Transcripts For CNBC Mad Money 20140902 : vimarsana.com

CNBC Mad Money September 2, 2014

Skriz developing in the market. We see it every day. The s p claimed. 05 , and the nasdaq advanced 3 . Ing itst its about the impact on world events. The market is going to distinguish between stocks that get hurt by the Ukraine Russia conflict, and the local advances. Bye, bye, bye. Were now in the process of discounting a pro tracted conflict in ukraine without a solution. It will keep controlling. Especially when our president is flying to estonia that war could be on the agenda. That cant be dismissed. Now this has been a brutal period for some stocks, and good for others. Hence why the s p 500 is breaking records with the gains by a changing of the guard out of international into local. Out of Economic Sensitivity into high secular growth, meaning a worldwide economic expansion isnt needed for companies to beat the estimates. Many of the United Statesbased companies roaring are now rolling over. The moneys pouring out of the internationals and pouring into domestic winners because of the conflict and the ramifications. Everything from a weak you row, strong dollar, and a new european recession. Lets rule out the extremely negative role that europes play. Go back to when europe first went awry. 2012. We started developing the industrials with european exposure, including tech. We thought they would fail. Its right to do. That is happening all over, boeing and emerson and others. White flag being thrown up with those companies. But unlike 2012, europe is causicause ing more problems, the deflation is powerful given the pitiful job growth, that rates for spain and italy are the same as ours. Its hard for me to see that, having traded international bonds. Got to get your heads around it. Anyone who knows how to handle a wire instruction in europe is buying dollars and using them to buy bonds. Thats terrible for american banks because it keeps our Interest Rates too low to make big profits. Its awful for the consumer package companies and the Major International drug firms because they need a weak dollar. They have to translate the overseas estimates into dollars for earnings per share calculations. And when they do, people will be disappointed. These sectors are so problematic, they are going to stay under pressure and go down every time we get a ratcheting up of tensions in ukraine, almost daily. Its a huge issue. Its getting worse. Not better. You saw it in old tack all day today. All right, enough with the negatives. Im tired of being negative, let everybody else do that. Whats working . The ideal companies are a hodgepod hodgepodge. Theres obamacare winners, restaurants and retailers that are viewed as safe because theyre domestic and can be bolstered by job growth and cheaper gasoline, entertainment, rails, supermarkets, a smattering of airlines. Li liqu liquor, and a handful of special situations that may power higher into year end. Start with the special situations, thats what most of you want to hear. Im come plying. Im pegging the big four from here to year end as being twitter, gopro, tesla and netflix. Those are the four stocks i think investors will find irresistible. Twitter has turned the corner since the new ceo has got there, that discipline, the Goldman Sachs banker who got them public. Gopro, the holiday season. Dont believe people who tell you the imitators are. Its an ecosystem. Tesla is wellrun thanks to elon musk. I think they wont be able to take the pain into the end of the year and most likely cover their short positions. More on that later. And unlike the car companies, almost all domestic. Netflix, a worldwide signup bonanza. As more movies are added to streaming and more productions online, the stock will power higher. Okay, i like apple too, but i recognize too much hot money in the launch, and the iphone watch. Got to be careful there. Throw in yelp, going to be a takeover now until kingdom come. Now a real takeover name, concur which you know i like so much, it seems to be the subject of a bidding war between oracle a s. A. P. Take a look at the retailers, the worst acts better than had the best international story. The strongest has been home depot is a triumph of management, but almost a totally domestic play. If you stick around, ill tell you to use the credit card breach as a buying opportunity. Macys is the story. Ross was a great growth stock, but ratcheted down the growth rate over the last few years. Suddenly it beat the numbers, and be brought the off the rack retailer back to life. And then some. Macys this was the tell of a lifetime. It had a clear earnings miss, yet it went much higher. Whats not to like . Domestic retails red hot, getting hotter. Whole foods, get a top in kroger. Big firsttime national ad campaign, the shorts are hurt, kroger, bestrun super market in the world. Restaurants, play poker, high and low. Chipotle and jackinthebox. Enough with burger king, theres an inversion deal with a fattening concept. Despite what you saw today, the world is turning on doughnuts faster than soda. And its remarkable, anything hospital, tenant, hca, go to from here to year end. At the beginning of september, what to go to. Same goes for cvs, and sicigna. And two others, i think parago and malencrod. As we head into cold and flu season, and the quest core deal coming online, i think the bears are rolling. Regeneron and others are the best ways to play drugs. I think the drug they announced this week that lowers the cholesterol could make it go for ages. Its the first 360 points. I hope you bought it ahead of the new drugs announcement, i pretty much hit it every day. What am i going to tell you . Terrific big cap stocks that are about avoiding europe. Oil got hit today, led to an amazing rally in the transports. Dont trust the whole group. Do like spirit air and southwest, more price sensitive. Rails, they cant handle the freight they have. Union pacific for autos, fracking sand and chemicals, or Norfolk Southern for the coal market. And i like Automatic Data Processing as a play on the continued return to job growth. Waste management could see gains because of construction, thats the real reason i own the stock. I like this constellation brands, its a big wine