Transcripts For CNBC Power Lunch 20131105 : vimarsana.com

CNBC Power Lunch November 5, 2013

And now may be out of a job because of bullying allegations. How do you manage a situation when it gets out of hand at work . First, though, lets go to sue at the new york Stock Exchange. Big turnaround today, sue. Absolutely. A huge turnaround. The day didnt start off well for the bulls. We were down triple digits. We have as you can see from the chart had quite a turnaround, now down 6 points on the trading session after a loss of 117 earlier on. One reason could be the oil market. Take a look at brent crude, down 2. 5 . Just in the past week. Gasoline prices are down. The thought is that is going to help the consumer. Lets check the tenyear, what a lot of people are watching, were at 2. 6 . Ash cashin saying if we start to see that creep closer to 2. 7 we might see fresh selling come into the market. Stocks remain near record highs a new king in the mutual fund industry. Pimcos bond fund no longer number one. Dominic chu is back at hq with that. Hi. Hey, sue. Its been years in the making but bank art has unseated pimco at the top of the mutual fund heap. Not just about vanguard versus pimco but stocks versus bonds. The Vanguard Index fund had more assets than the previous title holder, of course, pimcos total return bond fund. Now vanguards fund invests in stocks across all market caps and styles from value to growth. Its got over 3600 individual stocks in the portfolio. Now the most heavily weighted sectors in the fund are technology, financials and industrials. That mirrors the way the s p 500 is set up, although the fund favors industrials slightly more than the overall stock market. And as for the Biggest Holdings, perhaps no surprise here. The Biggest Holdings so far in the fund according to vanguard is apple, of course. Thats followed by exxon mobil, then microsoft, johnson johnson, and then general electric. Now the Top Ten Holdings of the fund make up 14 of the overall weighting. The stock market is near record highs and there appears to be more Risk Appetite returning to the markets, but that begs the question, sue, is that a possible contrarian indicator or perhaps a sign at least for a near term top for stocks. We will talk about that right now. Bob and kenny are here with me and kenny, you know, is this the rotation that weve been waiting to see out of bonds into stocks . It certainly feels like it. Look, the Vanguard Fund is up some 37 year to date and the pimco not so much. A negative number in front of it. Considering when the Broader Market is up 24 , its been a spectacular year its almost hard to understand, right. So therefore, youve got these investors weve been talking about, recovering economy, talking about 2014, talking about getting back into equities and its a perfect sign. Whats amazing to me, why the rotation hasnt started earlier. I think its been very sticky. I think the opposite is going on. Why dont we see the great rotation. Were seeing modest outflows from bond funds but its been modest. There is no avalanche. A lot of that money goes into which a lot worry sits . Money funds before stocks. Weve had inflows in stocks. Given the outflows we had in the prior four years i dont think its an avalanche. I would like a bigger rotation. Who believes that treasures have a lot of room to move . Look what happened in may and june. Right. We dropped 4 and a lot of bond funds yielding 1 a year. Who doesnt notice that . I think theres a sense of nervousness. The market has had this great move this year and people are saying, were up 24 . Whats going to happen . Come in, go out. Theyre cautious, right . Thats why they go from bonds to money market until they get the guts to say here i come. There are also a lot of people out there that i talked to just, you know, when i come down here to the Stock Exchange when we talk outside, they really feel as though the market is being supported primarily by the fed. Right. And if were at the latter end of that support. Right. Whats the point in getting in now . If youve missed that much of the move wait until the fed starts to taper. Thats the argument. But the fed will tell you theyre not going to pull away until theyre sure the economy can handle it on its own so no one should worry. Thats not what were seeing. Its not what were seeing. We are not seeing anybody who hangs out in bond funds right now, there is so little upside and so much downside, that people really need to look at it carefully and particularly older people who are 70 in bonds, 30 stock and 60, youre going to live another 25 years, that is not a good investment ideology for the next 25 years. 70 bonds, and 30 stocks. What he said. Thank you very much. Ty, up to you. All right. Folks, senior economic reporter st. Louis with bostons it fed president this morning and he says that rosengren still wants to see a jump in the job market but that he is optimistic about 2014. I expectation is the beginning next year well see better Economic Data, well start seeing growth closer to 3 . Part of that is on the consumer side, the stock markets high, housing prices have continued to go up, employing more people so that should result in a better situation for consumption and also some of the head winds from fiscal policy, some of the head winds from europe and some of the lingering effects of the financial crisis should start abating. All right. Cnbc. Coms jeff cox also talking about fed matters, jobs and a possible target change. Jed you were saying relax. I havent done this very often, you know, sometimes i get a little carried away. I got you. So the fed has said they wont start ratcheting up Interest Rates until unemployment drops to 6. 5 . Right. But youre reporting is indicating what . Well, if this was a football field wed call it moving the goal post. What im seeing, there are two papers that were filed this week that are going to be presented at imf conference that suggest the fed will not move now until the rate drops to 6 , maybe even 5. 