Transcripts For CNBC Fast Money Halftime Report 20160624 : v

CNBC Fast Money Halftime Report June 24, 2016

Pressure, and currently down 8. 4 , and yesterday, 1. 50 and 1. 36, and the euro is similarly reacting as people are getting a look at the euro project, and gold is a trade higher, and crude is at 7. 91, and so at this hour, really, for what you should do with your portfolio, jim lebenthal, and josh brown and jon najarian, and joining us is a jpmorgan global strategist. And sara eisen is on the ground on the day after this historical vote. Simon, the destiny has been voted on outside of the eu, and today, the people are expressing surprise and shock, because they had originally voted to stay in the, u while a majority of england did not. The final tally is 52 of brits decided to vote out of the eu, and 48 decided to stay in, and i have a bunch of paper here, and sort of the late edition late papers that really reflect what a historic day this is, and maybe a new day in the uk, and many of them are calling june 23rd, yesterdays referendum day independence day, and this is the daily mirror, and we are out with the british voter on the british flag, and lot of people celebrating sort of the nationalism that the daily express, historic day for britain, and up here at the top, they have 65. 1 Million People, and that is the British Population that was announced yesterday, and of course, the paper editorializing just as we told you that the uks population out of control with a picture of a lot of people sort of suggesting that the immigration problem, and the immigration of the migrants from the rest of the eu which faced a lot of backlash here in the uk and one reason that we are seeing the emotional reason for why the brits voted out of the eu. And of course, the Guardian Newspaper leads with David Cameron, the british Prime Minister facing a fight for survival and we know how that fight is going to be ending, and before the brits woke up this morning, David Cameron reported that he would resign, and needed fresh leadership, and he poured the heart and soul into the campaigning of voting out of the eu and he said that a new person and new Prime Minister is going to have to lead the uk when it comes to negotiations with the eu, and a great deal of certainty has to point out that no country has ever voted to leave the e nushgs the sixdecade history and not the least of which is the second Biggest Country within the eu, and the uncertainty is coming down to what is going to happen between brussels which is the Head Quarters of the european commission, and with the uk, and the leaders this weekend will be scrambling ahead of the already scheduled meeting on tuesday and wednesday in brussels for all 28 members of the European Union and the question is does the uk vote or decide to trigger article 50 of the lisbon treaty of a previously set rule in 2007 which would start the twoyear clock on negotiating out, and that is everything like budget negotiations and the rules of migration, and the taxes and trade deals, and so it is unchartered territory, and we continue to wait for the reaction from the politicians, the markets, and of course, the betting odds and the polls all getting it wrong in the leadup here. Back the, you simon. Thank you, sarah. And now we are focusing on what it means for your money, and Alan Greenspan had this to say earlier on cnbc. This is the worst period i recall since i have been in public service. There is nothing like it with the crisis of the october 19, 1987 when the dow went by a record percent down, and that is what i thought was the bottom of all potential problems. This has a crow zi effect which is not easy to go away. And of course, what greenspan is referring to is the concern that the european project could unravel. He is also worried about the longer term entitlement ss and e productivity and wages, and john n this environment, when you hear the bigger warnings, it is a buying opportunity, and can you take it at face value . It would be buying opportunity, and would be right now overseas and not a buying opportunity right here in my mind yet, because we came off of the bottom so quickly. I was looking for and i think that if anybody had dry powder, and they basically said im going to wait for the brexit vote, and then commit the capital, they are do not doing it on a down 300 day, simon or the down 400 day, but looking for the blood in the streets, so i think that somebody would be prudent rather than scrambling in and saying, well, a 2 decline in this stock or the in facebook or the apple, and this is not at all like it was last summer. And what did you do . What have you done today . I took the profits on gold, which is, and i didnt think that it would be my best trade, but gold outperformed the vix and the uvxy and the put, and these are bets i had into the brexit vote putting them on thinking that the spdr puts or the volatility would be the best performing, but no, gold made a 7 move like that, and just surged through a bunch of the strike prices for the gld and that is where i got the extra octane for my account today. And jim . Well, i want to be specific, simon, because it is a buying opportunity, but today not the day to do it. You should expect selling to increase as the after noon goes on for a simple reason. Everybodys Predictive Power is weak right now, and that includes the media and the market prognosticators like myself