Weve got someone from the administration to explain what in the world is going on. And another union may soon invade the south. The last one burned atlanta. The union army. Will this one burn all those manufacturing plants and jobs to the ground . Were talking unionizing. Sue is at the nyse. Hi. Its a down side day. Right now where we were momentarily again, the Dow Jones Industrial average off about 100 points on the trading session, s p down 9, nasdaq down 29. Thats the biggest percentage move to the downside. The russell 2,000, the broadest index is down almost a full percenten. As for Interest Rates, the yield on the 10 year is 3. 623 . The oil and gold market going in opposite directions. Comex up 14 bucks but ice brent is down about a tenth of a percent. Down 8 in month. Were seeing gasoline under 3 bucks at some stations around the country. And the volatility index known as the vix up 10 in a week. It is up almost 11 . At 1855. Ty, up to you. All right. Thank you very much, sue. Little time for monty hall. Top of the hour, three doors, lets talk about the three doors that are behind us here. Sue, companieny and bob are at the nyse and standing with me a serious looking steve liesman. Its time to open door number one. Look over here, steve, to door number one. The word, the secret word is more. As we open the door, it is ben bernanke. Can the fed pump in more money . Will they, steve . What do you think . I say im standing in front of a strange animal, known as the taper. Heres the story, these doors are connected in the following way. The bearded bernanke. The fed can do more qe if the economy were to really tank as a result of whats happening there. But it coulds are do more in another way, tyler. I cannot taper and that is increasingly what were hearing from the expectation of economists on wall street. What they think is, its really a matter of the not meeting the feds conditions for tapering. They gave us three tests. One test was whether or not they had confidence in the Economic Outlook. How can you have confidence in the Economic Outlook . Two is lower rates. Were a little closer there. But were also further on fiscal restraint. Two out of three are going the other way. That means the fed at least stays on hold. I dont think were going to be adding to quantitative easing here. Take a look at the meeting schedule coming up here. Right. So october everybody says off the table, december, most the earliest possible time they can do that, but you may not have the data, and march may be the time when the fed begins tapering. Down to you, sue. Lets take a look at whats behind door number two as we talk about this. The other side of this is, the taper. And hold that thought, because were going to john harwood in washington. Time to think about the taper while john tells us the breaking news. Sue, i breev were rolling now tape of president obama speaking at fema, the federal Emergency Management agency, where hes discussing preparations for some bad weather in the south. As he was going to make that appearance, which is part of his effort to pressure republicans to reopen the government, the Republican Leadership put out a statement saying that the president is threatening to veto a bill that would that they are preparing to pass or have passed to restore funding for fema. This is part of a republican attempt to convince the American Public that the president is responsible for the Government Shutdown. That is not the case. Republicans are. But theyre giving it a shot and trying to see if they can withstand the pressure over the next few days as we get Market Reaction and political reaction. John harwood, thank you very much. All right. Bob and kenny are here. Talk to me about, you know, we kind of set it up. They could do more. Right. If this whole situation in washington drags on. Do you think its likely. I dont think its likely. Its only likely if, in fact, we go over that edge and youll see the fed pump it up. If we stay status quo to the brink and pull back, i think the fed does what theyre doing, dont taper, they continue the policy, it continue with their foot on the gas. Not only not going to taper, not have the data but the existing data hasnt been that great. Ism services was a little disappointing last week and i thought steve did a great job estimating what the jobs number might be on friday and the numbers he came up with wasnt particularly inspiring. Lets open door number two in case you didnt know is a taper. Its a little mammal, a little woolly mammal beautiful cute little so cute. How i end up in front of that thing. We said no taper in 2014. And that question mark. That doesnt feel right to you, does it . No, i dont think thats right. Some time in 2014 2013 maybe not. The question is the extent to which do they have to exend quan taty easing. They were going to end in the summer. I dont think thats going to be possible if they start december or january because i dont think the fed wants the cliff effect where it ends up all of a sudden or quickly being out of the market. Turn to door number three, the capital, in case you didnt notice that. Thats the october represents the october 17th debt ceiling. Whats more important to the markets, folks, the deadline and the uncertainty it brings or the fact that the fed is not going to stop spending. I think ti know the answer down here. The debt ceiling. The deadline is a real weight to the markets. I dont think the taper comes close. The markets holding right in here at 1670 on the future right and weve tested it two or three times in the last couple days. When we break that is when youre going to start to see the nervousness. The market is saying were going to give you a little more time. Whats making me a little bit nervous you have a number of highprofile investors coming out and saying well, could go over and technically it wouldnt be a default if it was only a day or two. Im not sure the market feels ha way. I dont think so either. I dont think thats priced in at