks and crude . Shortterm bottom, yes. And i am sticking to that. About 1 30 in the morning, a call comes out with news regarding not pulling back on cap ex that sends crude lower. A pullback in oil. I think there is a tradeable rebut coming. I think youre going to have where youve had absolutely no tail winds, the Federal Reserve is going to give some tail winds this week. I think the buybacks returning in early february gives you some tail winds. Were going to get some Companies Reporting here in the next week or so that i like. Kenny, on the floor. Are you a believer . Like joe . Or no . Listen, i am a believer that i dont think its going to completely collapse, but i absolutely think we are going to test lower again. Im liking this 1850, 1900 trading range on the s p. What did it change . Other than Mario Andretti coming out. Whoever is jaw boning a little bit. In the end, what has changed in terms of the overall fundamentals. What has changed with the oil story, with the economy story in this country. Not a lot. And jim, maybe if nothing has changed, maybe it was overdone on the other side. Maybe not. Maybe there is more pain to come. Are you a believer in a bottom of last week . Or you still think were going lower, and potentially substantially so . Number one, im a believer. Number two, that doesnt mean we go up in a straight line. There may be some giveback. I think last week was the bottom. One thing i have to say here, im waiting for the disconnect between equity markets and crude oil. The connection between the two of them, the correlation, is based on the belief that this is a demand problem, that there isnt enough Economic Activity to support oil prices. I think its quite the opposite, an oversupply condition, which is so positive for consumers, the equities should be rallying on the news that oil is lower. Of we havent seen that yet. Im waiting for that. That will confirm this rally. What about these assets under management, where are you putting them to work, if anywhere . I like where the market is now and i think there will be opportunity. I do disagree with the folks here. I think we retest and there is no catalyst now other than if the fed says something which everybody will say there will be a short term blip. But longer term, im with jim. I think the positives of oil, so supplydriven at this point, has such a long tail wind for the consumer for an economy dependent on the consumer. So its a debate. We retest or dont. The first three weeks of january, you have to remember, everything is algorithmically based. A lot of passive investing, money not being allocated. Whats happening here the next couple weeks, youre finally getting some things that could be the catalyst. You point out the Federal Reserve. They could bring some language and verbally walk the u. S. Dollar a little bit lower. Lets say the fed this week says, you know what, march is unlikely. Just because the market turmoil whats going to happen . I dont think they would say that. But i think in their language they could say it in their own way. They would send a message to the market. What happens to the stock market. First question, what happens to the u. S. Dollar. The u. S. Dollar, i think, would correct. First off, i dont think theyre going to say that. Its too soon, even though this volatility has been very painful. I dont think its enough to get them to reverse course which is what that would be doing. Later in the year, they might. But heres another catalyst were not paying attention to. Earnings have actually been coming in okay. In fact, a little better than okay. And were really just this week getting into the heart of earnings. So lets see how apple does. Lets see how some of the industrials like boeing or caterpillar does. Lets see how qualcomm does, and next week even more earnings. Those could be very positive catalysts. Kenny, how much is hanging on what apple reports and more importantly perhaps what the company has to say about conditions in china and its overall business . Listen, i think theyre going to pay very close attention to what they say about asia and china and whats going on over there. And i think theres a short term trade based on how apple reports. But, you know, to jims point, or everyone elses point, i dont think the fed says march or june my sense, it was more of a june story than a march story anyway. I dont think so many people are expecting a march increase. I think she very well could talk the markets through the first quarter, well into the second quarter, and thats going to fuel this rally that they have that you guys have all been talking about. If you think the Stanley Fisher ballpark of four potential hikes this year is real, then youve got to get on some time. I dont think its real at all. No way. Look at the financials. The financials are acting like there is no rate coming. They have compressed their multiples, 20 down for the year. So if the market actually believed rates were going up, you would see that sector performing. The world is digesting whether there is going to be a recession here in the United States. While having that debate, youre not going to have four rate hikes. If you think a recession is coming, you sell now, because the s p is going to 1600. If you think the u. S. Is able to avoid a recession, then whether its 1800, 1815 or 1900, your buys 12 months from now are good ones. If you look at the compression on cyclicals are we testing your waiting . Im buying stocks because multiples on auto parts, airlines, industrials, all come down to a recession. To financials. Were trading like were in a recession. Kenny, dovish from the fed this week does what to the stock market . I think the market goes higher. Just like mario did last week. He was fairly dovish and look what happened. Europe exploded, asia, and the u. S. Rallied on the back of it. I dont think it can sustain, right . Half the s p 500 stocks are already in bare market territory. Down more than 20 . So is there value there . I think there is value there. Especially if you think that this is going to turn around in the second half of the year. Well, depends maybe what oil does. Kenny, thanks, as always. From the floor. Well talk to you soon. Lets get the oil story from the nymex. Jackie deangelis has that story. Good afternoon. The declines are increasing, trading just over 30 a barrel. And as your guests have pointed out, that has come back to the supply demand story. Remember, the action we saw late last week was shortcovering, not necessarily new buyers in the marketplace. And today were seeing a little bit of a selloff, thats because iraq is back at its record production levels here in the United States. Were still over 9. 