Transcripts For CNBC Power Lunch 20130102 : vimarsana.com

CNBC Power Lunch January 2, 2013

Same to you, scott. We start this hour with breaking news for only the fifth time in history. The dow is up triple digits on the first day of trade willing for the new year. Lets see if it holds. Hello and happy 2013 to everybody. Happy 2013, if you are long the market today, im tyler mathisen. Hey, ty. Im becky quick. Republicans dont love the fiscal cliff. Democrats dont love this deal either but wall street does at least for today. Why dont we look at where things stand right now. You will see the dow industrials are up by 223 point. S p 500 up by about 24 and again these markets have been holding this throughout the day. Nasdaq up by 66 points. Gold up by 12. 70 to 1,688 an ounce. Yield is higher up, and lets go live to bob who is live on the new york stock exchange. Bob, happy new year. Happy new year. Er with near what traders called a 90 upside die. 90 of stocks on the upside and volume. Take a look at whats been going on here. I will show you a lot of sectors at highs here. In some cases multiyear highs. Historic highs for the russell 20000. Also new highs in Home Building stocks. And sectorially financial stocks like bank stocks as well as materials also at 52week highs. Take a look at solar stocks. Becky got a lot of questions about why are all of the solar stocks up so much today. There are tax breaks for Renewable Energy in the fiscal cliff year. Specifically for wind and biodiesel, a lot of people are extrapolating and there will be cuts in subsidies. I know becky, what everyone will say on the headlines. Stocks up on fiscal cliff deal. All i want to point out if you look at the numbers and stocks have been up big on the first trading day the last four years, all im saying is that is probably the major factor here. Back to you. I tell you, keep is here on the first day of trading. My true love gave to me a statistic that will blow your mind. Listen to this, bob. Here you go. If the s p closes up double digits for the ppreceding year s negative like 2012 and if a lefthanded oboe player is playing, the index is una hundred percent of the time in the following year with average gain of 12. 5 . You got me there . It looks like we will be up 12. 5 . He used to be an independent trader but is beginning a new deal with oneill securities today. Thank you very much. Thank you very much. Which means he will be with us. That is a good thing. As you forecast a look ahead to 2014, what kind of year do you expect . I think a better year. Economist, strategists are talking about how the economies around the world, we now have this partial deal on the fiscal cliff with more to come for sure but my sense is it just feels better. We might have a rough couple of months here but overall it is feeling better. It feels like we put a nickel against this deal and we got 95 cents more to pay. And three other big things to deal with. The sequester, debt limit and continuing resolution, basically funding. The debt limit and i think thats going to be the big worry in the next two months. But for the moment, remember the markets can go up and down on a dime these days and we will deal with these issues next. You can make a lot of money between new and then. One thing you have to say kenny is at least there is certainty as far as individual tax rates go. What is still left uncertain is what cuts are coming and who gets hurt the most and so there is a lot of uncertainty. Yes, certainty on the tax side, great. Like you said, the rally is a relief but i also think the first day, new year, new money coming in. But i think you will get it is a a month this month. Right to 1445 up 1. 7 today, about the average we have seen in the last four years. Thank you very much. Becky, back to you. Thank you, guys. We will go sector by sector, folks. Seeing impact on stocks throughout the hour. Starting things out with jackie deangelo. What are you seeing so far, jackie . Happy new year, becky. Thank you. There is more clarity when it comes to dividend taxation and that is good for markets. Investors can expect the tax race to rise from 15 to 20 and that compared to the expectation that dividends could be taxed like ordinary income which could take the top rate over 40 . In anticipation of the fiscal cliff, more than 250 Companies Either accelerated dividends or paid out special dividends val id at 38 billion. On average selling off 2 of 2012 according to morning star. Com. Generally analysts are saying they are confident that they are likely to see investment in dividend stocks in 2013 and income production investments over some of the less attractive alternatives out there. Seeing big bounces today we are watching stocks like microsoft, chevron, china mobile, showing gains of more than 1 . Pepsi j a j. We have clarity on some issues. But before we get too carried away, this agreement did not address the issue of spending cuts and did not address the debt ceiling debate, instead only delayed the issues for the next two months. Steve, this brings us to the big question. Everybody is looking at this. Is this a big march madness fight. I know, i know. I was hoping we could pour a drink before this. Folks, at home, pour it because you need it because you need it with this to say. While we technically hit it monday, we need a little breathing room. Here is the story. There is a hundred billion dollars. Extraordinary measures get it 200 billions. That delays the dawn of the debt ceiling by 2w0 two months. Officials caution that this timeframe is highly variable. They are not officially putting a time table on how long they hold out before the treasury stops issuing debt. In 2011 the amount of treasury dealt grew by 195 billion in october and as little as 78 billion in july. You can see it is highly variable. January pretty light month for issuance. February an march among the heaviest meaning the debt ceiling showdown could come sooner. On the other side it could help the treasury state under the limit, moves made last year, jackie was just talking about that. So the dividend stocks before the taxes come in to avoid this