Transcripts For CNBC Mad Money 20170316 : vimarsana.com

Transcripts For CNBC Mad Money 20170316

Yarn about a letter hidden in plain sight that nevertheless cant be detected because people just arent looking for it in the right places. We see the same thing happens with this market pretty much every day now. Great bull stories passing unnoticed right in front of your eyes. Today was no different. Even as the dow dipped 16 points, s p declined 0. 16 , nasdaq actually closed up albeit fractionally. Let me give you some classic examples. When investors try to figure out why stocks should go up, they begin with the presumption that the United States is a service economy. Since twothirds of our Gross Domestic Product depends on individual spending. But heres the problem. The big time portfolio managers, they dont see any real strength in consumer spending. They dont see it with all the retail store they follow. They dont see it at the restaurants they cover. They dont see it in the home sales. They dont see it in the shopping center, shopping mall, or strip Mall Real Estate investment trusts. Theyre baffled, confused because they know employment is way up and more hiring is supposed to be translating into better than expected Service Revenues. I feel like even janet yellen, who is doing a remarkable job at the helm of the federal reserve, is confused about why things dont feel as strong in the economy as youd expect given the robust employment rolls. That kind of came up during that back and forth with the quarter point raise. You hear a myriad of excuses about why the consumer is not doing her part despite having a job. The noisiest answer, the republican answer is obamacare, aka the unaffordable care act, which theyre busy trying to scrap and replace, emphasis on the word trying. They say too much of the consumers money goes to health care because of the government so people are too strapped to buy anything else. Others say its because of the rising price of education and the shackles of student loans. Still others blame the stunted household formation from kids still living with their parents long after they graduated high school or college because of the Great Recession. Theres the new frugality theory not unlike how our parents or grandparents or great grandparents who lived through the Great Depression never felt sure enough to spend excessively or borrow again. And then theres just the plain old chinese and mexicans took our job thesis that helped get donald trump elected as president of the United States. Im not disputing any of these factors. Im sure theyve all played a negative role. But the simple fact is employment is too strong for me to believe these issues can still counteract what should be a natural uptick in consumer spending. So lets spend some time on this. See, i think the real problem is Something Else entirely. Its the purloined letter of how this money is spent and where it is spent. And it is spent that matters. First theres a massive generational shift that many of the older and more senior trigger pullers in the Money Management business as well as the sell side analysts and even the ceos and fed officials, they cant seem to grasp it even though its right in front of them. It all starts with your cell phone, especially your apple cell phone. These devices have replaced so much of what we used to do with our time, including what many people half joked was our national pastime, remember this, shopping . People always made that joke. First lets consider the smartphone, the one itself, the actual device. My wife just baud a 750 jet back iphone 7. I had to hear about the price because when you spend 750 on anything except for perhaps a canada goose coat, which she also has, it comes up. She also gave me an earful about all the Monthly Service charges that seem to come up automatically on your email and you got to pay them for things we know we need but she thinks they should be for free. All together youre laying out close to 1,000 bucks, a g, when you buy this phone. Thats real cash that cant be spent elsewhere, but a smartphone is simply indispensable. Most people cant live without one. An iphone is the most prized and cherished purchase any american makes, perhaps after his car or home. But somehow the professionals, perhaps because theyre so wealthy or they get the phone from work, dont realize how much of a regular persons disposable income goes to their apple phone. Look at your phone. Look at all those apps. Today i was watching patty doyle, the ceo of dominos on power lunch. And thinking about the more than 170 points this stock has rallied since we recommended it when he first came on the show when he started back in march of 2010. Im going to leave out the special dividends but those were helpful too. First doyle fixed the taste of the pizza, which had been consistently losing out in taste tests against the Cardboard Box it came in. Then he turned dominos into a technology factory, one that brings pizzas to your house by creating apps that made it so easy to order via your computer or your phone. This new generation, it doesnt like to talk to people on the phone. They like to text. They like to input. They particularly like to go to their Facebook Page and place orders for pizzas. Dominos isnt the only one of course. Pretty much every large chain needs to figure out how to deliver its food to you or at least let you pick it up if it isnt going to shrink. There are a ton of companies weve examined including postmates. They make a living catering to their stay at home patrons. Now eating is only one reason to go out. The other is to shop. We were always under the impression that shopping was inure blood. It turned out thats not true. I think we in this nation have had a massive blood transfusion out of type a, b, and o and into amazon blood. Amazon has changed everything. We go on our cell phones and we browse and get the lowest price, which is typically from amazon, and we have it shipped to our door. If you live in the city, this is a godsend. It hadnt been all that important if you live