Transcripts For CNBC Mad Money 20160620 : vimarsana.com

CNBC Mad Money June 20, 2016

Are hitting the highs today. Im talking about the usual suspects. The consumer packaged goods. Only a handful of the good leaders that can truly turn a pre selling respite, a relief rally into something that lasts like the big Cab Companies internationally. Only a handful are making highs. Thats a sign of the staying power being a week. Unless it goes to the sameold sameold. I know all rallies look like theyre created equal. Dynamic moves all over the place. The kind of rally today is the mirror image of the typical selloff. On day one everything goes up. By day two, we know it will bounce. This is the wait works. The first day in the selloff. We stop and catch some buys. Its just the same thing. Nothing has changed. Before we entity into expects, why does this matter . Who cares, isnt a rally a rally . Just like i told you last week. There are varying degrees of bad, very bad, real bad. There are varying degrees of good rallies. And this one, well, it was just good. Nothing more than that. You want a rally, what is a really good rally . One that is led by the financials, the techs, and the health care stocks. Those group think. S make up a huge amount of the dow jones industrials. You have a new fuel. Today is robbing peter to pay paul scenario. Pun that is derive from the crazy know of the how the brexit will affect eu. When i listen to people who discuss the uks possible departure, i say to myself, are you kidding me . You think thats big . Have you ever heard of donald trump . Lets say britain leaves. Will britain have to print a whole new currency . No. Will britain be able to trade with europe, yes. There will have there be food riots . No. It is comical how people are so fearful of brexit. The largest car company, the largest savings and loan, freddie and fannie, the largest brokers, like it did during the financial crisis, look though. I dont want to be dwlib. Could i say a potential brexit could be the biggest disaster since the germans invented. But if britain votes to snat eu, no one will remember my dire warning. On the other hand if you say that it is no big deal, youll be pilloried. Thats why so many commentators are crying brexit wolf. Nobody ever gets dismissed as a moron for being too negative. Let me put hit the way. You can worry all you want but todays actions with many of the usual suspects, even as i wish there was some roaring by the usual suspects. Versus the consumer packages goods. Cpgs. Theyre the least risky and most consistent. General mills, hershey, conagra, mccormick. Why . Because we remain in a deflationary world where the cost that goes into these goods is coming down with you. They arent cutting there prices, are we . If we catch a recession from too many rate likes, salt and pepper, cereal, peanut butter. Theyll do just fine. Then theres ulta salon where only a fool bets against mary dillon. Every day more women decide they cant go out without makeup. There are too many cameras out there with too many High Resolution screens them should call themselves ulta selfie is that salon. Heaven for bid you ever see a store from the mall in the list. Theres plenty of takeover talk married with the best stores. Looking for that one director, that fellow, he doesnt seem to like. How about tech . Poorly represented. Inindividu invideoia. It is a wit of a conundrum. It barely goes up. Apple closed down today. What else is new . Theres advanced micro which comes under the category of, see, were still not dead yet the only one is dizzow. Er price line expedia which is wall cheap online travel. Pretty much the frugality of shopping at the dollar stores. What is shocking . What kind of companies do we need to see more of that were out there . Three. There were only three. Three big capitalization stocks to me that are signs that you should have a rally someday. The wet noodle of an economy here and abroad. We have at t. Totally domestic. 3 m and honey well. Many scoff because of the nfl package, it is just win baby. It doesnt hurt that the safe has a very safe yield. Nearly three times. Honeywell . 3m, trumping over slowdowns worldwide with innovation. Ill say it again. It is the ideal for many portfolios. Any others . Insurers are there. Theres nothing like insuring something and watching it go down because of deflation. And the oils. What can i say . The down side, the bounce sbirg than you think. This is starting to look like a floor. When there is a floor the buyers cannot resist which is why you have the rally we had today. These guys have visions of it in their heads. Dont get carried away. The big rally will give way to smaller ones and smaller ones until it is the same old. Not until we get fresh money. Not until more investors resurfaced and the love affair with the stocks comes back. Not just an okay one. It can be taken away from janet yellen or a couple polls that britain intends to stun world and break off from europe. Caller you know we love you in the sacramento valley. Boy, did i love it out there. I also love oregon. My daughters are there. Caller in between sacramento and San Francisco for your listeners. There is a boom in the housing tracts and everything is moving. I see the trucks running up and down the road. With all the infrastructure we need done on the freeways and cement. I think it is a very inexpensive stock. I think it is a good one. I like cemex. I think you have a good thesis. Remember i like Martin Marietta materials more. Those are a little higher priced stocks. Ann in washington. Yes. Mr. Cramer. Thank you for taking my call. I was wondering what your thoughts are on nrf. North star Realty Finance corporation. And the all stock merger that is supposed to transpire the First Quarter of next year. Is it good for an average investor like me or what . No. You want to ring the register. Were not arbiters on the show. Every time we hold on to stocks, you know what happens when the deal dont get done. Jerry. Caller booya, jill booya caller i wanted to call and say that you do a real good job and you have a good staff working for you. Well, they make me look good every