all. I dont think its priced in. Guys. The value guys are happy to see it drop more. Yeah, steve. I mean bernanke said point blank that he could not offset the effects of the sequester and exactly. He would say even more so, offset the effects of a debt ceiling breach here. What were talking about is one of every three dollars of federal spending goes away. Its almost a guaranteed recession. Maybe even depression if that happens. Yeah. Steve, are you i know we have to wrap but are you disturbed by some of these highprofile investors who seem to be kind of softening up what would the impact would be if we actually went over the cliff . Sue, i get disappointed when our investors start taking on political ideas. The democrats want it to seem as bad as possible the republicans want it to seem its palatable and investors should be thinking less politically. Its going to be bad if theres breach, but theres every possibility until then to get rid of it. Thanks very much. Thanks, guys. Appreciate it. All right. While that debt deadline Takes Center Stage and, of course, in that threering circus we refer to as washington these days anyway, the shutdown cant be forgotten. Is it hurting stocks . For most of the Year Companies that generate more than 50 of sales here in the u. S. Have an outperforming and on average this index is up 6. 3 over the last three months multinationals, the companies with high foreign exposure are up 8. 5 . That data according to thompson rioters. Thanks to the recovery in europe, weak acceleration in Global Growth b of a says the street has become less negative on foreign exposed stocks. Another big reason the u. S. Dollar continues to weaken due to the uncertainty in washington. That, of course, is a boon for these Multinational Companies that generate a significant amount of revenue outside of the u. S. As it makes their goods and services more competitive with local products and because of this, john at oppenheimer is recommending clients to diversify their portfolio. Some of the big winners in the group include goodyear tire, cliffs natural, alex continue ion pharmaceuticals and tech giant apple, auto desk and applied materials. The terms of specific regions, europe continues to be a bright spot. Companies with european exposure like priceline, Harmon International and Electronic Arts are up double digits over the past three months and whats more is thompson or excuse me thomas lee at jpmorgan says the pickup . European sales will be a trend to watch in the upcoming earnings season. Tyler . All right. Actually sue is going to take it away, i believe. Sue . All right. Last week we first told you about how the shutdown was holding up mortgage applications. Diana olick had the story for us and now back with an update because weve gone a little further into this Government Shutdown now. We sure have, sue. The Biggest Issue is lenders cant get the irs to verify Tax Information on mortgage applications. Last week, the big lenders said they would do it without it. Theyre using words like temporary and short term, a wells fargo spokesman told me we will continue to evaluate the circumstances. He said they are closing jumbo loans as well, but sources tell me some other lenders are not moving ahead on jumbo loans. Also, the usda, the governments no down Payment Program for rural borers is totally shutdown. Its less than 5 of the market but a lot of these are firsttime buyers with no other options. And lo down payment loans ensured by the governments fha, theyre still going through because its an Automated System and most lenders have authorities to close the loans on their own. For those who dont about 2 of the fha staff of 3,000 are currently on the job. Sue . Diana, thanks. Time to analyze. We dot every monday. Welcome back to the show, abigail. Always good to see you. You too. Well kick it off with apple because we have an upgrade on the stock. To a buy from a hold saying, quote, the stock will appreciate ahead of the iphone 6 launch. Year to date shares down about 7 . Do you agree with this call . I love this call. I think its a great call and i think their price target of 600 is appropriate. My reason for being positive on apple theres a positive inflectionion point potentially ahead. A return to Earnings Growth in fiscal year 14 after a decline this year. Thats a great thing. Ahead of potential improvement in Gross Margins. If you improve Gross Margins that bumped eps could be more. Pretty smooth sailing ahead for apple. Might have a little chop in the near term but over the next year 600 or higher. Facebook is next on the list. Raymond james is lowering its rating to outperform from a strong buy. However, they have upped their price target to 56 from 38. Thats quite an increase. The firm saying, quote, instagram represents an attractive demographic for advertisers. Shares have nearly doubled so far since its ipo. This is one of those annoying calls in a way. Theyre upping their price target but yet downgrading a stock. Hard to understand. Housekeeping in a way. I agree with it. The stock is more than, you know, its ipo price obviously, kind of toward the top of what i would call a range at this point. Were going to have money flows soon from twitter and if you look at the other social media stocks they traded in ranges the first couple years. At the top or above that range, i think were going to pull back in. Probably want to take profits here. Moving on to our last stock, Goldman Sachs moving downgrading Toll Brothers to neutral from buy. Saying given the companys outperformance, its relative positioning in our group has moved lower. Over the oneyear period shares have fallen some 10 . Key to Interest Rates a little bit. Agreed. You know, in my view this is another housekeeping call. Comparing it to a competitor saying theres not as much upside here. However i have a problem with toll and i think they could be downgrading it to a sell at some point, and from a purely technical standpoint its breaking down. Recently