2 Million Barrels a day. Not a record, but still fairly high and increasing on a weekly basis. On the demand side of things, were looking at demand to be flat to slightly higher this year. Everyone is still worried about the china story on the sidelines there. And exxonmobil is out saying were going to see a 25 demand blip. By 2040. Still a while away. When it comes back to the dynamics of this market, there still could be pressure to the down side. I also want to note the dollar is a big part of this trade as well. All eyes on the fed on wednesday. And thats why there is a little bit more of a cautious tone here. Scott . Yep, jackie, thank you so much. Joe, we continue to watch where oil goes moment by moment to decide whether the stock market is going to be up or whether its going to be down. Yeah, thats going to stay with us for a little bit. And while were doing that, natural gas oriented E P Companies are quietly leading the s p higher. Natural gas is not experiencing what oil has, whether cabin oil in gas, rrc, swn. Theyre higher, 5 to 10 on the year. Our folks have been crunching the numbers to try to get to where the correlation between stocks and crude is like 100 . Eric chemmy is here, one of our own. Good to see you. You have looked at this. Not that its breaking new ground saying the market is trading in lockstep with oil. But what did you find . Thats right. Its almost at 100 . Looking at the 20day and 50day. 96 and 90 . It cant go any higher, rate . And when we looked at what happened in the past, generally correlations spike up when they both go down. And what broke the correlation, almost in every case we analyzed, s p started to go back up. Oil didnt necessarily go back up. So there you go in the last year, were basically at the maximum end of the chart. This wasnt the case any time in the last year. You have to go back four years before the 20day and the 50day for both. And there is your evidence that a lot of whats going on in the first three weeks of the year is all algorithmically based. Youve got funds and not just on the active management side, its on the passive side as well. They recognize the correlations, while they work. They play the momentum with the correlations. The machines are locked into them. Once they dont work, well find another correlation. But the evidence tells you, thats what is going on rights now. As oil goes down, liquidations from sovereign funds. This is liquidity, the easiest. Tell me what breaks the correlation, then. U. S. Dollar. What breaks it . U. S. Dollar. Thats the key to the whole thing right now. I think there is actually a secondary effect, youve got to see retail sales coming up. Thats if you believe, as i do, this is an oversupply condition, it should be positive for consumers. So far in the last year, since we have had lower energy prices, we havent seen retail sales pick up at all. There has been all this talk about experience buying and things like that. I really think you need to see outright purchases with extra money consumers are saving. You havent seen it yet. Last word. There is another chart we have showing at 2 30 every day when oil closes the concession trading, stocks starting to back up. Theyre only in line until 2 30 and then people try to break out of the psychological impact. There it is rights there. Thank you so much. Eric chemmy. Coming up, flying the cooperate. Twitter execs fleeing the company, and now a bullish analyst throws in the towel with a downgrade today. What will turn twitter around. Plus, mcdonalds or chipotle. Were going to debate which is the more appetizing for your portfolio at their current prices. And caterpillar under pressure after a down graid grade to sell. Youre watching cnbc, first in business worldwide. We want to hear your crowd noise. Tweet us halftimereport. More halftime after this. Theres a lot of places you never want to see 7. 95. [ beep ] but youll be glad to see it here. Fidelity where smarter investors will always be. If only the signs were as obvious when you trade. Fidelitys active trader pro can help you find smarter entry and exit points and can help protect your potential profits. Fidelity where smarter investors will always be. Performance. Reimagined. Style. Reinvented. Sophistication. Redefined. Introducing the allnew lexus rx and rx hybrid. Agile handling. Available 12. 3inch navigation screen and panorama glass roof. Never has luxury been this expressive. This is the pursuit of perfection. We are back with our call of the day, and it is twitter downgraded to hold from buy. Scott debit is the analyst and says the recent departures of Key Executives are not a positive for the companys turnaround story. What do you guys on the desk make of this what appears to be just a continuing mess . Stocks down another, i dont know what it is, 4, 5 today . I think youve got to look at twitter and say how are they going to make money down the road and thats what everybody is trying to figure out. You have facebook, amazon, google. Until you can prove that you have a model that can make money, this stock is not going up. I would really like to know if they were fired or if they left of their own accord. Thats not clear yet. If they left of their own accord, these are four rather senior people, including the head of hr. That