day. How can i help . Caller my stock is cypress semiconductor. Introducing a new faster semicouldnt ductor kit. They just partnered with my, semiconductors and the automobile technology. I wanted to get your thoughts. Problem is they did a convertible. Going back over it, i just dont like convertible deals. We saw that, take a look at restoration hardware. It just puts a lid on the stock. That was a mistake that they did that. Everybody who ever adheres to that would disagree but ive been around a long time. I dont know how to make a semiconductor. Remember, all rallies are not created equal. Today was not the best. Until you see new money in and return to a love affair with growth, thats what it takes. They can be taken away on a whim. Mad money looking for something that sparkle this is summer . The two in the jewelry space seem to be losing their luster. Im looking at jewelry to see if there is a diamond in the rough. Then 83 million use credit cards for purchases. How to profit off the credit card changeover that was today. And under siege in recent months. Im investigating what is behind the negative chatter even as the stock hit a high. Stick with cramer. Announcer dont miss a second of mad money. Follow jim cramer on twitter. Have a question . Tweet cramer. Send him an email ad mad money. Com or give him a call. Miss something . Head to madmoney. Cnbc. Com. Before a bunch of dreamers looked up to the sky and said, why not . And Collaboration Tools from intel made Rocket Science simple for actual rocket scientists. And the launch crew met for a moment of reflection. Before any of this, cdw orchestrated a collaboration solution using pcs with intel 6th gen core vpro processors. Collaboration by intel. Orchestration by cdw. What the heck is going on in the jewelry business . The last 18 months, the two largest players have seen their stocks just crater. Tiffanys is down 19 year to date. While cignus lost 30 over the same period. Including nearly 7 drop on june 2 after some Company Specific bad news. And this is on top of the fact both had terrible years in 2015. The tiffany stock falling 29 . Signet is off 6 . So why has the jewelry industrier suddenly gone off the rails . We looked over these two stocks. And it seemed like, the apparently Company Offer others setting itself apart. But then a month later, the number fell and it has been all downhill ever since. Sell, sell, sell. Meanwhile, tiffany has been in the dog house for ages. All last year the company cut its guidance repeatedly blaming the strong dollar. Now dollars basement flat year over year. Still thrashing around like a trapped animal. Whats going on . Remember we about the giant diamond mine was cutting . Er the most reason quarter in late may. Then earlier signet was mentioned most favorly from the grands Interest Rate which claimed they hadder put lower quality jewels or lost their stones entirely when people bring in their jewelry to be repaired or resized. I dont know. Trading the name. Grants called attention to the diamond purchases. Giving a lot more credit risks than they like in a retailer. Something that shocked viewers is we with the ceo. It seemed to scare people. At the same time tiffanys just had a lousy word. The company has been struggling with sales. They had the worst numbers. It is a lot. Ouch the only other news weve heard is that tiffany plans to boost it by reason pressures on the company. I like a good dividend like but i get on feeling these guys are trying to put on a brave face in a lousy situation. When it was just tiffany stinking up the joint last year, we could dismiss it as the problems of a single company. But with signet having problems, maybe theres Something Big going on. What caused it . Heres a company that had a long history of beating the wall street earnings estimates. So when they fell off the wagon in november, the stock was heavily penalized. Since then, they have continued to decelerate at a pretty alarming rate. At the time that purchase seemed so smart. In retrospect it looked like they brought zales pretty much near the peak. Weve heard that millennials prefer to spend their cash on experiences, not things, other than makeup, iphones and uber. And at the same time consumers of all stripes seem to be embracing value. It is not that just that sales are slow. Theres also the credit portfolio. They lend for to you buy this expensive jewels. And signet lost the financing to customers who prefer to pay for in it installments. Expensive stuff. That opens the company to risk, defaults. Grands talked about the portfolio but the overwhelming thesis is that the company has overextended credit to drive sales over the last few years. Something that helps explain it. What has changed . Weve seen a growing receivables base. Lending standards that were never changed after the financial crisis. No wonder people are worried. The company is defending it tooth and nail. The credit card company, so i mean there are questions. How about tiffany . No two ways about it. Theyve went wildly mismagd. They cant get anything right. All last year tiffany blamed the dollar for the woes saying at this time cost of sales overseas as well as in the united states. Now the dollar is flat year over year. Theyre going to need to find a new excuse. Unit related softness across all jewelry categories. The thing is in the midst of making excuses, tiffanys nevertheless offered no real game plan for turning things around. They assumed everything will get better. I bought my daughter a bracelet there. So is there any hope for these jewelry giants . I think signet is in trouble. Slowing vaels the one thing. But now the companys very reputation as a jewely merchant is in question and pass problem because reputation is everything in this business. Even if the allegations are false and theyre not swapping out the stones for cheaper ones, no one has heard this story will want to shop there. It is just a story. In order to combat the bad press, signet has come on the air, increasing the discounts which will hurt the numbers. A Strategic Review of the credit portfolio. Some analysts predict it might sell the whole credit portfolio. That