years higher taxes could mean a windfall of tax receipts for the treasury and higher withhold be by wealthy people because of the tax hikes. Should be more tax payments. Bottom line, government is not better than weather forecasting, telling us what will happen. In 2011, they thought we would run out of money in july but turned out to be august. We will hit the cliff. And it sets up as becky projected for march fiscal madness. Will had administration say, you know what, it offset by the hikes. The administration argue for new revenue in exchange for cuts . Becky . One interesting question with this one mentioned maybe the government revenue would be higher because of new taxes but with everybody moving those dividends up earlier with some things could it throw things off so you see lower revenue than expected in the First Quarter . Just from a tiny no, you have this windfall that will get you into remember that will come in this year. Here is another interesting tid built. Republicans will say, you know what, this tax deal we had raised the deficit by 4 trillion. The administration will say, you know what, it lowers the deficit by a with the starting point. One is an absolute, one uses the march 12 baseline. They are both right. Tyler, back to you. Thank you. Wall street is watching washington closely and so are the ratings agencies. Mary thompson has been calling big names all day long. Mary, what you are finding . Hey tyler. Washington has been a focus of rating agencies for over a year now, two years really and the small deal to raise taxes on upper income households will do nothing to soften that. Strategists say two rating agencies could cut their rates. And if Congress Fails to reach an agreement on dealing with the countrys longterm debt. Keep in mind, u. S. Cut its debt rating from double a to triple a a year ago august. Another downgrade is likely. It will maintain the outlook if it doesnt stabilize the u. S. Debt trajectory within three to five years. Moody rates u. S. Debt triple a but warns of downgrade this year if problem of longterm debt is not addressed as does fitch which earlier saw falling over fiscal cliff as biggest threat to u. S. And global economy. Now its focus, should the u. S. Fail to slow the growth of debt, it could likely result in the u. S. Losing the triple a status from fitch. U. S. Debt to gdp is on track rise in excess of 90 . What strategies say they want it see is stabilize around current levels but that means spending cuts have to be put in place and the magic number in total of either total taxes or spending cuts is 4 trillion. So given the deal we struck yesterday is 600 to 700 billion there as a way to go. If there are additional down grades, will they have impact on the bond market . Keep in mind it doesnt have much in mind when it lowered its rating in august. Thank you very much. Largely lost in all of the drama over the cliff, aid to victims to Hurricane Sandy on east koefd. It has republicans now turning on republicans. Hi, tyler. Kind after surprising and unexpected fight here. Let me show how as they were getting zun with the fiscal cliff debate. Here is how it went down. The question is on the motion to adjourn. Those in favor, say aye. Aye. Those opposed, no. No. And the opinion of the chair . Ayes have it accordingly the house stands adjourned until 10 00 a. M. Tomorrow for morning hour debate. So you could hear those republicans and democratic members from new york and new jersey upset they gavelled down the session last night before they voted on this bill and today, some of those members have been venting their anger at a system that they say is unfair to their constituents. Take a listen. These people have no problem finding new york when it comes to raising money. It is only when it comes to allocating money they cant find the ability to do it. We cannot believe that this cruel knife in the back was delivered to our region. This is is time to stop debating and take the gloves off, jersey style. Democrats and republicanes from hard hit areas this afternoon, we know that new Jersey Governor Chris Christie will hold a press conference in about an hours time to talk about how he feels about all of this. And the president of the United States is also weighed in from his trip to hawaii, urging now the house of representatives to vote on the sandy aid bill today before the new Congress Goes out of session. Meanwhile, Speaker Boehner says it is one of his first priorities when the new Congress Comes in later in the week, tyler. Actually up to you, becky. Thank you. I guess we will get an earful from Chris Christie when he sounds off on this. We now have a deal in washington. This is a deal for now anyway. Maxine waters california democrat. She voted nor bill. Jack kingston is georgia republican. He voted no. Our next deadline is match. Spending cuts are key. How do we get there from here . How do we do it without wring bringing the final system to the brink of collapse again . Well have their answers right after the break. Mine was earned off vietnam in 1968. Over the South Pacific in 1943. I got mine in iraq, 2003. Usaa Auto Insurance is often handed down from generation to generation. Because it offers a superior level of protection, and because usaas commitment to serve the military, veterans and their families is without equal. Begin your legacy, get an Auto Insurance quote. Usaa. We know what it means to serve. With the fiscal cliff prices set at the last final moment, what are chances they can set prices in a timely manner. Representative Maxine Waters is a democrat from california. She will be Ranking Member of the Financial Services committee. Welcome to both of you representatives. Thank you for joining us. Congresswoman Maxine Waters, can we start with you and just ask you, at this point, we have been trying to figure out who won this battle and who lost . Did anyone win . Absolutely. Our middle class american taxpayers won. With this agreement that the president signed, middle inkuks taxpayers in america wont have a tax increase. As matter of fact, they will have a permanent tax break and billion airs and millionaires