would indicate some sort of some sort of rot in the system that these guys really wanted to jump overboard before it gets worse. That would be troubling. Defrt makes the point, how can you have highprofile departures when youre supposed to be in the middle of a turn around. Hes like were not the sharpest tools in the shed but we dont see how thats a positive. We downgraded, sorry. Ill make the analogy yahoo . I dont mean to interrupt you. He upgraded after q3 results to a buy. He was on the train and now is off. All their Senior Executives have been leaving over time. So at the end of the day, at least yahoo has a colonel, value for their sights. That is still being debated, joe. The yahoo example is the one that jumps out clearly to me. Executive departures, in the middle of a turnaround. Investors dont know what to make of it, and thus the first reflex is to sell. So the business is in the midst of a turnaround . Did i miss something . I think theyre attempting to. Whats the turnaround . It gets boring saying the same thing over and over again but i think for a year weve had this conversation. Of i still wouldnt buy twitter. I dont think the Business Model is properly aligned with growing revenue. Even at 17 bucks . Even at 17 bucks nobody on the desk is telling me your head of engineering. Finally worthy. Down 25 this year alone its not going completely down the toilet. One of the key operational positions, head of engineering, head of media. How do you replace those with enough talent and enough backing to really keep this moving forward . I dont see it. Its not even how do you replace them. Its how do you not recognize that a very troublesome time for your corporation, you need to reinvest in your important employees. Thats the dynamic of what you have to do. You have to retain your intellectual capital. How do you allow them to leave . On the other side, how do you attract talent now to say weve got a ship that is potentially sinking. You guys dont think the risk at this point is more to the up side than the down side from the share perspective . Its already come down so much. Youre going to get some new board members. What happens if and maybe it becomes a growing crescendo that dorsey cannot run both square and twitter, he needs to make up his point, because Neither Company appears to be performing well, relative to what their stocks have done. Thats the performance well judge it by. Because thats how investors are judging performance. Whats to say he doesnt go with square in that condition . You know, square the stock hasnt performed well, but the business is doing better than twitter is, and then you have to look for another ceo in addition to the four positions that just left. There is risk to the down side here. The one good thing i will say about twitter, ive said all along, twitter is the ultimate realtime news feed. Once that is recognized and they are able to monetize the value, then its time to buy twitter. Financials will shift to that discussion, among the worst performers today. Dom chu has those details. Good afternoon, scott. Even though the earnings season and the big banks are just about over, theyre continuing those big banks to be a big focus for traders because the down draft is getting worse. Some are actually hitting fresh multiyear lows. Now on the money center or aka, the big bank side of things, bank of america is on that list. Among the regional banks, check out comerica, and sun trust hitting fresh multiyear lows as well. The move is helping to push financials to become the secondworst performing sector in the s p 500 yeartodate, down 12 . To put it in perspective, thats worse than the Energy Sector in 2016. The only sector performing worse in the financials right now, guys, materials. So financials, the second biggest, and s p weigh in big this year. Back to you, scott. Thank you. Dom chu. Are you surprised that the financials cant get out of their way . Cant get out of their own way. I can understand with the big financials, yes, because they have so many other things. But the regional banks still lending, consumer strong, housing strong, auto strong that was a trade a lot people got into the end of last year thinking rates would go up four times. Its probably not going to happen. Thats the only reason you would buy a financial stock because the Net Interest Margin alone, that is it . I would buy because i like them, because their Balance Sheets are strong, good dividends and really good businesses now. Im talking about the regional banks here. But i think what happened was you had a really crowded trade, and thats probably coming out right now. Joe, you have liked the regionals. No more . No, i dont think you can like them here. Unfortunately right now, an economy appears to be contracting somewhat, and youre not having that interest margins going their way. I think you have to look at the transaction on the financial side in terms of our industry. You have to look at the exchanges. I. C. E. , cme outperforming yeartodate. And it goes back to the ability to market, make a volatile market and theyre doing well also. Im going to take the contrarian view here. Right now this is pricing in about one fed rate hike this year, also a growth scare here that is not i dont think playing out. Certainly not here in the u. S. These things have been beaten down way more than they should have been. And i see catalysts for more Economic Growth and even two rate hikes will propel the stocks higher. Coming up, josh brown catches some rays down in florida right now. Hes attending the biggest etf con inference in the world. There he is. Were going to go live for the inside scoop with the movers and shakers in that 2 trillion business. Plus, two dow stocks, American Express, and cat are on the move. Those stories ahead in the trader blitz. When a wildfire raged through elkhorn ranch, the sudden loss of pasture became a serious problem for a family business. 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