How it could affect the entire American Auto industry. And the terrible violence in ukraine just keeps getting worse. Just 18 months ago, they hosted an International Soccer tournament and now are on the brink of, if not in, a civil war. Markets are starting to react to this. Russian stocks down big today. Sue is out. Kate kelly is at the new york stock exchange. We will check in with her in just a minute. We start, though, with frozenomics. Take a look at this chart of gas, up another percent today, a percent in the last month. One big reason of course is because new weather models, this big move today, 40 in one month, new weather models came in overnight. Wsi senior meteorologist dan leonard telling us today to expect cold now throughout much of the nation into quote, the first week of march and beyond. Originally, leonards model said the cold would back off by the second week of march, but now that part of the forecast has changed. Jeff grossman trades nat gas for brg brokerage. Where do we stand . Where do you see prices moving . I personally think we may have topped out near term but again, tomorrow we have some very interesting, we have figures coming out about inventories. There is talk of 200 to 255. We have a possibility of this market probably reaching its goals and probably selling off. This market has gone way above what most people even considered normal range here, and we now have a point where no ones willing to sell this market. Usually when that happens, the markets ready for a good selloff. We are up 41 as that graphic shows in just the past month. Take us through, if you dont mind, the sort of supply and demand equation. I get that demand is up but i thought supply was much higher as well. Well, truth be told, what was considered a glut of natural gas has vanished and right now, we have already now certain sort of logistical issues that come as far as delivering the natural gas and giving people reason for concern. Were not at a point where you have to be overly krconcerned. There is ample, the Biggest Issue is really the propane which really has delivery problems and issues but natural gas, it is down to the point where now suddenly its almost like a cash and carry kind of basis. Really from an overabundance we are now living by day to day to see how we stand as far as inventories. Thanks very much for that report. We appreciate it. Hope your dream comes true there and the market may go a little lower. At least those of us paying natural gas bills. I saw sara eisen here yesterday and now shes in florida, tracking how Consumer Companies like Campbell Soup and hersheys are doing and weathering the weather at a big u. S. Consumer products event down in sunny florida. First, though, to dominic chu. He was here yesterday and he is still here today. Hes looking at companies likely to win by the cold weather. There is a flipside to every coin. Lets kick things off with companies that get hit by the bad weather. First, perhaps no surprise, of all the snow, ice and sleet, airlines like united have had a tough go. Take that united, continental story. The vice chairman called that first polar vortex in january among the worst weather events in the companys history. It canceled 6300 flights and other airlines canceled tens of thousands more. A lot of that revenue is now lost, perhaps never to be had back again. What about restaurants . Take the cheesecake factory, for instance. They are a big one. When it rains and snows that much, you cant really get out to your favorite eateries. Thats a lot of lost revenue as well. It said Severe Weather impacted its business and of course, theres walmart. That said the plethora of storms hurt their sales as well. A lot of the losers here, but there are beneficiaries to all that cold weather. Take Oreilly Automotive which sells aftermarket replacement parts. The cold weather generated higher car parts failures which boosted sales at aftermarket parts makers. Also, battery makers like Johnson Controls, also cited bad weather as more of a tailwind for their business than a headwind, a hurting factor. So Johnson Controls make a lot of car batteries and a lot of those batteries are being sold because of the cold weather. Then of course, theres the cold weather apparel makers like columbia sportswear. Those shares up 10 today and strong earnings forecast were better than estimates. The ceo tim boyle said strong momentum is carrying over so now its cold outside, baby, its cold outside, but not everybody is a loser in that kind of market. You think of bent wheels and things like that that will happen out of this. You know, i replaced all four wheels on my car because every pothole i hit the first time in years i have had to do that. I think it will be a full employment act for body shops around the country, not many publicly traded, if any, but they will do some business. All right. Now to sara eisen, he said, in boca raton where the weather is no problem. Consumer companies are at a key conference there and making important decisions based on the weather. Reporter the weather is just one of the problems these Consumer Companies are facing right now. They are saying it makes an impact but overall, its part of a broader narrative and that is Consumer Spending in this country, internationally as well, has been weak. The ceo of clorox, talked to him earlier. They have a great grasp on Consumer Spending, making everything from bleach to charcoal to water filters to kitty litter. He says the consumer is quote, fragile right now. That was his word. And that weather really is only a small impact. Clorox, interestingly enough, stands to benefit from this and saw that in their latest results because it sells more wipes and bleaches because of flu season, because people stay home and try to clean and try to stay healthy. Another one that is seeing a boost from the colder weather, campbells soup. I was just speaking with the ceo, denise morrison. She says shes not changing the strategy given the weather but certainly saw a nice bump for