Transcripts For CNBC Power Lunch 20140203 : vimarsana.com

CNBC Power Lunch February 3, 2014

Territory, off its high down 9. 6 so far this year, one month ago. The russian market is in the correction zone, too. Brazil, turkey and the topics not far behind. If the u. S. Market continues to fall, what kind of impact will we see potentially on housing in this country . We are starting to get some answers today. And snow, well, it is a big problem today in much of the country. I think Roger Goodell has a direct line to mother nature, because the snow started here within six hours of the end of that game. Another storm is going to hit Major Population Centers on wednesday and then forecasters believe a third storm all in one week is also on the way. The airlines are really starting to feel some pain. Snow has really grounded the industry in many ways. Will the airlines raise ticket prices to pass along the pain to passengers like you and me . We start, though, with the markets and sue is here snuggly. I am. It is a mess outside in the snow and it sure is a mess inside, if youre long this market. Were watching the tenyear note. See that 2. 61 . The market is challenging the 260 mark. If we break below the 260 mark, that is extremely negative for the Dow Jones Industrial average and that is what everybody is watching right now. Seema mody, the index is down on a percentage basis quite significantly today. The dow is not faring well either. We will start out with bob biseasb pisani. How does it feel down there . Feels like they are trying to make a bottom but its tentative. Take a look at the s p 500. We started out and almost immediately moved south. When 10 00 happened, we had the ism services number, market took another leg down. We were expecting about 56, disappointing at 51. The market is not in a forgiving mood. Dont want to hear about whether the weather is bad or whatever the problem is, immediately sold as the s p 500 came out. Tell you something very unusual. Put up how the major sectors are doing. Look at the small cap, midcap and s p 500. The midcap is down almost twice as much as the s p 500 and small cap, too, that is a rather unusual spread there. A lot of people are suspecting that a lot of big etf traders have been selling the etfs around these. The volume has been very heavy. Let me give you an example. Airline stocks, delta, Everybody Loves the airlines. Business is exploding. Yet look, theyre down, delta is down 3 today. It was up over 100 last year but this industry is doing really well right now. This is not selloff on fundamentals. This is selloff because we got to sell something right now. Same thing with mexico. We all know emerging markets are in trouble. Everybody loves mexico, close to the u. S. , growing consumer culture, positive balance of payments. Everybody was buying this teat e end of last year and selling eem. Its down today. Mexico is down 10 , the etf for this is down 10 this year along with all the other ones. In other words, they are not discriminating between the good countries and bad countries. They are basically selling just about everything in the emerging markets. They certainly are. Technically, we have seen some deterioration on a technical basis in the Dow Jones Industrial average and also in the nasdaq which on a percentage basis is faring the worst today of the major indices. Lets check in with seema over at the nasdaq. We are now at session lows, the nasdaq down almost 2 on the day. Rebalancing, investors taking in profits from 2013. Thats what im hearing as a catalyst behind todays drop in prices. Plus, in terms of Economic Data, hasnt been that strong over the past month when youre looking at data from here in the u. S. As well as markets like in china. In fact, since that disappointing pmi report from china came out, the nasdaq has slid more than 4 . On the technical side, the nasdaq and nasdaq 100 are trading below their 50 Day Moving Averages but well above their 200 Day Moving Averages so those are the two levels that market technicians are watching. Stocks that are weighing on the composite, biotech and semiconductors lower on the day but leave it up to apple to buck the downward trend of the market. Apple right now topping the nasdaq 100. This of course coming in after losing 8 last week due to disappointing earnings. Sue . Thank you. We will get back to you in just a little bit. To Sheila Dharmarajan for a market flash. Check out shares of whirlpool, continuing freefall from its high mark in january. It fell nearly 7 last week after its q4 Earnings Report came in a little light. Its down a whopping 20 over the past two weeks. The long term investors cant complain too much. That stock is up over 85 the previous two years. Tyler . Thanks very much. The nfl clearly not happy about that blowout in the game last night at the meadowlands but they are thrilled they missed todays weather in new york city. It is nasty out there. Windy, snowy, icy, not good. Both rush hours are going to be a mess here. That snow started probably as i said six hours after the lombardi trophy was hoisted at the meadowlands. The airlines have had 4,000 delays today and 1500 cancellations. If youre trying to get home to seattle or denver, wherever, youre having a hard time today. See who is going to pay the price for all these cancellations. Our man on the airlines, phil lebeau is on the case. You know whos going to pay the price. I do indeed. Ask the people who are in new york or philly today. I want to bring in josh martz, who is in charge of moss flight, an Aviation Consulting company which has been tracking the cancellations and delays we have seen in the industry over the last month. Josh, give us some perspective, exactly how bad the month of january was for the Airline Industry when it comes to cancellations and delays. Well, i think its safe to say it cant get any worse. January was an alltime low point, so to speak, for the Airline Business when it comes to cancellations. Primarily due to factors outside of their control. Its just hard to overstate the impact that the sequential weather events had in