Change or make the japanese find another way to grow other than just dump their cars on us. Yeah, weve come to accept that the rest of the world is relying on the u. S. To help them and we dont like it. Its too hard. And that reaction led to a wholesale selling of american stocks today which is how the dow tumbled 252 points s p fell 1. 3 nasdaq declined 1. 03 . Hideous. Yep. You know what, its become a zero sum game. We know that other countries are going to keep weakening their currencies, and were going to get earnings from those countries that arent as great as they were. Because our Companies Report in dollars, not yen or euros or rials. And while i always plead with you its a market of stocks not just some giant asset class, my pleas have fallen on the deaf ears of hedge fund managers, that dont trifle with individual companies. They just accept the dollar is going up and going up so much that its per se bad for all american stocks even those who it actually isnt bad for. So the liquidateing stocks and theyre buying bonds and doing it hand over fist. These sellers sure made themselves look right today, wrapping up one of the worst months for the averages literally in a year with a real acceleration of the selloff right into the bell. Why even bother to do this . Why even bother with the exercise of studying stocks . First, because we know you like them, or you wouldnt be watching. Particularly on a friday evening. But second and more important, we can pick the stocks of companies that arent being heard here. Maybe make money with them. We can find a costco which gave you a 5 special dividend. We can isolate visa which gave us a four for one split. We can tell you to own, but dont trade both apple and facebook. And you can do quite well even as theres always going to be something out there, like a deckers that really sent us in the wrong direction, and yes, indeed, into the the house of pain. Sometimes management just gets it wrong. And i very much regret the deckers situation. You cant mention the good without the bad and deckers, deckers was real bad. Boo i would appreciate the chance to speak to the ceo about what went wrong here and whether theres any chance for recovery anytime soon. We also know you like to come and find out about things like shake shack, which we suggested you do everything you could to get in on that deal. That was right. Next week were looking for a couple of really important themes. Trying to get information. For starters were searching for America First companies that can weather whatever these other Central Banks are throwing at us. Second were trying to find out when high yields will protect us again, given that now the tenyear treasury yields half of what a lot of stocks are giving you. Right now only utilities have afforded us protection, and theyve been champs. But after the dramatic ongoing decline in interest rates, with a colossal move part again today, we need to regard some stocks that have sold off in weaker earnings as potential bimarket equivalency again. Third, were beginning to wonder whether we have to be on the lookout for a bottom in oil, even as it might be this kind of bottom. No no i think too much of david dempture, the famous ceo of core labs that Drilling Service scientist, whos been one of the premiere Oil Service Companies of the era. To ignore his view stated here last night, in what i thought was a dramatic presentation, that we could be putting in a bottom if crude soon. This 45 level has been able to hold despite a tremendous onslaught of sellers, and oil jumped up three bucks or 8 to finish at 48. Now, this time it was off of uncertainties caused by an isis raid on the oilrich kirkuk region of iraq. So, what were going to do is were going to listen to all the Oil Companies that report next week in order to return whether theyve been cut back so aggressively that well get what we call a vshaped bottom or a ushaped bottom a miami bottom in the next few months. Theres still going to be a ton of stress on the overindebted oils at these levels. I suspect bankruptcies sometimes in the next six months for many of them all smaller, probably wont know them but dempshire gave us hope that oil would stop its free fall something that this stock market desperately wants to see happen regardless of whether its actually good for the consumer, for you, or not. With that in mind, on monday we hear from exxonmobil the largest of them all. We heard about some huge cuts this week also heard about suspension from buybacks from big companies, but they arent occurring fast enough to take ul of this nearterm supply out. Thats what happens if you shut down drilling. However, that may not be the case fur months from now. And for the record, the major oils after a blistering barrage of bad news have still not taken out their december 2014 lows something that bares close watching after exxon reports. We also get results from anadarko anadarko, apc, a savvy independent oil company that will most likely give us a forecast for crude. Its far more sensitive to the price of oil then exxon. Within its 1. 