their core product, campbells soup, the broth, people staying home, they are cooking more, using that broth, trying to stay warm. But in general, a lot of companies, especially the Food Companies that sell at the grocery stores, say that consumers havent been coming out, havent been spending as much, and as i said, its just one of their problems. They are also here at the conference complaining about sluggish income growth, sluggish job creation in the United States. In particular, europe turning a corner a bit and heres the other big concern that everybody is talking about here. Emerging markets. A lot of these companies, the colgates of the world, have been overseas expanding heavily. Thats where the growth is. Thats where the consumer of tomorrow is. In the long term, they are still bullish but in the short term, they say pretty big head winds, especially on the wild currency moves. Back to you. Two big stories in the world of real estate today. Mortgage applications down 4. 1 last week. Housing starts fell for the second month in a row last month. Diana olick is live with us in washington. Welcome. Reporter this was not exactly unexpected after yesterdays huge drop in builder confidence. Housing starts down 16 month to month. Thats single family. Even down nearly 7 from a year ago. Everyone blames it on the weather but starts were actually up in the northeast even though thats a very small sample, yes, and down in the west where weather wasnt a factor in january. Sure, weather makes it hard to start a house, but permits were down as well for both single and multifamily month to month, up slightly from a year ago. Weather doesnt matter when youre just going into the permit office. So bill pulte said on fast money that we have just had exaggerated seasonality this year, i. E. , the weather. I spoke to the ceo of red fin, an online brokerage, and he says no, this is not about the weather, its about affordability. So what about all that pentup demand . The answer to that question is that there must be low demand. Thats what were seeing. So we saw a huge spike in demand last year. Thats why we were so confident that the market had bottomed and were not seeing the same thing this year. Even though there arent many homes for sale, there arent many buyers looking for them, either. Reporter that, he says, is why Mortgage Applications are way down, why existing home sales have been down for four straight months, and why more people are not listing their homes for sale. Kate . Lets send it over to dominic chu for a market flash. Check out shares of eli lily. An experimental cancer drug significantly improved survival rates in lung cancer patients. Some are touting it as the companys next blockbuster drug. The drug has already been shown to be successful in treating stomach cancer and the company is waiting for fda approval to market it for that disease. You can see there, they are currently up on the session. Back to you. Last week, auto workers at volkswagens chattanooga plant said no thanks to joining the uaw. Today, german unions may be striking back and changing the face of the American Auto industry perhaps in the process. Phil, tell us about it. Youre live in chicago. Reporter you know whats interesting about this is that the german auto unions have a lot more influence in germany, especially at vw, than the unions here in the United States. The latest move comes from the german unions, basically it is now threatening vw after the uaw vote. They are essentially saying we are going to fight any further investment by vw in the United States unless the workers in tennessee can have some type of Works Council or reunion representation. Remember, they rejected the uaw by a narrow margin last week. Senator bob corker before that vote made it very clear that vw would expand production, at least that was his understanding, if the uaw was defeated. Now the unions in germany are coming back saying you know what, there aint going to be any more investment in the southern United States unless things change in tennessee. Quick check of whats happening with shares of volkswagen, its been an interesting move over the last six months. Kate . Absolutely. Very tough talk coming out of volkswagen. Another story, this one on airplane manufacturing numbers. What are these numbers telling us . Reporter continued recovery for general aviation. When were talking about here, the turbo props, biz jets. The latest numbers, worldwide shipments up 4. 3 . A nice increase of 24 in billings. The big move has been in turboprops, only a slight increase in business jets. Thats a slight increase from last year. When you look at whats happening in the biz jet market, they are starting to see demand improve. In fact, if you look at the used business jet supply, its dropping around the United States in part because theres greater demand by corporations who are saying you know what, nows the time to get in here and buy one of those used business jets. Take a look at shares of the parent of gulfstream, general dynamics, which has had a very nice move over the last year. Kate . Thanks, phil. Tyler . The violence in ukraine only getting worse today. This is video look at that. Of an armored personnel vehicle coming under attack. Police vehicle. The explosion was caught on tape. We dont have word on the fate of the crew inside but so far, some 25 people have been killed in the clashes. Boxing champion vitale klichenko is urging the 20,000 protesters in kievs Central Square to defend their camp. The violence starting to impact the russian stock market. It was down 3 today. There you see the decline, down 3. 