january and the cost that put on airline cost structures. Yet when you look at the cancellations, the majority of them are with regional airlines, the regional carriers, the small regional jets that are feeding the hubs. Why are they affected more than your mainline pointtopoint large city flights . The best way to think about it is the following. When you have bad weather, there are a certain number of runway slots and air space sequencing thats available for a given aircraft. The airlines try to prioritize the aircraft that have the most number of people on board. Thats why you see the smaller airplanes that are operated by regional carriers canceled first, so that the 200 or 300 passenger airplanes can take priority in the system. A lot of people flying from small cities have been out of luck for the last month. Im curious, how much are the new pilot rules and those that went into effect on january 1st, the supply of pilots out there, tight supply of pilots, how much is that impacting what we have seen from the airlines causing some of these cancellations . Its having a big impact. You see it particularly during the periods of stress due to weather. To put it simply, the new regulations limited the amount of time pilots could be on duty, whether they were flying or not. What that means is that when you have extensive flight delays, particularly towards the end of a given day, the airlines simply have crews that are no longer eligible to fly. That leads to a lot of cancellations. This will get better over time as airlines hire additional pilots and introduce new technology to manage it, but there is definitely going to be an adjustment period. Big question, josh. Are we going to see higher ticket prices because of all of these delays and the loss the airlines have incurred . I think you will over the coming years because airline staffing will have to go up. These regulations will force airlines to hire additional pilots so they can operate flights. Ultimately, you will see that come down to ticket prices that we pay. Josh, joining us from washington, d. C. Today. Bottom line, it was a terrible month and terrible start to the month of february. Lets hope it gets better from here on out. The latest forecasts dont look like it will get better but well try and focus on the positive. Look at this video from arkansas. Parts of that state got up to six inches starting yesterday. There were dozens of car accidents, as you can see. Today, the east is the target and this is not the only storm that forecasters believe will hit this week. Heres the weather channels keith carson. Take you through the rest of the afternoon here, you notice the snow quickly tapering off in new york and philly and this thing is totally out of here around 4 00 or 5 00 so it will be a relatively quickmoving storm but pretty high impact with some pretty good snowfall totals, considering the short period of time. Were looking at five to eight in the purple here so that includes new york city, down into philadelphia, just to the north of d. C. Then we kind of feather it out to three to five in the darker blue and one to three out towards the pittsburgh area. We have an active pattern, because the jet stream is dipping down and bringing these storms out of the gulf so we will see another one for tuesday and wednesday. All indications are this storm system will be spatially larger and more impactful than what were seeing today across the midatlantic. So by tomorrow night, right back in the snow, new york all the way to boston. Then as we head into wednesday, the storm system becomes more of a new england event but boston, probably the battleground for the rain snow line. New york should change over probably to some rain, down into jersey, d. C. Certainly changing over to rain but snowfall amounts in excess of over six inches. But wait, theres more. This is tuesdaywednesday. The computer models telling us there will be another storm as we head into late weekend, early next week. Well, we will keep our fingers crossed. Sheila . Check out shares of a stock falling after a report from streaming media which is that apple may be building its own content delivery network. The report says that apple has traditionally relied on other providers. Maybe not the case anymore. Check out level three. That stock is also trading lower as well. Sheila, thank you very much. The weather is a mess, we keep saying. The market is a mess, too. Dominic chu and sara eisen are standing by to help us muddle through it as we talk about correction lessons. Well, some big name pros are weighing in on what they think are the bull and bear cases for this market. What they like and what they would do. Ill have that for you next. And there are a lot of similarities between the u. S. Market and the japanese market in the last several weeks. Does that mean we are going the way of japan . Into a correction . Heres a word you should keep in mind unbiased. Some Brokerage Firms are but way too many arent. Why . Because selling their funds makes them more money. Which makes you wonder. Isnt that a conflict . Search proprietary mutual funds. Yikes then go to e trade. Weve got over 8,000 mutual funds and not one of them has our name on it. Were in the business of finding the right investments for you. E trade. Less for us, more for you. The funds prospectus contains its investment objectives, risks, charges, expenses and other Important Information and should be read and considered carefully before investing. For a current prospectus visit www. Etrade. Com mutualfunds. Nasty day for the markets. Japan in correction mode. Are we headed that way, too . Sara eisen reporting on similarities and differences but first lets go to dominic chu on some lessons from prior corrections. Lets talk about the definitions of a stock market correction. They vary but the gist is straightforward. A pullback in prices from what has been an uptrend overall. Some traders use a 10 discount as the mark of such an event. The dow and s p 500 are both about halfway to that point. Its one of the bearish cases for stocks right now. So far