company and that napa earthquake hurt. But i also like monster beverage. The former has been cooling even as they made a littlenoted tequila acquisition which won every taste test in tequilas. And selling the monster, i think cocacola will have a similar offer at Green Mountain Coffee Roasters cure. And big entertainment stocks, disney with star wars beckening. And the guardians of the galaxy, they can make fortunes, imagine how much the rollout of stars wars can make. And ginette, spinning off to add value. Yes, the bets for the rest of 2014 begin to be placed at the beginning of september. We have a politicallyinduced recession in europe, sending a wave of money into the best domestic stories we own. The bottom line. To me it looks like a 2012 redux. And switch the game plan to preserve the games that accrued before the sochi olympics which right now looks like the Highwater Mark of soft politic. Lets go to elizabeth in florida. Elizabeth. Caller hey, jim. Hi. Caller one of your chose last week highlighted Great American companies and the x factor of innovation, one is trading 13 off of the 52week high. Is now a good time to open a long position in boeing . You have to wait for beauing to retest the low. Boeing is being viewed as a playen ukraine. Should it be . I dont care. It is. And thats the problem. Chris in tennessee. Chris. Caller booyah, jim cramer. Tennessee titan booyah. Caller professor cramer. Thank you very much. You have an excellent show. Thank you. Caller i have called in a couple times. You are one of my heros. Thank you. Caller also, let me say very quickly, i acted on a recommendation you had had and brought some radian stock and have done well with that, also have a copy of get rich carefully. Im loving everything you said. Now to the stock. Caller the stock is builders first source. It looks like they have some good things going on. Theyve made a couple of acquisitions over, i dont know, the past several months. They have some good stuff going on. Just to want ask you if you think this company and its stock has some Growth Potential . I think it does, but my problem is, with being this opportunity by home depot in the discount, i think that opportunity has to be taken. Thats the better one. Thank you for the kind words, chris. I may draft chris from the Tennessee Titans tonight. Be surprised. Theres a skiz in the market. And the stocks under pressure and those working. You may have to change it up a little bit. Mad money tonight, kicking off the week long fant city fort folio series. See who im picking to lead this bliss to a threepeat. And facebook and tesla, a trying to change the world. But are the stories behind the stocks still as bright . I have an update you dont to want miss. And i know youre not. Better watch that. Shockers, plus dollar stores, burger joints, theres takeover targets all over wall street. Stay tuned, i may have the next stock in the buyout site, and the acquirer stock would soar. Stick with cramer. Send jim an email to mad money cnbc. Com. Or call us. Miss something . Head to mad money. Cnbc. Com. Where the reward was that what if tnew car smelledit card and the freedom of the open road . A card that gave you that im 16 and just got my first car feeling. Presenting the buypower card from capital one. Redeem earnings toward part or even all of a new chevrolet, buick, gmc or cadillac with no limits. So every time you use it, youre not just shopping for goods. Youre shopping for something great. Learn more at buypowercard. Com female narrator sleep train challenged its manufacturers sleep train challenged its manufacturers to offer even lower prices. But the mattress price wars ends sunday. Now its posturepedic versus beautyrest with big savings of up to 400 off. Serta icomfort and tempurpedic go headtohead with three years interestfree financing, plus free sameday delivery, setup, and removal of your old set. When brands compete, you save. Mattress price wars ends sunday at sleep train. Your ticket to a better nights sleep when youre running a business, i mean, honestly, is there anything worse than a lot of competition . Right now our retailers are being eaten alive by competition. We have too many stories in this country of all stripes. And until the Competitive Pressure gets relieved, things are difficult for the bricks and mortar merchants. How do you fix competition . Consolidation. Retailers need to start acquiring each other to remove players and shrink the competitive landscape. How would that look . Let me give you the classic example. Gary although credit sweets came out with a report complaining why gmc and vitamin shop should merge. These are the two largest vitamin store chains. And made the stocks pop over 5 because it made so much sense. Since then, the hype has fizzled, and the conversation seems to be lost in the ukraine shuffle. But it hasnt been lost on us. Here on mad money we have done our own research and we think its exactly the kind of deal that needs to start happening now in detail. They should acquire vitamin shop, and its a slam dunk, i hate using terms like that. Two companies struggling separate my, and give a boost into a single entity,s it a nodrainer. A deal is an obvious way to go as gncs ceo was the top at vitamin shop. If anythione can make it work, can. Why should they consider merging . For years we have heard they are Different Companies with vastly different strategies. And gnc is at leader in sports nutrition, vitamin shop is a smaller, more diversified player that puts up a lot of stores. Lately thats changed, vitamin shop is manufacturing its own products and getting into sports nutrition, hot area, gnys area. And gnc is trying to expand to women and vitamin categories, both areas of are strength for vitamin shop. In short, it seems like the companies are converging. We dont want convergence, we want a merger. They are plagued by the same problems, an intense environment with aggressive competition, especially online. Thats the reason theyre crushed, gnc is down 35 , vitamin shop, 25 . But they would remove their most important competitor in a deal that would be additive to the bottom line. Combine with a 9 market share in a fragmented industry. It would be done easily without the regular lais later os unlike the Family Dollar thing. And 9 doesnt sound like many, there would be no serious stand alone competition. In fact, if gnc buys vitamin shop, they wont have a single direct competitor. Vitamin shop was too expensive, with all the store openings, it was growing faster than gnc, but after the clubbing the stocks have take, a surprising one, the last couple years its been a laggard, it trades at 14. 