Tyler mathisen. Coming up, a. I. Has been one of the big stories of 2023, maybe even the biggest. It is not going away next year. Far from it. For questions on how to use, it regulated, how to make money off of it, our panel will answer those questions and offer some investment advice. And risky business, the ceo will join us. Plus, the into impact of tariffs, and what he sees on the trends on the alcohol industry. People choosing marijuana over booze . Lets check out the markets. Stocks are once again melting higher. The dow, 37,700 for the first time. Another new record. The s p 500, short of their, highs only about ten points. The nasdaq, 100 waited to the bigger names. Those record levels themselves, up more than 50 this year. The question is not just when will this rally end, but how and, how badly. To bring in more, mike santoli. Im not sure i like the phrasing of that question. It presumes the rallying must end. Eventually all rallies do. It suggests it will end soon. That is by no means assured. Im with, you tyler. You dont necessarily you dont have to treat record highs, assuming we get there within a few points relatively soon in the s p 500 as indication to say when this is going to be over. Obviously, difficult to project either way. Either way around, its amazingly symmetrical. Almost exactly two years ago, write down 25 , in ten months, up 33 in the s p 500. Over 14 months. It is remarkable that two months ago, it was plausible to say that i am not sure this is really a bull market. Im not really sure that we have a significant run in october of 2022, just because it was such a narrow market and was not operating the way that it should. Bank shots were down from that point, never happened before. It has been a little bit of a rescue of this idea that it is a home market of some description. Even if it ended very soon, you would call it a brief bull market. The stuff they would knock it off course, which is excessively bullish sentiment and positioning, it is not good timing tools. Evaluations are not certainly all attractive, but also not below two years ago when we fell off of those levels. Of course, those macro backdrops for now seem friendly. The burden of proof for the moment seems to be on those that say the economy is going to turn hostile very soon. All, right mike. Stay with us as we bring in a new guest for more on this year end rally, and how to position for 2024. Lets welcome jeremy bryant, portfolio management. Jeremy, welcome number one, i would like to get your reaction of what michael just said there. You say that it would be difficult to say the s p can continue at the magnitude that we are experiencing right now. At the same time, you point out that right now, with regard to Market Performance one year after a big year, higher than 20 gain in the s p 500. Stocks are still up in the following year, 65 of the time, and the average return in those years including the down years is about 9 . That suggests that 2024, while we may have a correction, might not be a bad year at all. Yes. That is absolutely right, you nailed it. That is our opinion. Just because you have a good year, does not mean the next year is bad. We have been on a little bit of a seesaw, as mike said before. We had a massive down year, and then a really good year. It does not mean that we have to continue on that trajectory. In fact, i think and hope that we can normalize to a certain extent. A 9 mark it is a normal market. Do we get that very often . Usually not. We end up getting highs and lows, usually get do not get nine or 10 with all that often. Those numbers that youve, you better than 54 of the time were positive again the next year, even after a big year. From our perspective, we are saying to have a safety net and be cautious and understand that certain things are very expensive, certain things are still a relative bargain. There are still opportunities out there, and does not mean doom and gloom for 2024. Mike, what would you add . Hearing about this idea, i thought that brent put it well earlier, this question about are we going to make a double talk . Or should we expect with this kind of momentum we are experiencing, stop skip typically keep going . Usually strong strong returns for a while, we get further strong returns. All of that being said, im not sure the market on a longer term basis really owes a investors a tremendous amount. The three year trailing s p is about 10 . Is not like youre digging out of a deep hole if youve been a buy and hold investor. Five years, youre up 16 annual. In other words, its not as if this market has been down in the dumps, and is something that needs a recovery effort. I do think that we have to keep in mind, every, year calendar years, upset many percent of the time. Usually, you have some kind off. Im not sure if you want to pencil in the most bullish gains. I think the biggest questions me still in the late cycle . How long is it late . Have we somehow gotten the fountain of youth based on the fed pivot, and we are back in midcycle . That is going to define how we absorb whatever comes at us in the way of the growth and inflation numbers. Jeremy, i wonder to pick up on what mike said about Interest Rates and so forth. It is an awful lot of expectation about lower Interest Rates, seemingly baked into where we are right now. 150 to 175 basis point cuts, maybe six Interest Rate cuts. That means every meeting they are going to cut basically if they do a quarter point at a time. That feels a little fantasyland to me. Yes, i think the people need to calm down on it a little bit. They were going the other way for months ago. In the effect of having to assume rate increases. Now they are assuming that kind of rate increases, i dont see it. What ive been saying is what if the fed doesnt cooperate . What would the Market Reaction be if the fed does not cooperate as you seem to suggest it may not . Yes, i mean, i think that normalization can absolutely happen. You could get a short term correction as a result of that, absolutely. From our perspective, that is the buying opportunity. As we are looking at that and saying that