in the suburbs until you get a couple of snowstorms, some traffic jams, some difficulties getting a parking spot and ultimately even getting in the car became inconvenient versus having what you want delivered to your door when you want it. Convenience is everything with these new generations. I dont care about convenience. I dont think about it as much. These people, theyre just possessed by convenience. Plus what happens if you go out and shop . What happens if you go out at all, unless youre doing pokemon go, it breaks up what youre doing which is bingeing on programs from netflix or playing video games from take 2 nertwo interactive. Its easier for you to check facebook, instagram or snap at home. Its also getting easier to yell at alexa to get information, tell her to do something than to stand up. You dont have to stand up. I got alexa. Ive stopped standing. I mean alexa is right there. Yeah, its kind of joined the family. Alexa is just as smart as bug and everest. Those two knuckle head dogs. Alexa is much smarter and boy does she ever not beg for food. Anyway, yes, theres still some shopping. If youre spending that much time in your house, youre going to spruce it up a little so youre going to hit home depot and lowes or tgxs home goods to make your surroundings as nice as possible. Thats why those three have terrific numbers. Goldman sachs took tgx from buy to strong buy today. So what does pry the typical consumer off that couch, the one that shes e poxcied too . Trips to theme parks, hence why six flags, universal, comcast ufrl theme parks are jammed to the gills. How about cruise ships . Carnival and Royal Caribbean are like sold out. Whats the deal with those experiences . Well, they make for fabulous instagram and snap fashion show. Theyre ideal facebook moments. Theyre killler selfie backgrounds. Before we go out, what do we do . We head to ulta beauty, the only major retailer to hit its 52week high today. You think that is just happenstance . Or we go to e. L. F. Yeah, ears, lips face. Elf beauty, which reported a blowout quarter because you cant go out the door unless you put makeup on. You are naked without makeup these days. Ever notice . You think i just put this on for the show . I never take it off. Its all over my pillow when i wake up in the morning. Oh, sure, you do got to go out for food. So you sha lep to walmart or visit Dollar General which reported some terrific food numbers today. I bet you most of the rich guys didnt know they sell food. Its little packages, but, yeah, i mean that food business is growing like wild to meet demands. You think any of these professionals even though what a Dollar General or dollar tree looks like . Do they even know that it sells food . How the heck do i know . Well, the Conference Calls help, but i like buying the food. All right, this is an alternative, sane business show. Pop and i always shopped at dollar tree. Pop introduced it to me. I mean its what we did. What are we doing today, jimmy . I dont know, pop. Hey, are we going to go to dollar tree . Were going to buy those fake ray bans. And we did that endlessly. Lets get some more fake ray bans. They break, so you got to have a lot of them. Anyway, how do you think i ended up making all this money . Going to whole foods . No dollar tree. Heres the bottom line. The confusion over where the consumer went all starts with your iphone and your netflix and your facebook, and your amazon. Hey, fang. Yeah, you google things, point of purchase. If you follow that trail, youll notice the consumer hasnt gone away one bit. Shes just not being counted although adobe, which had a blowout quarter tonight, does have the great numbers. Shes not being counted because shes hiding right in front of your nose in the last place the professional money manager would think to look. There. David in nevada, david. Caller hey, jim. Thanks for having me. Booyah. Booyah. Caller i bought ticker frc, First Republic bank a couple years ago. I expected it to go up yesterday when the fed announced the rates and it was the only one in my portfolio that went down. Is it time to let it go . Look, people are greedy, david. David from nevada. Although of course this went up. They all went up today because upon further review, people realized wait a second. You dont need that three rate hikes. Well take two plus this one and First Republic is going up. Its a point away from its 52week high. Hold it. Lets go to nancy in north carolina, nancy. Caller hi, jim. Nancy, whats up . Caller id just like to say i appreciate so much that you educate, not just give opinions. Right. I mean geez, this stuff is so dry. How could you ever listen to a oneman show on business if you didnt entertain . Well, tonight the price to earnings multiple at 3m whats up . Caller my question is about taser and the defense sector. Its gone down about 5 1 2 in the last month, but theres no news about it neither negative oar positive. Even after trumps budget numbers for defense, it still went down today. So whats happening with that stock . I went over the quarter. I mean the quarter is fine. You know, this is like knee jerk profit taking. Im going to urge you to stick with taser. I think people feel like that they are not winning enough contracts. Like they have to win a contract every day. Its a good, wellrun company. I dont want you to throw it out. I want you to keep it. All right. It is clear as day, people. You got to follow the trail. The consumer is still here. She is hiding in plain sight where rich people dont know where to find her. On mad money tonight, canada goose is selling more than just 900 parkas in new york and toronto this year. After its first day on trading on a really cold day, so lucky. Ill tell fu it could offer more than just fluff and feathers. Then giddyup. The fourhourmen tech are riding again. Can you believe it . But are they all worth saddling up to . Ill tell you which companies could be riding higher. And fasten all has been constructing a fast and furious rally. So after years of underperformance, is it time to consider this stock youve never heard of . Im taking a closer look. And im entertaining. Stick with cramer announcer dont miss a second of mad money. Follow jimcramer on twitter. Have a question . Tweet cramer, madtweets. Send jim an email to madmoney cnbc. Com or give us a call at 1800743cnbc. Miss something . Head to madmoney. Cnbc. Com. Oh the things you say oh youre unbelievab e youre unbelievab e the retail environment may be very difficult right now, particularly for apparel. But today we got a red hot sizzling apparel ipo. It still roared higher. Im talking about canada goose, symbol goos. The maker of ultrahigh end outer wear. If you live in new york city, youve probably seen their furlined parkas with that little round insignia proclaiming youre a member of a very expensive club. The deal price at 12. 