5 times next years earnings estimates. Gnc could pay handsomely and make out like a bandit. Its how gnc would roar on the stock on the day of the announcement. And theres a high singledigit growth rate. From 678 stores today to 900, which is what attracted buyers to begin with. But this industry is poisoned by competition. The last things they need is to be opening more stores. We need to seek consolidation with stores being closed left and right. Get this, if gnc acquires vitamin shop, i think they can close stores by the hundreds, eliminating costs making the remaining locations far more profitable. And every vitamin shop store is in competition with a gnc store. Look at a map, 100 of vitamin shops locations are within a five mile radius of gnc, 80 are win a mile of gnc. Thats rue thousands. I hate that. And you could have four or five stores sitting on top of the competing location while keeping the traffic at the remaining store. In effect, gnc would be replacing two struggling locations that are cannibalizing each other, office depot and office max tried, but staples is still in business. Its facing many retailers. There are too many darn stores. The solution is to merge and shut. Gnc and vitamin shop have different customer bases, the man from vitamin shop is the perfect guy to synthesize the two brands. Even without a ton of store c e closures, this would remove the competitor, removing the pricing pressure. Its a huge value on the earnings. If gnc acquires vitamin shops, combine the websites, share the brands, and decrease the Promotional Price cuts on third party merchandise, and the closures and back office consolidation. What would a vitamin shop acquisition mean for gnc . 35 premium to the current stock price, thats generous. They could snap it up for 1. 6 billion. It would create 140 million of synergies instantly, and booth the earnings by 20 , increase the earnings, the ones printed by 40 . Those are phenomenal numbers and thanks to gary for pointing out how much sense it would make. And gnc would see nice postmerger multiple expansion. They take a key competitor out, a dramatic boost to the earnings, and the market would reward gnc with a higher multiple. Maybe 16 or 17. And the bottom line about this great idea of an acquisition. Over and over again, were seeing this market reward acquirers for making key competitors. We had a norwegian price go up, even with absurdly inflated prices. And gnc, a potential takeover of vitamin shop, no different. To paraphrase honest abe, a vitamin industry divided against itself cannot stand. Apart they will struggle, but together they will soar. G thrks c, do the smart thing and buy vitamin shop. C, do the d buy vitamin shop. C, do the smar vitamin shop. C, do the smart th vitamin shop. Nc, do the smart t vitamin shop. Its now september. Which means it its time to say goodbye to summer and hello to football. With the first game of the nfl season kicking off on thursday, im sure many of you are getting ready for the fantasy football draft. Im into the big draft tonight, so i can get the best players for the skeedaddy team. As in are you ready, skeedaddy . Thats why in storied mad money tradition, all week were going to be drafting my fantasy stock port polio. Members of the shmump, close your ears. We do this every year for two years, the process of building a strong portfolio is like a strong fantasy football team. I used to do it among stocks at my hedge fund. And if you can devote half as much time researching stocks as people do fiddling with their fant say football rosters, then youll be much better investors. Tonight, starting off the mad money fantasy football by kicking quarterbacks. You may not be in fantasy, quarterbacks might think are really important, we go for running backs. But thats okay, because people know that the quarterback is important on the field. If youre running an nfl franchise, you need someone whos consistent, someone who can throw a lot of passes and put up a lot of points. For my fantasy football team, i want tom brady from the patriots to surprise, or drew brees from the saints, my daughters team. For the portfolio you, you need the stock equivalent of the fantastic players. Were not reusing any of the draft picks from last year, in my mind, the best quarterback stocks are out there, home depot and protect this house. Under armor. I like to think of tom brady as more of a home depot player even though his wife gisele just signed with under armor. But like brady, home depot delivers and delivers. Its a pocket passer with incredible consistency. Hear me out, i know about the glitch. One second. Watch as you draft home depot, 2200 Stores Across the United States that had been hurt by the recent weak nns housing. But no more. Roaring up until today when the stock got slammed on news of a possible massive hackingrelated credit card breach. I think its a temporary hit to give you an entry point i didnt think could happen. Champion stocks done stay down for long. I dont believes it another target, they have the trust of their customers and executing, target wasnt. And this is not a case where were putting home depot on ir. The only thing i think of with ir and home depot is excellent investor relations. Why do i like the stock so much . When youre drafting a quarterback, let me tell you something, look for leadership. Hes the one who calls the plays on the field. When you pick a stock to be the quarterback, you need one terrific one. Home depots phenomenal ceo frank blake is sadly stepping down in two months, he will be chairman and intends to keep an office at the headquarters. Hes been creating a great bench for years at home depot, the chief Financial Officer is excellent, the incoming ceo, hes been groomed forever. Hes the president of u. S. Home depot operation

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