61 jump today on the strength of oil futures. Who knows more about the demand to drill than national oil arco. The big Drilling Machine Company that reports tuesday. Well be on bottom watch. If they say their order book is drying up fast its more likely well get a vshaped recovery than we get a u. Interesting. Then theres bp the legally hobbled oil giant thats rewarding to shareholders. We put all these Oil Companies forecast together, next week well make an informed determination. Certainly a lot better than just watching every tick of the futures, like a lot of these jokers do. Thats just like you dont feed a weather man to know which way the wind blows. After the bell tuesday, two of my favorites reporting here. Weve got disney and chipotle. The formers should be helped by cheaper gasoline right. It helps the theme parks, but it might be hurt by the stunning decline in u. S. Tourism, that charlie sharp flagged in this visa call today. Listen to that call it was last nights call. But he said listen tourists arent coming here. Its really down because of that strong dollar. If disney comes down you know what i say . Forget about the strong dollar buy something for your kids. I care passionately about chipotle and have ever since danny meyer told me people should be owning the stock, back when it was in the 50s. Its now up 110. Thats the same danny meyer that just brought shake shack public in the most exciting ipo of 2015. Wednesday, two bond market equivalent stocks im watching very closely. First is clorox. Wow, i dont know. The stock has been on a tear. Then theres general motors. Clorox yields 2. 7 and its been rock steady. By the way, it has much less exposure to almost any other packaged Goods Company in foreign markets, pull out of event swraivenezuela venezuela, that was a genius mood. General motors has been horrendous. I think if gm announced its going to raise the dividend then the stock bottoms right here, and if it doesnt, no bottom. Thursday we hear from the quintessentially american buffalo wild wings, which has been on a real tear. I think there should be one more solid quarter helped by a fabulous football season and the desire to have a beer while you watch a game. Then, twitter reports. Now, heres a special one. The expectations about earnings and Monthly Average users have come down. But at the same time, the expectations of a possible mcdonalds style coupe has risen. I think both of those things have to occur first. And i dont expect much from the quarter either. That said my Charitable Trust owns twitter, because we figure that like mcdonalds, where we were right, theres a lot of value here and someone will eventually realize how to bring it out. Although, the wall of shame looms large, if the quarters lousy. Finally on friday we get the Monthly Employment report from the labor department. Now, we enter a bizarre situation, where you have to fear the fed raising rates off a toostrong jobs number because that would send the dollar through the roof and cause more dislocation than we have already. Things are crazy enough. Thats the last thing we need. Heres the bottom line. Next week well be seeing a bottom on the horizon, as well as the continued strength of the America First stocks and whether big dividends can create a bottom for a lot of otherwise poorly performing nonutility equities. Somehow, im sure after next week, at the last real heavy week of earnings season we will have the answers. Hey, why dont we go to marilyn the in ohio. Marilyn . Caller hi, jim its marilyn from ohio. Go, buckeyes we love the buckeyes here. We like their coach, hes real smart. Whats up . I want to start a championship portfolio for my 2yearold grandson, with companies that he can relate to. I was thinking about mattel. What are your thoughts or should i mattel is so poorly managed, you cant have that. I know it looks like a bargain and barbie could snap back hasbro is better of the toy cos. Whats the biggest toy company of the world . Apple why not buy some apple . They make the best toys. But, theyre also the most educational. Lets go to bradley in louisiana. Bradley . Caller hello, jim bradley caller jim im calling about Linn Energy Ticker cold line. My first question for you is is this a good pick right now . No. No its got too much go ahead, im sorry, finish up. Go ahead. Well, all right. Well, heres the problem. Theres been margin call selling there by highlevel executives, theres a problem with the balance sheet, this whole group is under a lot of pressure. Were not going to go there. Its just too risky. We dont even down to 10 its too risky. It just is. Can we go to murt in michigan . Murt . Caller hey, jim, a great big booyah from michigan. Nice whats happening . Caller im looking for some excitement. What happened . Did they forget about abbvie today . Which one . Oh abbvie. We were perplexed. Its been a big winner for us. Its come down hard. We think at 3. 25 yield, it is really too cheap to let go. And were k looking the to buy some or augment our position in the high 50s. But it took our breath away that people were so upset about one of their drugs not selling like they should have. Were in it for the hepc. Dont give up on abbvie. Be a buyer, not a seller. Pick stocks that make you money. Things will be a lot clearer by the end of next week. 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Guaranteed sleep train your ticket to a better nights sleep back on january 14th josh in texas asked me about boot barn, the aptly figured bbot a retailer that became public land anded at over 16 a share and has since rallied 16 and change. Ive got to do more homework. Now ive done the homework and it turns out that boot barn while a small speculative stock, is absolutely worth buying if youre willing to take some risk. Heres the company thats the largest and Fastest Growing retail chain dedicated to selling western and work boots, apparel, and accessories in the country. 