today, the dow industrials have fallen below that 200 Day Moving Average or its longer term trend line, if you will. That hasnt happened since december of 2012. Then there are other markets around the world like japan and russia which are already in correction phases themselves. Federated investment strategist linda dissel is looking at negatives like positive weakness in manufacturing and of course, durable goods orders as well. However, these market dips have happened in the past and investors who have bought on that weakness have been rewarded, going all the way back to the depths of the crisis in 2009. Having a Shopping List ready may be prudent and some experts like bank of america see opportunity in pullbacks like this. I do see this as a great buying opportunity for some of the Higher Quality names in the s p 500 that have sold off on emerging markets exposure or sold off just because they have a whiff of exposure to some of these regions that are flashing dangerous signals. The last big correction we had was in 2011 and if youre looking for where the positive action is this time around, yeartodate, take a look at the airline stocks. Gas Utility Companies and Biotech Companies are actually up in a down market. Remember, that last big correction did lead to the record highs that we saw earlier this year. Thank you very much. Before we bring in sara eisen, look at this comparison chart. The spy Ticker Symbol is the etf that tracks the s p 500. Ewj, thats not an airport code, it tracks japanese stocks. You see a fairly close mirror image until the last few days. Is that a sign of the u. S. Market maybe falling farther faster . Sara . The answer to your question is not necessarily. Technically speaking, correction means stocks pull back 10 from the peak and yes, we saw it overnight in japan. The market there technically entering correction territory, down 10 from the last trading day of december when it hit its highest level in more than six years. Traders there citing china and emerging market slowdown, disappointing earnings for the weakness in stocks there. Sound familiar . Take a look at this. The chart, strong correlation between u. S. And japanese markets lately. But i did talk to a number of equity strategists and pros and the short answer is a correction there does not necessarily mean that a correction here comes next. For one, the nikkei, the japanese market, surged 57 in 2013. That was its biggest year since 1972. So clearly it got a lot of people locking in their gains and japan has had a much more tremendous move over the past 18 months. Another key difference, japan is in the middle of a major experiment, a massive quantitative easing to fight deflation and pump up growth. The jury is still out on whether any of that is going to work. The u. S. , on the other hand, is doing much better, so much so that our central bank, the fed, is in tapering mode or actually starting to scale back the quantitative easing. And worth pointing out, the u. S. Economy has been a bright spot in the Global Economy. Fourth quarter gdp last week showed 3. 2 growth. The consumer at least is alive and doing all right. Oppenheimers chief equity strategist says Economic Growth in this country, earnings in this country so far counter a good part of the drag youre seeing coming from emerging markets, sluggishness in europe. It doesnt mean were not in for more pain and perhaps even as much as a 5 to 10 move here as the world adjusts to a tough Global Environment and a world of tapering. Clearly you are seeing the fear play out today. But as Bianco Research says, its not that japan is a leading indicator for u. S. Stocks. Its just correcting a little bit harder. Sue . Thank you very much. The markets about to basically close in on some key technical levels. Thats another big part of todays story. We will talk about that in two minutes. I have the flu, i took medicine but i still have symptoms. [ sneeze ] [ male announcer ] truth is not all flu products treat all your symptoms. What . [ male announcer ] alkaseltzer plus severe cold and flu speeds relief to these eight symptoms. [ breath of relief ] thanks. [ male announcer ] youre welcome. Ready . Go. [ male announcer ] youre welcome. So ally bank really has no hthats right, no hidden fees. S . Its just that im worried about, you know, hidden things. Ok, whys that . Well uhhh. Surprise um. Well, its true. At ally there are no hidden fees. Not one. Thats nice. No hidden fees, no worries. Ally bank. Your money needs an ally. Welcome back to power lunch. Im Sheila Dharmarajan with a market flash. Josa. Banks board has rejected a proposal. They are in touch to buy eddie bauer, owned by golden gate capital. It looks like these two companies are not suited for each other. I would agree on that one. Thank you. A fresh month and more declines for the markets both here and abroad in correction territory as we mentioned is japans nikkei, closing at a fresh two and a half month low today, down about 10 since its sixyear high on december 30th. Plus the Dow Jones Industrials currently less than 4 from entering correction territory and challenging some key technical levels. So what should investors be watching out for right now . Joining us is jim mcdonald, chief investment strategist with Northern Trust and hugh johnson, chief Investment Officer of hugh johnson advisors. Welcome, gentlemen. Nice to have you here. You have made the bullish care repeatedly but it seems as though thats being challenged at this point. It seems as though they are at a bit of an inflection point, if you will. Yeah. This is pretty important. Obviously we had a good year in 2013. I would argue that in 2013 we got to a level about 6 overvalued. I dont think this ones going to be over until were about 6 undervalued and we have widespread pessimism. So its going to take time. I think the real question, the question youre asking, is is this just going to be a correction. Is it going to be a 10 correction. Well, its going to be at least that. Is it going to be something worse. A bear market

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