Transcripts For CNBC Mad Money 20131023 : vimarsana.com

CNBC Mad Money October 23, 2013

Suddenly Interest Rates are a force determining stock prices. This time, its not bearish, its bullish a positive force, chief reason the dow rallied. Were back into bad news is good news mode here, and the bad news is that unemployment, well, employment is weak. Employment is getting weaker, which will send Interest Rates back to levels that encourage all sorts of Economic Activity here. While at the same time driving the dollar lower to a level that benefits our Big International exporters. Meanwhile, inflation is coming down because of all of our newfound oil, making gasoline cheaper. Wow. Halcyon. Lower Interest Rates, lower dollar, lower gasoline, this is the stuff of greatness for the stock market. Let me show you why. First, we have lost entirely the bond market equivalent stocks. The stocks that did well because of the dividends when Interest Rates were low. Now rates are in retreat and those stocks are roaring again. Take kimberly clark. The Company Reported a spectacular number. Thank you for coming on the show. Hope to see you soon. And the dividend yield had gotten so outsized that the stock was ready to rocket, so it did, finishing up four points. That brought along kellogg, clorox, general mills, these were three other stocks that had languished. All three had been downgraded over the last week. You know what i think about those downgrades . Boo those downgrades, they look pretty darn stupid, because these stocks are all about ways to get yield without losing any sleep at night. No matter how many times they were downgraded, they wouldnt come in. Kimberly reported 5 organic growth and extraordinary acceleration. I was looking for about 3 . Any sign the economy is slowing brings money to the other, like colgate and hershey. And fears that we are suddenly going to slip back into a recession because washington is very tight with its money, and given the next employment number, we will be worse, because of the turmoil in washington that has eroded the confidence where you need to start a business. Pepsico, the standout snack and Beverage Company finally got confident for its excellent quarter, rallying, up a buck seven. And j j lasted better too after his last drug report. My Charitable Trust proudly owns it. Washington is like a tax leisure in my mind. Heres what washington says. It says, you just dont know if youre going to have a 2,000point decline or a stock market or our country is going to slip back into Great Recession mode because of the hatred of the three parties, the democrats, the republican, and the tea. With the latter still very much in ascendance, i think the latter is unstoppable. I think theyre even stronger. And you know what will happen when you dont know when you have that kind of uncertainty, a threeparty uncertainty, ill tell you, someone whos started six businesses, you dont create another. It is washingtons fault, we all know it. I heard some people not blame washington today. I just tuned them out and thought more about my Fantasy League where im five and two. The second joy of lower Interest Rates. Not that long ago, we thought Mortgage Rates which had gone from 3. 5 to 4. 7 were headed inexorably to 5 . At the same time where housing prices have flown up. The Home Builders have been saying, dont worry about it. But if they tell you to worry, they dont sell houses. I get their concern. Now, the Mortgage Rates are dropping more toward 4 and home prices have started to stall out and come back a bit. Its as if ben bernanke, remember the critics of him, its like ben bernanke totally got his way. And you can see it when housingrelated Companies Report good numbers. After the disaster with stanley and black and decker, people sold down all the housingrelated plays. But today whirlpool reported a magnificent number and it raised expectations, which caused the stock to rally 15 bucks. This is not a biotech company, 15 bucks, mostly on the backs of short sellers betting it was indeed the next black and decker. Wrong. It lit a fire under Toll Brothers and pulte. Lower oil prices have led to renewed interest in travel and leisure. Lower gasoline prices are fabulous news for disney, for its theme parks. That stock is recovering from the silly decline after last quarter. I have to be abject and slam those people upside the head who didnt like the disney quarter, like i did about the people who said negative things about whole foods. Chipotle keeps climbing. I told you to be careful of panera. That was correct. Lower gas prices also helped starbucks, which shot up to an alltime high today, despite the fact that we hear all these negative stories about china. Dont forget, were going to sit down with Ceo Howard Schultz tomorrow and talk about how business is doing. Lower energy costs, also go to the bottom line of the transports, including the airlines and freight companies. And delta reported its best quarter ever and was able to raise prices nicely without resistance. Did you hear me . An Airline Company able to raise prices without resistance . Fedex wont quit. Its up another couple of bucks again. Retailers have been down in the dumps, quarter, nice bid, walmart, target, and tjx performing extraordinarily well. Is tjx not the unsung hero of this market . International companies can start benefiting in the currency translations. You know i thought the decline in honeywell was fatuous yesterday. Said the same last night. And today the company boosted its dividend by 10 , which was sharply more than i expected, showing me that the selloff was nothing more than stupid money exiting