could be a positive. Especially since they are trading, more like a bank than a retailer. Still, i am not sure that selling the credit portfolio will be enough to overcome all the other problems. As for tiffany, based on the lackadaisical conference calls, certainly led by the Customer Relations guy. Not anyone from the board. Im not sure there is a way forward. Granted the same store numbers should get ugly. That doesnt make up for the fact they dont seem to have a straflt heres the bottom line. At this point, signet has gone from market darling. It seem like it should have more upside. But that gem swapping story and the credit portfolio worries, they suggest we dont really have a handle on how bad things might be. Sounds like more down side. Do you know what i say in stay away from both these jewelry giants. It wont hurt you. Much more ahead. Ill tell you how the credit card giant who once reigned supreme is facing a wholesaler. I suggest you stick with cramer. Tokyostyle ramen noodles. Freshly made in the japanese tradition, each batch is small. Special. Unique. Every bowl blurring the line between food. And art. When you cook with incredible ingredients. You make incredible meals. Fresh ingredients. Stepbysteprecipes. Delivered to your door. Get your first two meals free blueapron. Com cook. If youre one of the millions who shops like me at costco, today is the day of the big credit card switchover. After 17year long partnership, costco no longer accepts American Express. They only take visa. That means all the Loyalty Cards are being replaced by visa Loyalty Cards by citigroup. Er even if youre just using your credit card, costco will only take visa although you can use a credit card by anybody. Given the billion in revenue last year, this is a huge chunk of business thats going away. Plus all the Credit Card Debt from all those old cards, 10. 5 billion has been acquired by citigroup. This is kind of investable story that is easy to notice. My wife heard about it at the check out counter two weeks ago. That doesnt mean you should go out and buy vees and sell American Express the moment you get home from costco with your groceries. Thats too stupid, too easy. Once you get an idea like this, do the homework. Figure out how to profit from it. Especially its been in the works for a year. Its not like, how did that happen . How do we play the transition aside from racking up debt . 3 back old jibl restaurant travel purchases, two back on all the purses from costco and 1 from everything elseful lets take a step back and see what this means for everyone involved. For starters, the stock fell 6. 4 the day the divorce from costco was announced in february of 2015. You know, it has continued to trend lower ever since. Down 86 to 62. That may sound harang but American Express has lost a big chunk of business. 12 million in costco related loans. And i think most importantly in many ways, the potential for many more cards as part of the Costco International expansion. To be fair, that is just one problem of many for amx. Companies facing the same head winds including every institution. Costco isnt even the only big partner they lost. They lost with jet blue. And same, falling behind as far as technology them got complacent. Who can blame them . Its a great brand. Innovative new ways to make Global Payments and transfer onhine. How about costco . The stock is up mildly since they announced the credit card transition. Visa makes a much better partner than American Express ask this switch will save costco millions in interchange fees. But at the he said of the day this is not what is driving the stock. Right now costco is dealing with a not so hot retail environment. It would have been up with the declining gasoline prices. Those two have done a number on the retail. But as we enter the second half of 2016. Oil has rebounded substantially. Plus, this is a moment where consumers crave bargains. Dollar tree, go on. And costco has the best bargains around. You think the biggest winner would be visa which has seen its stock rally 14 since we learned they were getting the business. Visa has been chiming ever since and it is currently just a few points off its all time highs. The fact is, visa has been pen if itting two other factors. First, it is what i call faux financial. They dont actually behind people money. The profits come from taking a very small amount. That means visa is the kind that Money Managers can safely buy when Interest Rates are near historic lows. The second positive is that the company noumsed it was acquiring visa. So putting it all together, who set the benefit is most there this gigantic change . I think the switch over is a bigger win for costco than for anybody else. Why is that . First of all, the deal will save costco anywhere from 110 to 220 million. Thanks to lower interchange visa. Second, the new visa rewards card backed by citigroup gives customers a better deal. That could cause people to shop at costco more frequently. Plus, switching dramatically expands the base of potential costco shoppers. Before today you could only use a credit card at costco if you had an amx which is costly to get. Now you can use visa instead and it has a much Larger User Base potentially opening the door to millions more customers. It doesnt hurt that it is happening right when the head winds of gas price deflation and the dhar is start to go abate. If it happens, it will likely only be this quarter. So costco breaks it. Dont wait for me to pull the trigger. Visa just too darn big. Losing costco hurt the smaller american base than the big visa. But it is still a positive for these guys. In addition, over 100 billion from costco doesnt hurt the bottom line. I adore visa but winning costcos business is a sea in the positives. The, amx is losing the business is probably baked into the prices. With confidentco officially switching today, you would think visa is the biggest winner. The most significant positives belong to costco which got a really great deal when it switched credit card providers and theyre about to start seeing the gains with the changes going

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