78 on the nyse, and then the stock spiked up to 18 at the open. But ultimately closed at 16. 08. I got to tell you this is a very intriguing story because while much of retail is in terrible shape here, there are some luxury plays that are doing quite well, and canada goose is the first luxury goods maker to come public in quite some time. So could the stock actually be worth buying up at these levels or do we need to get more cautious after a big firstday run . I think while canada goose may be a wild trader in the near term, this stock could absolutely be worth speculating on. Yes, its a buy, and ill tell you why. First for those of you who just arent interested in the fur and down here, lets flesh the story out a bit. Canada goose makes furlined coats and parkas that can sell for hundreds or even thousands of dollars while the companys mostly a wholesaler, it does have two flagship stores, one in toronto and one in new york that it opened last year. What made this ipo enticing to investors . I think some of it is this is the kind of brand that Money Managers tend to be aware of. These coats are not sold at dollar tree. But thats not necessarily the basis for a good investment. Awareness helped push the snap ipo up big in its first day. Then the stocks been a wreck ever since. That was those millennials. Whats with the millennials . I mean theyre like blamed for everything. Anyway, theres a lot more to this story than the simple fact that many Hedge Fund Managers and their spouses probably love fur. The truth is canada goose has a lot going for it. For starters, the company has a compelling brand that resonates with its customers because canada goose has built up a reputation for authenticity over many decades by helping explorers, scientists, athletes, and film crews handle harsh environments. They make an incredibly high quality product, and these parkas are generally beloved by the people who buy them. Plus the company has been expanding from just a wholesaler that supplies various retailers worldwide to having a direct to consumer business where they use the web to cut out the middle man and sell to individuals. And canada goose is very disciplined about controlling the supply of product that they put out so that they can maintain their super high prices. More importantly, the numbers here are very compelling. In 2016 fiscal year, canada goose saw its sales grow at a 33 clip, and in the latest nine months, sales increased by more than 41 . Thats a pretty fabulous acceleration, especially when you consider what a warm winter its been. Even after the ridiculous recent cole snap. If you want to know why the stock roared today, keep in mind Money Managers adore accelerating revenue growth. Canada goose has it. Meanwhile the companys gross margin has been steadily climbing for some time. You know the Money Managers like that too. In 2016, the gross margin came in at 50. 1, up a staggering 950 basis points yearoveryear, in part thanks to the companys higher margin direct to consumer business. Then in the 2017 fiscal year, their Gross Margins came in at 52. 3 . Thats up another 140 basis points yearoveryear. Even after last years quantum leap in profitability, they keep Getting Better and better and making it less expensive to put out those coats. Put it all together, and you end up with some terrific Earnings Growth even as it slowed somewhat over the last couple years. In the first nine months of 2017 fiscal year, canada goose saw its earnings rise by 26 . Admittedly its down from an 83 growth rate in 2016, but i wouldnt be discouraged by that deceleration because canada goose only just became profitable in 2015. And when youre growing off a small base, the numbers will always, always, always taper off, okay . Once you start, and then hard to keep maintaining that traject y trajectory. Combine all of this, though, and youve got a company with accelerating revenue growth, rising Gross Margins, and genuine profitability. That is a powerful winning combination that we rarely see among new ipos. Thats what intrigues me so much here. If canada goose can keep executing like this, then i wouldnt be at all surprised if the stock ends up having a lot more upside. And i see a number of reasons why this growth could continue. First, canada goose has developed a tried and true strategy for entering new markets. They introduce the brand, build Awareness Among a select group of new customers and then use word of mouth to bring in more people, something that works because their parkas are really fabulous even if peta hates them for the fur they use. The Company Currently sells its merchandise in 36 countries, so theyve still got plenty of room to expand geographically. At the same time, canada goose plans to find additional Retail Partners to sell their wares worldwide, and if the stuff is in more stores, there will be even better numbers. Plus even in countries where the Company Already does business, management believes they have tremendous room to increase their market share. We know the companys recent investments in canada and the United States have paid off big time, delivering some truly outstanding numbers. If they can duplicate that success worldwide, this could be an incredible mult

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