and you have three days worth of news items before the market comes out, and so if you are a Portfolio Manager or trader, you are saying, why commit capital and risks this afternoon and wait and get three days more information to put it to work. Monday . I expect it down, too, and you can draw a parallel to when the chinese devalued the currency on a thursday night, and friday down, and monday a great buying opportunity, and several on our desk took advantage of it, and i would expect the same thing today. And i want to point out something important, that rarely the big money has got it wrong, and the Merrill Lynch survey told us ten days ago that 2 3 of the managers did not expect this to happen, and they are not positioned for it, and they may have 6 cash and they are not positioned for this . That is right. We said on the show that the markets were getting comfortable with what going to be a remain vote, and that is how people were positioned, and that is why we are seeing the reaction, and so i would say that the referendum result itself is a stunner. However, the markets that we have is reaction that is t textbook and this is what you would get when everybody is positioned wrong. I actually agree with everything that john said that there is not many tremendous opportunities yet, simon, and the best money and trade is overnight, and the dow futures is down 700 and change, and opened up this morning down 500, and improved to less than slightly less at 400, but it is happened. And the average stock on the s p is not clobber and down 3 , and 70 of the s p 500 components are up from the open, and really, you have seen the bounces everywhere except for the financials. And financials probably dont bounce today, because to john and jims point, headline risk over the weekend, and concern whether or not the banks are ready for this, and regulators and exchanges are ready for, this and you will see the xls down laying on the the lows and the insurance companies, et cetera, and im not sure that you want to be in. What i am doing specifically is that i have some buy limited orders n and i am looking for the fecs which is the dow jones of europe, and i would love to be a buyer, but i want it lower, and the dxj is the same, and the yen is lower, and i believe there is a chance for japanese stocks and things like jpmorgan and High Quality Companies are ready for this, but i want them lower and i believe we will get them. And how much lower on the japanese stocks . Well, i think that is a huge move overni t overnight. The risk of the japanese stocks is to where they were in august which is not close. And anastasia . Well, we have to look at the opportunities, but i agree with everybody on the panel, this is not the end of the selloff here, because you know how these things play out, and the volatility levels are triggered and all sorts of factors are trigger and so to say that there is a lot of the near term uncertainty, we expect, but you have to find the sweet spot in all of the uncertainty, and to me, that sweet spot is not necessarily in the equity markets, but it is in the credit markets right now, and one thing that is getting so overlooked ahead of the brexit vote is the fact that ecb has started the Corporate Bond purchase program, a bind the way, if this continues to unravel they may be joined by the bang of england as well, so if that is the case, i want to own those corporate spreads, and i want to own those bond bonds. And by the way, financials within the credit space may be an interesting trade as well, because you may not like to take the equity risk, because there is quite a risk of the proposition, but maybe you want the coupon and take it in credit. All right. Pick it up on that point in particular, and now, going through many market dislocations in their time, and joining us is our next guests. Edward, what are you thinking there . What are you thinking and the the comments on credit . Well, the comments that greenspan expressed, i thought they were extreme. He compared the Current Situation to 1987, and he said that he does not recall as bad as back then, but what about 2008, and 2009 . That is much more severe. So i thought that his comments were over the top quite honestly. I think that he is overreact in to the situation. Look, the bottom line question mark here is, is this going to be lead ing ing to the recessio the global basis or in europe or lead to a recession in the United States . I dont believe it is going to be leading to a recession in the United States, and europe has been kind of muddling along, and they continue to muddle along, and britain, maybe they will get a recession, but look at what is happening to the pound. They are going to get a lot of stimulus from the weaker currency, and on balance, everybody says it is two years to negotiate this thing. And so we will come back next week, and these folks from the fed, and i like to call them the federal open Mouth Committee will undoubtedly start to ch chatter away that good thing that we didnt raise the Interest Rates at the last meeting and wont do it in july and i would not be surprised none and done for the fed. And pointing out that we are looking at the s p 500, and the markets are tracking lower getting down to the initial print of the down 3. 