5 , which suggests now that we wont see rate increases out maybe until 2017. So you ask yourself, the markets been so dependent on the low Interest Rates so would this be normally bullish . You would think under normal circumstances to hear the fed is going to stay put the market would like that. However, i think the fed starts to run into maybe a little credibility issue here, and you wonder, is qe ever going to end . I mean is this really qe . A lot are skeptical whether were going to live with quantitative easing and that monetary stimulus for decades. Whose papers are these . Fed economists . These are fed economists, basically what they did is applied some models to see what works best and they found really that theres not a lot of advantage at this point, seeing where inflation is so low. Very low inflation. Really no advantage here to being too aggressive as far as ragz Interest Rates go. You risk all kind of things but what these papers say from a half dozen fed economists collaborating here to come up and say that we should that theres really no advantage to the 6. 5 target. John from Goldman Sachs analyzed these papers and believes that this will be adopted as official fed policy, probably not until the spring but its coming. It will be very interesting next week, we get the first of the yellen hearings or maybe i guess it really is the yellen hearing. Interesting to hear what she says, how she is questioned on this very point because she, in her statement when she was nominated, as i heard it, i heard that her principle focus was on unemployment and keeping employment up. Yeah. And heress the thing about the Unemployment Rate. Its become such an fairly unreliable indicator, at least as far as the headline rate goes, because were at a 35year low as far as Labor Force Participation rate goes. As that rate is falling its not really providing a good indicator without getting too jargony, they talk about structural versus cyclical unemployment and the level of structural unemployment, the kind of jobs that just dont come and go with ebb and flow of the economy might be higher than we think it is and the unemployment the depth of the unemployment problem is not reflect in the drop in the unemployment. Thank you for your reporting. Sue, back down to you. Well talk a little bit about that and what jeff mentioned a second ago, the structural issues with employment something i want to talk to you about. There are economists who feel that technology has changed the way that jobs are done in such a dramatic way some of those jobs are never coming back. Therefore, the Unemployment Rate is basically a false indicator and that were not going to be able to create the kinds of jobs that would bring that Unemployment Rate down. Listen, the Financial Services industry is a prime example of what technology has done to jobs, job losses, job creation or lack of job creation, so i think thats a solid argument. I was with one of the ceos of one of the s p 500 Big Companies just a few days ago and said, how is your productivity growth this year. He said about 2 . I said thats good. Are you going to hire anymore . No. I said why arent you hiring any more . 2 productivity and dont have to hire. Thats good. Theyre getting productivity growth and because of technology theyre using, not a tech company, its an old manufacturing company, they can get it now and thats a major problem. The economy is not what it used to be. And thats right. So therefore were stuck in this quandary because they want it they have the target for unemployment or employment however you look at it, right, and not the able to hit it because technology has so changed the pace of what the world looks like. Its going to be very interesting to see what happens when miss yellen takes over. Thanks, guys, very much. Dom, back to you for a market flash. Sue, how about two drugmakers heading in opposite directions. Look at immuno again losing ground after the biotech stopped a trial of an experimental lung cancer drug because it wasnt working and they said there was a possibility that patients treated with the drug were more likely to suffer a possible infection. On the flip side karix moving higher after the Pharmaceutical Company said its kidney drug met some of the main goals of a mid stage study in patients with Chronic Kidney Disease who were not on dialysis. Its a mouthful but a positive sign for keryx so that stock heading up in todays market. Thank you very much. Big news on Home Ownership in the usa and specifically on whos buying and whos pulling back a little bit. Diana olick from d. C. Rising home prices, tight credit and waning Consumer Confidence are not helping household formation or Home Ownership. Home ownership didnt budge in the Third Quarter of this year. Its down slightly from a year ago. Now its 65. 1 . Seasonally adjusted. Its down from a lie of 69 during the housing boom. And if you take out the millions of homes that have either delinquent mortgages or are in the foreclosure process your Home Ownership rate is closer to 61 . But, more dramatic than Home Ownership is overall household formation. That is, either people moving into rentals or buying homes that is creating a new household. In q3 it was 380,000 more than a year ago. But compare that to 2006 when 1. 2 million new households were formed and 2002 when 1. 8 million were formed, the average is around 1. 1 million annually. Younger americans are just not moving out of their parents homes, not moving out from their roomma roommates. Tight credit is the answer, especially for single and firsttime buyers. Single buyers fell from 32 of the market in 2010 to just 25 today according to a new report from the realtors. First time buyers made up 28 of purchases in september. That share historically should be around 40 . Meanwhile, home prices are rising still, up 12 in september from a year ago according to core logic. Thats slightly less than the 12. 