the fed is not cutting, they are not cutting because Economic Trends are still okay, we still have a good amount of jobs. Maybe they are not cutting as aggressively as we have anticipated. As corporate earnings still come in, and Market Sentiment is generally driving us with productivity, i do not think that that is in and of itself the catalyst for a fake climate going forward, saying that the fed is not cutting as aggressively. In fact, in our opinion, the fed is thats probably bad, because probably your Economic Trends are going a little bit. Michael, lets talk about the broadening of the market, how you see that and interpret that since the mid fall. And other small cap measures have gone very nicely. The equal waited s p has been outperforming. That is a pretty good sign, isnt it . Yes, absolutely. Probably the chief complaint of observers of the market going into that period is that the average stock had really set out for this rally. Europe about 6 for the s p year to date. That is almost all since september 1st. Clearly a major catch it. The big question for me, im not sure that we can continue to think about this market as either or. It is either a magnificent 7 market, or and Everything Else mark it. As we have seen, since the bottom in the fall, the large growth stops have also participated. They are not in active use for either. I think theres a way to basically have nobody be right if youre picking one of the other. Jeremy, a couple of your stock choices based on the forecast include companies in medical care and health insurance. I believe sigma is one of, them United Health care and other. Why do you think those are likely to outperform next year . The real thing, to mikes point, we have not really seen their level of participation. These are companies that are still growing, 8 to 12, even higher than that range. That is what we are really looking at now, as we do get a broadening out, as mike said before, the companies that we want to be involved in that are going to be participating to a greater extent in that broadening out. We think that companies who have not participated quite as well up to this point and still have a Solid Earnings growth characteristic, thats where you want to be. Health, because of the gdp owens that have really worked this year in health care, those are the really the areas where the other stocks have been kind of left alone and not participated. Meanwhile, the Growth Profile is still looking pretty good going forward. All, right thank you both. We appreciate your time. Jeremy bryant and michael santoli. Bond yields have been tumbling, taking a pause today. The ten year yield about 3. 8 down. In chicago with more. I have not asked you about the dollar, rick, but its been quite weak. Yes, it has been quite weak. It is down on the year. That should not be a surprise to anybody, as of course Interest Rates and the robust tightening cycle of the fed certainly did put a tailwind on the dollar that has now disappointed. The seven year note option, lets look at your seven. It jumps out at you, 1 00 eastern. Everything changed and the entire curve reversed because the auction did not go well. It is the last of the options, and many times you get a bit of an outsized response. Lets not forget, Interest Rates have been awfully well behaved. If you look at the same seven year, the aforementioned, yesterdays close was the lowest yield close going back to the first part of june. We will call it six and a half months. Finally, if you look at what is going on with tens, i find this very interesting. We have had a wild year. Look at the ranges. At the top, we basically touched 5 . On the bottom, we hit 3 30 and we settled last year, the last trading day, 3. 8 8 . We are darn close to unchanged on the year. If you look at the yield growth, twos to tens, as many of us do, it closed at minus 55 for 2022. It is right now hovering at minus 43, less inverted. Thats because the leadership role of Interest Rates moving down has been taken up by the two year and closely aligned with the fed. That means that for 2024, you should be very observant of a potential steepening yield curve, because long rates may definitely side on the depth side of the equation, meaning that that would keep them much more lofty than many are anticipating, because they assume the fed is down, and all Interest Rates will do what the fed is doing, going down. Thats not necessarily the case. Kelly, tyler, back to you. Happy new year, rick. We will see you next year. Coming, up apple has always been a tech giant, but this, year that lapped in the a. I. Race, as the hype and money was on direct a. I. Plays like nvidia and others. Up, next with the company can do to fix it. Plus, which chip names in the a. I. Chip race . Followed that and more when power lunch dives a little bit deeper into a i. All right, tandy, whats it gonna be, the drink made from whatever was laying around, or the one made with your drizzly haul . Drizly welcome back to power lunch. Stock up today, sip well, tomorrow. Drizly. One of the big stories for the market this year, of course, it was the rise of the magnificent seven. The seven big tech names driving the markets for better or for worse. Cnbcs tracking those names, up 100 this year. Those gains led by nvidia and meta, both of which have tripled. Microsoft and apple are the laggers in this group, although 50 still being good. That news, what about 2024 . Our delivering outlet investors, strategists, and early contributors for the mega seven names leading the way in the 2024. Microsoft got nearly half the votes, and apple was tied for last. For a look at why the markets have soured on apple, lets bring in steve kovach from the nasdaq. Steve, what can they do to fix it . And like you said, 48 is nothing to shake a stick at their. And of those names, you can look at them. The biggest question for apple in 2024, can it return their growth . Thats because we just got over four straight quarters of finding and on top of, that the current december quarter, apple is said to expect sales to be flat. Despite that, shares are up about 30 on the year, and