of the country will have to pay their fair share. We did increase their tax rate. So if anybody won it was middle class people who work everyday, raising their families, sending their kids to school, and just trying to have a descent quality of life. They absolutely won last evening. Congressman kingston, you hear a plea like that, and it makes people wonder, why did you vote no . What was your vote process and what do you want to see happen next . Remember this is twostep allegedly balanced approach that would have revenue increases and deficit reduction and yet cbo said for every 10 in revenue increase there is 1 in revenue or deficit reduction. So what we really did is punt for two months, sequestering. We will have another huge melt down, another round of washington hysteria surrounding the fiscal cliff. And to me, i dont think this is a good way to run the government, to run the country, run the economy, when we are fragile enough. We should have done everything at once. We should have had the senate act on our budget in the spring. Back in august when the house passed it and we should approach this, and i would say a same methodical thoughtful manner and not wait for two months to reenact this whole play all over again. Congressman waters, tyler mathisen, welcome back. We were talking about what specific changes to medicare, if any, you could embrace by way of restraining the growth of spending there. And im not sure, in the heat of the discussion over taxes and so forth, that we got the answer. And i want to repose the question. Do you acknowledge that we have to restrain the growth of spending in some of our retitlement entitlement programs and if you do acknowledge that, how would you do it . Let me say what i think we really do have to acknowledge. There are the very priched and very privileged in this country who do not pay their fair share of taxes and they take advantage of every loophole, every deduction and when we talk about, can we have the revenue to take care of the least of these, we have to look at what we can do. For example, what about carrying interest . What about transitional taxes . What about Oil Subsidies . What about looking in those areas . The defense budget. Let us look where we can credibly get the kind of revenue to do what americans expect us to do for a descent quality of life before we talk about going to the least of these to bear this burden. Lets talk about those who are getting away with corporate welfare. Do i take your answer then to mean that you do not acknowledge that growth of titlement spending has anything to do with the debt situation we find ourselves in . And a second followup if i might, congressman, would you just implicitly from what you just said, would you favor for example, raising the contribution that high income seniors pay for their Medicare Coverage . High income folks like me, and im going to be 65 in seven years, shouldnt i pay more for the same benefits that someone who is less able to pay gets . What i am saying to you is before we look at medicare, before we look at Social Security, before we look at medicaid, of course we should always do whatever we can do to get rid of fraud and abuse and all of that. But before we talk about eliminating any of the coverage and before we talk about separating those who can afford to pay a little more from those who campaign much, lets look in areas where we have the very rich and very privileged getting away with not bearing the burden of their responsibilities in this country. Thats what im saying. Congressman kingston, you two are standing next to each other, but it sounds like you are still would w0r8ds worlds apart. Will we take this to the brink again when we get to the sequestering meeting . I hope we dont. I know that one of the things that max even and i agree on is this is a process where it goes through her committee, through my committee, and each one of us has ideas to put on the table to avoid this. I think one of the complaints in both parties is this boiled down to a high level discussion between Speaker Boehner and the president. And we feel that you got 435 members of the house, a hundred members of the senate. If each of us work through regular order in sub committee, come up with ideas, i think we can fashion a better agreement and much Better Process and i think on the very sensitive things such as medicare, you could do that through the proper sub committees and there are about five of jurisdiction and each one of us could come up with ideas like tort reform or end of life, living will type of arrangement. Maybe some sort of deductible if you dont have one. There could be some things that i think would drive the discussion that could be very productive that would avoid this fiasco and high level drama weve had in the last couple of weeks. I absolutely agree with jack. I want the regular order of business. I dont support these super committees. I dont support two or three people in the back room making a deal. I dont support two or three people slipping things in that we dont know about. That requires time to go through the formal processes. Are you both committing to right now saying that yes you will begin this process now . Weve got two months. Well we kick the can down the road for two months. But you will start right now, right . Oh, absolutely. I do think that we should have the regular order of business and do the business with, you know, transparency so that people of this country can see and understand what we are saying whob is saying what. I agree with jack on that. All right, folks. Im sorry to have to interrupt you. We have to move along. Im sure we will have you back. We appreciate your spirited point of view and thank you and happy new year to both of you. So now one sector you thought might be not on the rise today. Defense stunk but thats not the case. Jane wells, whats the story . Tyler, turns out theres a difference between spending and funding. And nothing in defense may be more heavily fortfide than the big defense program. We will talk about it after the break. Matters . 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