put in a below its 50 day and 200 day and trading in a complex head and shoulders. Below 30 that pattern likely to break towards 20. The uncertainties, Interest Rates, all of it. For those of you who dont follow technical analysis, head and shoulders, one shoulder, head, other goes down, the death cross, thats prey sbshs it speaks for itself. Thanks, abby. Nice to have you here. Ty, up. Sue, let me introduce you to michael. Turn around for the camera. He works on websites for a living. We asked him to come in and tell us, really show us and the white house whats wrong with the obama care site. Thats whats wrong, right . Thats one of the issues. This is the code that is creating the big error that is keeping people from logging on. Well tell you what he found and more when we return after this. Its right there. It is day six of obama care and the website glitches still per rist. Questions raised if these problems will impact enrollment. It has. Some cant sign up. Bertha has been keeping a close eye on all this. Tyler, the big question here is, how long is it going to take and how big a fix to get the federal exchange in particular working smoothly. Josh and emily, a new Jersey Company losing their Company Sponsored insurance in january tried to create an account and look at plan offerings. New jersey one of 34 states operated off the exchange, they had the same problem as last week. Couldnt get through. Officials admit the problem go beyond the server capacity to handle the large volume of users. Theyre looking at software after taking part of the system down over the weekend. Tech infrastructure experts say for a real fix the whole system may have to come down. It could easily take days, it could take weeks, an, in fact, probably see different parts of the system get better at different points in time. A lot of folks are pointing to not just the server capacity but sloppy code. Shares of cgi group, one of the lead contractors that built the federal exchange and several others in several states, have actually risen over the last week up about 2 . Weve asked the firm for a request for comment thp. They have not decided to comment at this point, referring things to the feds. Despite the glitches some people are getting enrolled. Joe monedy of sigma told me since wednesday the company has seen some enrollment coming through, its just a trickle, but from places like texas and florida, where they are operating and those are on the federal exchange. Hes not worried for now. He says yes, its just a droplet coming through, but he says, if they can get these fixed it will work, he thinks. This is a monumental embarrassment to the whole program. I mean i suppose you could say on the one hand it is good that so many people are interested in signing up. On the other hand this is a colossal embarrassment that couldnt come frankly at a worse time. It is an embarrassment. They certainly had set the bar low. They kept saying there will be glitches. This was a hurry up job, a sprint to get ready for october 1st at best and certainly things had to, you know the stars had to come together just right for it to work. A lot had to go right and a lot hasnt so far. Were going to go now and ask a person who has found what really went wrong with the Health Care Exchange software. Michael is a senior developer with blue fountain media. Welcome. Good to have you here. You say this is the code where it goes wrong. When i tried to log in last week, where it was stopping me is where i had to fill in security questions like your favorite pets name, your the school that you went to, elementary school. Is that what this code talks about . Right. So basically one of the issues that you encounter when trying to bring up a security question is that its its built off of java framework, which basically tries to grab the data in an efficient manner and the in this case it does not. What should be realistically a few lines stacked of an error message is about 80 lines long. Essentially what it means is that when if i were to call in cnbc and i were to look for you in a directory, and i were to search your name youll never find me. Ill never find you. Drill down by kept or with certain access based on restriction i could find you in a much more efficient manner. This is one of the problems they have. How much was driven by sheer volume, the number of people trying to log in . Im going to bring up a couple examples for you. Whenever youre building a site thats going to hand al large load like that, you want to put in a low balanced state. The site is in that situation but usually what you do when you launch a site, if you are remember a few years back, a lot of attacks on big sites out there, you do the exact same thing. You are pounding the server with a lot of requests to try to see if you can take it down. That apparently was not run properly or at least not run to the level that it should have been. So you would have been able to plan these servers to a greater degree to handle a greater number. So two quick questions here. You heard bertha and one of the sources there saying fixing this could take days, it could take weeks. Whats your estimation and will they have to take the whole bloody thing down, state by state, to get in and make it work . Yeah. So the problem is really deep rooted when you get to a program level, like what we were just looking at. Something like that could take at least a week for a team of developers to really go back down to the framework of your house and trying to rebuild it from there. Some of the other issues that they can do to reduce the processing requests of the server, are on the front end of the site, using client site validation where they can reject unnecessary requested servers. Michael, thank you. How did you get in there to get that . Do we not want to know that . Thats for me to know and you to find out. Thats a secret. Its a developers network. A lot of Developers OpenSource Developers especially share a lot of data, lot of inform