going into 2024, we have some good news which can help apple, and some bad news that can make it harder to return to growth. Lets start with the bad news first. Headwinds of china, thats really the big one here. Huawei, returning online, starting to sell phones, again showing indications that people are switching back from my phone to the huawei android phones. Plus, the Online Gaming crackdown by the government, that can impact the app store. Also, overall what they can see throughout the, year slower economic recovery among the chinese consumers. Now lets look over to the u. S. The apple watch ban, still being worked out despite being yesterday. And going in through the sale today. Just one more here, the European Union digital market which is going to go into full force next year, which will force a lot of changes in apples app store, hurting its massive Profit Margins there. Speaking of services, that growth has been reaccelerating again. Its a high market business, up 16 in the september quarter. That is really good news for apple and getting back for the growth. On the hardware side, singles to pc and phone demand might have bottomed out after all of that pandemic buying. That might put a damper on things over the last couple years. Look, heres whats not going to move the needle, the new vision pro headset we have been talking about for so long. Its going to be a small launch coming out in the u. S. , probably as soon as february at first. It is not going to be a mass market device, estimates at about 5000 units for 2024. Still, a vision of the future, maybe something to Pay Attention to, guys. And i wonder if they will do anything else, steve, to maybe a i watch, if i can put it that way. Maybe highlighting those aspects of their ecosystem that would most benefit from the continued option of the technology. That is another big question, and im glad you asked that. Tyler brought that up in a tease before the commercial. The big question is, what is apple going to do with this generative a. I. Boom . Weve been seeing some hints of it, some reports in the New York Times last week saying they are trying to train their large language models, similar to what chatgpt has on media organizations, and in fact paying to license that content. We already know about that whole world that is going through with microsoft and openai in the New York Times. But look, who knows . Does that mean that some sort of supercharged series that they can charge for . Doesnt mean creating new tools for developers to make it easier for Iphone Developers to kind of tap into the a. I. Large language model that apple made . We really dont know. Expect, kelly, if they are going to do something, june is the annual developers conference. That will be a good time for the announcers to really Pay Attention to that one. I dont like to criticize apple, because i usually end up eating my words on it. I have to say, if they intend to charge for siri, they have to get serious about siri. It is not competitive right now. It is nowhere close to the capabilities of chatgpt, what they can do, but heres the thing about siri. Apple is very cognizant about getting the answers right. They are so protective of their image. Early on in the early days of siri, you would get things wrong and they would have to run in and correct it manually. They want to get it right, that is my suspicion. Thats what i suspect at least, and why we havent seen that kind of product. We do hear from tim cook over and over again, they are playing around with this technology. They have that idea for 2024. Better be right than fast. Hey siri, did you hear what tyler just said about you . I dont think that shes going to be very happy. Did she respond . No, because she cant. She cant process the large language model. All right, steve. See you, man, thank you. Further ahead, will you get your whiskey neat or messy . Net space facing troubles with the potential tariffs on american exported whiskey. Its being delayed. Higher prices, shrinking Alcohol Consumption, what can those businesses expect in the new year . Plus, late taking a hit during the ev craze. Lithium was the hot trade. This year, it took a freefall. Prices down around 80 . What does this say about the future of ev . We will break down that one, next. Lithium was supposed to be the centerpiece of the ev future. As demand for evs as cooled a bit, so has the price for lithium stocks. The lip etf, you have to love that one, its down 10 this year. As stevens, now a look at lithium in 2024. Ev had a wild ride this year, and so did lithium. At the beginning of the, year stock prices topped 70,000 according to benchmark. Today, theyre trading under 16,000. That is a decline of nearly 80 . Prices started rising at the beginning of 2021 as forecaster said that there would be shortages, which pushed prices up nearly 8 in the span of just three years. Now theyre is too much inventory slowing the demand, and lizzy company stockpiled lithium, but they are still working through just as the demand slows. Plus, the supply came online faster than expected, in part because skyhigh prices made projects that would otherwise be not acquit economically viable. As the bank put it, its a perfect storm of headwinds. There could be more declines ahead given that we are entering a seasonally week period before chinas new Lunar New Year in february. Key players like alum are, lie them, and sq, am catching a good month, but still in the red for 2023. We have seen this with commodity cycles before. Everyone gets, and gets dropped, theres no investment, yada yada yada. I whats interesting, there are companies that invested in the big projects, assuming that the price was going to be staying high. They are now in a bad place, right . Theyve always been very careful, with those lithium projections, is because there is so much volatility. Nobody in the industry thought that 1800 percent increase was good. Over three years, its just too much. Nothing kills high prices like high prices. Its not good either, but they were certainly banking on continued upside. They changed their contract structures from long