4 annual gain in august. Some are saying that price gains are easing. Were seeing pending home sales easing but i spoke to the ceo of red fin who thought that for 2013, the sales were pretty much over but then sea his he saw a huge jump in buyer traffic in the last week as Mortgage Rates headed ever so slightly lower. So sue, this recovery is getting curiouser and curiouser. It sure is, diana. Thank you very much. Weve been talking fed and this video popped into the newsroom. Senator john tester meeting with janet yellen on the hill. Were going to be watching all of these meetings as we run up to the vote on miss yellens candidacy as fed chief which will take place next week. A number of the key senators will be vetting her in terms of what her interests are in terms of Interest Rates and the like and we are going to keep track of it for you. Theres hash tag trouble before twitter goes public and you consider putting money in it, see kayla tausches report. Kayla . Youve heard it for weeks on cnbc, theres a lot of potential upside for twitters ipo. Theres reasons to be concerned. High risk, high reward. That story straight ahead. And the video of the day, maybe the month, maybe the year, two sky diving planes colliding. Everyone on board has to think fast, really fast. Well show you more of this amazing video and hear from the people who lived to tell about it, thats coming up. Wow. [ bagpipes and drums playing over ] [ music transitions to rock ] make it happen with the allnew fidelity active trader pro. Its one more innovative reason serious investors are choosing fidelity. Get 200 free trades when you open an account. Welcome back to power lunch. Monster beverage is at session highs. Wall street is optimistic about its earnings slatsds to come out on thursday. Analysts are expecting a gain of 57 cents a share compared to 47 cents a year ago. Sales expected to come in at 602 million. These Energy Drinks have been in the spotlight a lot. Well see if these data points help out their cause. Back to you. Thank you very much. Orbitz taking a hit in todays trading session. The Online Travel agency posting weaker than expected Third Quarter earnings due to rising costs and paired a prior revenue outlook for the year thats what really hit the stock, but nonetheless the stock is up 180 for the year. Ty . Id take that if i owned it. Thats pretty good, 180 . Two days until twitter goes public. People are all atwitter. It is in its ipo filing the social media giant laying out more than 30 pages of risks the business faces. Kayla tausche has gone through it page by page. Tyler, we should be enunci e enunciating our ts that well. I havent gotten there. Twitter oversubscribed, raising the ipo price and analysts say it will double but skeptics pointed to the 32 pages of risk. Some common risks back to dotcom days like growth. Twitter needs to make more money off International Users but thats expensive because that comes this warning we may never be profitable. Then the competitive risks, competition for ad dollars and users. Namely against insti gram. The legal risks, lawsuits over privacy, consumer data and patents and gets sued when users tweet out copyrighted content. Bad Internet Service could kick off users if not ranked high enough on apples App Store People wont download it and might interpret its metrics as eyeballs. Companies have been creative and conservative and some of their risks in the ipo filings have become folklore. 1999 Martha Stewart living said damage to marthas reputation would hurt the stock. Five years later convicted to lying to investigators about a stock sale. Shares down 92 since the ipo. Goldman sachs in 2010 update its filings to say bad press could hurt morale and performance at the bank after the financial crisis. Pandora said if users choose not to be tracked on the internet the web radio advertising would suffer. Bear stearns assets pulled its ipo among the risks it didnt negotiate the loans it bought from the new defunct bear. This one is my favorite. The World Wrestling federation in 1997 said one of its risks may not have enough insurance for the injuries. Wow. And some of the graver outcomes of some of the matches. Companies like to err on the safe side, but something you have to remember when thinking about jumping in. You had me at we may not ever be profitable. That was the one. And theyre not. Big revenue but have had a hard time making a profit. Underwriters pointing 2015. They price tomorrow night. First day of trading thursday. Im hearing from my sources it could be above the raised price range. A lot of high demand from wall street. Retail will likely have to get in after it opens for trading. Thanks very much. Sue, down to you. Were going to have a birds eyeview because twitter will trade right behind us here on post nine. Election day in parts of the country. Political parties facing their biggest tests since the Government Shutdown. An awful lot at stake. Check out this video, these are two planes full of skydivers they crashed into each other. 12,000 feet in the air. Unbelievably and fortunately everyone on board lived. We will hear from some very lucky survivors straight ahead on power lunch. Honestly, im a little old fashioned. I love chalk and erasers. But change is coming. All my students have the brand new surface. It has the new windows and comes with office, has a real keyboard, so they can do real work. They can use Bing Smartsearch to find anything in the world. Or last nights assignment. And the battery lasts and lasts, so after school they can skype, play games, and my favorite. Do homework. Change is looking pretty good after all. Welcome back to power lunch. For genron moving higher as adju

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