stupidly. Now, just consider that honeywell is a Huge International play that will benefit from the weak dollar. The biggest beneficiaries, the oil companies, are due to report, and im expecting big things from ford and general motors, which have become cheap. And yes, i am sticking my neck out on ford. I am saying i think its going to be real good. So get out the guillotine if i get that one wrong. Darn it. There it is. I just put it right like that. And while i know its not very cyclical, mcdonalds is a giant beneficiary of a weaker dollar. Do you know that the stock can all that hand wringing, stocks barely down. That means the International Market is going to get better or the translation will get better. The metals, perhaps on International Demand that could come from stronger currencies overseas, also played a huge part today. Freeportmcmoran put together a very strong quarter. And lets get to this, lets say it. I want to go on record right here, right now. Alcoa is starting to get jiggy keep track of the latter, as i think its about to make its longawaited move into teenager status. Theres too much good happening in alcoa for it to be kept down much longer. I intend to start banging the drum loudly and quickly for this one. Not every company did well today. The big momentum stocks have been defying gravity, they came crashing down. Netflix reversed after a huge morning run. Tesla couldnt rally. What is that about . It needs another endorsement from someone. Linkedin and yelp were treated as the profit taking. The banks started to dissipate. Always tough when you dont know which Government Agency will take a shot at you any day. And the oils were really clobbered. Pioneer natural enduring the worst of the pain, falling 1. 79. Ive been waiting for the weakness caused by fears that oil could be in for a big drop and we saw that today. These stocks are taking welldeserved breathers. Nothing more. How long can all this good news come on . The jobs number was so weak and the next numbers are even worse means that we may be in for more Interest Rate declines. Perhaps well under 2. 5 . As long as rates stay stable or go lower, the backdrop could be considered benign enough to allow us to flourish until the next washington food fight. Who knows, though . Maybe this number shows the Tea Party Politicians who despise this current administration, that perhaps even the people in their redistricted areas, who cling to their right to express themselves any way they want, hallelujah, actually may care about not being thrown out of work. That could be something that brings us together. Heres the bottom line. There was enough good stemming from this employment number, lower rates, lower oil prices, and a lower dollar, that we bought some more rally. Interest rate declines are never a bad thing, and the longer they go on, the more these winners keep powering higher, reminding you that when washingtons away, the bulls, indeed, do play john in california, john . caller jim, love your show. Thank you, john thank you very much caller i have a west coast beach point baa baa baa bbb booyah for you i kind of like that booyah. That works for me. I dont know if it works for everybody in the room. Caller i have a question. Ive had btu Peabody Energy for a while. I bought it at 25 and took it down, but then i jumped on it at 12, playing the game, and now its coming back nicely. I just wonder, do i get the does it have legs to get back . Well, you were playing a new game, a la van the man and browneyed girl. And you know what, it worked. You know, going down the old mine, the old freeport mine the old btu mine with a transistor radio. Btu is doing better than i thought. My Portfolio Trust has been in joy. We dont see a lot of joy in joyville, but ill tell you, youre doing the momentum there, but please dont get greedy. Freeport makes me feel a little bit better about the group, though. Lets go to leo in louisiana. Leo . caller big baton rouge booyah, jim bengal booyah caller lsu fighting tigers. Next time you see your daughter, come back, well let you quarterback. I called you and asked you about delta airline. It was 920 a share. Now its 25 deltas not going up. This is the age of airlines. Theyre able to raise price. Oligopolistic pricing is the best thing that can happen to a company, even if its not best for the rest of us. Lower Interest Rates, lower dollar, lower gasoline, they all make for a higher market. Mad money will be right back. Coming up, how high . The market continues to hit new high after new high, but is the run done or just Getting Started . Cramers turning to the technicals to reveal patterns that could prove profitable. And later, search and destroy . Google crossed over the 1,000 mark, but is this only the beginning of a march towards digital dominance . Cramers searching to find out if even more impressive results are yet to come. Plus, job number one . Could the key to fixing americas unemployment picture be in our own backyard . Oilrich bakken shale helped bring north dakotas joblessness to half the National Average. And emerald oil has been drilling right in the heart of the play. Dont miss cramers exclusive. All coming up on mad money. On a day when the volatility index, you know it at the vix, also known as the fear gauge, increased 1. 