166 Stores Across 26 states. Boot barn has very little in the way of competition, with twice as many stores as its nextclosest competitor. And like so many other footwear plays, theres not a lot of fashion risk in this business. When youre shopping for work boots, you generally dont care whats in style this season. Hey, dont i know it . Im hardly styling these days. All right, anyway all right. Soupy sales as a foot puppet. And believe it or not, boot barn its friday give me a break actually has a pretty large Addressable Market. Considering the western wear here in the United States think about cowboy boots. Ow plantar fasciitis, too. Really great. Is worth nearly 8 billion and still growing at a 3 to 5 annual clip. Meanwhile, the market for workwear including boots, is worth 12 billion, and its growing at a 2 to 4 pace. So altogether, boot barns Addressable Market remember tam, the total Addressable Market comes to 20 billion. As of right now, they have just 3 share in western wear and a paltry 1 share in work wear. To me, that means this country still has a ton of room to grow. Its a concept. In fact, boot barn has a number of highly visible growth opportunityings opportunities, which is why i was willing to recommend the stock after i did my homework. In fact the Company Currently has 166 locations. Management thinks they can ultimately grow to a number over 400 locations. Thats a big runway. As big as shake shack is talking. That could provide boot barn with years of growth. And frankly, i think 400 stores a pretty conservative target, given theres plenty of demand for its product and the company is still underpenetrated in many regions of the country. I think boot barn could double its store count by growing its new stores at a low doubledigit clip annually. You might think a chain that specializes in cowboy boots is maybe too niche a retailer but the fact is that 45 of boot barns ecommerce sales comes from places where theres no physical stores. Theres a ton of demand for boot barns products even where their Brand Awareness is practically nonexistent. And boot barn has a lot of white space in this country, especially the southwest, and the lest most third of the country, from california up to oregon, and out to montana and new mexico, natural boot places. And even in places like texas, where boot barn has a fair number of stores already, plenty of room to add more. Plus building a new boot barn is pretty lucrative. I thought that these were some amazing statistics. Over the last three years, the companys new stores have generated 41 cashoncash returns in the first year. Thats an excellent number versus almost every retailer i follow. The difficult new boot barn has a payback period of just 2. 3 years. Meanwhile, the company has a consistent track record of growing its samestore sales, which have been positives for last 20 consecutive quarters. Wow, not a lot of em can say that. This is an inherently stable business. Boot barn should be able to generate 6 samestore sales growth in 2015. Again, not too shabby. Better than the average store. On top of that the company is currently trying to build out a highmargin accessories business selling bags wallets, jewelry, and gifts to fill in gaps in its current product mix and position itself as a onestop shop for all your western and work wear needs. Boot barn is also moving aggressively into private label, which we know you know, from the likes of a kroger, its a or perrigo, its terrific for a companys profitability, because store Brand Private Label Products carry much higher margins than somebody selling somebody elses brand of merchandise. Specifically the margins on private label merchandise, theyre 1,000 basis points higher than for the third party brands. That is gigantic. Right now, boot barns private label products just account for 7 of sales. Management thinks they can grow this number to 15 , as they introduced new private label brands and more product extension. Remember, kroger has as much as 25 product brand. And while ecommerce only accounts for 4 of the companys sales at a moment the business should be able to grow at a rapid 20 clip going forward, especially as boot barn updwrads its mobile site and continues developing a better omnichannel strategy. Now, not only do i see boot barn sales rising as the Company Expands all over the country, i think its margins will be able to steadily expand and again, hedge funds managers love expanding margins. At the moment boot barn has an 8 operating margin. That is not that good. I bet they can get forth of 10 in the not too distant future. That would be pretty good. Some of that comes from the increasing private label that i mentioned. Some of it has to do with improved supply chain. They ship more product overseas. So if its a product of an economies of scale, as the Company Continues expanding the size of its store base and they can, therefore, advertise all those costs over the bigger broader base of stores. All that said you know this ones still speculative. Why . First of all, it only has a tiny 520 million market cap. I think you become a larger player. But boot barns already the dominant retailer of western wear and work wear. It has twice the number of stores as its next closest competitor, and more stores than the next five largest pure play competitors combined. This is a highly fragmente