5 over the past week. The bigger Russian Companies fell, those companies doing business in the ukraine and they transport oil and gas throughout the country. The rsx, an etf that trades russian stocks or tracks them, i should say, also lower today as you see there. Kate . Just taking a quick look at the boards, it looks like the dow is looking down for the moment, just slightly down. The s p basically flat, closing perhaps not far from its all time high of 1850 depending if it can hang in there. The nasdaq down just slightly right now as well. Not a terribly exciting day in the markets but a big deal in diamonds. The ceo of Signet Jewelers is with us. Also jane wells on coffees huge spike and what that means for beverage prices. Reporter oh, kate. Coffee. I can never stay mad at you. Even if i have to take out a mortgage to afford you. Yes, price hikes will make you jittery. Well explain in two minutes. [ male announcer ] we dont just certify our preowned vehicles. We inspect, analyze, and recondition each one, until its nothing short of a genuine certified preowned mercedesbenz for the next new owner. [ car alarm chirps ] hurry in to the mercedesbenz certified preowned sales event. Visit today for exceptional offers. If you have a business idea, we have a personalized legal solution thats right for you. With easy stepbystep guidance, were here to help you turn your dream into a reality. Start your Business Today with legalzoom. Welcome back to power lunch. A small down day for the market overall but a tough day for steel makers in the u. S. Led by u. S. Steel. This after the department of commerce declined to impose tariffs or taxes on south korean steel pipes. That sent u. S. Steel, ak steel, northwest pipe and ternium to the downside. Those very much in focus. Back over to you. Speaking of focus, one thing gets my focus going, its coffee in the morning. Prices of the beans are up 57 in three months over supply concerns arising down in brazil. Jane wells covering the story from l. A. Jane . Reporter blame it on rio, tyler. Brazil is the name of the game when it comes to coffee, one broker tells dow jones, and the weather has been too hot and too dry at a critical time for the development of the coffee crop. This the worlds number one coffee producing country. A futures making another strong run today. You saw that awhile ago. Where are they right now . Yeah. Over 1. 68 a pound. This on top of the biggest jump in prices yesterday since 2004. Price vs shot up this year after a nice steady decline during most of 2013. Some expect futures could hit 2 a pound until traders get a better idea of how the weather is playing out. The wall street journal reports 10 of the crop in brazil may not be salvageable at this point. One third of the worlds coffee comes from brazil and 2014 has been the driest so far in three decades. You can see how the coffee retailers are faring. If the crop turns out to be significantly reduced, this will impact them once they start contracting again in the next few months, then eventually it will impact you and certainly impact me. Kate . Thanks so much, jane. Its a gem of a deal and certainly the big deal of the day. Signet jewelers valuing zale at 1. 4 billion, including the assumption of debt. The combined company will have 3600 stores in north america and the uk. The ceo of signet, michael barnes, is here with us for an exclusive interview from dallas. Thank you so much. Great to have you on the show. Thank you for having me on the show. I appreciate it. Congratulations on the deal. I wanted to ask you, you guys came under a bit of pressure within the last month or two, hoping you would put a little more of the cash on your Balance Sheet to work. I was wondering to what degree that played any sort of role in your decision to buy zale. Well, that didnt play any role in the decision to make an offer for zale. We have been working on this for quite a few months now. There have been a lot of great people on both sides that have worked very hard on this deal. A lot of the things that our shareholders bring to our attention, are things that we really believe we need to listen to very carefully, and thats what we have done over time. We are one of the great things about this deal is we are going to be able to utilize a very strong Balance Sheet to make this happen very effectively and very efficiently, and i believe that thats what most of our shareholders want to see from us. The utilization and optimization of our Balance Sheet and our ability to grow our business and theres Nothing Better than investing back into the main core business that you own. I wanted to ask you, jewelry sales were one of the strong spots in the Holiday Retail season during the Fourth Quarter of last year. To what do you attribute that strength and do you expect that it will continue in 2014 or even out to 15 . Well, i think that jewelry is a fantastic category. Its a very strong category. It has been for many, many years. People love jewelry. You cant argue with that. They are going to buy it year in and year out. Both for occasions and just for to show love. They really want to go out there and express the sentiment of love and be able to celebrate their life, and thats really what its all about. We want to give them the opportunity to do that. We believe by making a strategic acquisition, a transformational acquisition such as this, that we are going to be able to give our customers much better innovation by doing more research and development and ultimately it will lead to more choices for them. Coming up with the products that they love best. We got to go in a second but im just curious, what did you yourself give as valentines gifts . Did it involve jewelry . It did involve jewelry. You know, he goes to jared and he goes to kay. Every kiss begins with kay. Pretty soon he will be visiting the diamond store, zale. Well, thank you very much, michael barnes, for joining us today. Congratulations on the deal. Tyler, over to you. Thank you for your time. Hows the russian how do they build an entire city for the olympics . Find out coming up. Coming up, power pitch. Flu season hasnt melted away just yet and this startup believes it has the cure to track and stop the spread of disease. Just by taking your temperature. This is the worlds smartest thermometer. We need to know whether or not we are in or out. Up late. Thinking up gamechanging ideas, like this dozens of tax free z