29 , what should we take away from this move . You hear a lot about the vix these days, yet there still seems to be a fundamental misunderstanding of how it works. Well clear that up tonight. Youll see people quoting the volatility index as an indicator all of its own. That doesnt work. Without context, the vix alone actually tells you very little. Reporting that the vix is higher on a day when the averages are down, thats kind of like saying the bear fans were angry because the bears lost sunday. It doesnt tell you anything you didnt know, other than the fact that maybe you cant play cutler for a couple of weeks. As you might imagine, theres a powerful correlation between the socalled fear index and the market as a whole. When stocks go higher, the vix usually goes lower. When stocks go down, the vix tends to rise. All of this is pretty routine, right . However, when the correlation starts to break down, thats different. Thats when the volatility index can be an incredibly important signal if youre willing to look at it. I mention this, because the standard correlation already seems to be breaking down right now, right before our eyes and that is not a good sign for the market. So tonight were going off the charts with the help of Mark Sebastian with optionpit. Com. Writes to me on realmoney. Com as well as being our resident vix expert here on mad money. Now, lets put this in context. Thanks to sebastians work, weve been able to spot a host of bottoms and tops, all of which were visible ahead of time, all because the visibility index wasnt behaving the way you would expect it. Weve seen this over and over again this year. Hes been uncannily right, and thats why im back talking to him again right now. But first, lets explain how this works. A little primer here. Check out this chart of the s p 500 and the vix since the the charts, as interpreted by Mark Sebastian, say that this is the time to get cautious. He says you should take something off the table, because the vix is signaling that our troubles arent over just because the politicians got their act together for the moment last week. If soninlaw because these politicians will be right back in the headlines three months from now, fighting over the same things, with some people, particularly tea party, totally emboldened to shut the government down, and its going to start impacting the market once again. Im not quite as pessimistic as sebastian, but weve seen this vix pattern play out accurately so many times, that i think its very important to take what hes saying seriously and temper your and my enthusiasm. After the break, ill try to save you some more money. Coming up, search and destroy. Google crossed over the 1,000 mark, but is this only the il mincut is this only the at ce. Revolutionizing an industry can be a tough act to follow, but at xerox weve embraced a new role. 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[ engine revs ] and you find yourself in exactly the right place at the right time. Just be sure youre in the right car when it happens. The 2014 cclass sports sedan. Power, performance and style in total alignment. See your authorized mercedesbenz dealer for exceptional offers through mercedesbenz financial services. Help the gulf when we made recover and learn the gulf, bp from what happened so we could be a better, safer energy company. I can tell you safety is at the heart of everything we do. Weve added cuttingedge technology, like a new deepwater well cap and a stateoftheart monitoring center, where experts watch over all drilling activity twentyfourseven. And were sharing what weve learned, so we can all produce energy more safely. Our commitment has never been stronger. Haslem eleia of how does a company go from being a despised loser to a beloved winner in just 12 months time . Thats the big question when it comes to this incredible move in google, propelling the stock over 1,000 recently. We know the proximate cause. On thursday after the close, google reported a truly spectacular quarter, and as a result the stock surged from 888 to 1,011. That is a 13. 8 move in a single session. But you need to look back a full year if you want to understand what made these results truly remarkable. Because at the exact same time in 2012, google was a dog, that total bow wow that was being written off, left for dead by wall street. And for a pretty good reason, too. October 17th, 2012, google reported a quarter that was wildly viewed as being absolutely hideous, causing the stock to drop from 755 to 695, almost an 8 decline in one session. Boo one year ago, google was virtually untouchable. I was one of the few people who said stick with the stock, and jimcramer on twitter, i was roundly hounded even more than usual. So how did management turn things around . How the heck did google go from being poleaxed to go be widely praised in exactly 12 months . That was easy. Buy buy buy. Lets take a trip in the way back machine with mr. Peabody so you can understand exactly what google has done and why the stock is even at these heights still worth buying. Were time traveling to a little more than a year ago, october 29th, 2012, a few days after google posted its particularly heinous Third Quarter. Thats the day when bank of america and merrill downgraded goog in a very perceptive if ultimately incorrect piece of research titled mobile transition taking a toll, downgrade to neutral. That really captured the essence of what was wrong with google in the Third Quarter of 2012. That was the one that was in the middle of the day, they announced, it was supposed to come out at the end of the day, an exercise in embarrassment. At the time, google was taking it on the chin. Google gets the vast majority of its revenue from selling ads and mobile ads are worth substantially less than advertisements that show up on the big screen or the desktop. The analysts at bank of america and merrill laid out googles mobile dilemma in very clear and stark

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