5 , and the open, so that the market, and there is a wave of selling coming through as predicted by the panel. And ed, what do you buy . Well, you know, im not a short term trader and i have been bullish since march of 2009, and the question to me is that if it is a bull market, and it is, but it is long in the tooth. It is driven by the earnings, and the Earnings Growth is going to be sub par or kind of back to normal, if you will, which is what you will get in the late stage of an economic cycle, and the dow llar is going to hurt some, but even up to now, we have had a strong dollar since 2014, and i think that you pretty much buy the across the board port fofolio, and the bea up stocks here in the industrials and the Consumer Discretionary look interesting, and the utilities with an extraordinary ru extraordinary run, and some in the yield, and some of the riskoff stocks are due for the risk. And larry, are you going to be specific of what is going to be working from here . And one thing that we have from the bear traps report, we have a mod nal model that is going to be measuring capitulation, and we have something nowhere near capitulation, and the banks, we are seeing the capitulation for the ones greater than february 10th, and typically with the political news and cycles like this, there is a lot of the clarity that comes in the following weeks. So i think that you can buy the european banks here for the trades in the next three or four weeks and add to them on the weakness, but it is an extremely high hurricane category 5 hurricane in the european banks. Thank you for your time, ed mcdonald and gary modini. Thank you. And now, you can see the dow back down with a loss of 500 point points, and still ahead, the big bank selloff from the u. S. Financials taking it on the chin. A top analyst will join us to tell us what he sees amid the pricing. And we will talk to the ceo of eaton vance what he is doing with the 8 billion under manageme management. 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Banking sector that the worst is in, and i do think that you can own these stock, because what you can stay away from is the european stocks, because of the degree of sun certainty as to who could leave the European Union, and it is an environment in which the banks are to lend with any risk control, and the rates are going to be going lower hurt iing the margins. Isnt that lower and about weaken i weakening the Capital Markets in general. That is a contributor as well . Well, can we see that, and factor it in or is that still to come . Well, simon, you are absolutely right, and it is on the come as of right now, and yesterday, you had twilio coming to market, and all of us thinking that perhaps this is the opening of the floodgates for the ipo market, and we will put that on the hold for a few weeks. Josh . Well, two superlatives that stand out to me today and i like superlatives, because they tell me that we are either toward the beginning tofr end of the trend, and the first is that the ratio right now, simon, and it is having the strongest day since november of 2011 and that is a huge move that you are seeing in long u. S. Treasury where everybody is stop buying the yen and buying stock, and this is the vanguard of the vgk is how you get exposure to the european stocks and including the uk stocks because a loft othem separate out, switzerland and uk and this is down 9. 9 , and this is the worst day since 9292008 with which is the lehman for them. And this is the exhaustion point for the riskoff trading and that gets me excited and then i look at the european individual names there, and none of them look like they are done going down and i dont want to keep any eye off of them, and say, yes, blindfold myself with the financials indiscriminately. And so you are saying, dont do it yet and wait for the whites of the eyes. Yes, i cant get behind the european banks yet. Anastasia . Well, it is stuff for the financials here for a short period of time, and the issue is that as jim mentioned the lower Interest Rates bush the other is the funding cost, because the ecf trades going out and you will get the funding costs going up up, and the lending rates going down, and that is not a good mix for the profitability of the banking sector, but it is true in europe, and also true in the u. S. As well, because brexit does mean that the fed puts it on hold and again, we cannot get out of the banking sector, and turmoil until we have higher rate ares. And suddenly n the environment where the ecb opened up tuesday once again, and here, have as much free cash as you want bts and i will pay you a premium of four euros for every thousand to rein vvest. Yes, that is factored into the market where as the brexit up until this morning was not f factored into the market. But i want to add from the contrarian in me, and the contrarian standpoint, it is hard not the look at the financials at this rate, because we do know that the rock bottom level of Interest Rates are priced in, and so if we get one incement ally positive, you could have a positive in the financials. And joining us on the phone is the deputy finance minister from sweden, mr. Lund gren, and what is your reaction to the vote by the british, and is secondly to fallout that we are seeing in the markets . Well, first of all, i was astonished and i did not think that people could be so negative. I mean, obviously, this is something that is going to be hurting the british people. And when it comes to the uncertainty following, bec

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